AR2993/2994: X flare!

[Marcel de Bont]

8 uren geleden, Patrick P.A. Geryl zei:

I am sorry to spoil the party… but the latest activity was induced by an opposition Mercury Venus. It ends now at 05:15. Thereafter the sunspot will go down…😱

Patrick really. You can keep your pseudo science in the Other forum please. I think 2975 is disproving your theory rather hard right now with the flux in the M-class over three hours. If topics about alternative science spill over to other forums than the ''Other'' forum or cause a bad atmosphere on the forums we will consider banning it entirely.

1 minuut geleden, MinYoongi zei:

What is overexposing?

No problem! Its not your guys fault. Your coding is really solid 99,99% of the times 

The images are brighter than they normally are, we use bright areas to detect as it indicates flaring. The more bright pixels the easier the system gets tricked. It works 99,9% of the time thank goodness.

[MinYoongi]

2 minutes ago, Marcel de Bont said:

Patrick really. You can keep your pseudo science in the Other forum please. I think 2975 is disproving your theory rather hard right now with the flux in the M-class over three hours. If topics about alternative science spill over to other forums than the ''Other'' forum or cause a bad atmosphere on the forums we will consider banning it entirely.

The images are brighter than they normally are, we use bright areas to detect as it indicates flaring. The more bright pixels the easier the system gets tricked. It works 99,9% of the time thank goodness.

I really appreciate the first statement. 

May i ask when the region will be visible fully for us again? Right now its not showing yet on the SDO Magnetic Maps

[Sam Warfel]

12 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

May i ask when the region will be visible fully for us again? Right now its not showing yet on the SDO Magnetic Maps

On STEREO the bright spot is getting really close to 90 degrees, that’s the earth limb. I don’t know if that first bright spot on STEREO is the one giving the flares/CMEs, but if it is, it’s close, maybe start to see it tomorrow or late tonight, and another day or two for the whole thing to turn onto the earth side, it’s big. 

Edited April 15, 2022 by Orneno

[MinYoongi]

1 minute ago, Orneno said:

On STEREO the bright spot is getting really close to 90 degrees, that’s the earth limb. I don’t know if that first bright spot on STEREO is the one giving the flares/CMEs, but if it is, it’s close, maybe start to see it tomorrow or late tonight, and another day or two for the whole thing to turn onto the earth side, it’s big. 

This would match Noaa saying 15th and 17th for old Regions 2975 and 2976. And how long until Geoeffectiveness? (I think i may made up that word right now 😅) 

Its big,yep! 

 

One thing i wonder is where the F its taking all the energy for the constant flaring from. Never seen a region like this. (But i only ever experienced solar minimum to be fair.)

[Isatsuki San]

34 minutes ago, Marcel de Bont said:

No lo es, lo siento. La detección es problemática cuando SDO sobreexpone así.

well EUV, it was flipped and flipped for a few hours, and I think that's why

[Sam Warfel]

22 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

One thing i wonder is where the F its taking all the energy for the constant flaring from. Never seen a region like this. (But i only ever experienced solar minimum to be fair.

Tbh, it seems similar to 2975 last time around, we saw that and it’s energy. The answer is it gets it from the magnetic complexity, which is driven by the sun’s magnetic dynamo, which we still know very little about, sadly!

[MinYoongi]

2 minutes ago, Orneno said:

Tbh, it seems similar to 2975 last time around, we saw that and it’s energy. The answer is it gets it from the magnetic complexity, which is driven by the sun’s magnetic dynamo, which we still know very little about, sadly!

I also looked at the farside map today and i know theyre not the most precise thing but IF it is to trust, it looks like 2 regions with faculae inbetween, right? i do think they are still magnetically connected and intertwined though.

[arjemma]

I just looked at the latest images from LASCO C3 and it looks like at least 3 CME's have left the region since the eruption started.

[Solarflaretracker200]

Well, well

[Bedreamon]

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/service-interruptions-are-possible-april-18-through-april-20-2022
Now would be a pretty bad time for NOAA maintenance, especially considering the influx of flares and possibly strong geomagnetic storms when it turns towards Earth.

[Solarflaretracker200]

There might be a paroxysm if that happens 😂 

[MinYoongi]

Can we stay somewhat on topic here? Thank you @Bedreamon @Solarflaretracker200

[Solarflaretracker200]

Yeah my bad

[lightpanther]

Maybe 2975 will still produce some fireworks before about the 27th? (night quits here on 26th).

 

After the 26th here there is twilight all night...at least up north...a few days later down in lowlands.

Edited April 15, 2022 by lightpanther

[Solarflaretracker200]

20 minutes ago, lightpanther said:

Maybe 2975 will still produce some fireworks before about the 27th? (night quits here on 26th).

 

After the 26th here there is twilight all night...at least up north...a few days later down in lowlands.

I am confident that this region will still fire off some nice solar flares, but we will see when it rotates into view in approx. 1.5 days or so 

[MinYoongi]

25 minutes ago, lightpanther said:

Maybe 2975 will still produce some fireworks before about the 27th? (night quits here on 26th).

 

After the 26th here there is twilight all night...at least up north...a few days later down in lowlands.

Could be! I hope you get some pretty show, friend.

[Bedreamon]

2 hours ago, MinYoongi said:

Can we stay somewhat on topic here? Thank you @Bedreamon @Solarflaretracker200

I know, but whenever there's... well, anything, related to big/sizeable/etcetera sunspots, I can't help but wonder even though nothing happening.
But, yeah, it'll probably make a lot of pretty aurora.

[LunarLights58]

The X-ray flux has been at C level all day

[Solarflaretracker200]

And now I’m confused: 

 

[MinYoongi]

2 hours ago, Solarflaretracker200 said:

And now I’m confused: 

 

Why are you confused? Its really easy. 2975 is returning but another region emerged north of it. So the Region/s were seeing in the Farside imagery is not purely 2975+2976 but another region that formed during the farside travel accompanies it now.

[Solarflaretracker200]

Just now, MinYoongi said:

Why are you confused? Its really easy. 2975 is returning but another region emerged north of it. So the Region/s were seeing in the Farside imagery is not purely 2975+2976 but another region that formed during the farside travel accompanies it now.

Oh- I- I guess I just read that totally wrong like four times 😂. Well that makes sense. Shoot sorry about that lol

[Sam Warfel]

26 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

Why are you confused? Its really easy. 2975 is returning but another region emerged north of it. So the Region/s were seeing in the Farside imagery is not purely 2975+2976 but another region that formed during the farside travel accompanies it now.

That helps explain how 2975 could have grown as massive as it looked on the farside imagery, if it's actually 3 ARs

[Marcel de Bont]

We can speculate all we want if it is the return of 2975 or not but based on STEREO A it does look like a massive sunspot group or groups in close proximity to each other are on their way. Considering how the X-ray flux is behaving dancing up and down in the C-class and of course the M-flaring yesterday we could be looking at a very interesting week ahead. We do start to see some spots on SDO AIA as well now. Cant hide a little bit of excitement.

[MinYoongi]

3 hours ago, Marcel de Bont said:

We can speculate all we want if it is the return of 2975 or not but based on STEREO A it does look like a massive sunspot group or groups in close proximity to each other are on their way. Considering how the X-ray flux is behaving dancing up and down in the C-class and of course the M-flaring yesterday we could be looking at a very interesting week ahead. We do start to see some spots on SDO AIA as well now. Cant hide a little bit of excitement.

Happy to hear youre excited. When will the region be in a Geoeffective position? It looks like it will take at least another day to rotate over.

[3gMike]

3 hours ago, Marcel de Bont said:

We can speculate all we want if it is the return of 2975 or not but based on STEREO A it does look like a massive sunspot group or groups in close proximity to each other are on their way.

I agree.  Looking back at the archive, as ARs 2975 and 2976 rotated over the west limb, they were joined by another region AR2984. Trying to estimate the latitude of the two spots just appearing on the eastern limb I am inclined to think that it may actually be 2976 at the higher latitude and 2984 at the lower, but as you rightly say that is just speculation - it is impossible to tell how the different areas evolved on the farside.