3gMike Posted March 29, 2022 Share Posted March 29, 2022 8 hours ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said: We can say now with high certainty that AR2975 is the predicted Highly complex sunspot with large flare potential. 1. On stereo you can see it was born between March 20-21. We used stereo from 2013 till 2018 to develop our theory. It is the best to see the birth of sunspots on the Farside. It is a shame it doesn’t work anymore. Hugely complicates our task! 2. AR 2975 grew complex after 6 days, while we assumed around 5 days. 3. The flare potential will increase with Mercury alignments. 4. Interactions between sunspots complicates the interpretations. Patrick, There were two parts to your prediction - first the birth of the sunspot, and secondly a date for increased complexity, both of which seem to be reasonably in alignment with the development of AR2975, so it seems reasonable for you to claim this as an accurate prediction. You have obviously spent a lot of time developing your theory, and I feel certain that it is quite complicated. If you want to convince others that it is a viable theory you need to find a way to let others break through that complexity in order that they can understand the significance of the huge number of alignments that you have listed. It would be helpful if you can point out which alignments led you to predict birth date, and those which led to the enhanced complexity. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Archmonoth Posted March 29, 2022 Share Posted March 29, 2022 (edited) 10 hours ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said: We can say now with high certainty that AR2975 is the predicted Highly complex sunspot with large flare potential. The background flux has been in the C-class range for 16+ hours, and your post is 9 hours old. You are predicting something which is currently happening. This isn't prediction, it is stating the obvious. 10 hours ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said: 3. The flare potential will increase with Mercury alignments. By how much? 10%? 20%? Predicting flare potential increase when the background flux is C-Class, isn't saying much, if anything. Edited March 29, 2022 by Archmonoth 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick P.A. Geryl Posted March 30, 2022 Author Share Posted March 30, 2022 13 uren geleden, 3gMike zei: Patrick, There were two parts to your prediction - first the birth of the sunspot, and secondly a date for increased complexity, both of which seem to be reasonably in alignment with the development of AR2975, so it seems reasonable for you to claim this as an accurate prediction. You have obviously spent a lot of time developing your theory, and I feel certain that it is quite complicated. If you want to convince others that it is a viable theory you need to find a way to let others break through that complexity in order that they can understand the significance of the huge number of alignments that you have listed. It would be helpful if you can point out which alignments led you to predict birth date, and those which led to the enhanced complexity. Ok. But need help from you so that everybody will understand it. Please send an email so I can send a draft. Patrick.geryl2012 add gmail.com you write comments, I make second draft…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3gMike Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 1 hour ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said: Ok. But need help from you so that everybody will understand it. Please send an email so I can send a draft. Patrick.geryl2012 add gmail.com you write comments, I make second draft…. I'm happy to help, but I intend to be away for a few days Aurora hunting, so I'll get in touch after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick P.A. Geryl Posted April 16, 2022 Author Share Posted April 16, 2022 Op 30/3/2022 om 10:38, 3gMike zei: I'm happy to help, but I intend to be away for a few days Aurora hunting, so I'll get in touch after that. Mike gave some valuable info to make it better understandable. File published on Researchgate with also the coming predictions.... https://www.researchgate.net/publication/359993083_How_we_Predicted_the_Complexity_of_AR_2975 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick P.A. Geryl Posted April 23, 2022 Author Share Posted April 23, 2022 Op 16/4/2022 om 12:20, Patrick P.A. Geryl zei: Mike gave some valuable info to make it better understandable. File published on Researchgate with also the coming predictions.... https://www.researchgate.net/publication/359993083_How_we_Predicted_the_Complexity_of_AR_2975 Seems we have another good prediction. We stated that it would diminish slightly after April 14. Furthermore we stated 2 dates, April 16-17 and 22. The new sunspot created on April 22 took away energy from old AR 2975. It could regrow after April 26… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maurizio Marsigli Posted April 23, 2022 Share Posted April 23, 2022 A large scrub is entering in the southeast. Now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick P.A. Geryl Posted April 30, 2022 Author Share Posted April 30, 2022 we have listed a possible superflare May 4-8. Old sunspot 2992 is a possible candidate… See creation date April 16-17…. could be Earth directed. Old sunspot 2975, now rebranded 2994, also…but that is on the Farside… We predicted 2975 would stay active till at least May 5. So that was an accurate statement. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/359993083_How_we_Predicted_the_Complexity_of_AR_2975 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted April 30, 2022 Share Posted April 30, 2022 1 hour ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said: we have listed a possible superflare May 4-8. Old sunspot 2992 is a possible candidate… See creation date April 16-17…. could be Earth directed. Old sunspot 2975, now rebranded 2994, also…but that is on the Farside… We predicted 2975 would stay active till at least May 5. So that was an accurate statement. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/359993083_How_we_Predicted_the_Complexity_of_AR_2975 Why may 4-8? Why superflare? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick P.A. Geryl Posted April 30, 2022 Author Share Posted April 30, 2022 8 minuten geleden, MinYoongi zei: Why may 4-8? Why superflare? There was a superflare on July 23, 2017.’… it was with only 1 Triple with Mercury… explanation here… (PDF) Electromagnetic Waves and Solar Killshots https://www.researchgate.net/publication/355037930_Electromagnetic_Waves_and_Solar_Killshots Now, look at the amount of Triples with Mercury on May 5 in the above link… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Archmonoth Posted April 30, 2022 Share Posted April 30, 2022 4 hours ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said: we have listed a possible superflare May 4-8. What do you mean by super flare? x class? What can you correct or change in your calculation if there is no super flare? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedreamon Posted April 30, 2022 Share Posted April 30, 2022 (edited) 3 hours ago, Archmonoth said: What do you mean by super flare? x class? What can you correct or change in your calculation if there is no super flare? Judging by the ResearchGate article he just reposted saying the November 3rd 2003 X-Class flare being a super flare, I'd say something in that range is what he means. Personally, I'd take these research papers with a grain of salt since solar flares and their associated CMEs, to my knowledge, can't really be predicted no matter the timeframe. (and the use of "YouTube solar physicists" for information, but that's veering way off-topic if we get into that) Edited April 30, 2022 by Bedreamon 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sammyy Posted April 30, 2022 Share Posted April 30, 2022 5 hours ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said: we have listed a possible superflare May 4-8. Old sunspot 2992 is a possible candidate… See creation date April 16-17…. could be Earth directed. Old sunspot 2975, now rebranded 2994, also…but that is on the Farside… We predicted 2975 would stay active till at least May 5. So that was an accurate statement. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/359993083_How_we_Predicted_the_Complexity_of_AR_2975 Do you have a percentage calculated for this super-flare? Or a range of how likely it is? I read this in your research paper Patrick Quote Complex sunspots are created by combinations with Mercury and Venus. Does this mean a complex sunspot will form on May 14th? I can see Venus-Mars line-up on that date, or Venus-Mars-Saturn even.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick P.A. Geryl Posted May 1, 2022 Author Share Posted May 1, 2022 10 uren geleden, Sammyy zei: Do you have a percentage calculated for this super-flare? Or a range of how likely it is? I read this in your research paper Patrick Does this mean a complex sunspot will form on May 14th? I can see Venus-Mars line-up on that date, or Venus-Mars-Saturn even.. There are 3 possible candidates for a superflare. Returning 2992, Farside 2994 and another one born on April 22…. But where is that one? They all interact, so hard to say how it will play out… We will know in 3 days if 2992 is a candidate… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted May 1, 2022 Share Posted May 1, 2022 4 hours ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said: We will know in 3 days if 2992 is a candidate… Wont it be at the limb tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Archmonoth Posted May 1, 2022 Share Posted May 1, 2022 9 hours ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said: They all interact, so hard to say how it will play out… Then why make predictions? What does an incorrect prediction tell you? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick P.A. Geryl Posted May 5, 2022 Author Share Posted May 5, 2022 (edited) AR 3004 is the complex sunspot from April 22. It rotated into view on April 27, Because of the interaction with the 2 other sunspots AR 2994 and AR3006 = ex 2992, it declined first in activity before growing rapidly. As we can see on our file on Researchgate it has now reached its peak in activity. AR2994 = ex 2975 has also grown… complex situation… Edited May 5, 2022 by Patrick P.A. Geryl AR2994 = AR2975 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3gMike Posted May 5, 2022 Share Posted May 5, 2022 2 hours ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said: AR 3004 is the complex sunspot from April 22. It rotated into view on April 27, Because of the interaction with the 2 other sunspots AR 2994 and AR3006 = ex 2992, it declined first in activity before growing rapidly. Patrick, you will need to explain this further. AR3004 was first formally identified on 3rd May at longitude -12. Looking back through the archive there is no evidence of activity prior to that. I can understand that it is possible to make a calculation that would place that area on the limb on the 27th, but there was no evidence of activity at that time so you cannot reasonably say that it declined in activity. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick P.A. Geryl Posted May 5, 2022 Author Share Posted May 5, 2022 2 minuten geleden, 3gMike zei: Patrick, you will need to explain this further. AR3004 was first formally identified on 3rd May at longitude -12. Looking back through the archive there is no evidence of activity prior to that. I can understand that it is possible to make a calculation that would place that area on the limb on the 27th, but there was no evidence of activity at that time so you cannot reasonably say that it declined in activity. Always follow Solen.info. He listed AR3004 from S7529 that rotated into view on April 27. NOAA AND NASA are amateurs. And we really mean that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3gMike Posted May 5, 2022 Share Posted May 5, 2022 8 minutes ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said: Always follow Solen.info. He listed AR3004 from S7529 that rotated into view on April 27. NOAA AND NASA are amateurs. And we really mean that. O.K. but AR3000 was identified close to that area on the 27th and is still listed as a plage. Both regions are on a similar latitude but AR3000 is at Carrington Longitude 342 - 346 while AR3004 is at Carrington Longitude 323 - 325 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick P.A. Geryl Posted May 5, 2022 Author Share Posted May 5, 2022 14 minuten geleden, 3gMike zei: O.K. but AR3000 was identified close to that area on the 27th and is still listed as a plage. Both regions are on a similar latitude but AR3000 is at Carrington Longitude 342 - 346 while AR3004 is at Carrington Longitude 323 - 325 STAR archive As can be seen here https://solen.info/solar/old_reports/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3gMike Posted May 5, 2022 Share Posted May 5, 2022 11 hours ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said: STAR archive As can be seen here https://solen.info/solar/old_reports/ But even if one accepts that Jan is producing more accurate information than SWPC that still does not link back to the prediction for April 22 - what am I missing here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick P.A. Geryl Posted May 6, 2022 Author Share Posted May 6, 2022 (edited) 3 uren geleden, 3gMike zei: But even if one accepts that Jan is producing more accurate information than SWPC that still does not link back to the prediction for April 22 - what am I missing here? AR3004 was born on April 22. Look at the file from Researchgate. The high from that sunspot falls on May 5. Then the alignments get weaker… This happened! Also in that file is the birth of a new sunspot! Think you mentioned that elsewhere! Edited May 6, 2022 by Patrick P.A. Geryl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted May 6, 2022 Share Posted May 6, 2022 12 minutes ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said: AR3004 was born on April 22. Look at the file from Researchgate. The high from that sunspot falls on May 5. Then the alignments get weaker… This happened! Also in that file is the birth of a new sunspot! Think you mentioned that elsewhere! so your theory predicts it will decay after today? or get weaker? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick P.A. Geryl Posted May 6, 2022 Author Share Posted May 6, 2022 Zojuist, MinYoongi zei: so your theory predicts it will decay after today? or get weaker? The high in complexity for 3004 was yesterday = May 5. I already mentioned that 17 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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