Coming sunspots

[MinYoongi]

22 minutes ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:

The high in complexity for 3004 was yesterday = May 5. I already mentioned that 17 hours ago. 

I did not read it thoroughly then, sorry.

I just remembered you talked once about something may 4-8. 

so you expect it to decay now? Im waiting for a solen.info update.

[Patrick P.A. Geryl]

1 minuut geleden, MinYoongi zei:

I did not read it thoroughly then, sorry.

I just remembered you talked once about something may 4-8. 

so you expect it to decay now? Im waiting for a solen.info update.

It is already decaying. We need to make new calculations for 2994. That interacts with a new complex sunspot. After that only 1 complex sunspot is coming this month. See file.

[MinYoongi]

Just now, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:

It is already decaying. We need to make new calculations for 2994. That interacts with a new complex sunspot. After that only 1 complex sunspot is coming this month. See file.

you mean 2994 thats ~10 days away ? I'll look in the morning, its very late. 

[Patrick P.A. Geryl]

Op 6/5/2022 om 04:20, MinYoongi zei:

you mean 2994 thats ~10 days away ? I'll look in the morning, its very late. 

According to the Farside map sunspot 2994 =ex 2975 looks growing. If you look to the file on Researchgate, we predicted a superflare or a super sunspot. That super sunspot has several identical alignments as 2975. So it is possible that they are near each other or have overgrown. We are calculating the interactions, but they are complex…. Could take some time… See (6) (PDF) How we Predicted the Complexity of AR 2975

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/359993083_How_we_Predicted_the_Complexity_of_AR_2975

[Strom]

It looks like there was some pretty good activity behind the east limb yesterday.   Is there a known sun spot emerging from there soon?

[3gMike]

1 hour ago, Strom said:

It looks like there was some pretty good activity behind the east limb yesterday.   Is there a known sun spot emerging from there soon?

Could have been this one - showing on the limb today

[abc]

8 hours ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:

According to the Farside map sunspot 2994 =ex 2975 looks growing. If you look to the file on Researchgate, we predicted a superflare or a super sunspot. That super sunspot has several identical alignments as 2975. So it is possible that they are near each other or have overgrown. We are calculating the interactions, but they are complex…. Could take some time… See (6) (PDF) How we Predicted the Complexity of AR 2975

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/359993083_How_we_Predicted_the_Complexity_of_AR_2975

when are you predicting the superflare/superspot

However, I would likely not believe in them fully since these preidtcions are not always true

[Archmonoth]

On 5/5/2022 at 6:18 PM, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:

It is already decaying. We need to make new calculations for 2994. That interacts with a new complex sunspot. After that only 1 complex sunspot is coming this month. See file.

It grew, it didn't decay. 3007 went up by 60 today. It also had an M1.6. 

You are guessing wildly, hoping something will stick.

If and when you are incorrect, how do you adjust your prediction? I see you predicting lots of stuff, but no accountability when incorrect or adjustments being made. You claim NOAA and NSA are amateurs, yet you constantly plug your non-peer reviewed ResearchGate paper every chance you get.  Perhaps you are the amateur?

 

Not that there is anything wrong with being an amateur, just seems a hypocritical and superficially petty on your part. 

Edited May 11, 2022 by Archmonoth

[Patrick P.A. Geryl]

Update X flares

The 5 latest X flares were from our predicted complex sunspots. Report for later.
 

If we go to the file on Researchgate we will see that the Triple alignments with Mercury ended late May 16 and will resume late May 19.

conclusion

No complex sunspots May 17-18.

new complex sunspot creation possible around May 21.

(10) (PDF) How we Predicted the Complexity of AR 2975


https://www.researchgate.net/publication/359993083_How_we_Predicted_the_Complexity_of_AR_2975

 

Edited May 17, 2022 by Patrick P.A. Geryl

[Archmonoth]

15 hours ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:

Update X flares

The 5 latest X flares were from our predicted complex sunspots. Report for later.
 

If we go to the file on Researchgate we will see that the Triple alignments with Mercury ended late May 16 and will resume late May 19.

conclusion

No complex sunspots May 17-18.

new complex sunspot creation possible around May 21.

(10) (PDF) How we Predicted the Complexity of AR 2975


https://www.researchgate.net/publication/359993083_How_we_Predicted_the_Complexity_of_AR_2975

 

I see no predictions for x class flares anywhere, either on the forum or your links. What complexity was predicted? The link is just a reference to this forum. 

 

What are the "major problems" noted in your link? 

[abc]

On 5/17/2022 at 1:34 PM, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:

Update X flares

The 5 latest X flares were from our predicted complex sunspots. Report for later.
 

If we go to the file on Researchgate we will see that the Triple alignments with Mercury ended late May 16 and will resume late May 19.

conclusion

No complex sunspots May 17-18.

new complex sunspot creation possible around May 21.

(10) (PDF) How we Predicted the Complexity of AR 2975


https://www.researchgate.net/publication/359993083_How_we_Predicted_the_Complexity_of_AR_2975

 

@Patrick P.A. Geryl It is obvious that AR3014 experienced significant growth on May17-18 and it contradicts with your conclusion, how would you account for it  

[Patrick P.A. Geryl]

1 uur terug, abc zei:

@Patrick P.A. Geryl It is obvious that AR3014 experienced significant growth on May17-18 and it contradicts with your conclusion, how would you account for it  

It seems that AR3014 reacts to the code from AR2975. Will try to calculate. Currently in hospital for operation on hand. Lots of pain.
The Triple Chiron-Venus-Earth ended May 17. This gave a boost that can last 2 days.
See document. But the Deltas are not strong. That could change May 19 with the Mercury Triple. It depends from the interaction with the new sunspot. We haven’t figured that out yet.

 

[Patrick P.A. Geryl]

We mentioned before that the calculated supersunspot for May 6 could have overgrown there. If AR3014 is that supersunspot, and it looks so, then we are on watch if it reacts to that Triple on May 19… we hope not… 

[Patrick P.A. Geryl]

Op 18/5/2022 om 18:20, Patrick P.A. Geryl zei:

We mentioned before that the calculated supersunspot for May 6 could have overgrown there. If AR3014 is that supersunspot, and it looks so, then we are on watch if it reacts to that Triple on May 19… we hope not… 

We were lucky that AR3014 only slightly reacted to the Triple. However AR3014 isn’t finished. According to our calculations it should be able to return twice. And it could grow bigger. 

Anyway, we have another huge prediction right! We calculated a supersunspot, see our file on Researchgate, and AR 3014 was indeed the largest sunspot from cycle 25! It has the potential to grow even larger. We hope not, because then it will have very large X flare potential.

Here you find a comparison between AR 3014 and AR 0720, the largest group from solar cycle 23:

Déjà-vu all over? Not quite. | STCE

https://www.stce.be/news/592/welcome.html

 

[mozy]

... Don't tell me you're saying you had the "super sunspot" prediction correct with AR3014.. Now that's reaching lmao..

[Isatsuki San]

7 hours ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:

Tuvimos suerte de que AR3014 solo reaccionara ligeramente al Triple. Sin embargo, AR3014 no está terminado. Según nuestros cálculos, debería poder regresar dos veces. Y podría crecer más. 

De todos modos, ¡tenemos otra gran predicción, verdad! Calculamos una supermancha solar, vea nuestro archivo en Researchgate, ¡y AR 3014 fue de hecho la mancha solar más grande del ciclo 25! Tiene el potencial de crecer aún más. Esperamos que no, porque entonces tendrá un gran potencial de llamaradas X.

Aquí encuentra una comparación entre AR 3014 y AR 0720, el grupo más grande del ciclo solar 23:

¿Déjà-vu por todas partes? No exactamente. | STCE

https://www.stce.be/news/592/welcome.html

 

patrick the spot 0720 was not the largest sunspot of solar cycle 23, if you look at the ranking of 25 sunspot regions you will see that the largest spot of solar cycle 23 was 0486 that was the one that gave the super solar flare x28+

[Newbie]

59 minutes ago, Isatsuki San said:

patrick the spot 0720 was not the largest sunspot of solar cycle 23, if you look at the ranking of 25 sunspot regions you will see that the largest spot of solar cycle 23 was 0486 that was the one that gave the super solar flare x28+

Spot on Isatsuki San.

SWL has excellent archive material! Well done guys

Newbie

Also I notice 0720 comes in at no. 8

Oh well never mind!

Edited May 27, 2022 by Newbie

[Bedreamon]

On 5/26/2022 at 1:28 PM, mozy said:

... Don't tell me you're saying you had the "super sunspot" prediction correct with AR3014.. Now that's reaching lmao..

It kinda feels like his predictions are changed after things occur, which seems like a bad way to go about predicting and researching space weather in my amateur opinion. I'm all for additional research into how sunspots occur, but I'm not sure the current methods are working out.

[Archmonoth]

3 hours ago, Bedreamon said:

It kinda feels like his predictions are changed after things occur, which seems like a bad way to go about predicting and researching space weather in my amateur opinion. I'm all for additional research into how sunspots occur, but I'm not sure the current methods are working out.

Most of the predictions are a high frequency of attempts, so some of them stick. Within this last page he said X class flares, but no time frame. 

 

I've tried to ask him what he could change in his predictions when something isn't accurate, but no response. In his ResearchGate link he mentions "major problems" but those aren't defined either. 

 

The basis of these predictions are planetary alignments, so correcting a prediction would be mean looking at other aspects of a complex system. I think he is looking for simple answers, and complexity is not something he wants to include. 

Edited May 28, 2022 by Archmonoth

[Vince]

On 5/26/2022 at 6:16 PM, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:

We were lucky that AR3014 only slightly reacted to the Triple. However AR3014 isn’t finished. According to our calculations it should be able to return twice. And it could grow bigger. 

Anyway, we have another huge prediction right! We calculated a supersunspot, see our file on Researchgate, and AR 3014 was indeed the largest sunspot from cycle 25! It has the potential to grow even larger. We hope not, because then it will have very large X flare potential.

Here you find a comparison between AR 3014 and AR 0720, the largest group from solar cycle 23:

Déjà-vu all over? Not quite. | STCE

https://www.stce.be/news/592/welcome.html

 

£we calculated" ... R I DI C O U L O S 

[Patrick P.A. Geryl]

Thanks for clarifying my fault. I was on pain drugs after my operation and wasn’t thinking clearly. Back clearly thinking now.

Anyway, I checked an older prediction. I have now the two biggest sunspots of Solar Cycle 25 right! Any mathematicians who can calculate the odds that this is possible? They are 1.5 year apart! I don’t think any astronomer ever did this…

I appreciate if you clarify things, but please stay relevant.

Thank you.

This is from an old post How to calculate sunspots beforehand:
 

STRONG EVIDENCE FOR THE PREDICTED AND CALCULATED SUPERSTRONG SUNSPOT

 

A FEW WEEKS AGO WE PUBLISHED THIS

DATE TO WATCH

November 15 (00:45)

November 12 (02:15)- 20 (14:00), 2020 Triple Line Up    Vesta – Venus - Jupiter

November 14 (02:00) – 17 (16:00), 2020 Triple Line Up   Vesta – Mercury - Pallas

November 14 (04:00)- 20 (04:45), 2020 Triple Line Up   Mercury – Ceres – Neptune

November 15 (00:45) – 16 (15:45), 2020: Conjunction Mercury - Venus and the Sun

November 15 (14:00)- 23 (20:15), 2020 Triple Line Up   Venus – Ceres – Neptune

November 15  (22:15) - 18 (16:30), 2020 Triple Line Up   Uranus – Earth - Mercury

By my knowledge there hasn't been a strong sunspot on the farside for this cycle... Can anybody confirm?

This is from the farside on November 14

This is from the farside on November 15!

November 16...

[Patrick P.A. Geryl]

New complex sunspots

Fast growing sunspot with low X flare potential

June 7 (14:30)

June 7 (04:00) – 8 (15:00), 2022: Opposition Mercury – Ceres across the Sun

June 7 (14:30) – July 1 (09:30), 2022 Triple Line Up Uranus – Pallas – Mercury

 June 9-10

May 26 (21:30) – July 22 (18:15), 2022 Triple Line Up Chiron – Jupiter - Vesta

June 1 (04:15) – 29 (00:15), 2022 Triple Line Up Neptune – Jupiter - Venus

June 9 (15:15) – 12 (02:15), 2022: Conjunction Neptune - Venus and the Sun

June 9 (23:45) – 12 (06:30), 2022: Conjunction Jupiter - Venus and the Sun

June 10 (07:15) – 13 (14:45), 2022 Triple Line Up Uranus – Venus – Earth

June 17 (22:00)

June 17 (01:15) – 18 (03:00), 2022: Conjunction Mercury - Saturn and the Sun

June 17 (22:00) – 24 (12:30), 2022 Triple Line Up Pluto – Mercury – Ceres

June 22 (03:00)

June 22 (01:00) – 24 (11:15), 2022: Conjunction Chiron - Venus and the Sun

June 22 (03:00) - 29 (15:00), 2022 Triple Line Up Juno – Mars – Venus

Edited May 31, 2022 by Patrick P.A. Geryl

[Patrick P.A. Geryl]

Op 26/5/2022 om 18:16, Patrick P.A. Geryl zei:

We were lucky that AR3014 only slightly reacted to the Triple. However AR3014 isn’t finished. According to our calculations it should be able to return twice. And it could grow bigger. 

Anyway, we have another huge prediction right! We calculated a supersunspot, see our file on Researchgate, and AR 3014 was indeed the largest sunspot from cycle 25! It has the potential to grow even larger. We hope not, because then it will have very large X flare potential.

Here you find a comparison between AR 3014 and AR 0720, the largest group from solar cycle 23:

Déjà-vu all over? Not quite. | STCE

https://www.stce.be/news/592/welcome.html

 

We predicted AR3014 is able to return twice and grow bigger…

220601_00_synch_NRT.jpg 2.125×1.179 pixels


http://jsoc.stanford.edu/data/timed/td_farside/2022/2022.06/synch/220601_00_synch_NRT.jpg

 

[3gMike]

8 hours ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:

We predicted AR3014 is able to return twice and grow bigger…

220601_00_synch_NRT.jpg 2.125×1.179 pixels


http://jsoc.stanford.edu/data/timed/td_farside/2022/2022.06/synch/220601_00_synch_NRT.jpg

 

Patrick,

I'm not sure what you are attempting to indicate with this post. Are you saying that AR3014 has grown, or that it will be returning?

In fact the image indicates a fairly large area of magnetic activity, which covers the longitudes previously associated with both AR3014 and AR3011. As we have seen from a number of earlier events, this does not mean that the regions will return, or that they have grown. Most recently I suggested that a large area in the southern hemisphere might be linked to old AR3006, but in fact all that returned was a large area of faculae.

[WildWill]

 

On 6/2/2022 at 2:42 AM, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:

We predicted AR3014 is able to return twice and grow bigger…

220601_00_synch_NRT.jpg 2.125×1.179 pixels


http://jsoc.stanford.edu/data/timed/td_farside/2022/2022.06/synch/220601_00_synch_NRT.jpg

 

Hi Patrick,

Pardon my ignorance, I’m a resent convert to sun-worship…

But, it seems to me that 3014 didn’t make another pass on the visible side of the sun, much less two. Or am I missing something?

I checked out some of your prediction drivers and methods and, please correct me if I am wrong…

Are you suggesting that you can predict the growth/contraction of sunspot groups based upon alignments of the planets and the major asteroids? That seems like a bit of a stretch to me. With regards to your predictions, having “predicted” 3014 is one datapoint. Tell me, did you predict that 3028 would generate a sunspot. It looked promising on the limb, but all we got was some phage regions until the day before yesterday (June 4) when a small spot appeared and then disappeared very quickly. I would be interested in seeing your predictions for AR 3029. 
 

Also, are you keeping a record of your predictions over say, the last 6 months and evaluating the accuracy over all your predictions? I would like to check that out, if you have it… No offense, but it does really seem pretty far fetched. I would also be interested in understanding what led you to this methodology and this correlation.

Also, with respect to these alignments, it would seem to me that Jupiter would “override” any alignment of minor planets and asteroids. Can you show me why that is not the case?

Cheers!
 

-Will