Adrian Kobyłecki Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 The position is not terrible yet and I can stop being angry if we get a strong flare Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FredSchuller Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 It's flaring again right now (at least, it's trying....) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Adrian Kobyłecki Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 Whether the loops visible in SUVI 171 come from this region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozy Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 Some kind of eruption starting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 14 minutes ago, mozy said: Some kind of eruption starting I came here just to ping you lol. my first thought was "mozy fuming rn" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozy Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 3 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: I came here just to ping you lol. my first thought was "mozy fuming rn" I'm only gonna be fuming a bit if it manages to trigger the region to a bigger flare with an even larger eruption 😅 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
silverstingray Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 It looks like it’s finally producing a CME in 195 Angstroms 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fishaxolotl Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 Sure took it long enough 🤣 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MeteoLatvia Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 M-flare going and X-rays still rising. In current group position on visible disk, is there even chance for CME to be Earth-directed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ester89 Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 The x-ray flow has been increasing for an hour! Finally reached class M 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fishaxolotl Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 Not sure if the bulk will hit, but there could definitely be an earth directed component 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MeteoLatvia Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 4 minutes ago, Fishaxolotl said: Not sure if the bulk will hit, but there could definitely be an earth directed component Thank you! At least something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post tniickck Posted February 28 Popular Post Share Posted February 28 of course it would produce a decent CME after calmly passing the sun-earth line 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
silverstingray Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 10 minutes ago, Fishaxolotl said: Not sure if the bulk will hit, but there could definitely be an earth directed component What’s the bet, that if it hits (after all this waiting) it’ll be a northerly Bz?! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 1 minute ago, tniickck said: of course it would produce a decent CME after calmly passing the sun-earth line is it a decent one? 12 minutes ago, Fishaxolotl said: Not sure if the bulk will hit, but there could definitely be an earth directed component I dont see much dimming and what i can see moving goes west. i may be wrong though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 11 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: is it a decent one? I dont see much dimming and what i can see moving goes west. i may be wrong though Safe to say it isn’t impulsive, at least! Ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
silverstingray Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 (edited) It’s starting to peak out in LASCO C2 imaging. Edited February 28 by silverstingray Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maciej Dunst Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 Nice CME visible, but bulk definitely North-west directed. Maybe a glancing blow possible, but of course we have to wait for LASCO to get more details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wolf star Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 No no no! I do not believe it! I don't want to see it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MeteoLatvia Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 M1.46 and still rising very slowly... Finally clear, long duration flare, now we need to hope for good CME and some Earth-directed component. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 39 minutes ago, MeteoLatvia said: M-flare going and X-rays still rising. In current group position on visible disk, is there even chance for CME to be Earth-directed? If there were a very powerful eruption it would still be quite possible for something to hit us, especially since strong eruptions tend to be deflected westward ("eastward", to the left); and eruptions can happen at an angle too. But there's not much to suggest that this is anything noteworthy. There was some movement in the corona, and something is barely visible on C2 now, but I'd guess it's small, slow, and in the wrong direction. We'll see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MeteoLatvia Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 9 minutes ago, Philalethes said: If there were a very powerful eruption it would still be quite possible for something to hit us, especially since strong eruptions tend to be deflected westward ("eastward", to the left); and eruptions can happen at an angle too. But there's not much to suggest that this is anything noteworthy. There was some movement in the corona, and something is barely visible on C2 now, but I'd guess it's small, slow, and in the wrong direction. We'll see. Thank you for the explanation! I didn't know that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 4 minutes ago, MeteoLatvia said: Thank you for the explanation! I didn't know that. Here is a post from last year with reference to a paper and a plot to visualize the general relationship between CME speed and deflection angle at 1 au; there are of course complicating factors too, like how different Solar wind conditions will affect it as well, but it should be a useful heuristic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
helios Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 Finally a LDE, now that she's turning away from us ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 Still climbing down veeery slowly. what exactly causes Long duration events to be slower in the comedown? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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