Solarflaretracker200 Posted April 9, 2022 Share Posted April 9, 2022 (edited) Well, this caught my eye this morning, spaceweather.com once again is talking about another farside region. As I was reading it, they said this: Quote The dark region in today's helioseismic map could be old sunspot AR2975, which rotated onto the farside of the sun about a week ago. In late March it unleashed a fusillade of strong Earth-directed explosions including a Cannibal CME and an X-class solar flare. The active region appears to be still going strong. Here is it: and here: http://jsoc.stanford.edu/data/farside/ So if this is the case, we may have another shot of some good activity. Anyways let's hope for something good and that spaceweather.com isn't over exaggerating. Anyways, fingers crossed! Edited April 17, 2022 by Orneno 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post MinYoongi Posted April 9, 2022 Popular Post Share Posted April 9, 2022 I really start to dread spaceweather.com. i dont read the page anymore, too much sensationalism. Disgusting. Back to topic, yeah. could be the AR. still a long way back to earth facing disk i guess (10 days) 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solarflaretracker200 Posted April 9, 2022 Author Share Posted April 9, 2022 (edited) 7 hours ago, MinYoongi said: I really start to dread spaceweather.com. i dont read the page anymore, too much sensationalism. Disgusting. They just constantly over exaggerate and it gets annoying after awhile. The reason I made this post, is because if this is AR2975, then we can see how it’s doing on the Far side. 7 hours ago, MinYoongi said: Back to topic, yeah. could be the AR. still a long way back to earth facing disk i guess Hopefully it is that AR. it would be nice to have another week of crazy haha. At least to me. Edited April 9, 2022 by Solarflaretracker200 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted April 9, 2022 Share Posted April 9, 2022 A lot can happen in a 14 day transit on the farside. Not many regions survive a solar rotation, only the biggest and strong regions can do that. Plus farside imagery isn’t exact and always has to be taken with a big grain of salt. Let’s wait when it’s about to rotate to the visible side and see if it is still active. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solarflaretracker200 Posted April 9, 2022 Author Share Posted April 9, 2022 20 minutes ago, Vancanneyt Sander said: salt. Let’s wait when it’s about to rotate to the visible side and see if it is still active. Sounds good to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted April 9, 2022 Share Posted April 9, 2022 24 minutes ago, Vancanneyt Sander said: A lot can happen in a 14 day transit on the farside. Not many regions survive a solar rotation, only the biggest and strong regions can do that. Plus farside imagery isn’t exact and always has to be taken with a big grain of salt. Let’s wait when it’s about to rotate to the visible side and see if it is still active. More like a cube of salt. AR2975 was complex and strong, but it wasn’t really all that big, not by Solar Maximum standards. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted April 9, 2022 Share Posted April 9, 2022 24 minutes ago, Orneno said: More like a cube of salt. AR2975 was complex and strong, but it wasn’t really all that big, not by Solar Maximum standards. Also we dont really see CME's from the Farside rn. Doesnt speaks for big activity, it was in gradual decay before/while rotating off. Still 10 Days to go until its on the limb again, lets hope for the best ! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solarflaretracker200 Posted April 10, 2022 Author Share Posted April 10, 2022 Looks to be doing good. It has grown: BUT. I am still going to wait and see what is it like in about 9 days Not going to put my hopes up yet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Marcel de Bont Posted April 10, 2022 Popular Post Share Posted April 10, 2022 You cant trust these images too much, even areas that are in decay and consist of just lots of faculae can look huge on these far side diagrams. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solarflaretracker200 Posted April 10, 2022 Author Share Posted April 10, 2022 9 minutes ago, Marcel de Bont said: You cant trust these images too much, even areas that are in decay and consist of just lots of faculae can look huge on these far side diagrams. Yeah that’s why I’m not going to get my hopes up quiet yet. I’ll keep waiting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solarflaretracker200 Posted April 12, 2022 Author Share Posted April 12, 2022 Its getting bigger but I am going to wait until its at the limb to get excited quiet yet. And this may be even faculae as well. Who knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KW2P Posted April 12, 2022 Share Posted April 12, 2022 On 4/9/2022 at 9:27 AM, MinYoongi said: I really start to dread spaceweather.com. i dont read the page anymore, too much sensationalism. Disgusting. It's all about the clicks. Fortunately for them, the sun offers limitless opportunities for sensationalism that attracts the doomsday and flat earth crowd. What bothers me about it is the "crying wolf effect". What happens when the sun does something really significant that will have real effects on the ground? Fortunately, the people who need to implement precautions don't get their info from spaceweather.com. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drax Spacex Posted April 13, 2022 Share Posted April 13, 2022 My understanding is this far side "imagery" is a phase correlation map using integrated doppler shift data from the SDO HMI sensor. If you subscribe to helioseismology, then you also subscribe to the notion that the sun is transparent, or at least translucent, such that you can "see through" the front of the sun to the back of the sun, even if coarsely. I haven't seen any scoring algorithms (or results) to maintain a tally of just how accurate this technique is in predicting what's coming around the East limb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted April 13, 2022 Share Posted April 13, 2022 Was the farside CME visible today from 2975? When does it return back onto the disc? Noaa said on the 15th but json farside map says 17th so im confused. Solar activity is expected to be very low 13-14 Apr and low 15 Apr with a chance for C-class flares due to the anticipated return of old Region 2975. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solarflaretracker200 Posted April 13, 2022 Author Share Posted April 13, 2022 11 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: Was the farside CME visible today from 2975? When does it return back onto the disc? Noaa said on the 15th but json farside map says 17th so im confused. Solar activity is expected to be very low 13-14 Apr and low 15 Apr with a chance for C-class flares due to the anticipated return of old Region 2975. 5.8 days according to this: http://jsoc.stanford.edu/data/farside/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted April 13, 2022 Share Posted April 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, Solarflaretracker200 said: 5.8 days according to this: http://jsoc.stanford.edu/data/farside/ Yeah. Like I already said. The 17th. This does not add anything to my question xD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solarflaretracker200 Posted April 13, 2022 Author Share Posted April 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: Yeah. Like I already said. The 17th. This does not add anything to my question xD Oof I read that totally wrong- sorry 😂 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3gMike Posted April 13, 2022 Share Posted April 13, 2022 8 hours ago, MinYoongi said: Was the farside CME visible today from 2975? When does it return back onto the disc? Noaa said on the 15th but json farside map says 17th so im confused. Solar activity is expected to be very low 13-14 Apr and low 15 Apr with a chance for C-class flares due to the anticipated return of old Region 2975. Because it is such a very large area it is likely that the leading edge will be on the limb by the 15th, followed by the central region on the 17th. If you look in the Archive of sunspot regions on this website you can see that the leading edge was close to the west limb on 1st April and the trailing edge was still just visible on the 4th April. It left as a Beta-Gamma but we cannot be sure what complexity it will have when it returns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted April 13, 2022 Share Posted April 13, 2022 1 minute ago, 3gMike said: Because it is such a very large area it is likely that the leading edge will be on the limb by the 15th, followed by the central region on the 17th. If you look in the Archive of sunspot regions on this website you can see that the leading edge was close to the west limb on 1st April and the trailing edge was still just visible on the 4th April. It left as a Beta-Gamma but we cannot be sure what complexity it will have when it returns Ty makes sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3gMike Posted April 13, 2022 Share Posted April 13, 2022 (edited) Looking on Stereo the region is not particularly bright, so probably not very active. I think that the brighter patch on the trailing edge could possibly even be the old AR2976. Edited April 13, 2022 by 3gMike Corrected Region Number ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick P.A. Geryl Posted April 13, 2022 Share Posted April 13, 2022 1 uur terug, 3gMike zei: Looking on Stereo the region is not particularly bright, so probably not very active. I think that the brighter patch on the trailing edge could possibly even be the old AR2976. Mike, look at the document I send. AR 2975 was still on this side April 2. So at the earliest visible on stereo April 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solarflaretracker200 Posted April 13, 2022 Author Share Posted April 13, 2022 Looking good, but i am still going to wait. 3347 for strength- what does that even mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drax Spacex Posted April 13, 2022 Share Posted April 13, 2022 (edited) 9 hours ago, Solarflaretracker200 said: Looking good, but i am still going to wait. 3347 for strength- what does that even mean? The unit for Strength is micro-hemisphere radians, so I presume it corresponds to the area of the elongated red amoeba. Edited April 13, 2022 by Drax Spacex spelling 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solarflaretracker200 Posted April 13, 2022 Author Share Posted April 13, 2022 12 minutes ago, Drax Spacex said: The unit for Strength is micro-hemisphere radians, so I presume it corresponds to the area of the elongated red amoeba. Oh, that makes sense. Lol the elongated red amoeba- nice description but its not wrong lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted April 13, 2022 Share Posted April 13, 2022 11 hours ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said: Mike, look at the document I send. AR 2975 was still on this side April 2. So at the earliest visible on stereo April 15. When will it be Earth Facing again? Or Geoeffective? 12 hours ago, 3gMike said: Looking on Stereo the region is not particularly bright, so probably not very active. I think that the brighter patch on the trailing edge could possibly even be the old AR2976. Yeah but it gained 1k in Strength and unleashed a CME today. I dont know much about CME's but did it look strong? It was big but i dont know if it was strong. I saw Nasa modelled it but again, i dont know what strong is. 34 minutes ago, Drax Spacex said: The unit for Strength is micro-hemisphere radians, so I presume it corresponds to the area of the elongated red amoeba. Can you please explain that for dumb people? (me) Also: How Reliable are those Maps? Does someone here have some info and/or experience with them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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