AR3112

[Solarflaretracker200]

26 minutes ago, Bobofango said:

I'm personally rooting for a Carrington-level event 😬

 

(Not serious)

Well honestly you don't need a Carrington-level event to happen to get KP9 lol

[yungmixa]

I’m like relatively new to this. I followed Space Weather Live on Twitter & I was randomly scrolling yesterday and saw that we had an X class flare. From what I’ve read I’m gathering that the sun is hurling out these flares at unprecedented rates. I’m freaking out and keep seeing the sun spewing more and more everytime I refresh my feed 😫 Is the sun about to explode? What’s the highest amount of flares in one day? What’s happeninggggg

[SpaceWeather5464]

Why is it not erupting  

[Jesterface23]

A loop of the region,

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1AUaGSrEyjih0qDi5CtCmlo6PpjK8S55v/view

[Solarflaretracker200]

8 minutes ago, SpaceWeather5464 said:

Why is it not erupting  

It doesn't happen constant. It's probably waiting to surprise us on the limb or something 🤣

(I'm kidding about the last part)

 

6 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

A loop of the region,

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1AUaGSrEyjih0qDi5CtCmlo6PpjK8S55v/view

It seems to have grown quite a bit! Hopefully it keeps this up! We may get another X class if it does.

Edited October 4, 2022 by Solarflaretracker200

[Sam Warfel]

2 hours ago, yungmixa said:

I’m like relatively new to this. I followed Space Weather Live on Twitter & I was randomly scrolling yesterday and saw that we had an X class flare. From what I’ve read I’m gathering that the sun is hurling out these flares at unprecedented rates. I’m freaking out and keep seeing the sun spewing more and more everytime I refresh my feed 😫 Is the sun about to explode? What’s the highest amount of flares in one day? What’s happeninggggg

We’re having more activity than we have, but it’s nothing that’s not expected, nor hasn’t happened before! The sun goes through an 11-year cycle of high and low flaring. We passed the low point in 2019, and are slowly ramping up to the max in 2025, so the sun is getting more active. 

But activity like the past few days is nothing compared to the times around a Solar Maximum, which means it’s normal and not dangerous. We’ve had many periods like that and been fine. You probably didn’t even notice. For example, we just had an X1 flare. In 2003, we had an X25-45! And yet, there was very little disruption to anything except a few satellites. 
Don’t worry, we can handle a few flares and CMEs!

2 minutes ago, Solarflaretracker200 said:

It seems to have grown quite a bit! Hopefully it keeps this up! We may get another X class if it does.

We have a 35% chance of an X flare, that’s pretty high! It seems the experts agree with you 

[Solarflaretracker200]

3 minutes ago, Orneno said:

We have a 35% chance of an X flare, that’s pretty high! It seems the experts agree with you 

Huh, 35%, it hasn't been that high since....May I think?

Also i won't be surprised if another X class happens. 35% is pretty high like you said.

[SunspotRager93]

6 minutes ago, Orneno said:

We have a 35% chance of an X flare, that’s pretty high!

Seems low tbh...but how exactly does an X class happen if it's only at 35? Just luck or because of its percentage? Sorry if this is a dumb question, im still new. 

[Solarflaretracker200]

Just now, SunspotRager93 said:

Seems low tbh...but how exactly does an X class happen if it's only at 35? Just luck or because of its percentage? Sorry if this is a dumb question, im still new. 

35% for an X class is really high. Usually it's around 1-5% if there is no big regions. So most likely it's because of the percentage, but I don't know. That's just a guess and Orneno may have to explain more. 🤷‍♀️

[Jesterface23]

Given the X1 flare and the spam clicking of the M-Class button, there'd be better odds for another X-Class flare

[Solarflaretracker200]

Just now, Jesterface23 said:

Given the X1 flare and the spam clicking of the M-Class button, there'd be better odds for another X-Class flare

Oh i bet so, I wont be surprised. 

[SpaceWeather5464]

59 minutes ago, Solarflaretracker200 said:

It doesn't happen constant. It's probably waiting to surprise us on the limb or something 🤣

(I'm kidding about the last part)

 

It seems to have grown quite a bit! Hopefully it keeps this up! We may get another X class if it does.

I hope so. Tired of big powerful sunspots like AR3112 coming to the earth-facing side and producing no flares. 

[MinYoongi]

1 hour ago, Jesterface23 said:

Given the X1 flare and the spam clicking of the M-Class button, there'd be better odds for another X-Class flare

yeah but that activity came mostly from 3110

[Jesterface23]

6 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

yeah but that activity came mostly from 3110

The 35% is overall, not just 3112

[MinYoongi]

Just now, Jesterface23 said:

The 35% is overall, not just 3112

I know 🙂 
3112 looks a bit weaker than when i went to sleep 

But the magnetogram looks essentially the same, just the spots changed a bit. 

[Solarflaretracker200]

1 hour ago, SpaceWeather5464 said:

I hope so. Tired of big powerful sunspots like AR3112 coming to the earth-facing side and producing no flares. 

Give it time, it will happen. 

[hamateur 1953]

check out the us vs sun uno game in the memes.  hilarious!! 

1 hour ago, Solarflaretracker200 said:

Give it time, it will happen. 

 

[Newbie]

4 hours ago, SpaceWeather5464 said:

I hope so. Tired of big powerful sunspots like AR3112 coming to the earth-facing side and producing no flares. 

Hello S.W. 5464

It is not correct that AR13112 hasn't produced any 'worthwhile' flares.

In fact at the time of writing there have been 28 C class flares, largest being C9.2 and 7 M class flares largest being M2.9. Just because an Active Region is labeled BGD it is no guarantee to produce X class flares. The delta areas are not the strongest but this can change of course. Total 35 flares.

In comparison AR13110 has produced 27 C class flares, largest being C8 and 5 M class flares largest being M8.8. It also produced one X flare X1.0. Another X flare X 1.1 was in the vicinity but not attributed to this AR. 3110.

Total 33 flares, plus one if you count the X 1.1. This AR has been labeled  Beta but there was an argument for calling it BD, although Solen still does.  It's activity results from its magnetic layout which has an extra layer of complexity.

Both regions have been very active. 

Newbie

 

 

[SpaceWeather5464]

10 hours ago, Newbie said:

Hello S.W. 5464

It is not correct that AR13112 hasn't produced any 'worthwhile' flares.

In fact at the time of writing there have been 28 C class flares, largest being C9.2 and 7 M class flares largest being M2.9. Just because an Active Region is labeled BGD it is no guarantee to produce X class flares. The delta areas are not the strongest but this can change of course. Total 35 flares.

In comparison AR13110 has produced 27 C class flares, largest being C8 and 5 M class flares largest being M8.8. It also produced one X flare X1.0. Another X flare X 1.1 was in the vicinity but not attributed to this AR. 3110.

Total 33 flares, plus one if you count the X 1.1. This AR has been labeled  Beta but there was an argument for calling it BD, although Solen still does.  It's activity results from its magnetic layout which has an extra layer of complexity.

Both regions have been very active. 

Newbie

 

 

ok  

13 hours ago, Solarflaretracker200 said:

Give it time, it will happen. 

Good aurora show this week 😮 

[Archmonoth]

21 hours ago, SunspotRager93 said:

Seems low tbh...but how exactly does an X class happen if it's only at 35? Just luck or because of its percentage? Sorry if this is a dumb question, im still new. 

From what I've seen previous:

The recent activity creates an average background flux. If the flux is in the C range, the X class % is 30%. So, lots of flares recently means the % goes up. 

This is at least how I understand it. 

Edited October 4, 2022 by Archmonoth

[MinYoongi]

how the region looking complexity wise? To me it looks like its decaying..? Background going down too

[Sam Warfel]

1 hour ago, MinYoongi said:

how the region looking complexity wise? To me it looks like its decaying..? Background going down too

Yeah it seems to be a little less potent right now, less flares and background flux is low...

[MinYoongi]

1 minute ago, Orneno said:

Yeah it seems to be a little less potent right now, less flares and background flux is low...

Have you compared intensigram/Magnetogram ? 

one of the deltas definitely died, i looked at it. the intermediate spots shrank a bit, are not as close anymore i think. but i will ask @Newbie for a second opinion.

[Philalethes]

22 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

Have you compared intensigram/Magnetogram ? 

one of the deltas definitely died, i looked at it. the intermediate spots shrank a bit, are not as close anymore i think. but i will ask @Newbie for a second opinion.

It does indeed look like the small delta marked on top previously died, but it also seems like a new one is forming or has formed further to the left, albeit also quite small:

It's relatively far away from the rest, though. That being said there's also the new 3116 above that part of the region, and if that one grows or otherwise interacts with this one it could potentially lead to more complexification. This region will differentially rotate faster than 3116 and pass it over the course of the next days/weeks, which might increase the chance of such interactions.

Also, just a note on my part, if I'm not mistaken those bright lines stretching from penumbral shore to shore over the umbrae of the large spots in the middle delta are so-called "light bridges" (someone correct me if I'm wrong), and I think I read somewhere a few weeks ago that they are generally a sign that the field lines have reoriented themselves so there is less shear, and that it typically signals the impending death, or at least significant weakening, of the spots in question (someone correct that too if that's not quite right either, or provide more information).

[Newbie]

1 hour ago, Philalethes Bythos said:

It does indeed look like the small delta marked on top previously died, but it also seems like a new one is forming or has formed further to the left, albeit also quite small:

It's relatively far away from the rest, though. That being said there's also the new 3116 above that part of the region, and if that one grows or otherwise interacts with this one it could potentially lead to more complexification. This region will differentially rotate faster than 3116 and pass it over the course of the next days/weeks, which might increase the chance of such interactions.

Also, just a note on my part, if I'm not mistaken those bright lines stretching from penumbral shore to shore over the umbrae of the large spots in the middle delta are so-called "light bridges" (someone correct me if I'm wrong), and I think I read somewhere a few weeks ago that they are generally a sign that the field lines have reoriented themselves so there is less shear, and that it typically signals the impending death, or at least significant weakening, of the spots in question (someone correct that too if that's not quite right either, or provide more information).

Hello PB,

There is a disruption of the magnetic fields in light bridges, relative both to neighboring umbrae and to normal, undisturbed penumbrae. This change takes the form of lower intrinsic field strength and sparser, more horizontal fields in the bridges relative to umbrae. The magnetic fields in the bridges remain more vertically oriented, however, than those in undisturbed penumbra. There are systematic upflows observed in the bridge plasma relative to the neighboring umbrae, and the evidence points toward a component that is heated and departs from radiative equilibrium.

Four cases, were followed of a light bridge over several days.  It was found that as the bridges aged, they grew wider and brighter, the fields weakened and become sparser, and the heating increased. Some evidence was found that the magnetic field began to reorganize itself to accommodate the two azimuth centres (darkest areas) before there were strong signals of a light bridge and the appearance of the dark azimuth centres.

From my understanding light bridges occur within the umbrae of single spots not between spots. What I see as paler blue between the two spots you mention is a weakening of the magnetic fields rather than the formation of a light bridge. Therefore you would look for a division within the umbrae themselves as per the diagram to determine a light bridge. 

N.