AR3112

[Philalethes]

12 minutes ago, Newbie said:

Four cases, were followed of a light bridge over several days.  It was found that as the bridges aged, they grew wider and brighter, the fields weakened and become sparser, and the heating increased. Some evidence was found that the magnetic field began to reorganize itself to accommodate the two azimuth centres (darkest areas) before there were strong signals of a light bridge and the appearance of the dark azimuth centres.

Yes, I believe I came across this when I was reading about it. If I'm reading that right, it would imply that once you see the bridges clearly the field has already reorganized, and the spots in question are weakening.

13 minutes ago, Newbie said:

From my understanding light bridges occur within the umbrae of single spots not between spots.

Yes, indeed. That is what I meant by the bridges stretching across the umbrae from penumbral shore to shore of the spots (i.e. from one side of a single umbra over to the other side of it). Here I've circled around the structures I'm talking about:

[Newbie]

1 minute ago, Philalethes Bythos said:

Yes, I believe I came across this when I was reading about it. If I'm reading that right, it would imply that once you see the bridges clearly the field has already reorganized, and the spots in question are weakening. 

Yes PB, 

I would say the groundwork for the formation of the light bridge would have already been completed and the evidence of this is what we observe as a light bridge leading to an overall degradation in the strength and complexity of the magnetic fields.

10 minutes ago, Philalethes Bythos said:

Yes, indeed. That is what I meant by the bridges stretching across the umbrae from penumbral shore to shore of the spots (i.e. from one side of a single umbra over to the other side of it). Here I've circled around the structures I'm talking about:

I was wondering which ones you were referring to, PB. I didn't see the initial, read earlier, pics of the spots but from what I see they are separate umbrae and you would need to see an actual splitting within each umbra to call them light bridges. When you see that umbra split you will definitely know it as a light bridge. That is my understanding. 

3 hours ago, MinYoongi said:

Have you compared intensigram/Magnetogram ? 

one of the deltas definitely died, i looked at it. the intermediate spots shrank a bit, are not as close anymore i think. but i will ask @Newbie for a second opinion.

Oof what a difference 12+ hours make, Min. There is an overall weakening in the group. Interesting point that Solen is calling 3112 two different AR's and calling the second region BGD and 3112 nothing. That being said the second major group is still delta, and as PB mentioned there is perhaps some minor delta formation in the trailing spots. The tendency is for the group to separate further as it transits the sun.

[MinYoongi]

8 hours ago, Newbie said:

 

Oof what a difference 12+ hours make, Min. There is an overall weakening in the group. Interesting point that Solen is calling 3112 two different AR's and calling the second region BGD and 3112 nothing. That being said the second major group is still delta, and as PB mentioned there is perhaps some minor delta formation in the trailing spots. The tendency is for the group to separate further as it transits the sun.

Yes, absolutely right.

Do you think its 2 AR's? I personally start to think so.

So you think the region is weakening? I think the middle (big) delta is still there but it looks to shrink or drift apart, but im not that good with all the prediction stuff when it comes to rotationspeed et cetera.

i just see its not as deeply red/blue anymore and i think that means the shear is less.

[Philalethes]

8 hours ago, Newbie said:

I was wondering which ones you were referring to, PB. I didn't see the initial, read earlier, pics of the spots but from what I see they are separate umbrae and you would need to see an actual splitting within each umbra to call them light bridges. When you see that umbra split you will definitely know it as a light bridge. That is my understanding. 

Yes, all of those spots I circled were initially single umbrae I believe, with the bridges having formed across them over the course of yesterday, perhaps beginning the day before even. At least that's what it seems like to me; I see that e.g. the largest spot was previously already divided into two, but it seems like that division still existed a bit to the right of what I think is the bridge, while the bottom spot seems to clearly have been split. I could be wrong.

Edited October 5, 2022 by Philalethes Bythos

[Solarflaretracker200]

Well this sunspot may be a failure. 

[Landon Moeller]

 

1 minute ago, Solarflaretracker200 said:

Well this sunspot may be a failure. 

Agree. The only thing of interest is the trailer region growth over the last 24 hours (black box), but otherwise it’s just a dud. 

[Newbie]

3 hours ago, Philalethes Bythos said:

Yes, all of those spots I circled were initially single umbrae I believe, with the bridges having formed across them over the course of yesterday, perhaps beginning the day before even. At least that's what it seems like to me; I see that e.g. the largest spot was previously already divided into two, but it seems like that division still existed a bit to the right of what I think is the bridge, while the bottom spot seems to clearly have been split. I could be wrong.

The HMI Intensity maps give a better indication of light bridges. To my thinking the intensity of the 'light' of the light bridge just isn't there. I would have liked to have seen the early pics. Magnetogram images don't really show light bridges all that well. When a light bridge is formed, the intensitygram shows you two separate spots separated by this really bright area. 

N.

4 hours ago, MinYoongi said:

Yes, absolutely right.

Do you think its 2 AR's? I personally start to think so.

So you think the region is weakening? I think the middle (big) delta is still there but it looks to shrink or drift apart, but im not that good with all the prediction stuff when it comes to rotationspeed et cetera.

i just see its not as deeply red/blue anymore and i think that means the shear is less.

In the beginning I think there were arguments for both sides whether there was one or two AR's. Once the call is made they stick with it. Certainly the big delta is still there. Transient deltas have been appearing  and disappearing in the trailing spots. Yes, shear is lessened when the colours are not as intense. The lack of flares from this region tells me that it is weakening. 

N.

Edited October 5, 2022 by Newbie

[Philalethes]

56 minutes ago, Newbie said:

The HMI Intensity maps give a better indication of light bridges. To my thinking the intensity of the 'light' of the light bridge just isn't there. I would have liked to have seen the early pics. Magnetogram images don't really show light bridges all that well. When a light bridge is formed, the intensitygram shows you two separate spots separated by this really bright area.

Yes, I'm primarily thinking of the intensitygrams. Seems like the streaks now dividing the previously intact umbrae are quite bright, ranging from the same intensity as the lightest of the surrounding penumbrae to almost matching the surface elsewhere. Again, I might be wrong, perhaps they should be even brighter.

[Solarflaretracker200]

51 sunspots with this sunspot region. That's the most i have ever seen

[Landon Moeller]

27 minutes ago, Solarflaretracker200 said:

51 sunspots with this sunspot region. That's the most i have ever seen

That’s a third of the sun too haha 

[MinYoongi]

2 hours ago, Philalethes Bythos said:

Yes, I'm primarily thinking of the intensitygrams. Seems like the streaks now dividing the previously intact umbrae are quite bright, ranging from the same intensity as the lightest of the surrounding penumbrae to almost matching the surface elsewhere. Again, I might be wrong, perhaps they should be even brighter.

And what does that mean/indicate?

 

I cant look at Intensigram/Magnetogram, not updated since 13UTC. Jsoc Stanford has it red and no data for 4 hour, other SDO HMI Pictures are uploaded so why not this? Clearly the Satellite is working and sending data since everything else is getting updated..???

[Solarflaretracker200]

2 hours ago, Landon Moeller said:

That’s a third of the sun too haha 

Dang lol

[Philalethes]

2 hours ago, MinYoongi said:

And what does that mean/indicate?

 

I cant look at Intensigram/Magnetogram, not updated since 13UTC. Jsoc Stanford has it red and no data for 4 hour, other SDO HMI Pictures are uploaded so why not this? Clearly the Satellite is working and sending data since everything else is getting updated..???

As far as I understand it indicates that the field has reoriented itself and that the spots, barring further interactions or unexpected growth, are weakening. Disappointment, in other words.

And yes, I thought that was weird too; just as I was working on automating downloading them every 15 minutes to store a few days' worth at a time and tried to check the date repeatedly, not understanding why the date wasn't progressing; I quickly realized the problem was apparently with the SDO data itself not being updated.

After taking a break and checking it out again, it seems now the latest is at 16:15, and has been there for a while.

[mozy]

I feel like it's getting somewhat more complex again with the new spots growing

[CMEHunter]

1 hour ago, mozy said:

I feel like it's getting somewhat more complex again with the new spots growing

I agree, you might be right. When Dr. Tamitha Skov released her forecast briefing a couple days back, she mentioned how regions 3117 and 3115 grew when they transited this longitudinal zone of the sun (the zone that 3112 is currently in), and said that she thought it likely that 3112 could also experience growth in this zone. Maybe this is occurring now? Plus, the x-ray background is back well into the C-range, a sign of possible growth (unless that's only 3110 contributing).

[mozy]

13 minutes ago, CMEHunter said:

I agree, you might be right. When Dr. Tamitha Skov released her forecast briefing a couple days back, she mentioned how regions 3117 and 3115 grew when they transited this longitudinal zone of the sun (the zone that 3112 is currently in), and said that she thought it likely that 3112 could also experience growth in this zone. Maybe this is occurring now? Plus, the x-ray background is back well into the C-range, a sign of possible growth (unless that's only 3110 contributing).

Yh I also watched her forecast & heard that, pretty interesting if that's the case

[Solarflaretracker200]

55 sunspots? Wtf

I didn't even think 40 was possible, let alone 37

By the way, this region may not be a failure after all lol

[MinYoongi]

2 hours ago, mozy said:

I feel like it's getting somewhat more complex again with the new spots growing

May i ask where the new growth is? the big area looks unchanged to 6-8 hours back

I'd appreciate the hint because i dont know where to keep my eyes on  

48 minutes ago, CMEHunter said:

 the x-ray background is back well into the C-range, a sign of possible growth (unless that's only 3110 contributing).

Mostly 3110 and a southeastern region tbh, dont wanna be a negative nancy though

[mozy]

4 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

May i ask where the new growth is? the big area looks unchanged to 6-8 hours back

I'd appreciate the hint because i dont know where to keep my eyes on  

The trailing parts had some potential but that looks to be decaying again, but we still have this.

[SunspotRager93]

Why is this region doing nothing? Like doesn't have the capacity to do something or not?

[MinYoongi]

6 minutes ago, mozy said:

The trailing parts had some potential but that looks to be decaying again, but we still have this.

Is this the only delta currently? The big one seems to have drifted away from each other alot, they still share a penumbra though i guess?

[CMEHunter]

18 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

Mostly 3110 and a southeastern region tbh, dont wanna be a negative nancy though

True, thanks, 3110 looks to be the brightest region on SDO AIA 131 currently 🙁

[MinYoongi]

Just now, CMEHunter said:

True, thanks, 3110 looks to be the brightest region on SDO AIA 131 currently 🙁

If you wanna know who is currently contributing the most try to look at goes 16 suvi (noaa swpc website) 94angstroms.

[Landon Moeller]

I find it funny this new little guy near the equator was able to produce a CME this afternoon, while 3112 still fails to, and it seems it has been days! 

[Newbie]

18 hours ago, Philalethes Bythos said:

Yes, all of those spots I circled were initially single umbrae I believe, with the bridges having formed across them over the course of yesterday, perhaps beginning the day before even. At least that's what it seems like to me; I see that e.g. the largest spot was previously already divided into two, but it seems like that division still existed a bit to the right of what I think is the bridge, while the bottom spot seems to clearly have been split. I could be wrong.

I considered this spot belonging to AR13115 ...... apologies it is unrelated to AR 13112. I believe this may be an example of a light bridge.  From memory this had a single umbra yesterday. 

PB did you happen to notice this spot?

N.

18 hours ago, MinYoongi said:

Do you think its 2 AR's? I personally start to think so.

The latest from SWPC.

24 hr Summary... Solar activity returned to low levels as only C-class flares and enhancements were observed. Region 3110 (N21W93, Cso/beta) rotated to the limb and was too foreshortened for an accurate analysis, but the lack of activity suggested the region weakened. Region 3112 (N22E21, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) continued to be the most impressive group of spots present on the visible disk. The region underwent minor changes and only produced C-class and optical subflares. The region is rather lengthy in heliographic extent (25 deg) and now that it has become less foreshortened, magnetic maps hint the spots could possibly be comprised of three separate, but close proximity regions. This implies less intra-magnetic connectivity and could be a reason why this spot complex has been less active than would be normally expected. However, more observational data will be necessary before any region separation is considered further.

So SWPC are considering separation of the single AR into three ARs if the data points in this direction. 

N.