Archmonoth Posted August 23, 2021 Share Posted August 23, 2021 (edited) 22 hours ago, Patrick Geryl said: Clarification: 1. You need a relevant sunspot formula, meaning with Mercury or Venus in the formula. 2. You need long alignments with Mercury or Venus to 'GROW' this sunspot. THIS WILL ALSO GROW THE OTHER SUNSPOTS OR KEEP THEM LONGER ALIVE. The next day they reduced/shrunk, and typing in caps doesn't make predictions more accurate. Edited August 24, 2021 by Archmonoth 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian Halls Posted August 25, 2021 Share Posted August 25, 2021 (edited) On 8/23/2021 at 9:35 AM, helios said: It's more like rolling dice. Sea surface temperature is actually correlated with severe weather. But planetary alignment has not found to be correlated with solar activity. There is no evidence for that as of today, despite decades of comprehensive data being available for everyone to look back to. Before making predictions concerning the future, one could easily validate their theory on data from the past. Agreed. All a bit reminiscent of the 'Jupiter Effect' that was all the rage in the 1970's. Most of the mass of the solar system - 99.8% - is in the Sun. The masses/gravitational effects of Mercury, Venus and any other body in the solar system are infinitesimal by comparison. Sunspots are caused by disruptions in the convoluted distortions of the solar magnetic field. The largest body to exert such disturbances on these magnetic fields is the body of the Sun itself. I have been observing this morning the new sunspot group AR2860 evolving on the face of the Sun. I have no doubt in my mind that this active area is the result of solar activity within the Sun - not a - and I am sorry to say this - a pseudo-scientific explanation of alignment of distant solar system objects. Edited August 25, 2021 by Brian Halls removed mystical for pseudo-scientific 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3gMike Posted August 25, 2021 Share Posted August 25, 2021 On 8/23/2021 at 5:04 AM, Patrick Geryl said: I don't know where the sunspots will be formed. If on the Farside, no amplification in the Flux to be seen on this side! Read that again... Patrick, Why is it that you do not know on what side the sunspots will arise? Your theory is apparently based on Sun's magnetic field coupling with, and being "loaded" by, the aligned planets. You must know where the planets are in relation to the Sun, therefore you should also know on which side the coupling takes place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick P.A. Geryl Posted August 26, 2021 Author Share Posted August 26, 2021 8 uren geleden, 3gMike zei: Patrick, Why is it that you do not know on what side the sunspots will arise? Your theory is apparently based on Sun's magnetic field coupling with, and being "loaded" by, the aligned planets. You must know where the planets are in relation to the Sun, therefore you should also know on which side the coupling takes place. Good question. You have the formula from sunspot 2860. Who can find why it appeared there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3gMike Posted August 26, 2021 Share Posted August 26, 2021 (edited) 3 hours ago, Patrick Geryl said: You have the formula from sunspot 2860. Who can find why it appeared there? Is it easier to predict the location using this https://www.theplanetstoday.com/ or this Edited August 26, 2021 by 3gMike added link to planet locations 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick P.A. Geryl Posted August 26, 2021 Author Share Posted August 26, 2021 (edited) 14 uren geleden, 3gMike zei: Is it easier to predict the location using this https://www.theplanetstoday.com/ or this Mmmm This is not a real program, but I think I got it! The opposition Mercury-Ceres -Uranus and the Triples Mercury - Earth - Neptune - Pallas give a sunspot on the left side from the Sun on August 24 as viewed from Earth! Christopher do you agree? WOOWWW BREAKTHROUGH Edited August 27, 2021 by Patrick Geryl Opposition instead of conjunction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted August 26, 2021 Share Posted August 26, 2021 You are jumping to conclusions waaaaaaaaaaaay to early. I post things a little early sometimes with my research, but it is after pass after pass after pass through data of many events. I still go through the data afterwards again and again even if I do post it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3gMike Posted August 26, 2021 Share Posted August 26, 2021 8 hours ago, Patrick Geryl said: Mmmm This is not a real program, but I think I got it! The conjunction Mercury-Ceres -Uranus and the Triples Mercury - Earth - Neptune - Pallas give a sunspot on the left side from the Sun on August 24 as viewed from Earth! Christopher do you agree? WOOWWW BREAKTHROUGH Patrick, You say this is not a real program. In that case can you recommend a real one? You have gone from saying that you do not know on which side of the sun a sunspot will arise to giving a formula that places a sunspot on the left side as viewed from Earth - what caused that change of view? Can you please clarify why you need the asteroids / dwarf planet in the Triple line ups, and how much they contribute to the overall effect? How did you choose which ones to include? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Archmonoth Posted August 26, 2021 Share Posted August 26, 2021 (edited) 14 hours ago, 3gMike said: Is it easier to predict the location using this https://www.theplanetstoday.com/ or this Topology with +/- make sense to me for prediction, Patrick's ideas do not. I think the planets (even Jupiter) are too distant for the impact he is suggesting. Edited August 26, 2021 by Archmonoth 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick P.A. Geryl Posted August 27, 2021 Author Share Posted August 27, 2021 4 uren geleden, 3gMike zei: Patrick, You say this is not a real program. In that case can you recommend a real one? You have gone from saying that you do not know on which side of the sun a sunspot will arise to giving a formula that places a sunspot on the left side as viewed from Earth - what caused that change of view? Can you please clarify why you need the asteroids / dwarf planet in the Triple line ups, and how much they contribute to the overall effect? How did you choose which ones to include? There is no official program with which you can make these calculations. The existing programs are to complicated to work with. change of view: you can see by yourself that the sunspot appears on the side of Mercury… Mercury is 4 times in the formula… dwarf planets: I will remake my paper and put it on Researchgate again with the clarifications why needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3gMike Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 7 hours ago, Patrick Geryl said: There is no official program with which you can make these calculations. The existing programs are to complicated to work with. change of view: you can see by yourself that the sunspot appears on the side of Mercury… Mercury is 4 times in the formula… dwarf planets: I will remake my paper and put it on Researchgate again with the clarifications why needed. I will be interested to see your updated paper. Something else you might like to consider at the same time: The long line up Neptune/Pallas/Mercury (19 to 29th August) was at all times aligned across the face of the Sun. Secondly, the sun completed a bit more than a third of a rotation in that period. How can you then say that you are able to relate the location of any particular sunspot to that alignment? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick P.A. Geryl Posted August 27, 2021 Author Share Posted August 27, 2021 13 minuten geleden, 3gMike zei: I will be interested to see your updated paper. Something else you might like to consider at the same time: The long line up Neptune/Pallas/Mercury (19 to 29th August) was at all times aligned across the face of the Sun. Secondly, the sun completed a bit more than a third of a rotation in that period. How can you then say that you are able to relate the location of any particular sunspot to that alignment? You have the formula. Try to figure it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3gMike Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 6 minutes ago, Patrick Geryl said: You have the formula. Try to figure it out. What formula? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian Halls Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 As a regular solar observer (like many here, no doubt) if you look at previous monthly sunspot number reports for a given period it can be seen that sunspot activity can appear (short term) in semi regular periods. The Sun rotates in approximately 27 days - the equator rotates at a faster rate than higher solar latitudes by a day or two - so the figure I have given is a mean. The result of this is that magnetically disturbed areas that cause sunspots and other active areas will come around at approximately the same time each month (over a short period - say several months) before the active area decays. There have been several studies into the longitudinal distribution of sunspots. The cause is inside the Sun and does not require external forces. Attached image is of region AR2860 from the 25th - seeing was poor unfortunately. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newbie Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 Brian I agree with everything you have posted in this forum. The Sun's interior is responsible for sunspots not some planetary alignments. It reminds me of another thread that Earthquakes are caused by sunspots. The fact that tectonic plates shift due to forces within the Earth, one plate sliding on top of the other, buckling the surface of the Earth was overlooked. Both Ignoring the elephant in the room! Newbie 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christopher S. Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 (edited) 2 hours ago, Newbie said: Brian I agree with everything you have posted in this forum. The Sun's interior is responsible for sunspots not some planetary alignments. It reminds me of another thread that Earthquakes are caused by sunspots. The fact that tectonic plates shift due to forces within the Earth, one plate sliding on top of the other, buckling the surface of the Earth was overlooked. I feel that I have to step in to remind everyone of the issue with oversimplifications. In a previous example, I likened Patrick's approach here to tropical cyclone formation forecasting based solely on SST data. The reason for this should be self-evident: there is some component of reality that makes this rational - at least versus mysticism and wildly supernatural predictions(explanations that can be neither proven nor disproven). The component of reality I am referring to - in order to be clear about which aspects I believe to be based in potential fact - is that magnetic portals are an ongoing focus of relatively recent research and scrutiny. Their occurrences are just nearly tangential enough to the basis of Patrick's hypothesis about alignments and conjunctions - the mechanism here was always proposed by him to be magnetic, not astrological. There very well may be something here, acting in a way that Patrick has not yet accurately described. Despite his initial belief that he had discovered and learned something, he instead has discovered more depth to that which we do not know. We should thank him for that, at the very least. Just add it to the list of things to check later on down the road when we have better equipment and a better understanding of planetary-scale magnetic interactions. And therein begins the issue with oversimplification; Instead of talking him down(being typical on a forum), you can use the information and research he's put out into "action" and find the mathematical or fundamental mistakes, thus improving, disproving, etc. instead of stonewalling based on the oversimplification put forth. It becomes a subject, and whether it is loosely or firmly rooted, it is a train of thought and discovery not yet traveled. Although, yes, I see where the astrological parallels can be made. This is obviously a secular endeavor, mind you all. I am aware that cooperation is a two-way street and that he's not being very cooperative in answering or considering some of the real questions or rhetorical ones put forth against his research. He's been challenged and hasn't adequately answered - that might mean he simply can't answer you yet and antagonizing him is just going to put a negative association onto this research he's doing. This to me is counter-intuitive for productivity in the realm of ongoing research, and I again implore you folk - not to single any one person out as there are several comments from several people - to take a less subjective stance or no stance at all if you aren't looking to be constructive. And just to explain why I feel the need to say this: The most common killer of thoughts and ideas is not contentious ideology, but simply behavior; something that can be easily corrected and controlled. A tragedy unfolding before our very eyes, this. Edited August 27, 2021 by Christopher S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Archmonoth Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 (edited) 55 minutes ago, Christopher S. said: This to me is counter-intuitive for productivity in the realm of ongoing research, and I again implore you folk - not to single any one person out as there are several comments from several people - to take a less subjective stance or no stance at all if you aren't looking to be constructive. If I am included in this "everyone" I would like to point out, multiple people have tried to ask higher resolution questions of Patrick, only to be ignored or dismissed. Proof of contradiction is enough to begin looking in other directions. 8 hours ago, Brian Halls said: There have been several studies into the longitudinal distribution of sunspots. The cause is inside the Sun and does not require external forces. To add to your statement: I think the 5 year solar cycle displays this, since there are plenty of planetary conjunctions when there are low/no sunspot activity periods. 3 hours ago, Newbie said: The Sun's interior is responsible for sunspots not some planetary alignments. It reminds me of another thread that Earthquakes are caused by sunspots. The fact that tectonic plates shift due to forces within the Earth, one plate sliding on top of the other, buckling the surface of the Earth was overlooked. ..and you will still find people thinking the Sun affects earthquakes.. Edited August 27, 2021 by Archmonoth 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newbie Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 (edited) Science requires that predictions are able to be tested. The failure of Mr Geryl's prior predictions has not helped perception of his research. Similarly, previous outrageous claims have not helped his credibility. Re simplicity: I would rather explain things in simple terms that would engage as many people as possible. Christopher S. I am glad that you havs reconciled your differences with Patrick and are a part, once again, of his threads. Let brotherly love continue.. ... the point is that in the beginning we were given table upon table of predictions to mull over. That air of mysticism hung over this thread with no explanation of the chance of when these predictions would occur. Sure we all look at weather apps to see if it's going to rain or whatever, we accept these as predictions but if we see the chance of rain is 80% 5-10 mls we bring the washing in. We find time to time that the weather bureau gets it wrong, we accept that. SWPC gives us the chance of a C, M or X class flare occurring. No flare occurs - we accept that. This is what Patrick didn't provide. Only that a sunspot was going to appear on these particular days and a reference to planetary alignments on those days. So yes it did/does sound like pie in the sky stuff. Edited August 28, 2021 by Newbie Spelling 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick P.A. Geryl Posted August 28, 2021 Author Share Posted August 28, 2021 22 uren geleden, 3gMike zei: What formula? Mike, It should be this one. So my question: Can somebody figure out why it was on the Farside? The alignment is almost gone, so not much will remain of the sunspot. August 21 (12:45) August 11 (22:45) – 21 (04:15), 2021: Opposition Mars - Neptune across the Sun? August 19 (21:15) – 29 (08:30), 2021 Triple Line Up Neptune – Pallas - Mercury If it is related to the opposition then where would it have shown up? Remark: Sunspot 2860 was on the Mercury side of the opposition For the believers that it is induced within the Sun, I have found the sunspot theory. You can calculate at least a dozen findings about the Sun with it. I don't have the computer skills to make the dynamic approach. So if you are smart enough, a Noble Prize is waiting for you. Mind: I did send it to the Astrophysical Journal and the answer was that they are inclined to publish it if the dynamic approach is solved. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/329023855_A_New_Mathematical_and_Physical_Principle_to_Combine_Gravitation_with_Rotating_Oscillating_Magnetic_Fields_A_unifying_algorithm_that_solves_the_Sun's_differential_rotation_problem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Archmonoth Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 (edited) I was going to ask Patrick questions... but I think this horse is beat enough. Edited August 28, 2021 by Archmonoth Please delete post adds nothing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newbie Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 Patrick when you say not much will remain of that sunspot are you referencing 2860? The sunspot that just launched an M4.7 baby and probably long endurance CME? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian Halls Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 16 hours ago, Christopher S. said: And therein begins the issue with oversimplification; Instead of talking him down(being typical on a forum), you can use the information and research he's put out into "action" and find the mathematical or fundamental mistakes, thus improving, disproving, etc. instead of stonewalling based on the oversimplification put forth. It becomes a subject, and whether it is loosely or firmly rooted, it is a train of thought and discovery not yet traveled. Although, yes, I see where the astrological parallels can be made. This is obviously a secular endeavor, mind you all. If we apply Occam's Razor to the problem - the simplest answer is the correct answer - well established observation and study of sunspot behaviour proves the present theories - not Patrick's convoluted ideas. Over simplification is not stonewalling - it can prove fundamental facts. Patrick's theory is already disproved by scientific observation as many have already stated here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick P.A. Geryl Posted August 28, 2021 Author Share Posted August 28, 2021 1 uur terug, Newbie zei: Patrick when you say not much will remain of that sunspot are you referencing 2860? The sunspot that just launched an M4.7 baby and probably long endurance CME? Sunspot 2860 August 24, 2021/ Southern Hemisphere August 23 - 24 August 23 (18:00) – 25 (02:00), 2021: Opposition Mercury - Uranus across the Sun August 23 (19:00) – 26 (08:00), 2021 Triple Line Up Mercury - Earth – Neptune August 24 (04:45) – 26 (11:00), 2021 Triple Line Up Mercury - Earth – Pallas August 23 (19:00) – 26 (08:00), 2021 Triple Line Up Mercury - Earth – Neptune August 24 (21:30) – 26 (08:30), 2021: Opposition Mercury - Ceres across the Sun Alignments active (August 30) August 3 (05:15)- September 3 (07:00), 2021 Triple Line Up Saturn - Jupiter – Ceres August 8 (06:30) – September 3 (17:15), 2021 Triple Line Up Pluto – Pallas - Ceres August 17 (17:00) – September 4 (19:15), 2021 Triple Line Up Neptune – Pallas - Earth August 18 (07:15) – September 1 (22:15), 2021 Triple Line Up Uranus – Ceres – Vesta August 19 (21:15) – 29 (08:30), 2021 Triple Line Up Neptune – Pallas - Mercury August 24 (21:30) – 28 (05:15), 2021 Triple Line Up Chiron - Earth – Venus August 28 (08:30)- September 14 (14:15), 2021 Triple Line Up Pluto – Juno – Mars August 28 (14:15) – September 13 (17:15), 2021 Triple Line Up Neptune – Pallas – Mars August 29 (22:15) – September 3 (10:15), 2021 Triple Line Up Mars - Earth – Pallas August 30 (17:45) – September 5 (17:30), 2021 Triple Line Up Mars - Earth – Neptune Conclusion: The Triple August 19 (21:15) – 29 (08:30), 2021 Triple Line Up Neptune – Pallas - Mercury Ends on August 29. No big new alignments coming. Downgrade sunspot 2860 depending from flaring, otherwise from late August 29 14 minuten geleden, Brian Halls zei: If we apply Occam's Razor to the problem - the simplest answer is the correct answer - well established observation and study of sunspot behaviour proves the present theories - not Patrick's convoluted ideas. Over simplification is not stonewalling - it can prove fundamental facts. Patrick's theory is already disproved by scientific observation as many have already stated here. Correctly predicted sunspot 2860 as the biggest alignment for this month. Follow the next days... Downgrade in complexity... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian Halls Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 (edited) 2 hours ago, Patrick Geryl said: Correctly predicted sunspot 2860 as the biggest alignment for this month. Follow the next days... Downgrade in complexity... Sorry but this proves nothing. AR 2860 first appeared 24/25 and has evolved since. It will decay, surprise, surprise because that is what sunspot groups do after they have spent themselves out do, though they can last for several solar rotations as we have seen in the past in other solar cycles. AR2860 may last until it has rotated onto the face of the Sun in about 20 days or so - the spots might not be there but a plage area could still mark where it was. Again, this is based upon observation. It may even erupt again. The 'predictions' are opaque enough for you claim a 'success' when the facts fit your theory and be safely ignored if nothing happens. The masses of the planetary bodies shown are too small to effect solar behaviour. Edited August 28, 2021 by Brian Halls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newbie Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 Patrick when did you predict this would be the biggest sunspot group of the month? First time I have seen this particular combination highlighted in red is today, 5 hours ago. The first time you made reference to this date is on page 4 of this forum, nothing of note about the dates 19 - 29 Aug, coloured in black, apart from having a triple attributed to it. You wrote in an earlier reference that triples containing Mercury and Venus produce large sunspot groups. For others containing Mercury without Venus or vice-versa, we can expect small sunspot groups. Now you say, as of 5 hours ago, you have predicted the biggest sunspot group and highlighted Mercury-Pallas-Neptune in red for the first time after it had produced an M4.7 flare. Seeing how quickly 2860 developed to become Beta-Gamma it's not surprising it's the biggest sunspot group in August. If I am at fault by pointing this out then I apologise to you because I mean no ill will towards you. Newbie 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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