Newbie Posted June 16, 2022 Share Posted June 16, 2022 (edited) 14 hours ago, WildWill said: This is why we use SI units and follow a rigorous methodology. It’s impossible for me to follow your mathematical arguments and logic. I guess I am not smart enough. Perhaps you should write a book: “sunspots for dummies!” for myself and all the physicists who have it all wrong Please can I have the first copy signed? N. Edited June 16, 2022 by Newbie 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick P.A. Geryl Posted June 16, 2022 Author Share Posted June 16, 2022 57 minuten geleden, Newbie zei: Please can I have the first copy signed? N. Need a more catchy title… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick P.A. Geryl Posted June 17, 2022 Author Share Posted June 17, 2022 Op 13/6/2022 om 07:34, Patrick P.A. Geryl zei: Sunspots sometimes split. Afterwards they could merge again. My guess is that AR3030 is AR3014. Currently it looks like AR3030 is flaring, so that implies a connection between the split one and the other. Developing… It seems AR3030 and AR3032 are merging… So these are old AR3014 like I thought… Op 13/6/2022 om 16:01, 3gMike zei: No, it is not a stretch, because AR3014 was recorded at 87W on 27th May (00:00) and AR3032 was recorded at 46E on 13th June(00:00), so it is just over 3 days from the East limb. At 13.5 (half rotation) + 3.5 = 17 days that seems right. But what makes me certain is that we can compare Carrington longitudes. AR3014 was at Carrington 104 on the 27th May, and AR3032 is at Carrington 106 today. What if AR3030 and AR3032 merge? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick P.A. Geryl Posted June 17, 2022 Author Share Posted June 17, 2022 Op 15/6/2022 om 10:40, 3gMike zei: Thank you for that explanation. So now I could redraw the map to include the fourth alignment Should I have also redrawn the green line to be centred on Jupiter and lay either side of Neptune & Mercury? If I remember correctly, you have previously said that the alignments are somehow bound to particular spots and may cause others to decay. Bearing that in mind, are you saying that long triples will either re-activate old spots or create high activity in new ones - but not both at the same time? Can you please also clarify - does your theory only apply to high activity spots? Based on the alignments in the map above where would you expect sunspots to be formed? We have a new fast growing sunspot today. According the alignments it should appear somewhere on the West… Fingers crossed… maybe a pic to clarify? June 17 22:00 June 17 (01:15) – 18 (03:00), 2022: Conjunction Mercury - Saturn and the Sun June 17 (22:00) – 24 (12:30), 2022 Triple Line Up Pluto – Mercury – Ceres Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3gMike Posted June 17, 2022 Share Posted June 17, 2022 1 hour ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said: We have a new fast growing sunspot today. According the alignments it should appear somewhere on the West… Fingers crossed… maybe a pic to clarify? June 17 22:00 June 17 (01:15) – 18 (03:00), 2022: Conjunction Mercury - Saturn and the Sun June 17 (22:00) – 24 (12:30), 2022 Triple Line Up Pluto – Mercury – Ceres Sorry, I have a very busy day, so will not respond until later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3gMike Posted June 17, 2022 Share Posted June 17, 2022 8 hours ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said: It seems AR3030 and AR3032 are merging… So these are old AR3014 like I thought… Patrick, You are not convincing me ! AR3014 was centred on Carrington 104. It left the west limb on May 27th and had been decaying since 21st May AR3032 is centred on Carrington 106. It has been decaying since the 14th and is now an Alpha. That is old AR3014 AR3030 is centred on Carrington 116. It has been growing since the 14th and is now a Beta. If the two regions merge, the new region would owe much more to AR3030 than to AR3032 6 hours ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said: We have a new fast growing sunspot today. According the alignments it should appear somewhere on the West… Fingers crossed… maybe a pic to clarify? June 17 22:00 June 17 (01:15) – 18 (03:00), 2022: Conjunction Mercury - Saturn and the Sun June 17 (22:00) – 24 (12:30), 2022 Triple Line Up Pluto – Mercury – Ceres Here is the picture you requested. Conjunction in Red and Triple in Green. So, you said a spot will appear in the West. Is that due to the Conjunction? How might it be influenced by the Triple? Please note: Alignment with Ceres seems to be off by quite a bit (picture not very clear - planetoid located to left of C in Ceres) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWill Posted June 17, 2022 Share Posted June 17, 2022 1 hour ago, 3gMike said: Patrick, You are not convincing me ! AR3014 was centred on Carrington 104. It left the west limb on May 27th and had been decaying since 21st May AR3032 is centred on Carrington 106. It has been decaying since the 14th and is now an Alpha. That is old AR3014 AR3030 is centred on Carrington 116. It has been growing since the 14th and is now a Beta. If the two regions merge, the new region would owe much more to AR3030 than to AR3032 Here is the picture you requested. Conjunction in Red and Triple in Green. So, you said a spot will appear in the West. Is that due to the Conjunction? How might it be influenced by the Triple? Please note: Alignment with Ceres seems to be off by quite a bit (picture not very clear - planetoid located to left of C in Ceres) Hi Patrick, 3gMike, all, what about Venus-Jupiter-Neptune? Or is Jupiter “too far ou of alignment. Seems if that was the case, the same would hold for Ceres, wouldn’t it? As Bry pointed out. Just to be clear, your prediction is for a “new, fast growing sunspot” in the west, today, correct? We can monitor it and see how well your prediction holds up. It will provide a data point. I realize this is not an “exact” science in its present form. I would like to continue collecting data points with regards to your theory/methodology through all the predictions for the coming month and we can objectively evaluate your hypothesis. Sound like a plan? WW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick P.A. Geryl Posted June 18, 2022 Author Share Posted June 18, 2022 (edited) 13 uren geleden, 3gMike zei: Patrick, You are not convincing me ! AR3014 was centred on Carrington 104. It left the west limb on May 27th and had been decaying since 21st May AR3032 is centred on Carrington 106. It has been decaying since the 14th and is now an Alpha. That is old AR3014 AR3030 is centred on Carrington 116. It has been growing since the 14th and is now a Beta. If the two regions merge, the new region would owe much more to AR3030 than to AR3032 Here is the picture you requested. Conjunction in Red and Triple in Green. So, you said a spot will appear in the West. Is that due to the Conjunction? How might it be influenced by the Triple? Please note: Alignment with Ceres seems to be off by quite a bit (picture not very clear - planetoid located to left of C in Ceres) Hi Mike, I see one around 50 degrees West! Woowww! This is, as I can see, around the conjunction Saturn-Mercury! also the Adjusted flux increased from 153,7 at 20:00 to 157,0 at 23:00. We calculated our sunspot around 22:00… Edited June 18, 2022 by Patrick P.A. Geryl Flux values added 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3gMike Posted June 18, 2022 Share Posted June 18, 2022 10 hours ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said: Hi Mike, I see one around 50 degrees West! Woowww! This is, as I can see, around the conjunction Saturn-Mercury! also the Adjusted flux increased from 153,7 at 20:00 to 157,0 at 23:00. We calculated our sunspot around 22:00… Hi Patrick, This does potentially sound like a 'hit' for your theory. On this basis it seems that you identify the Conjunction as setting the location, and the Triple as initiating the appearance of a spot. Can you please explain in a bit more detail why that is the case? I note that the region in which the spot arose has been identified as an active region by Solen since June 10th (S7629). Is it reasonable then to suggest that the already active region coming into closer alignment with Mercury could be the only reason that the spot appeared in that location? If that already active region had not been present do you believe that a spot would still have appeared? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWill Posted June 18, 2022 Share Posted June 18, 2022 Hi Patrick! Congratulations on your prediction! What latitude is it located at? Even better, can you post a pic with an arrow? I am not sure which one you are talking about. Maybe you have something…? Can you tell me your prediction for next Saturday? I’m very interested now! WW & Alex too! Speaking of incoming sunspots, the eastern limb has been very quiet for several days now… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick P.A. Geryl Posted June 18, 2022 Author Share Posted June 18, 2022 (edited) 17 uren geleden, 3gMike zei: Hi Patrick, This does potentially sound like a 'hit' for your theory. On this basis it seems that you identify the Conjunction as setting the location, and the Triple as initiating the appearance of a spot. Can you please explain in a bit more detail why that is the case? I note that the region in which the spot arose has been identified as an active region by Solen since June 10th (S7629). Is it reasonable then to suggest that the already active region coming into closer alignment with Mercury could be the only reason that the spot appeared in that location? If that already active region had not been present do you believe that a spot would still have appeared? Hi Mike, Conjunctions and oppositions with the Sun have more power then the Triples. Triples that go through the Sun could probably have an influence. Sunspots can appear above others. Happens more. The other one had only very tiny high resolution spots. Next spot. Can you draw the lines? According to what I see just at the limb… June 22 03:00 June 21 (13:15) – 22 (09:30), 2022: Conjunction Mercury - Mars and the Sun June 22 (01:00) – 24 (11:15), 2022: Conjunction Chiron - Venus and the Sun June 22 (03:00) - 29 (15:00), 2022 Triple Line Up Juno – Mars – Venus Edited June 19, 2022 by Patrick P.A. Geryl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3gMike Posted June 19, 2022 Share Posted June 19, 2022 13 hours ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said: Hi Mike, Conjunctions and oppositions with the Sun have more power then the Triples. Triples that go through the Sun could probably have an influence. Sunspots can appear above others. Happens more. The other one had only very tiny high resolution spots. Next spot. Can you draw the lines? According to what I see just at the limb… June 22 03:00 June 21 (13:15) – 22 (09:30), 2022: Conjunction Mercury - Mars and the Sun June 22 (01:00) – 24 (11:15), 2022: Conjunction Chiron - Venus and the Sun June 22 (03:00) - 29 (15:00), 2022 Triple Line Up Juno – Mars – Venus Patrick, Here is the image you requested. This seems like an interesting layout. Do the two conjunctions suggest that there will be two sunspots arising simultaneously at the time of the triple line up ? Does the relatively short triple indicate a weak response? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newbie Posted June 19, 2022 Share Posted June 19, 2022 On 6/17/2022 at 5:22 PM, Patrick P.A. Geryl said: We have a new fast growing sunspot today. According the alignments it should appear somewhere on the West… Fingers crossed… maybe a pic to clarify? I'm afraid your dear wee spot has vanished. I can't see it anymore. N. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick P.A. Geryl Posted June 19, 2022 Author Share Posted June 19, 2022 (edited) 29 minuten geleden, Newbie zei: I'm afraid your dear wee spot has vanished. I can't see it anymore. N. still there in high resolution. Spots are hard to see beyond 70 degrees… unless quite big. only 1 day old… and most basic formula possible… so nothing big expected… Edited June 19, 2022 by Patrick P.A. Geryl 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newbie Posted June 19, 2022 Share Posted June 19, 2022 5 minutes ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said: still there in high resolution. Spots are hard to see beyond 70 degrees… unless quite big. Thanks you're right, can't see it in low res. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3gMike Posted June 19, 2022 Share Posted June 19, 2022 Patrick, I've produced another map based on your prediction for Jun 26th Conjunction looks O.K. but the Triple is a bit off. Assuming the displacement is acceptable for the Triple, should that not mean that Neptune is also included in the Conjunction? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick P.A. Geryl Posted June 19, 2022 Author Share Posted June 19, 2022 4 minuten geleden, 3gMike zei: Patrick, I've produced another map based on your prediction for Jun 26th Conjunction looks O.K. but the Triple is a bit off. Assuming the displacement is acceptable for the Triple, should that not mean that Neptune is also included in the Conjunction? just a day off… May 17 (13:00) – June 25 (18:15), 2022: Conjunction Neptune - Jupiter and the Sun sunspot on the limb. Will be visible on GONG AFTER A FEW DAYS… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick P.A. Geryl Posted June 30, 2022 Author Share Posted June 30, 2022 Op 19/6/2022 om 18:02, 3gMike zei: Patrick, I've produced another map based on your prediction for Jun 26th Conjunction looks O.K. but the Triple is a bit off. Assuming the displacement is acceptable for the Triple, should that not mean that Neptune is also included in the Conjunction? The next complex one if for July 14…. July 2 (11:00) June 27 (01:00) – July 28 (23:00), 2022 Triple Line Up Ceres – Venus – Juno June 27 (03:45) – July 8 (20:00), 2022 Triple Line Up Pluto – Vesta – Venus June 29 (07:15) – July 11 (20:45), 2022 Triple Line Up Uranus – Pallas – Venus July 2 (11:00) – 3 (00:30), 2022: Conjunction Mercury - Venus and the Sun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3gMike Posted June 30, 2022 Share Posted June 30, 2022 2 hours ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said: The next complex one if for July 14…. July 2 (11:00) June 27 (01:00) – July 28 (23:00), 2022 Triple Line Up Ceres – Venus – Juno June 27 (03:45) – July 8 (20:00), 2022 Triple Line Up Pluto – Vesta – Venus June 29 (07:15) – July 11 (20:45), 2022 Triple Line Up Uranus – Pallas – Venus July 2 (11:00) – 3 (00:30), 2022: Conjunction Mercury - Venus and the Sun Patrick, I've produced map based on the details given for July 2nd. Is the July 14th reference an error ? I do not see anything from your prediction for June 26th. Was that a fail? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick P.A. Geryl Posted June 30, 2022 Author Share Posted June 30, 2022 (edited) 54 minuten geleden, 3gMike zei: Patrick, I've produced map based on the details given for July 2nd. Is the July 14th reference an error ? I do not see anything from your prediction for June 26th. Was that a fail? Sorry, I did mean after July 2, the next one is July 14-16. June 26th is on the Farside. But is low complex. The one from July 2 is probably on the Farside also. It is the most complex in weeks, but not highly. So you can publish the map of July 2 there is activity on the Farside… could be reactivation of old 3014. Edited June 30, 2022 by Patrick P.A. Geryl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3gMike Posted June 30, 2022 Share Posted June 30, 2022 26 minutes ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said: Sorry, I did mean after July 2, the next one is July 14-16. June 26th is on the Farside. But is low complex. The one from July 2 is probably on the Farside also. It is the most complex in weeks, but not highly. So you can publish the map of July 2 there is activity on the Farside… could be reactivation of old 3014. Map for July 2nd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWill Posted June 30, 2022 Share Posted June 30, 2022 1 hour ago, 3gMike said: Map for July 2nd. Hi Patrick, What about Earth, Venus & Uranus? And what’s with Pluto, I don’t see an alignment there… can you clue me in? Oh, what about Saturn, Jupiter & Uranus? Saturn, Mars & Ceres? Good Morning & Thank You WW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Archmonoth Posted June 30, 2022 Share Posted June 30, 2022 3 hours ago, 3gMike said: Map for July 2nd. Looks like Jupiter and Neptune are in alignment too. Oh, and Eris is part of the Venus Mercury alignment if you give the same -/+ 5 degrees smudging. Personally, I think the terms for alignment are vague enough and frequent enough for there to be something going on every week and month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3gMike Posted June 30, 2022 Share Posted June 30, 2022 7 minutes ago, Archmonoth said: Personally, I think the terms for alignment are vague enough and frequent enough for there to be something going on every week and month. I tend to agree. I'm supporting Patrick by producing the maps in an effort to get some evidence that will let us evaluate his theory more precisely. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWill Posted July 2, 2022 Share Posted July 2, 2022 On 6/30/2022 at 10:40 AM, WildWill said: Hi Patrick, What about Earth, Venus & Uranus? And what’s with Pluto, I don’t see an alignment there… can you clue me in? Oh, what about Saturn, Jupiter & Uranus? Saturn, Mars & Ceres? Good Morning & Thank You WW Howdy 3G! I saw all these”alignments “ that were not marked, etc, nor included in Patrick’s predictions. Can you tell me what I’m missing here? Thanks! WW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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