AR2993/2994: X flare!

[MinYoongi]

1 minute ago, Jack said:

A little different. Here’s the same region imaged from Stereo in it last rotation….

Yeah i think it grew

[Jack]

Then 2 rotations ago when I suspect the ’AREA’ was associated with 2954 and 2955

Two rotations back best image I have unfortunately.

Edited April 16, 2022 by Jack

[Solarflaretracker200]

35 minutes ago, Jack said:

Then 2 rotations ago when I suspect it was 2954 and 2955

Two rotations back best image I have unfortunately.

Not trying to sound snappy, but I am interested. I feel like your saying that AR2954-55 are also AR2975...? Are you getting at that or am I just making up some random theory?

[3gMike]

2 hours ago, Jack said:

Then 2 rotations ago when I suspect it was 2954 and 2955

I can see why you might think that as the latitudes and spacing between spots do look similar, but if you check the Carrington longitudes you will find that 2954 was at 116-120 deg, 2955 was at 105-109 deg. Compare this with 2975 at 75-90 deg and 2976 at 66-75 deg, then also consider that 2984 was at 80 deg.

Interestingly the latest synoptic map has identified the two leading spots as separate new ARs, but has not allocated numbers yet.

Edited April 16, 2022 by 3gMike
typo

[MinYoongi]

56 minutes ago, 3gMike said:

I can see why you might think that as the latitudes and spacing between spots do look similar, but if you check the Carrington longitudes you will find that 2954 was at 116-120 deg, 2955 was at 105-109 deg. Compare this with 2975 at 75-90 deg and 2976 at 66-75 deg, then also consider that 2984 was at 80 deg.

Interestingly the latest synoptic map has identified the two leading spots as separate new ARs, but has not allocated numbers yet.

Theres also some SDO Imagery and it looks like two Beta sunspots but im really shitty at determining that. @Flareguy18 is really good at that!  

[Jack]

3 hours ago, Solarflaretracker200 said:

Not trying to sound snappy, but I am interested. I feel like your saying that AR2954-55 are also AR2975...? Are you getting at that or am I just making up some random theory?

I’m just referring to the area associated during each pass and what was contained within the same bright region. The same as everyone is doing for this one with guesstimates of absolute irrelevant uncertainty. I figured sharing the images might be worth having on the thread.

So it’s the same bright region but, as to what has befallen it in regards to sun spot development it would be impossible to say over such a timeframe. Meaning we all can make of it what we will by claiming it’s 2976 or 2984 whilst pretending to claim 2975 has decayed or pretending it to be 2954 or 2955 or even 2936 but, we do not truly know. What I am saying is that it is the same bright hot spot, nothing more, nothing less.

My mind is, and will, remain openly uncertain upon such theories. For now there are 2 large sun spots that are currently appearing on the earth facing disc and that’s all we know with certainty 👍

 

Edited April 16, 2022 by Jack

[3gMike]

25 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

Theres also some SDO Imagery and it looks like two Beta sunspots

Yes, I would agree with that. It is a bit difficult to see what else is happening nearer the limb. We should get a better view tomorrow, but I do not think we will see the full extent until Monday.

[MinYoongi]

14 minutes ago, 3gMike said:

Yes, I would agree with that. It is a bit difficult to see what else is happening nearer the limb. We should get a better view tomorrow, but I do not think we will see the full extent until Monday.

So late? 😮 

[Jack]

2 hours ago, 3gMike said:

I can see why you might think that as the latitudes and spacing between spots do look similar, but if you check the Carrington longitudes you will find that 2954 was at 116-120 deg, 2955 was at 105-109 deg. Compare this with 2975 at 75-90 deg and 2976 at 66-75 deg, then also consider that 2984 was at 80 deg.

Interestingly the latest synoptic map has identified the two leading spots as separate new ARs, but has not allocated numbers yet.

You do know that Sun spots develop, move and even change in size over their duration right? 🤷‍♂️

If you’re basing every detail upon their longitudinal gap and previous rotations latitude being maintained then by your theory 2975 should have appeared first less you deem it decayed?

The bright region is the same associated area. What consists within upon each rotation in regards to sun spot development and decay cannot be claimed to be anything of certainty, beyond the same actively bright region.

Edited April 16, 2022 by Jack

[MinYoongi]

24 minutes ago, Jack said:

You do know that Sun spots develop, move and even change in size over their duration right? 🤷‍♂️

If you’re basing every detail upon their longitudinal gap and previous rotations latitude being maintained then by your theory 2975 should have appeared first less you deem it decayed?

The bright region is the same associated area. What consists within upon each rotation in regards to sun spot development and decay cannot be claimed to be anything of certainty, beyond the same actively bright region.

I'm a bit confused by your guys discussion.. is the topic if its 2975 or another/new region?

[Solarflaretracker200]

4 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

I'm a bit confused by your guys discussion.. is the topic if its 2975 or another/new region?

I made this topic about AR2975 returning. So yes this should be about this region. 

[MinYoongi]

3 minutes ago, Solarflaretracker200 said:

I made this topic about AR2975 returning. So yes this should be about this region. 

That was again.. not what i asked exactly... but i'll figure it out   

I'm still interested in what it will look like tomorrow and how much is still missing of it.

[Solarflaretracker200]

1 minute ago, MinYoongi said:

That was again.. not what i asked exactly... but i'll figure it out   

I'm still interested in what it will look like tomorrow and how much is still missing of it.

And of corse I read that wrong. 

Edited April 16, 2022 by Solarflaretracker200

[MinYoongi]

19 minutes ago, Solarflaretracker200 said:

And of corse I read that wrong. 

No Problem, but it's getting kinda tiring to read that 3 times per day so maybe we should try to communicate more productive with each other! I'll try to be more clear from now on friend ❤️ 

[Sam Warfel]

31 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

I'm a bit confused by your guys discussion.. is the topic if its 2975 or another/new region?

We’ll rename this to the new designation when it gets one

[Solarflaretracker200]

8 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

No Problem, but it's getting kinda tiring to read that 3 times per day so maybe we should try to communicate more productive with each other! I'll try to be more clear from now on friend ❤️ 

I think I just need to read right. 

[Sam Warfel]

More coming! Another significant spot is showing up behind the two large leading ones! @MinYoongi tagging you cause you seem to be very invested in following this AR 😆

[MinYoongi]

7 minutes ago, Orneno said:

More coming! Another significant spot is showing up behind the two large leading ones! @MinYoongi tagging you cause you seem to be very invested in following this AR 😆

Whats with the ones inbetween those 3 ? Are those even Sunspots? 

Thank you for tagging me friend. but its 4am and i'd rather slept 😀! Haha

[mozy]

Here we go, another M-class now

[MinYoongi]

4 minutes ago, mozy said:

Here we go, another M-class now

I sadly cant see which one of it exactly is it. Maybe i have to wait for SDO. 

Looks like it is the Top one of 2 visible.

[LunarLights58]

And the M class is already over

[Sam Warfel]

52 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

I sadly cant see which one of it exactly is it. Maybe i have to wait for SDO. 

Looks like it is the Top one of 2 visible.

You mean where the flare came from? It came from the cluster of small spots midway between the two large spots. 

[MinYoongi]

Just now, Orneno said:

You mean where the flare came from? It came from the cluster of small spots midway between the two large spots. 

U think? In SDO it looked like the big upper spot. Do you have a video maybe? I thought the bigger ones were more flarey.

[Sam Warfel]

3 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

U think? In SDO it looked like the big upper spot. Do you have a video maybe? I thought the bigger ones were more flarey.

I don't have an image from this most recent flare, because it's over and it's not in the "last 48 hour" vid yet.  However, I am 100% sure of the source.  I used the AIA 1600 channel to confirm this, on that one strong flares are visible as a bright spot, but dimly enough it doesn't overwhelm the source.  The spots are also visible, this is the only channel that can show flares (only strong ones) and sunspots at the same time, helping you tell their precise origin.

As I said, I don't have the image of this most recent flare, but if you watch this video, you can see that although some of the flares come from the large spots, many come from between.  My guess is that there are many smaller spots in that area between the two big ones we can't see yet due to the extreme angle on the limb.  Remember, we're looking at this almost sideways, and the spots are slightly recessed.  We can see the big ones, but the small ones will tend to disappear.  Additionally, from what I can tell of the magnetogram imagery, this area between the two large spots may be where most of the magnetic complexity is located, and thus the flares. https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/data/latest48.php?q=1600

It's not about size of spot, it's about magnetic complexity.  The two big spots are large, but they appear to be pretty simple, and thus not as logical for the precise origin of the major flares.  (They definitely do contribute to the region as a whole however, being so nearby.)

[MinYoongi]

2 minutes ago, Orneno said:

I don't have an image from this most recent flare, because it's over and it's not in the "last 48 hour" vid yet.  However, I am 100% sure of the source.  I used the AIA 1600 channel to confirm this, on that one strong flares are visible as a bright spot, but dimly enough it doesn't overwhelm the source.  The spots are also visible, this is the only channel that can show flares (only strong ones) and sunspots at the same time, helping you tell their precise origin.

As I said, I don't have the image of this most recent flare, but if you watch this video, you can see that although some of the flares come from the large spots, many come from between.  My guess is that there are many smaller spots in that area between the two big ones we can't see yet due to the extreme angle on the limb.  Remember, we're looking at this almost sideways, and the spots are slightly recessed.  We can see the big ones, but the small ones will tend to disappear.  Additionally, from what I can tell of the magnetogram imagery, this area between the two large spots may be where most of the magnetic complexity is located, and thus the flares. https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/data/latest48.php?q=1600

It's not about size of spot, it's about magnetic complexity.  The two big spots are large, but they appear to be pretty simple, and thus not as logical for the precise origin of the major flares.  (They definitely do contribute to the region as a whole however, being so nearby.)

Thank you for that awesome explanation! I never really watched the AIA channel that u mentioned. I mostly stick to Suvi as its updating faster.