Archmonoth Posted December 27, 2022 Share Posted December 27, 2022 12 hours ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said: We will see December 28 in the late afternoon if it is on the earthside… according to the alignments, it has a high chance… High chance of what? Sunspots? Flares? CMES? M-Class? X-class? Or is this something we where can just fill in the blanks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted December 28, 2022 Share Posted December 28, 2022 You may experiment with different summary formats. That is what I did a few times for my tornado outbreak forecast prediction template to simplify to what is needed and have different event possibilities within reasonable ranges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick P.A. Geryl Posted December 30, 2022 Author Share Posted December 30, 2022 The calculated complex sunspot should be the one incoming around the same altitude as 3176. Both are related to a conjunction with Mercury. We will know shortly. Fast growth till January 7 and earth facing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted December 30, 2022 Share Posted December 30, 2022 And that mostly backfires because we don't know what all the region has been doing on the other side of the Sun besides the larger flares peaking over. Flashback to mid December. On 12/23/2022 at 1:37 AM, Patrick P.A. Geryl said: We only do really complex sunspots. The above flares were induced by a higher solar flux. C flares become M flares in low complex sunspots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Archmonoth Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 20 hours ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said: We will know shortly. Fast growth till January 7 and earth facing. Will you know? Is there an outcome where you are incorrect? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick P.A. Geryl Posted January 6, 2023 Author Share Posted January 6, 2023 Formula sunspot 3183 January 1 (17:45) – 7 (05:15), 2023 Triple Line Up Pluto – Venus – Pallas December 11 (11:15) – January 4 (16:15), 2023 Triple Line Up Jupiter – Vesta - Venus January 3 (07:30) – 5 (16:45), 2023: Conjunction Venus - Saturn and the Sun January 3 (16:00) - 15 (01:00), 2023 Triple Line Up Saturn – Vesta - Juno The flipping of the polar fields make things quite complicated. Reactions that were easier to predict become now complicated. There are multiple sunspots that could react to the same new alignments. We will see if 3183 reacts to this alignment January 6 (09:15) – 31 (22:30), 2023 Triple Line Up Jupiter – Vesta – Venus The flipping of the poles gives strong interactions between the hemispheres. We are now at solar maximum. The birth of a sunspot will still be possible to calculate. Also if it has potential. But with so many possible reactions, it will be impossible to make a more calculated outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 We’re definitely not at maximum yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick P.A. Geryl Posted January 6, 2023 Author Share Posted January 6, 2023 56 minuten geleden, Orneno zei: We’re definitely not at maximum yet. Depends from the northern polar field. The southern flipped. The average is close. When the northern flips, Solar max is months away. Keep an eye on the northern… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 (edited) 1 hour ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said: Depends from the northern polar field. The southern flipped. The average is close. When the northern flips, Solar max is months away. Keep an eye on the northern… Yes, keep watch over the next half year or year before saying something happened. Say 2 Earth directed CMEs launch around the same time and are roughly the same speed. One shock arrives, but is it both CMEs arriving or will another shock come later? You need to let things play out to come to a conclusion and it takes time. --- And a real life example with Earth's weather. The 2013 El Reno tornado was rated EF5 with mobile radars recording one of the top 2 strongest wind speeds ever documented in excess of 300mph. The tornado was later downgraded to EF3 due to lack of damage indicators. Edited January 6, 2023 by Jesterface23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick P.A. Geryl Posted January 8, 2023 Author Share Posted January 8, 2023 (edited) All the sunspots with Mercury will rapidly go down from today till January 22, outside a few small bumps. No long line ups with Mercury. Sunspots with Venus stay activated… January 6 (09:15) – 31 (22:30), 2023 Triple Line Up Jupiter – Vesta – Venus January 9 (14:30) – 11 (00:45), 2023 Triple Line Up Saturn – Venus - Mercury January 15 (13:30) – 20 (22:00), 2023 Triple Line Up Pluto – Venus - Mars January 16 (19:45) – 18 (05:30), 2022 Triple Line Up Venus - Mercury – Ceres January 20 (15:45) – 22 (06:00), 2023 Triple Line Up Neptune – Venus - Mercury January 21 (10:00) – 24 (10:30), 2023 Triple Line Up Saturn – Venus - Earth January 22 (01:45) – February 1 (20:00), 2023 Triple Line Up Chiron – Jupiter - Mercury January 22 (20:15) – February 6 (08:30), 2023 Triple Line Up Chiron – Vesta – Venus January 25 (00:30) - February 24 (01:00), 2023 Triple Line Up Chiron – Jupiter - Venus January 25 (17:15) - 29 (09:30), 2023 Triple Line Up Pallas – Earth – Mercury January 27 (13:30) – February 1 (23:30), 2023 Triple Line Up Chiron – Vesta – Mercury January 29 (09:45) – 31 (03:15), 2023 Triple Line Up Chiron – Venus - Mercury January 29 (12:00) – 31 (01:30), 2023 Triple Line Up Vesta – Venus - Mercury January 29 (18:00) – February 4 (00:45), 2023 Triple Line Up Jupiter – Vesta – Mercury January 29 (20:15) – 31 (12:15), 2023 Triple Line Up Jupiter – Venus - Mercury These are the only alignments for January 13… January 13 January 3 (16:00) - 15 (01:00), 2023 Triple Line Up Saturn – Vesta - Juno January 6 (09:15) – 31 (22:30), 2023 Triple Line Up Jupiter – Vesta – Venus January 12 (23:45) – February 17 (20:30), 2023: Conjunction Chiron - Jupiter and the Sun Edited January 8, 2023 by Patrick P.A. Geryl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick P.A. Geryl Posted January 17, 2023 Author Share Posted January 17, 2023 3190 is the formula born January 3 and not 3183 as I previously thought… long living sunspot… Several rounds possible… January 1 (17:45) – 7 (05:15), 2023 Triple Line Up Pluto – Venus – Pallas December 11 (11:15) – January 4 (16:15), 2023 Triple Line Up Jupiter – Vesta - Venus January 3 (07:30) – 5 (16:45), 2023: Conjunction Venus - Saturn and the Sun January 3 (16:00) - 15 (01:00), 2023 Triple Line Up Saturn – Vesta - Juno 2 complex ones coming… January 12 (23:45) – February 17 (20:30), 2023: Conjunction Chiron - Jupiter and the Sun January 22 (01:45) – February 1 (20:00), 2023 Triple Line Up Chiron – Jupiter –Mercury? January 25 (00:30) - February 24 (01:00), 2023 Triple Line Up Chiron – Jupiter –Venus? January 14 (06:30) – 25 (07:30), 2023 Triple Line Up Jupiter – Juno - Ceres January 18 (18:15) – 26 (01:00), 2023 Triple Line Up Jupiter – Juno - Earth January 24 (11:45) – 25 (15:45), 2023: Opposition Mercury - Vesta and the Sun January 25 (07:45) – 26 (11:15), 2023: Opposition Mercury - Jupiter and the Sun January 25 (10:45) – 26 (13:45), 2023: Opposition Mercury - Chiron and the Sun January 25 (17:15) - 29 (09:30), 2023 Triple Line Up Pallas – Earth – Mercury and January 12 (23:45) – February 17 (20:30), 2023: Conjunction Chiron - Jupiter and the Sun January 22 (01:45) – February 1 (20:00), 2023 Triple Line Up Chiron – Jupiter - Mercury January 22 (20:15) – February 6 (08:30), 2023 Triple Line Up Chiron – Vesta – Venus January 27 (13:30) – February 1 (23:30), 2023 Triple Line Up Chiron – Vesta – Mercury January 29 (18:00) – February 4 (00:45), 2023 Triple Line Up Jupiter – Vesta – Mercury January 27 (13:30) – February 1 (23:30), 2023 Triple Line Up Chiron – Vesta – Mercury January 28 (08:00) – May 14 (07:00), 2023 Triple Line Up Chiron – Jupiter - Vesta January 29 (09:45) – 31 (03:15), 2023 Triple Line Up Chiron – Venus - Mercury January 29 (18:00) – February 4 (00:45), 2023 Triple Line Up Jupiter – Vesta – Mercury January 29 (20:15) – 31 (12:15), 2023 Triple Line Up Jupiter – Venus - Mercury Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 9 hours ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said: January 1 (17:45) – 7 (05:15), 2023 Triple Line Up Pluto – Venus – Pallas December 11 (11:15) – January 4 (16:15), 2023 Triple Line Up Jupiter – Vesta - Venus January 3 (07:30) – 5 (16:45), 2023: Conjunction Venus - Saturn and the Sun Would there be any color legend for anyone else with no so good of a memory with some things? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick P.A. Geryl Posted January 17, 2023 Author Share Posted January 17, 2023 2 uren geleden, Jesterface23 zei: Would there be any color legend for anyone else with no so good of a memory with some .Sunspot Formation 2022 Purple: end of Triple Black Triple Red conjunction or opposition explained here (PDF) How we Predicted the Complexity of AR 2975. Available from: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/359993083_How_we_Predicted_the_Complexity_of_AR_2975 [accessed Jan 17 2023]. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 5 hours ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said: Purple: end of Triple Black Triple Red conjunction or opposition explained here (PDF) How we Predicted the Complexity of AR 2975. Available from: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/359993083_How_we_Predicted_the_Complexity_of_AR_2975 [accessed Jan 17 2023]. Okay, so the next step. Pretend you turn on the TV to check the weather and they show different forecast model products and don't say what they are when they are forecasting. So, if you get the point off that, without needing to go into a publication that makes people think why am I here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick P.A. Geryl Posted January 18, 2023 Author Share Posted January 18, 2023 6 uren geleden, Jesterface23 zei: Okay, so the next step. Pretend you turn on the TV to check the weather and they show different forecast model products and don't say what they are when they are forecasting. So, if you get the point off that, without needing to go into a publication that makes people think why am I here. I don’t have a TV. But I got your point. The actual problem is that the polar fields are flipping and there are many sunspots interacting. Needs a lot of thinking and math. If I had a few people to help, then it could be solved quickly… Via Jan Alvestad I was able to find that sunspots can be born, disappear and then reappear after a few days as a growing complex sunspot. NASA failed on this extremely important basic fact. So you never, ever can find the sunspot theory as a NASA astrophysicist… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 8 hours ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said: I don’t have a TV. But I got your point. The actual problem is that the polar fields are flipping and there are many sunspots interacting. Needs a lot of thinking and math. If I had a few people to help, then it could be solved quickly… Are you talking about the research or forecasting here? 8 hours ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said: Via Jan Alvestad I was able to find that sunspots can be born, disappear and then reappear after a few days as a growing complex sunspot. NASA failed on this extremely important basic fact. So you never, ever can find the sunspot theory as a NASA astrophysicist… Sunspots can come and go, and come back again. Did NASA point something out in a paper somewhere about it, or not about it? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick P.A. Geryl Posted January 19, 2023 Author Share Posted January 19, 2023 (edited) 14 uren geleden, Jesterface23 zei: Are you talking about the research or forecasting here? Sunspots can come and go, and come back again. Did NASA point something out in a paper somewhere about it, or not about it? I am talking about the research and forecasting. For instance I found in 2014 that during strong conjunctions or oppositions the amount of high resolution sunspots - the small ones - rises considerably. We have now January 18 (23:00) – 20 (10:30), 2023: Opposition Mercury - Venus and the Sun. Expect the sunspot number higher. At the low this was more observable. Most important is how sunspots interact via the planetary alignments. With a little help… No NASA couldn’t have written a paper about it because they don’t count small sunspots! Only Jan Alvestad mentions them… Just follow him and you will see he writes that small sunspots reappear after a day or more… and sometimes the grow in complex ones.. Edited January 19, 2023 by Patrick P.A. Geryl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 (edited) 8 hours ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said: I am talking about the research and forecasting. For instance I found in 2014 that during strong conjunctions or oppositions the amount of high resolution sunspots - the small ones - rises considerably. We have now January 18 (23:00) – 20 (10:30), 2023: Opposition Mercury - Venus and the Sun. Expect the sunspot number higher. At the low this was more observable. Most important is how sunspots interact via the planetary alignments. With a little help… If almost everything can be automated, along with user input, why need help? If you don't know how to build something to do what you need, then you might as well start learning or be stuck where you are. 8 hours ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said: No NASA couldn’t have written a paper about it because they don’t count small sunspots! Only Jan Alvestad mentions them… Just follow him and you will see he writes that small sunspots reappear after a day or more… and sometimes the grow in complex ones.. Maybe you should know this by now, why does NASA not count the small sunspots? Then what would be the difference between an unnamed or named small sunspot region and some filaments that are pretty decent in HMI magnetogram imagery? (The last question just seems interesting to think about. Obviously filaments aren't sunspots) Edited January 19, 2023 by Jesterface23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick P.A. Geryl Posted January 20, 2023 Author Share Posted January 20, 2023 As predicted in my previous post… record amount of sunspots in 2K…539!! Due to the opposition Mercury-Venus At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 21 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 539) and in 15 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 300) SDO/HMI images. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 5 hours ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said: As predicted in my previous post… record amount of sunspots in 2K…539!! Due to the opposition Mercury-Venus At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 21 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 539) and in 15 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 300) SDO/HMI images. There is one issue that came to mind. Your are using completely new data from solen, however far their 2K or 1K archive goes back. The SWPC has consistent synoptic maps going back to 1972 alone and sunspot counts obviously go back further than that. So your prediction may be fine with solen's data, but would have nothing to do with official records. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick P.A. Geryl Posted February 4, 2023 Author Share Posted February 4, 2023 sunspot 3190 will come back next week… The other one in the northern hemisphere is the first complex sunspot I listed after 3190 complex sunspot to be born on February 14 February 11 (16:00) – 19 (11:45), 2023 Triple Line Up Pallas – Venus – Saturn February 13 (22:15) – 17 (02:45), 2023 Triple Line Up Earth – Venus – Neptune February 13 (22:15) – 17 (02:45), 2023 Triple Line Up Earth – Venus – Neptune February 14 (16:00) – 18 (18:00), 2023: Opposition Saturn - Earth and the Sun February 17 (20:00) – 24 (19:45), 2023 Triple Line Up Ceres – Earth-vesta Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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