Patrick P.A. Geryl Posted August 31, 2021 Author Share Posted August 31, 2021 (edited) Op 28/8/2021 om 11:02, Patrick Geryl zei: Sunspot 2860 August 24, 2021/ Southern Hemisphere August 23 - 24 August 23 (18:00) – 25 (02:00), 2021: Opposition Mercury - Uranus across the Sun August 23 (19:00) – 26 (08:00), 2021 Triple Line Up Mercury - Earth – Neptune August 24 (04:45) – 26 (11:00), 2021 Triple Line Up Mercury - Earth – Pallas August 23 (19:00) – 26 (08:00), 2021 Triple Line Up Mercury - Earth – Neptune August 24 (21:30) – 26 (08:30), 2021: Opposition Mercury - Ceres across the Sun Alignments active (August 30) August 3 (05:15)- September 3 (07:00), 2021 Triple Line Up Saturn - Jupiter – Ceres August 8 (06:30) – September 3 (17:15), 2021 Triple Line Up Pluto – Pallas - Ceres August 17 (17:00) – September 4 (19:15), 2021 Triple Line Up Neptune – Pallas - Earth August 18 (07:15) – September 1 (22:15), 2021 Triple Line Up Uranus – Ceres – Vesta August 19 (21:15) – 29 (08:30), 2021 Triple Line Up Neptune – Pallas - Mercury August 24 (21:30) – 28 (05:15), 2021 Triple Line Up Chiron - Earth – Venus August 28 (08:30)- September 14 (14:15), 2021 Triple Line Up Pluto – Juno – Mars August 28 (14:15) – September 13 (17:15), 2021 Triple Line Up Neptune – Pallas – Mars August 29 (22:15) – September 3 (10:15), 2021 Triple Line Up Mars - Earth – Pallas August 30 (17:45) – September 5 (17:30), 2021 Triple Line Up Mars - Earth – Neptune Conclusion: The Triple August 19 (21:15) – 29 (08:30), 2021 Triple Line Up Neptune – Pallas - Mercury Ends on August 29. No big new alignments coming. Downgrade sunspot 2860 depending from flaring, otherwise from late August 29 Correctly predicted sunspot 2860 as the biggest alignment for this month. Follow the next days... Downgrade in complexity... Repost of my conclusion... Conclusion: The Triple August 19 (21:15) – 29 (08:30), 2021 Triple Line Up Neptune – Pallas - Mercury Ends on August 29. No big new alignments coming. Downgrade sunspot 2860 depending from flaring, otherwise from late August 29 Correctly predicted sunspot 2860 as the biggest alignment for this month. Follow the next days... Downgrade in complexity... Result: Sunspot 2860 On August 28, 23:45 Sunspot 2860 on August 29, 23:45 Region 12860 [S27W24] decayed with only a small magnetic delta structure remaining on the northern edge of an intermediate penumbra. Minor M class flares are still possible. We checked all the alignments from this formula for the remainder of September 2021. Our conclusion was that there wil not be big activity on the Farside and that the sunspot still will be active when it turns up again on this side. Stay tuned! Op 28/8/2021 om 15:51, Newbie zei: Patrick when did you predict this would be the biggest sunspot group of the month? First time I have seen this particular combination highlighted in red is today, 5 hours ago. The first time you made reference to this date is on page 4 of this forum, nothing of note about the dates 19 - 29 Aug, coloured in black, apart from having a triple attributed to it. You wrote in an earlier reference that triples containing Mercury and Venus produce large sunspot groups. For others containing Mercury without Venus or vice-versa, we can expect small sunspot groups. Now you say, as of 5 hours ago, you have predicted the biggest sunspot group and highlighted Mercury-Pallas-Neptune in red for the first time after it had produced an M4.7 flare. Seeing how quickly 2860 developed to become Beta-Gamma it's not surprising it's the biggest sunspot group in August. If I am at fault by pointing this out then I apologise to you because I mean no ill will towards you. Newbie See earlier post from 3gMike and see my response on August 17. Edited August 31, 2021 by Patrick Geryl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian Halls Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 I wish I could play my UK lottery numbers like this - play one set of 6 numbers and when none of them come up alter my ticket and claim the prize! I will look on with interest about mid September if AR2860 returns - nothing to do with Patrick's predictions - it is (as I have written before) something that magnetically complex groups like this region do! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newbie Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 Patrick thanks for your reply. Just by way of clarification: Firstly you are saying there will be no big far side activity during Sepember, big meaning M and X flares I take it? Although the flares cannot be measured they can be evidenced by CME's in Lasco images if they are near enough to the limbs and eruptive. Secondly you are saying that sunspot 2860 will traverse the far side and reappear as an active sunspot group? Finally you are predicting nothing out of the ordinary for the Earth facing Sun in September meaning what? Sunspot activity low C flare, nothing higher? Ok, we'll see. Re 3gMikes comments: he is probably the best one to respond here. Newbie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Archmonoth Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 (edited) Is the Aug 19th line up the suggested cause of the Aug 27-29 sun spot 2860 activity? Alright.. when has this line up happened before? Are there other times a sunspot behaved like this during a similar line upline up? You are right at the cusp of testing... Your predictions were increased sun spot activity. Do you mean more sun spots, or complex sun spots, or more flares? This is a higher resolution question which could mean different things from a vague prediction. So I tried answering my own questions.. Apparently the barycenter of the Sun (the wobble) is related to planetary alignments, sun cycles, and sun spots in a paper published in 2018: The case study for the barycenter drivers of the solar cycle (1).pdf (uvs-model.com) Patrick has some of the puzzle pieces with alignments, but not the barycenter. If it is magnetically connected, as Patrick is suggesting, the range of the magnetic affects would be insufficient to affect/reach other bodies. The Earth's magnetic field is in a radius from our core, and wouldn't extend to Jupiter for example. Patrick, if this is not the case I would love some clarification. Edited August 31, 2021 by Archmonoth Added link for barycenter connection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hvemnd Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 (edited) Made an account just to comment. It seems like this would be something fun to test using AI. I don't have access to the paper so maybe I'm missing something. I understand the mass of the planets wouldn't allow a significant impact on the sun but what if there was a correlation between the oppositional magnetic forces of the sun causing flux transfer events overlapping and creating charged points in the primordial galaxy to catalysize the birth of the planets which may be synced into a harmonic resonance with the sun's rotational forces. These points would be inverse to the Lagrangian gravity of our solar system. I don't have access to the paper but agree you'd need much more data and even then the algorithm would be horrendously obfuscated by time if it did exist but I could definitely try and make a prediction model in Tensorflow or something because I think the whole concept of astrology being real in some scientific sense is pretty funny and we should use the technology available to us to find them. Copernicus made observations of the stars and was able to understand a great deal from them with creative thinking and while I don't think there will be a correlation necessarily, the universe is surprising and it's worth my time to test for surprising correlations. Worst case scenario, I hone my coding skills and disprove a hypothesis. I'll update with my findings. Feel free to message if anyone would like to collaborate. Edited August 31, 2021 by hvemnd typo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christopher S. Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 37 minutes ago, hvemnd said: and creating charged points in the primordial galaxy to catalysize the birth of the planets which may be synced into a harmonic resonance with the sun's roational forces. You had me up until this point. I like what you're suggesting, but the above quoted sentence implies a pseudo-scientific belief of how planetary systems and stars are formed. The component is almost entirely gravitational, with the remainder being mass available to be accumulated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Archmonoth Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 (edited) 1 hour ago, hvemnd said: Made an account just to comment. It seems like this would be something fun to test using AI. I don't have access to the paper so maybe I'm missing something. I understand the mass of the planets wouldn't allow a significant impact on the sun They do, via the barycenter. 1 hour ago, hvemnd said: but what if there was a correlation between the oppositional magnetic forces of the sun causing flux transfer events overlapping and creating charged points in the primordial galaxy to catalysize the birth of the planets which may be synced into a harmonic resonance with the sun's roational forces The harmonization I think you are describing is usually called mass. So the mass of things is gathered, which could be described as the negative curvature of atomic resonance. (guesswork) Jupiter for example uses its moons to resonate tidal forces. Resonations, like harmony are an unstable state, meaning that when the angular momentum is dissipated through the system, the harmony disappears quickly. Once terrestrial objects achieve hydrostatic equilibrium, their own mass can hold together without outside forces, this is when a sub set becomes its own set. (set theory description, personal opinion) Orbital resonance - Wikipedia Rotational forces, or frequency will cause a wobble with the horizon (accretion disc) if the spin is not symmetrical. 1 hour ago, hvemnd said: . These points would be inverse to the Lagrangian gravity of our solar system. I don't have access to the paper but agree you'd need much more data and even then the algorithm would be horrendously obfuscated by time if it did exist but I could definitely try and make a prediction model in Tensorflow Metric tensors are useful, but require complete information. I agree the AI/computer doing calculations or simulations would be highly advantageous. 1 hour ago, hvemnd said: or something because I think the whole concept of astrology being real in some scientific sense is pretty funny and we should use the technology available to us to find them. Copernicus made observations of the stars and was able to understand a great deal from them with creative thinking and while I don't think there will be a correlation necessarily, the universe is surprising and it's worth my time to test for surprising correlations. Worst case scenario, I hone my coding skills and disprove a hypothesis. I'll update with my findings. Feel free to message if anyone would like to collaborate. Awesome, keep that furnace firing! Looking to prove an idea incorrect is a great direction to head. Edited August 31, 2021 by Archmonoth 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hvemnd Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 26 minutes ago, Christopher S. said: You had me up until this point. I like what you're suggesting, but the above quoted sentence implies a pseudo-scientific belief of how planetary systems and stars are formed. The component is almost entirely gravitational, with the remainder being mass available to be accumulated. Accumulated through cohesion supplied by the weak electrostatic force, yes that was prevailing theory but new simulations have shown that magnetism was a key ingredient and helped solve some of the stuff about overcoming the solar pressure that would have blown gas away. Reference: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41550-020-01297-6 I agree it sounds pseudo-scientific and I'm not very articulate but I need an exercise since I'm learning some new concepts with machine learning and this would be fun. Reminds me of that paper about solar genome equivalents, non-sensical but fun to think about and do calculations. I can't find reference atm 43 minutes ago, Archmonoth said: Metric tensors are useful, but require complete information. I agree the AI/computer doing calculations or simulations would be highly advantageous. Awesome, keep that furnace firing! Looking to prove an idea incorrect is a great direction to head. Metric tensors require complete information for a model that's eternally true but is impossible due to p np, incompleteness stuffs but a model that could predict even 7 days might be possible with partial dataset, kinda like meteorology? Also thanks for your kind words, I'm from a computer science/chemistry background, so way out of my element obviously haha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newbie Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 (edited) 9 hours ago, Archmonoth said: Alright.. when has this line up happened before? Are there other times a sunspot behaved like this during a similar line upline up? You are right at the cusp of testing... A similar question I thought to ask yesterday. Patrick: SWL has an archive page which lists details for the top 50 solar flares. Using your 'formula' can you ascertain what alignments or line ups produced those sunspots? During solar minimum alignments must cease because there are so many spotless days... ... Is this correct? Or to be fair, do you believe that these alignments 'switch on' sunspot production once the Sun 'wakes up' out of solar minimum? Newbie Edited September 1, 2021 by Newbie Fairness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick P.A. Geryl Posted September 1, 2021 Author Share Posted September 1, 2021 (edited) First the alignments with Mercury and Venus for September... No big alignments... Except an interesting one with sunspot 2860... September 1 (12:15) – 5 (04:45), 2021 Triple Line Up Vesta- Venus - Earth September 2 (04:30) – 8 (19:00), 2021 Triple Line Up Mars - Venus - Jupiter September 6 (14:00) – 9 (20:30), 2021 Triple Line Up Mercury - Earth – Chiron September 15 (20:00) - 20 (10:30), 2021 Triple Line Up Neptune - Mercury – Mars September 20 (11:30) - 23 (21:30), 2021 Triple Line Up Pallas - Mercury – Mars September 21 (16:15) – 25 (03:15), 2021 Triple Line Up Venus - Earth – Uranus September 27 (08:00) – October 2 (16:30), 2021 Triple Line Up Mars - Venus - Neptune September 29 (06:00) – October 8 (20:15), 2021 Triple Line Up Neptune – Pallas - Mercury Second All the questions above are already answered on my Researchgate page. THE SUNSPOT CALCULATION PAGE WILL BE UP TOMORROW. For instance the barycentre: This is correlated to the movement of the equatorial magnetic field of the Sun. And that is directly related to the sunspot cycle! Why the movement of the planets directly influences the Sun and other planets is explained with an new mathematical-physics principle. MIND: a 15 year old can easily understand this! https://www.researchgate.net/publication/349806182_A_New_Mathematical-Physics_Principle_for_Differential_Rotating_Bodies Why there is low sunspot activity with full alignments is explained here: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/329023855_A_New_Mathematical_and_Physical_Principle_to_Combine_Gravitation_with_Rotating_Oscillating_Magnetic_Fields_A_unifying_algorithm_that_solves_the_Sun's_differential_rotation_problem So please read them first before you ask questions that need a long explanation. I would appreciate that you do your own research like 3gMike did and correctly predicted the time of sunspot 2860... There is a lot to be found and it doesn't need a super smart brain to find them... Newbie: You think: I place the question from the 50 biggest flares here and Patrick will solve it. Remark: 1 big sunspot requires a month of calculations... Tomorrow I will again put it on Researchgate (how to calculate them). So you can make it by yourself... 50 multiplied with 1 month = 50 months. Good luck. So please: You have everything needed and try to find it yourself. Edited September 1, 2021 by Patrick Geryl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newbie Posted September 1, 2021 Share Posted September 1, 2021 (edited) Patrick: One month is a long time for the analysis of one big sunspot group, agreed, but if it can prove or add weight to your theory isn't it worth it? Surely your calculations work retrospectively, or do they? Most of September is covered by your latest predictions aparat from 9th - 15th and 26th. Almost all bases covered. Please tell me now, which alignment will produce the biggest sunspot group for September or do I have to work it out for myself? Edited September 1, 2021 by Newbie 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick P.A. Geryl Posted September 3, 2021 Author Share Posted September 3, 2021 (edited) Op 31/8/2021 om 19:59, hvemnd zei: . Copernicus made observations of the stars and was able to understand a great deal from them with creative thinking and while I don't think there will be a correlation necessarily, the universe is surprising and it's worth my time to test for surprising correlations. Worst case scenario, I hone my coding skills and disprove a hypothesis. I'll update with my findings. Feel free to message if anyone would like to collaborate. Send me an email. I have the basic code of the sunspot theory. Also need help for a new finding. patrick dot [email protected] Newbie send e-mail and I send you everything Is somebody’s English very good? Need help for rewriting article about an easy to understand new theory about the upcoming strength of solar cycle 25 calculated with 365 days smoothing. You can be co-author if you find something new (I will help). Accuracy better then 5.9 percent! Which is in short phenomenal… beats everything known today by a wide margin… Edited September 3, 2021 by Patrick Geryl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick P.A. Geryl Posted September 5, 2021 Author Share Posted September 5, 2021 (edited) These are the alignments active today September 5 August 28 (08:30)- September 14 (14:15), 2021 Triple Line Up Pluto – Juno – Mars August 28 (14:15) – September 13 (17:15), 2021 Triple Line Up Neptune – Pallas – Mars August 30 (17:45) – September 5 (17:30), 2021 Triple Line Up Mars - Earth – Neptune September 1 (12:15) – 5 (04:45), 2021 Triple Line Up Vesta- Venus - Earth September 2 (04:30) – 8 (19:00), 2021 Triple Line Up Mars - Venus - Jupiter September 5 (14:00) – 7 (17:30), 2021: Conjunction Venus - Juno and the Sun Next alignments (Red = sunspot on Farside, M4.7 flare): September 6 (14:00) – 9 (20:30), 2021 Triple Line Up Mercury - Earth – Chiron September 7 (18:15) – 20 (18:45), 2021: Opposition Vesta - Uranus across the Sun September 9 (11:00) – 12 (16:30), 2021: Conjunction Earth - Pallas and the Sun September 11 (09:30) – 16 (09:15), 2021: Conjunction Earth - Neptune and the Sun September 15 (04:45)- October 15 (01:15), 2021 Triple Line Up Saturn – Pallas – Ceres September 15 (16:00)- November 13 (02:00), 2021 Triple Line Up Neptune - Jupiter – Vesta September 15 (20:00) - 20 (10:30), 2021 Triple Line Up Neptune - Mercury – Mars If my interpretation is right (becomes more complicated)… Sunspot 12863 is related to this Triple (no formula with conjunction or opposition): September 1 (12:15) – 5 (04:45), 2021 Triple Line Up Vesta- Venus - Earth Conclusion: Should go down from tomorrow Sunspot 12864 is related to this Triple: September 2 (04:30) – 8 (19:00), 2021 Triple Line Up Mars - Venus - Jupiter Conclusion: Should make a combination today with: September 5 (14:00) – 7 (17:30), 2021: Conjunction Venus - Juno and the Sun Sunspots 12865, 12866, 12867 and 12868 are “noise” Edited September 5, 2021 by Patrick Geryl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Archmonoth Posted September 5, 2021 Share Posted September 5, 2021 (edited) 11 hours ago, Patrick Geryl said: September 9 (11:00) – 12 (16:30), 2021: Conjunction Earth - Pallas and the Sun September 11 (09:30) – 16 (09:15), 2021: Conjunction Earth - Neptune and the Sun Where do you get these line ups from? What source are you using for this? I see all sorts of line ups here: Planets of our Solar System :: The Planets Today Some additional orientations on Sept 9th and 10th (From Planetstoday)show Saturn and Jupiter pretty close to each other. What qualifies as a line up, or a conjunction? In the September 11th on your claims says Sun, Neptune, Earth. Isn't the Earth and Sun ALWAYS in conjunction with each other, and then with whatever passes by? I would love to get your definitions of line up or conjunction, as well as your sources for where you are seeing theses combinations. I am asking since you highlighted in it red, which I'm not exactly sure what red means. Can you please clarify Patrick? Also what is "noise"? Usually things in quotes mean something other than the word. Ill be watching those 4 sunspots: 12865, 12866, 12867 and 12868 Edited September 5, 2021 by Archmonoth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christopher S. Posted September 6, 2021 Share Posted September 6, 2021 8 hours ago, Archmonoth said: Where do you get these line ups from? What source are you using for this? I see all sorts of line ups here: Planets of our Solar System :: The Planets Today I believe he has mentioned jsOrrery as his viewer of choice. 8 hours ago, Archmonoth said: What qualifies as a line up, or a conjunction? In the September 11th on your claims says Sun, Neptune, Earth. I believe he has also mentioned -/+ 5º deviation from a straight line through three points. Paraphrasing here. Potentially arbitrary value. Those three points must include planets, the Sun, and minor/dwarf planets. I vaguely remember those mentions here: 8 hours ago, Archmonoth said: Isn't the Earth and Sun ALWAYS in conjunction with each other, and then with whatever passes by? This is a basic fundamental principal of physics: You can always draw a straight line between two fixed points in 3-dimensional space(ignoring collision with obstructions). You cannot always draw a straight line through three fixed points. So, everything is in a line with everything else in 2-point pairs. The former is objectively unremarkable, the latter is at least a discussion point. 8 hours ago, Archmonoth said: I am asking since you highlighted in it red, which I'm not exactly sure what red means. Can you please clarify Patrick? Red text indicates the Sun is a point in the line. There's also the rarely seen purple which I take to mean "red but stronger" based on how he has described it(the end of opposition/conjunction, which can take days). 8 hours ago, Archmonoth said: Also what is "noise"? Usually things in quotes mean something other than the word. Quotes can be used as a syntax for emphasis. Bold or Italic do a better job imo. He literally means noise(vs. signal). I know you have also addressed Patrick with these questions, but Current posting patterns have been suggesting for a while now that you're not going to get a long, satisfactory answer to any of your questions Most of the questions directed at him have been ignored, even those by ambivalent or friendly posters Some of these questions are too elementary to be addressed to a single person without also appearing to be asking such rudimentary questions as a way of mocking the intelligence of that individual; I suggest opening your questions up more broadly in the future if you want to avoid this perception The point you're trying to drive home no longer needs to be driven home, it was made several times already(baseless predictions are self-fulfilling anti-prophecies - you needn't pour flammables on lava to heat things up) and we're all pretty much on the same page here(unvetted research and questionable forecast methods = not helpful or even practical). All of us except for one standout, whom we just have to hope re-opens his mind and starts asking questions again. Nobody is forcing it open with rhetoric, here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newbie Posted September 6, 2021 Share Posted September 6, 2021 On 9/3/2021 at 5:07 PM, Patrick Geryl said: Send me an email. I have the basic code of the sunspot theory. Also need help for a new finding. patrick dot [email protected] Newbie send e-mail and I send you everything Hello Patrick: I did go and read over a number of your papers as you suggested, rather than email you. I'm sorry but I couldn't find anything relating to predicting sunspot formation in what I read. More importantly I couldn't find that elusive sunspot formula that you encourage people to use. Your last comment to 3gMike was: "You have the formula work it out", to which 3gMike replied "what formula"? 3gMike produced a table showing the overlapping of planetary lineups with existing sunspot groups. Is this the formula you are referring to? With regards to your English it seems fine. Nothing that proof reading wouldn't fix. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Archmonoth Posted September 6, 2021 Share Posted September 6, 2021 36 minutes ago, Christopher S. said: I believe he has mentioned jsOrrery as his viewer of choice. Thanks, and good to know. 36 minutes ago, Christopher S. said: I believe he has also mentioned -/+ 5º deviation from a straight line through three points. Paraphrasing here. Potentially arbitrary value. Those three points must include planets, the Sun, and minor/dwarf planets. I vaguely remember those mentions here: Thanks again for the reference. To me, 5 degrees seems like it would include all sorts of combinations, especially at larger AU distances. 36 minutes ago, Christopher S. said: This is a basic fundamental principal of physics: You can always draw a straight line between two fixed points in 3-dimensional space(ignoring collision with obstructions). You cannot always draw a straight line through three fixed points. So, everything is in a line with everything else in 2-point pairs. The former is objectively unremarkable, the latter is at least a discussion point. A straight line doesn't mean +/- 5 degrees. 36 minutes ago, Christopher S. said: Red text indicates the Sun is a point in the line. There's also the rarely seen purple which I take to mean "red but stronger" based on how he has described it(the end of opposition/conjunction, which can take days). Thanks, a legend for the colors would be helpful to know exactly what the post means. I imagine someone who hasn't explored previous posts will be asking this question again in the future. I appreciate your effort in answering this for Patrick. 36 minutes ago, Christopher S. said: Quotes can be used as a syntax for emphasis. Bold or Italic do a better job imo. He literally means noise(vs. signal). They can, but Patrick has asked for help co-authoring in English. I asked for a clarification, and I agree quotes can mean more than a single meaning. Using precise language for categorizing 4 existing sunspots, when you are also predicting in the same post, seems like a easy fix for avoiding miscommunication. 36 minutes ago, Christopher S. said: I know you have also addressed Patrick with these questions, but Current posting patterns have been suggesting for a while now that you're not going to get a long, satisfactory answer to any of your questions I have no problem being unsatisfied, and I will try to find new ways of asking the questions. 36 minutes ago, Christopher S. said: Most of the questions directed at him have been ignored, even those by ambivalent or friendly posters Perhaps this illustrates something about Patrick? 36 minutes ago, Christopher S. said: Some of these questions are too elementary to be addressed to a single person without also appearing to be asking such rudimentary questions as a way of mocking the intelligence of that individual; I suggest opening your questions up more broadly in the future if you want to avoid this perception Yet you answered them pretty easy, thanks. Everyone on this site seems pretty open to answering elementary questions. Even people who ask questions about Mars colonization, crystals and light seem to have no issues with elementary answers to questions, it's one of the reason this site is active. 36 minutes ago, Christopher S. said: All of us except for one standout, whom we just have to hope re-opens his mind and starts asking questions again. Nobody is forcing it open with rhetoric, here. I don't know what this statement means, who stands out? Are you talking about Patrick? I would love some more details on what this statement is about. I don't wish to argue, I wish to understand. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newbie Posted September 6, 2021 Share Posted September 6, 2021 1 hour ago, Christopher S. said: All of us except for one standout, whom we just have to hope re-opens his mind and starts asking questions again. Nobody is forcing it open with rhetoric, here. His, not hers - gets me off the hook! Hehehe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christopher S. Posted September 6, 2021 Share Posted September 6, 2021 17 minutes ago, Archmonoth said: A straight line doesn't mean +/- 5 degrees. You can draw median or mean lines through/between individual barycenters(the points) with consideration to relative 3-D space, including the total mass and fields of the objects as an area by which to define the points of the median or mean line. That's supposed to be the visualization that simplifies the concept, but... Draw a line from a center point to two random other points. Measure the two angles. Their distance from 180º is the deviation in this 2-D example. In relative space, there are a myriad of other angles, and those can be taken into consideration as well. I suppose it is Patrick's choice to include those other angles, or simplify it as points in 2-D space. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Archmonoth Posted September 6, 2021 Share Posted September 6, 2021 (edited) 12 hours ago, Christopher S. said: You can draw median or mean lines through/between individual barycenters(the points) with consideration to relative 3-D space, including the total mass and fields of the objects as an area by which to define the points of the median or mean line. That's supposed to be the visualization that simplifies the concept, but... Draw a line from a center point to two random other points. Measure the two angles. Their distance from 180º is the deviation in this 2-D example. In relative space, there are a myriad of other angles, and those can be taken into consideration as well. I suppose it is Patrick's choice to include those other angles, or simplify it as points in 2-D space. If a straight line was painted with brush as wide as Jupiter, having an equator width of 71,472 kilometers, 1 degree difference starting at the Sun would not be able to touch the edge of Jupiter. Even if the paint brush was as large as the Sun, which is 695,508 kilometers wide, you wouldn't be able to touch Jupiter if you were off by 1 degree. The distance from the Sun to Jupiter is 5.2 AU or 780 million kilometers. 1 degree at that length is 4.3 million kilometers difference. At 5 degrees, the straight line would be off by more than 21 million kilometers. Math: Total distance/360 degrees: Jupiter's Aphelion and Perihelion 5.4 AU+4.9 AU Or about 1.5 billion kilometers for the circumference of Jupiter's orbit divided by 360 degrees This is assuming a circle-like orbit, but with ellipses, there is more variation. Barycenter is the point of rotation between bodies. Barycenter - Wikipedia Jupiter's barycenter with the Sun is 742,000 kilometers from it's center, still way under the 1 degree/4.3 million kilometer difference. I understand your point, which is why I asked Patrick what definition he uses. With +/- 5 degrees variance it allows a 21 million kilometer bubble for "line-ups". I used Jupiter as an example, but more distant objects will have greater variance. Edited September 6, 2021 by Archmonoth Corrected and added math on 1 degree distance 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted September 6, 2021 Share Posted September 6, 2021 There is a far better way to get the alignments rather than visual orbit estimations, if not already being done. It shouldn't be hard at all to find alignments to a specific degree. Put the orbits in a database and process the data to find what fits within the specified parameters. It wouldn't take but a few seconds to get results. Easy to say. Takes some time to build. Worth it in the end. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick P.A. Geryl Posted September 6, 2021 Author Share Posted September 6, 2021 (edited) 1 uur terug, Jesterface23 zei: There is a far better way to get the alignments rather than visual orbit estimations, if not already being done. It shouldn't be hard at all to find alignments to a specific degree. Put the orbits in a database and process the data to find what fits within the specified parameters. It wouldn't take but a few seconds to get results. Easy to say. Takes some time to build. Worth it in the end. 1. Sorry everybody, but the link to all the explanations takes some more time to put it up again (hopefully tomorrow). 2. I use a free program. The explanation was on that now deleted link, so i guess only Christopher read it. So a litle patience. 3. The current activity is quite high for these alignments. I guess the southern polar field is close to 'flipping'. I will know in 4 weeks... Alignments that END give temporary sunspots. There were quite a few on the same time frame... Makes things complicated! September 1 (22:15), August 18 (07:15) – September 1 (22:15), 2021 Triple Line Up Uranus – Ceres – Vesta September 3 (07:00), August 3 (05:15)- September 3 (07:00), 2021 Triple Line Up Saturn - Jupiter – Ceres September 3 (10:15), August 29 (22:15) – September 3 (10:15), 2021 Triple Line Up Mars - Earth – Pallas September 3 (17:15), August 8 (06:30) – September 3 (17:15), 2021 Triple Line Up Pluto – Pallas - Ceres September 4 (19:15), August 17 (17:00) – September 4 (19:15), 2021 Triple Line Up Neptune – Pallas - Earth Edited September 6, 2021 by Patrick Geryl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Archmonoth Posted September 6, 2021 Share Posted September 6, 2021 8 hours ago, Patrick Geryl said: 3. The current activity is quite high for these alignments. I guess the southern polar field is close to 'flipping'. I will know in 4 weeks... What does "flipping" mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick P.A. Geryl Posted September 6, 2021 Author Share Posted September 6, 2021 (edited) 2 uren geleden, Archmonoth zei: What does "flipping" mean? Told you to read my Researchgate page. Took me more then 25 years to find it...Flipping does mean change of polarity. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/348686960_Polar_Field_Strength_107_cm_Solar_Radio_Flux In January-February 2011 the northern polar field reached zero and then changed polarity. http://wso.stanford.edu/Polar.html Result: large sunspots. The best sunspot site in the world that covers them: https://solen.info/solar/old_reports/ Edited September 6, 2021 by Patrick Geryl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Archmonoth Posted September 7, 2021 Share Posted September 7, 2021 (edited) 9 hours ago, Patrick Geryl said: Told you to read my Researchgate page. Took me more then 25 years to find it...Flipping does mean change of polarity. Pointing at your own paper isn't fact, its your gathered evidence and conjecture. So, if the 4 current developing sunspots aren't "noise", then they are "flipping"?? I suggest not using quotes for clarity. If there is no change in polarity and they continue to develop, what would this tell you? I am asking this question because you are presenting the only 2 outcomes as either flipping or noise. Edited September 7, 2021 by Archmonoth 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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