3gMike Posted July 2, 2022 Share Posted July 2, 2022 2 hours ago, WildWill said: Howdy 3G! I saw all these”alignments “ that were not marked, etc, nor included in Patrick’s predictions. Can you tell me what I’m missing here? Thanks! WW This is what Patrick gave for alignments July 2 (11:00) June 27 (01:00) – July 28 (23:00), 2022 Triple Line Up Ceres – Venus – Juno June 27 (03:45) – July 8 (20:00), 2022 Triple Line Up Pluto – Vesta – Venus June 29 (07:15) – July 11 (20:45), 2022 Triple Line Up Uranus – Pallas – Venus July 2 (11:00) – 3 (00:30), 2022: Conjunction Mercury - Venus and the Sun The map I generated presents the triples in green and the conjunction in red. They all have a connection to Venus (which has got hidden by all the lines !), and are drawn in the order stated in Patrick's list. I take the map from The Planets Today website, which does not mark planetoids Juno, Vesta or Pallas, but we know they are in the Asteroid belt, so for Ceres-Venus-Juno I drew the line from Ceres to Venus, then extended it to the opposite side of the asteroid belt. Since Vesta and Pallas were in the centre of their triples I simply drew a line from Planet to Planet. You may notice that the Conjunction does not pass through the centre of the Sun. I simply drew the line through Venus and Mercury. I do not have access to Patrick's calculations so I do not know what error band he uses. There is no alignment with Earth-Venus-Uranus, or Saturn-Mars-Ceres. I suspect the labelling (from Planets Today) may be misleading you. Saturn-Jupiter-Uranus certainly grazes Jupiter, but presumably does not satisfy Patrick's error band. I hope this makes it clearer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick P.A. Geryl Posted July 3, 2022 Author Share Posted July 3, 2022 Outside the low complex sunspots on the Farside, the next one is for July 13-17. It has 3 Triples with the Earth. Pic Mike? July 5 (16:30) – 22 (11:00), 2022: Opposition Ceres – Pluto across the Sun July 13 (15:15) – 22 (03:45), 2022 Triple Line Up Pluto – Earth - Ceres July 13 (15:15) – 22 (03:45), 2022 Triple Line Up Pluto – Earth - Ceres July 15 (11:15) – 22 (06:45), 2022 Triple Line Up Pluto – Mercury – Ceres July 15 (11:15) – 22 (06:45), 2022 Triple Line Up Pluto – Mercury – Ceres July 16 (09:45) – 17 (05:00), 2022: Opposition Mercury – Earth across the Sun July 16 (23:45) – 17 (16:00), 2022: Opposition Mercury – Pluto across the Sun July 17 (03:45) – (18:45), 2022: Conjunction Mercury - Ceres and the Sun July 17 (08:45) – 19 (05:30), 2022 Triple Line Up Pluto – Earth - Mercury July 17 (08:45) – 19 (05:30), 2022 Triple Line Up Pluto – Earth - Mercury July 17 (15:30) – 19 (03:30), 2022 Triple Line Up Ceres - Mercury - Earth July 17 (15:30) – 19 (03:30), 2022 Triple Line Up Ceres - Mercury - Earth July 18 (12:30) – 22 (02:45), 2022: Conjunction Pluto - Earth and the Sun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3gMike Posted July 3, 2022 Share Posted July 3, 2022 8 hours ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said: Outside the low complex sunspots on the Farside, the next one is for July 13-17. It has 3 Triples with the Earth. Pic Mike? July 5 (16:30) – 22 (11:00), 2022: Opposition Ceres – Pluto across the Sun July 13 (15:15) – 22 (03:45), 2022 Triple Line Up Pluto – Earth - Ceres July 13 (15:15) – 22 (03:45), 2022 Triple Line Up Pluto – Earth - Ceres July 15 (11:15) – 22 (06:45), 2022 Triple Line Up Pluto – Mercury – Ceres July 15 (11:15) – 22 (06:45), 2022 Triple Line Up Pluto – Mercury – Ceres July 16 (09:45) – 17 (05:00), 2022: Opposition Mercury – Earth across the Sun July 16 (23:45) – 17 (16:00), 2022: Opposition Mercury – Pluto across the Sun July 17 (03:45) – (18:45), 2022: Conjunction Mercury - Ceres and the Sun July 17 (08:45) – 19 (05:30), 2022 Triple Line Up Pluto – Earth - Mercury July 17 (08:45) – 19 (05:30), 2022 Triple Line Up Pluto – Earth - Mercury July 17 (15:30) – 19 (03:30), 2022 Triple Line Up Ceres - Mercury - Earth July 17 (15:30) – 19 (03:30), 2022 Triple Line Up Ceres - Mercury - Earth July 18 (12:30) – 22 (02:45), 2022: Conjunction Pluto - Earth and the Sun I'm not sure this is much help ! I've used the map for 15th July since that is the midpoint of your prediction. There are multiple lines through the sun and two triples that do not seem to align - Pluto-Mercury-Ceres and Ceres-Mercury- Earth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Archmonoth Posted July 4, 2022 Share Posted July 4, 2022 (edited) 19 hours ago, 3gMike said: I'm not sure this is much help ! I've used the map for 15th July since that is the midpoint of your prediction. There are multiple lines through the sun and two triples that do not seem to align - Pluto-Mercury-Ceres and Ceres-Mercury- Earth. Venus and Uranus also seem pretty aligned, as does Jupiter, Neptune and Mars. The visual display is kind of perception warping, since the distances and such are not to scale. Edited July 4, 2022 by Archmonoth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3gMike Posted July 4, 2022 Share Posted July 4, 2022 2 hours ago, Archmonoth said: The visual display is kind of perception warping, since the distances and such are not to scale. Agreed ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3gMike Posted July 4, 2022 Share Posted July 4, 2022 Attempting to illustrate the scale of the problem.... If we take the distance from Pluto to the Sun as 4.45billion km and diameter of the Sun as 1.4million km we can calculate that an error of 0.01 degrees will be equal to the radius of the Sun, and therefore a line drawn from the centre of Pluto would only contact the surface of the Sun if alignment was within +/- 0.01 degrees. Given that Ceres is only 946km diameter and it is on the opposite side of the Sun, at a distance of 413 million km true alignment becomes impractical. This all suggests that Patrick must be using an arbitary angle to define alignment. Patrick, Can you please indicate how you specify the allowable angular discrepancy when defining an alignment, and also can you indicate if you modify the angle depending on distance between planets / planetoids. Also, do you define angle from the central object in the Triple, or from either end? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick P.A. Geryl Posted July 5, 2022 Author Share Posted July 5, 2022 (edited) 14 uren geleden, 3gMike zei: Attempting to illustrate the scale of the problem.... If we take the distance from Pluto to the Sun as 4.45billion km and diameter of the Sun as 1.4million km we can calculate that an error of 0.01 degrees will be equal to the radius of the Sun, and therefore a line drawn from the centre of Pluto would only contact the surface of the Sun if alignment was within +/- 0.01 degrees. Given that Ceres is only 946km diameter and it is on the opposite side of the Sun, at a distance of 413 million km true alignment becomes impractical. This all suggests that Patrick must be using an arbitary angle to define alignment. Patrick, Can you please indicate how you specify the allowable angular discrepancy when defining an alignment, and also can you indicate if you modify the angle depending on distance between planets / planetoids. Also, do you define angle from the central object in the Triple, or from either end? 3.5 degrees from midpoint. Mercury moves 4 degrees per day earth 1 degree imagine they are at the equator with the Sun. How long would an opposition last? answer: bit more then 2 days above example: less then 1 day. Reason : earth and Mercury not at equator Sun… now take earth as midpoint, and everything changes! same for Mercury as midpoint… etcetera Important question: is the new sunspot old 3030? I stated that old 3014 would return twice… Edited July 5, 2022 by Patrick P.A. Geryl 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3gMike Posted July 5, 2022 Share Posted July 5, 2022 9 hours ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said: 3.5 degrees from midpoint. Mercury moves 4 degrees per day earth 1 degree imagine they are at the equator with the Sun. How long would an opposition last? answer: bit more then 2 days above example: less then 1 day. Reason : earth and Mercury not at equator Sun… now take earth as midpoint, and everything changes! same for Mercury as midpoint… etcetera Important question: is the new sunspot old 3030? I stated that old 3014 would return twice… Thanks for the clarification. Just to be absolutely clear - are you saying that if one end of the line-up is at, say, +3.5deg then the other end could be in the range 0 to - 3.5 deg - or could both ends be anywhere in the range +/- 3.5 deg with respect to midpoint? Concerning AR3030 and AR3014 - The sunspot just appearing on the limb, now labelled AR3053, is currently listed at N14E75, so about 15 degrees from limb. The synoptic map for 17:36 today listed the limb as Carrington 121, so that would suggest AR3053 is at Carrington 136. AR3030 left the west limb at N18 Carr 118, so not obviously the same spot, but I think that the centroid of the whole zone has moved forward during transition of the farside, so it is possible that it is the same spot. AR3014 left the west limb at N22, Carr 104, so I think we still have to wait to see that. The tail end of the zone is back at Carr 90 so will not be seen for another two days. We will have to wait until all spots show before we can be certain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWill Posted July 7, 2022 Share Posted July 7, 2022 All Y’all, ain’t it awesome just what a difference a day or two can make? Beautiful blemishes. To me, it looks like lines are maybe starting to form in the Southern Hemisphere like we saw in the northern hemisphere a few days ago. As the equator moves faster, these “lines” look like they will flatten to about the same,angle as in the north. Anyone else see this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick P.A. Geryl Posted July 10, 2022 Author Share Posted July 10, 2022 (edited) This could become low level beta-gamma-delta. Mike, if you have time… July 29-30 July 26 (11:00) – 29 (03:15), 2022 Triple Line Up Jupiter - Mars - Mercury June 27 (06:00) – 29 (05:45), 2022 Triple Line Up Uranus – Venus – Mercury July 29 (03:00) – 30 (03:00), 2022: Opposition Mercury – Jupiter across the Sun July 29 (17:00) – 30 (21:45), 2022: Opposition Mercury – Mars across the Sun July 29 (23:45) – August 5 (00:45), 2022 Triple Line Up Uranus - Mars – Earth July 30 (04:30) – August 1 (08:00), 2022 Triple Line Up Saturn – Earth – Mercury Edited July 10, 2022 by Patrick P.A. Geryl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted July 10, 2022 Share Posted July 10, 2022 12 minutes ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said: This could become low level beta-gamma-delta. 3055 or which AR do you mean? One that will be formed according to your thesis? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick P.A. Geryl Posted July 10, 2022 Author Share Posted July 10, 2022 11 minuten geleden, MinYoongi zei: 3055 or which AR do you mean? One that will be formed according to your thesis? Later in July is the birth of a possible low complex sunspot. I don’t know which 3055 is exactly, but I have no really complex sunspots calculated… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3gMike Posted July 11, 2022 Share Posted July 11, 2022 21 hours ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said: This could become low level beta-gamma-delta. Mike, if you have time… July 29-30 July 26 (11:00) – 29 (03:15), 2022 Triple Line Up Jupiter - Mars - Mercury June 27 (06:00) – 29 (05:45), 2022 Triple Line Up Uranus – Venus – Mercury July 29 (03:00) – 30 (03:00), 2022: Opposition Mercury – Jupiter across the Sun July 29 (17:00) – 30 (21:45), 2022: Opposition Mercury – Mars across the Sun July 29 (23:45) – August 5 (00:45), 2022 Triple Line Up Uranus - Mars – Earth July 30 (04:30) – August 1 (08:00), 2022 Triple Line Up Saturn – Earth – Mercury Hi Patrick, It is not looking good. Most of the Triples are way off. Oppositions look O.K. but could possibly also include Mercury-Neptune across Sun? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick P.A. Geryl Posted July 11, 2022 Author Share Posted July 11, 2022 46 minuten geleden, 3gMike zei: Hi Patrick, It is not looking good. Most of the Triples are way off. Oppositions look O.K. but could possibly also include Mercury-Neptune across Sun? The program is not to scale. We use it to try to find where the sunspots could be born opposition not in formula. Just outside. July 28 (01:00) – (23:45), 2022: Opposition Mercury – Neptune across the Sun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3gMike Posted July 11, 2022 Share Posted July 11, 2022 1 hour ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said: The program is not to scale. We use it to try to find where the sunspots could be born opposition not in formula. Just outside. July 28 (01:00) – (23:45), 2022: Opposition Mercury – Neptune across the Sun Yes, understood but how does that affect your prediction of where the spot may be formed? Based solely on oppositions might the spot form in the Western hemisphere of the Sun as viewed from Earth? Alternatively, would you say that it appears on the farside due to three of the triples (and the oppositions) including Mercury? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick P.A. Geryl Posted July 11, 2022 Author Share Posted July 11, 2022 1 uur terug, 3gMike zei: Yes, understood but how does that affect your prediction of where the spot may be formed? Based solely on oppositions might the spot form in the Western hemisphere of the Sun as viewed from Earth? Alternatively, would you say that it appears on the farside due to three of the triples (and the oppositions) including Mercury? On the Farside near Mercury. Till now all relatively strong sunspots where on the Farside as expected, because Mercury and Venus are on the Farside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3gMike Posted July 11, 2022 Share Posted July 11, 2022 1 hour ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said: On the Farside near Mercury. Till now all relatively strong sunspots where on the Farside as expected, because Mercury and Venus are on the Farside. Can you list those relatively strong spots please? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick P.A. Geryl Posted July 31, 2022 Author Share Posted July 31, 2022 The Mercury and Venus Triple alignments for August… July 21 (13:30) – August 3 (02:30), 2022 Triple Line Up Ceres – Venus – Saturn July 30 (04:30) – August 1 (08:00), 2022 Triple Line Up Saturn – Earth - Mercury August 1 (13:30) – 6 (23:00), 2022 Triple Line Up Uranus – Pallas - Mercury August 5 (08:30) – 7 (12:45), 2022 Triple Line Up Vesta – Earth - Mercury August 7 (03:00) – 29 (16:30), 2022 Triple Line Up Neptune – Jupiter - Venus August 7 (08:15) – 11 (00:15), 2022 Triple Line Up Chiron – Mars - Mercury August 7 (14:45) – 10 (20:00), 2022 Triple Line Up Venus – Earth - Pluto August 10 (09:00) – 16 (03:30), 2022 Triple Line Up Ceres – Venus – Vesta August 15 (11:00) – 23 (12:30), 2022 Triple Line Up Ceres - Mercury - Pluto August 15 (23:15) – 18 (15:45), 2022 Triple Line Up Juno – Earth - Mercury August 18 (12:00) - 24 (22:00), 2022 Triple Line Up Saturn – Vesta - Venus August 19 (17:15) – 22 (23:45), 2022 Triple Line Up Neptune – Earth - Mercury August 21 (08:00) – 24 (01:45), 2022 Triple Line Up Ceres – Venus – Earth August 24 (05:30) – 28 (18:00), 2022 Triple Line Up Neptune – Mars - Venus August 26 (01:45) – September 11 (23:00), 2022 Triple Line Up Neptune – Juno - Mercury August 26 (13:00) – 30 (04:30), 2022 Triple Line Up Jupiter – Mars - Venus August 28 (05:30) - 30 (07:15), 2022 Triple Line Up Saturn – Earth - Venus August 31 (12:30) – September 6 (12:00), 2022 Triple Line Up Jupiter – Earth - Mercury First low level sunspot for August 15…. Outside a possible Farside one from July… August 3 (00:30) – 22 (09:00), 2022 Triple Line Up Neptune – Pallas - Ceres August 14 (11:00) – 16 (00:45), 2022: Opposition Mercury – Pallas across the Sun August 15 (11:00) – 23 (12:30), 2022 Triple Line Up Ceres - Mercury - Pluto August 15 (23:15) – 18 (15:45), 2022 Triple Line Up Juno – Earth - Mercury 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick P.A. Geryl Posted August 6, 2022 Author Share Posted August 6, 2022 (edited) The second possible low complex sunspot for August August 21-23 August 16 (16:00) - 22 (11:15), 2022 Triple Line Up Uranus – Juno - Vesta August 18 (12:00) - 24 (22:00), 2022 Triple Line Up Saturn – Vesta - Venus August 19 (17:15) – 22 (23:45), 2022 Triple Line Up Neptune – Earth - Mercury August 19 (17:15) – 22 (23:45), 2022 Triple Line Up Neptune – Earth - Mercury August 21 (03:15) – 24 (10:30), 2022: Conjunction Vesta - Earth and the Sun August 21 (08:00) – 24 (01:45), 2022 Triple Line Up Ceres – Venus – Earth August 21 (08:00) – 24 (01:45), 2022 Triple Line Up Ceres – Venus – Earth August 23 (07:15) – September 5 (00:15), 2022 Triple Line Up Saturn – Vesta - Ceres Edited August 6, 2022 by Patrick P.A. Geryl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick P.A. Geryl Posted August 20, 2022 Author Share Posted August 20, 2022 Op 6/8/2022 om 08:23, Patrick P.A. Geryl zei: The second possible low complex sunspot for August August 21-23 August 16 (16:00) - 22 (11:15), 2022 Triple Line Up Uranus – Juno - Vesta August 18 (12:00) - 24 (22:00), 2022 Triple Line Up Saturn – Vesta - Venus August 19 (17:15) – 22 (23:45), 2022 Triple Line Up Neptune – Earth - Mercury August 19 (17:15) – 22 (23:45), 2022 Triple Line Up Neptune – Earth - Mercury August 21 (03:15) – 24 (10:30), 2022: Conjunction Vesta - Earth and the Sun August 21 (08:00) – 24 (01:45), 2022 Triple Line Up Ceres – Venus – Earth August 21 (08:00) – 24 (01:45), 2022 Triple Line Up Ceres – Venus – Earth August 23 (07:15) – September 5 (00:15), 2022 Triple Line Up Saturn – Vesta - Ceres We have a conjunction Vesta-Earth. Will the sunspot appear in the middle of the Sun? also… could be an X flare candidate… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick P.A. Geryl Posted August 21, 2022 Author Share Posted August 21, 2022 (edited) Op 20/8/2022 om 10:13, Patrick P.A. Geryl zei: We have a conjunction Vesta-Earth. Will the sunspot appear in the middle of the Sun? also… could be an X flare candidate… A new sunspot… 3085 appeared on the expected date…Seems it was slightly to the East from the middle… 3085 is the first complex candidate in weeks… 3085 to be watched… But activity for the Farside Next complex sunspot with X flare potential… August 25-28 August 7 (03:00) – 29 (16:30), 2022 Triple Line Up Neptune – Jupiter – Venus August 18 (15:00) - 31 (03:45), 2022 Triple Line Up Pluto – Juno - Pallas August 24 (05:30) – 28 (18:00), 2022 Triple Line Up Neptune – Mars - Venus August 25 (22:15) – 28 (09:30), 2022: Opposition Venus – Pluto across the Sun August 26 (13:00) – 30 (04:30), 2022 Triple Line Up Jupiter – Mars - Venus August 28 (05:30) - 30 (07:15), 2022 Triple Line Up Saturn – Earth - Venus Edited August 22, 2022 by Patrick P.A. Geryl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick P.A. Geryl Posted August 26, 2022 Author Share Posted August 26, 2022 Is this our X flare candidate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Archmonoth Posted August 26, 2022 Share Posted August 26, 2022 2 hours ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said: Is this our X flare candidate? You are the one predicting the sunspots. Is it a candidate? Or are you just asking a leading question? You tell me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick P.A. Geryl Posted August 31, 2022 Author Share Posted August 31, 2022 The Mercury and Venus alignments for September Remark. All alignments have a relative short duration. Don’t expect large X flares… August 26 (01:45) – September 11 (23:00), 2022 Triple Line Up Neptune – Juno - Mercury August 31 (12:30) – September 6 (12:00), 2022 Triple Line Up Jupiter – Earth - Mercury September 1 (01:15) - 2 (21:30), 2022 Triple Line Up Pluto – Mercury - Venus September 1 (09:15) - 4 (03:00), 2022 Triple Line Up Vesta – Earth - Venus September 6 (09:00) - 7 (23:15), 2022 Triple Line Up Ceres – Venus - Mercury September 12 (10:15) - 14 (01:15), 2022 Triple Line Up Saturn – Mercury - Venus September 14 (00:30) – 22 (07:00), 2022 Triple Line Up Uranus – Pallas - Venus September 14 (09:00) – 17 (01:45), 2022 Triple Line Up Venus – Earth - Juno September 15 (12:00) – 20 (01:00), 2022 Triple Line Up Uranus – Mars - Mercury September 15 (18:30) – 20 (01:15), 2022 Triple Line Up Venus – Mars - Chiron September 15 (21:15) – 21 (05:45), 2022 Triple Line Up Jupiter – Earth - Mercury September 18 (06:00) - 19 (14:45), 2022 Triple Line Up Vesta – Mercury - Venus September 22 (13:45) – 23 (21:15), 2022 Triple Line Up Venus - Mercury – Juno September 22 (19:00) – 25 (22:30), 2022 Triple Line Up Venus – Earth - Neptune September 22 (20:15) – 30 (22:15), 2022 Triple Line Up Saturn – Mercury - Ceres September 24 (21:30) – 26 (09:15), 2022 Triple Line Up Venus – Mercury - Neptune September 26 (04:15) – 27 (07:30), 2022 Triple Line Up Venus – Mercury - Earth September 28 (02:00) – 29 (11:00), 2022 Triple Line Up Venus – Mercury - Jupiter September 28 (03:00) – October 6 (07:15), 2022 Triple Line Up Neptune – Earth - Mercury September 30 (07:30) – October 3 (05:00), 2022 Triple Line Up Venus – Earth – Jupiter September 30 (22:00) – October 7 (04:30), 2022 Triple Line Up Neptune – Juno - Venus Possible large M flaring sunspot September 1 (01:15) - 2 (21:30), 2022 Triple Line Up Pluto – Mercury - Venus September 1 (09:15) - 4 (03:00), 2022 Triple Line Up Vesta – Earth - Venus September 1 (01:15) - 2 (21:30), 2022 Triple Line Up Pluto – Mercury - Venus September 1 (09:15) - 4 (03:00), 2022 Triple Line Up Vesta – Earth - Venus September 2 (20:15) – 4 (22:15), 2022: Conjunction Venus - Ceres and the Sun September 3 (03:00) - 11 (00:15), 2022 Triple Line Up Saturn – Earth - Ceres Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick P.A. Geryl Posted September 3, 2022 Author Share Posted September 3, 2022 (edited) Fast growing sunspot September 6 (01:15) August 31 (12:30) – September 6 (12:00), 2022 Triple Line Up Jupiter – Earth - Mercury August 26 (01:45) – September 11 (23:00), 2022 Triple Line Up Neptune – Juno - Mercury September 6 (01:15) – 9 (08:15), 2022: Conjunction Juno - Earth and the Sun August 31 (12:30) – September 6 (12:00), 2022 Triple Line Up Jupiter – Earth - Mercury August 28 (18:45) – September 12 (07:15), 2022 Triple Line Up Pluto – Vesta – Mars September 6 (04:15) – 7 (10:45), 2022: Conjunction Mercury - Pluto and the Sun September 6 (09:00) - 7 (23:15), 2022 Triple Line Up Ceres – Venus - Mercury looks like it turned up on the Farside near the limb Edited September 8, 2022 by Patrick P.A. Geryl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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