AR2993/2994: X flare!

[Jack]

4 hours ago, 3gMike said:

I agree.  Looking back at the archive, as ARs 2975 and 2976 rotated over the west limb, they were joined by another region AR2984. Trying to estimate the latitude of the two spots just appearing on the eastern limb I am inclined to think that it may actually be 2976 at the higher latitude and 2984 at the lower, but as you rightly say that is just speculation - it is impossible to tell how the different areas evolved on the farside.

I think you’re referring to 2977 and 2980 which were west of 2975 on a slightly North and South axis though they did see decay before making the rotation.

2984 formed almost perfectly between 2975 and 2976. The three were ‘almost’ perfectly on the same latitude.

As has been stated already though, these two are the beginning of what is to potentially come and although we can safely ‘suggest’ that 2975 is/has returned, we can never know with absolute certainty.

When all is said and done the majority of forecasting around space weather is about predicting potential after all and nothing is a certainty.

It’s definately fun to speculate but, what is most important though, is the fact that we have some big players returning and that’s what counts 😉

 

 

Edited April 16, 2022 by Jack

[Solarflaretracker200]

I am trying hard not to excited until this all rotates into view because it seems like every time i get excited for something like this- it dies. Like why? 🤣

By the way, this is interesting- they like split kinda: 

[Jack]

2 minutes ago, Solarflaretracker200 said:

I am trying hard not to excited until this all rotates into view because it seems like every time i get excited for something like this- it dies. Like why? 🤣

A wise move but, there’s nothing wrong with seeing something like this and being excited 😉

for now, we know for certain it has potential and that’s something we had less of before it arrived 👍

[Solarflaretracker200]

1 minute ago, Jack said:

A wise move but, there’s nothing wrong with seeing something like this and being excited 😉

Well- yeah- I know that- maybe it's literally a coincidence every time haha. 

[Jack]

Much like terrestrial weather on active Auroral nights 🤦🏼‍♂️😆

[Solarflaretracker200]

4 minutes ago, Jack said:

Much like terrestrial weather on active Auroral nights 🤦🏼‍♂️😆

Yeah I studied that for as long as i remember before i started watching here. Oh heavy thunderstorm coming in. Ok, lets get excited- no lets not do that lets just wait for it- oh wait its dead before it reached you. First thunderstorm of the year? Ok lets get excited- oh look it died or it went way south of you.  Night thunderstorm. Let's not get excited and wait for it. What? It happens? 

Weird how that works

Edited April 16, 2022 by Solarflaretracker200

[Chris, HB9DFG]

"Service - a double whooper please!"
"Ok, double whooper coming right up!"
"Here it is - enjoy your meal!"

"Hmmm, tasted good - some more available?"
"May be tomorrow, please stay tuned!" 😛

Regards, Chris

 

 

Edited April 16, 2022 by Chris, HB9DFG
Text was lost somehow ;-I

[Solarflaretracker200]

Just now, Chris, HB9DFG said:

Now that looks interesting

[MinYoongi]

14 minutes ago, Solarflaretracker200 said:

Now that looks interesting

Why? 

 

Do you guys think it will be fully over the limb by tomorrow? Are the flares happening right now measured correctly or still not picked up right due to occult?

[mozy]

Hope this is the start of more frequent activity now with this current M-flare kicking up

[Solarflaretracker200]

5 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

Why? 

Because it's not just one boring spot coming over the limb like we usually see. 

[MinYoongi]

2 minutes ago, mozy said:

Hope this is the start of more frequent activity now with this current M-flare kicking up

Yeah happening right now! but my questions still in the room. Is the measurement correct? 

I wish i could be as excited as you but no chance for auroras at my place

[mozy]

4 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

Yeah happening right now! but my questions still in the room. Is the measurement correct? 

I wish i could be as excited as you but no chance for auroras at my place

The spots are still pretty hidden so I would say It's not fully correct no, most likely a bit higher than M 1.0, probably not by much though.

Edited April 16, 2022 by mozy

[AMFinland]

Having a bad day...

But nice to come check on SWL and seeing an M class flare. and I am excited for this return of AR2975.

[Chris, HB9DFG]

Hi MinYoongi

"Do you guys think it will be fully over the limb by tomorrow?"

No, we don't think so... but we think it looks "already" interesting at this state, if they can interact together or will be numbered separately.
So I hope the printscreen as a first info is ok for you anyway.

Have a nice eastertime and best regards!🐰
Chris

 

Edited April 16, 2022 by Chris, HB9DFG

[MinYoongi]

Its so nice and refreshing to see everyone here excited and being so nice to each other. 💕 Twitter's making me lose my mind again 😀

 

2 minutes ago, AMFinland said:

Having a bad day...

But nice to come check on SWL and seeing an M class flare. and I am excited for this return of AR2975.

I hope your day gets better and i hope youre not let down by 2975 and its friends!

 

1 minute ago, Chris, HB9DFG said:

Hi MinYoongi

"Do you guys think it will be fully over the limb by tomorrow?"

No, we don't think so... but we think it looks "already" interesting at this state, if they can interact together or will be numbered separately.
So I hope the printscreen as a first info is ok for you anyway.

Have a nice eastertime and best regards!🐰
Chris

 

Thank you Chris! Wow, so this big region needs some time to roll around, hah? I remember when it was around 2 weeks ago atleast 2 of the 3 regions were connected with each other! Read a whole thread about it. Very interesting stuff. Have a great easter 🙂

[Jack]

With an X-Ray flux above 1.37e-6J m-2 for 39hr+ and counting, I couldn’t care less how it ends up looking. The way it’s firing up is perfectly fine by me right now 👌

Edited April 16, 2022 by Jack

[3gMike]

1 hour ago, Jack said:

I think you’re referring to 2977 and 2980 which were west of 2975 on a slightly North and South axis though they did see decay before making the rotation.

2984 formed almost perfectly between 2975 and 2976. The three were ‘almost’ perfectly on the same latitude.

No, I meant what I said. Check the Archive of sunspot regions for the period April 1st to April 4th and you will see why I say that.

On April 4th 2975 was at N15, 2976 was at N20 and 2984 was at N12.

I estimate that we now see spots at around N12 and N18, hence my suggestion that they would be 2984 and 2976

The spots you refer to left the limb as plages without spots. 2977 was last recorded at N18, 2980 at N04

[Jack]

15 minutes ago, 3gMike said:

No, I meant what I said. Check the Archive of sunspot regions for the period April 1st to April 4th and you will see why I say that.

On April 4th 2975 was at N15, 2976 was at N20 and 2984 was at N12.

I estimate that we now see spots at around N12 and N18, hence my suggestion that they would be 2984 and 2976

The spots you refer to left the limb as plages without spots. 2977 was last recorded at N18, 2980 at N04

I see what you’re suggesting 👍

What does your theory make of 2975 that left the earth facing disc before 2976 and 2984?

It could be the case, guess we’ll never know for certain. One thing is certain right now though. Two are here so far and whatever we ‘think’ about the past, no longer matters one bit 😉

Edited April 16, 2022 by Jack

[MinYoongi]

12 minutes ago, Jack said:

I see what you’re suggesting 👍

What does your theory make of 2975 that left the earth facing disc before 2976 and 2984?

It could be the case, guess we’ll never know for certain. One thing is certain right now though. Two are here so far and whatever we ‘think’ about the past, no longer matters one bit 😉

Do you think more spots will show up or more faculae? If i understand correctly 90% of it is still hidden ?

[Jack]

13 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

Do you think more spots will show up or more faculae? If i understand correctly 90% of it is still hidden ?

Hey Min,

Honestly I would only be guessing. The most recent images are showing some more facula at current. Looking at Stereo A and SDO images certainly suggest there is much more bright area still to come. What that equates to is anyone’s guess.

Here’s an image for the thread archive from its last rotation upon the centre disc.

Here’s how it looked last time it rolled around 👍

Edited April 16, 2022 by Jack

[MinYoongi]

3 minutes ago, Jack said:

The most recent images are showing some more facula at current.

Thank you! May i ask which imagery youre refering to? How can Active Spots and Faculae be distinguished?

[Jack]

Sorry I should have included that image…Best viewed Via SDO HMIIF

It’s not a lot of Facula though really but, it’s appearing more and more. So we’ll have to just wait and see. I think it will take all of 48hrs+ before we see the tail end of this whole area. Especially when we look at it from Stereo A

Edited April 16, 2022 by Jack

[MinYoongi]

13 minutes ago, Jack said:

Sorry I should have included that image…Best viewed Via SDO HMIIF

It’s not a lot of Facula though really but, it’s appearing more and more. So we’ll have to just wait and see. I think it will take all of 48hrs+ before we see the tail end of this whole area. Especially when we look at it from Stereo A

Okay thank you. so you think 2 more days?

Oh, i forgot. Do you think it looks very different from its last rotation?

[Jack]

8 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

Okay thank you. so you think 2 more days?

Oh, i forgot. Do you think it looks very different from its last rotation?

A little different. Here’s the same region imaged from Stereo in it last rotation….