AR3112

[Solarflaretracker200]

1 minute ago, Orneno said:

Tbh those look more like merged penumbras than deltas 

I thought that wasn’t possible 

[Philalethes]

1 hour ago, Orneno said:

Tbh those look more like merged penumbras than deltas 

If the definition of a delta is two or more spots of different polarity within the same penumbra, then it would mean that the merging of two penumbrae around spots of different polarities would constitute a delta. That's how I've interpreted it all along, at least, and seems to be in line with how the regions are classified by various agencies.

Edited October 2, 2022 by Philalethes Bythos

[MinYoongi]

3 hours ago, Orneno said:

Tbh those look more like merged penumbras than deltas 

But where are the delta(s) then?

[MinYoongi]

8 hours ago, Philalethes Bythos said:

If the definition of a delta is two or more spots of different polarity within the same penumbra, then it would mean that the merging of two penumbrae around spots of different polarities would constitute a delta. That's how I've interpreted it all along, at least, and seems to be in line with how the regions are classified by various agencies.

I agree with you.

 

I have a question - why is the sunspot relatively stable?

[Philalethes]

2 hours ago, MinYoongi said:

I agree with you.

 

I have a question - why is the sunspot relatively stable?

Stable in what sense? In the sense of not complexifying further? That's a complex question as I see it; intuitively the way I think of it is that complex regions form when spots with a lot of shear relative to each other essentially collide, leading to mixing and subsequently reorientation of field lines, which is when flares and CMEs are triggered. In other words, under this general view, once a region has reached the level of complexity resulting from the collision, it generally won't complexify further, and at that point it remains to see what, if anything, occurs as the field reorients itself; it's essentially "all downhill" from there in terms of complexity, with potential fireworks as part of that downhill slope.

That is of course a very simplistic view, and it's probably not perfectly analogous to the actual activity, it's just what it seems to me that tends to happen. Sometimes a region will complexify further "out of nowhere", but then again that could always be because the aforementioned collision hadn't fully taken place, or it could be additional active areas colliding with it (these things tend to happen "under the surface", so getting a good overview of these complex interactions is difficult).

[MinYoongi]

19 minutes ago, Philalethes Bythos said:

Stable in what sense? In the sense of not complexifying further? That's a complex question as I see it; intuitively the way I think of it is that complex regions form when spots with a lot of shear relative to each other essentially collide, leading to mixing and subsequently reorientation of field lines, which is when flares and CMEs are triggered. In other words, under this general view, once a region has reached the level of complexity resulting from the collision, it generally won't complexify further, and at that point it remains to see what, if anything, occurs as the field reorients itself; it's essentially "all downhill" from there in terms of complexity, with potential fireworks as part of that downhill slope.

That is of course a very simplistic view, and it's probably not perfectly analogous to the actual activity, it's just what it seems to me that tends to happen. Sometimes a region will complexify further "out of nowhere", but then again that could always be because the aforementioned collision hadn't fully taken place, or it could be additional active areas colliding with it (these things tend to happen "under the surface", so getting a good overview of these complex interactions is difficult).

Thank you! 

And what do you think about 3112/3 in that sense? has it high shear?

[Philalethes]

39 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

Thank you! 

And what do you think about 3112/3 in that sense? has it high shear?

I still don't know of a good method of reading the available data to find this out, but I'm sure there exists methods, perhaps someone else knows of a simple way to see. I've seen diagrams where you can see more clearly the direction of the field lines from above, I'm not sure if there are such diagrams made on a continuous basis or where to find them in that case, or whether they're tailor-made for demonstration purposes.

Judging by the activity there must at least be a certain amount of shear involved.

Edited October 3, 2022 by Philalethes Bythos

[MinYoongi]

4 hours ago, Philalethes Bythos said:

I still don't know of a good method of reading the available data to find this out, but I'm sure there exists methods, perhaps someone else knows of a simple way to see. I've seen diagrams where you can see more clearly the direction of the field lines from above, I'm not sure if there are such diagrams made on a continuous basis or where to find them in that case, or whether they're tailor-made for demonstration purposes.

Judging by the activity there must at least be a certain amount of shear involved.

yeah. I think it matters how close the spots are to eachother too, like how "slammed" into eachother they are. do you maybe have an update on the delta(s) ?  

[Philalethes]

2 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

yeah. I think it matters how close the spots are to eachother too, like how "slammed" into eachother they are. do you maybe have an update on the delta(s) ?  

Yes, exactly. Essentially the degree of shear combined with how hard they collide would determine how complex they become and the levels of activity, roughly speaking. To simplify further, it's somewhat akin to placing a spring or rubber band under tension, and how it will snap back once released (except the fields are a lot more complex, of course). It's just how I've reduced it to think of it in simpler terms. I believe something similar is the basis of Leif Svalgaard's polar fields model that I read about recently (although I'm not sure how well it has held up to empirical scrutiny over the years), something along the lines of the same principle being the reason for the entire magnetic field of Sol flipping back and forth with each cycle, i.e. that it's essentially oscillating back and forth much like a swing.

As for the deltas of this spot, the situation seems more or less the same as before:

The bottom (outlined in purple previously) does have some separation, and the top (negative) spot doesn't have a very dark umbra, whereas the top one (outlined in green previously) still doesn't have a significant negative umbra at all. The large middle area (outlined in red previously) seems to me to be a clear-cut case of a delta.

[Mogh, Lord of Blood]

Okay so i've Seen that New sunspot is creating X flare class and that's kind of scary, why all of sudden, things are getting scary and dangerous ?

[Vancanneyt Sander]

2 minuten geleden, Mogh, Lord of Blood zei:

Okay so i've Seen that New sunspot is creating X flare class and that's kind of scary, why all of sudden, things are getting scary and dangerous ?

Nothing to be scared about, this is normal for a sun that is nearing its solar maximum in this 25th cycle. Strong solar flares won’t harm us, just enjoy space weather and the magnificent Aurora that may follow.

[Bobofango]

AR3112 looks so hawt rn

[MinYoongi]

24 minutes ago, Bobofango said:

AR3112 looks so hawt rn

why?  

 

32 minutes ago, Vancanneyt Sander said:

Nothing to be scared about, this is normal for a sun that is nearing its solar maximum in this 25th cycle. Strong solar flares won’t harm us, just enjoy space weather and the magnificent Aurora that may follow.

amen  

[Sam Warfel]

29 minutes ago, Bobofango said:

AR3112 looks so hawt rn

Yes, but can it flare more? That is what I’m really interested in

[Vancanneyt Sander]

8 minuten geleden, Orneno zei:

Yes, but can it flare more? That is what I’m really interested in

Looking at the magnetic complexity: yes! But I can only hope it stays strong and not start to decay, if it starts to decay odds will get lower. But if it’s relatively stable or growing we’ll see further activity. Background flux is still high so that’s also good sign.

[Landon Moeller]

16 minutes ago, Vancanneyt Sander said:

Looking at the magnetic complexity: yes! But I can only hope it stays strong and not start to decay, if it starts to decay odds will get lower. But if it’s relatively stable or growing we’ll see further activity. Background flux is still high so that’s also good sign.

Looking at trends, the trailer spots have decayed over the last day or so. More or less the same for leader and intermediate spots

[Mogh, Lord of Blood]

16 minutes ago, Vancanneyt Sander said:

Looking at the magnetic complexity: yes! But I can only hope it stays strong and not start to decay, if it starts to decay odds will get lower. But if it’s relatively stable or growing we’ll see further activity. Background flux is still high so that’s also good sign.

Hum...why do you want such a dangerous thing to get stronger ? I mean it's dangerous for power grid and internet that kind of stuff

 

 

[Landon Moeller]

2 minutes ago, Mogh, Lord of Blood said:

Hum...why do you want such a dangerous thing to get stronger ? I mean it's dangerous for power grid and internet that kind of stuff

 

 

It minimally harms our internet and grid, and a solar flare strong enough to do so is extraordinarely rare. These flares are mostly tracked by people like us to monitor for fun aurora opportunities. There's no danger

 

[Solarflaretracker200]

3 minutes ago, Mogh, Lord of Blood said:

Hum...why do you want such a dangerous thing to get stronger ? I mean it's dangerous for power grid and internet that kind of stuff

 

 

It's rare for that to happen. Only extreme geomagnetic storms (KP9) do that, and they are rare. 

There is nothing to worry about. It can't hurt us. 

[Sam Warfel]

14 minutes ago, Landon Moeller said:

Looking at trends, the trailer spots have decayed over the last day or so. More or less the same for leader and intermediate spots

Well let’s hope the trends reverse and it gets more complex 

[SunspotRager93]

Looks like I missed out on all the action! I guess I need to be on here more haha

[Vancanneyt Sander]

17 minuten geleden, Mogh, Lord of Blood zei:

Hum...why do you want such a dangerous thing to get stronger ? I mean it's dangerous for power grid and internet that kind of stuff

 

 

To get Aurora where I live 😜

the modern power grid can handle extreme solar flares! And internet won’t fail because of space weather. Don’t fall for all the fear mongering of some clickbait media.

[Solarflaretracker200]

25 minutes ago, SunspotRager93 said:

Looks like I missed out on all the action! I guess I need to be on here more haha

Lmao. It can get crazy here when X classes happen! I think that has been my 5 or 6th X class, I would have to look back to see what number this one is. 

[MinYoongi]

hey @Landon Moeller is the shear getting less too? The spots seem to minimally decay, right? I thought i may be trupping and imagining that because noaa said its growing in their forecast discussion.

[Bobofango]

1 hour ago, Solarflaretracker200 said:

It's rare for that to happen. Only extreme geomagnetic storms (KP9) do that, and they are rare. 

There is nothing to worry about. It can't hurt us. 

I'm personally rooting for a Carrington-level event 😬

 

(Not serious)

Edited October 3, 2022 by Bobofango