Sam Warfel Posted April 17, 2022 Share Posted April 17, 2022 1 minute ago, LunarLights58 said: And by that I mean it might already have be seen by SOHO, it's just that the data isn't immediate. Ah, if you mean that, then sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LunarLights58 Posted April 17, 2022 Share Posted April 17, 2022 I wish we had a faster coronagraph. GOES-U when? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted April 17, 2022 Share Posted April 17, 2022 (edited) Way to beat the odds, 2994! (Solarflaretracker, bit off-topic) Edited April 17, 2022 by Orneno 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isatsuki San Posted April 17, 2022 Share Posted April 17, 2022 3 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: ¿Cómo determinaste eso? Súper interesante I should see the core in the morning, the red part is almost close to the blue part, so I think it determines that it is a delta point, but I am not so sure since I don't know how to see it so well, so I can fail, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted April 17, 2022 Share Posted April 17, 2022 I don't understand sunspot configurations that well either, it's one of my weak points Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted April 17, 2022 Share Posted April 17, 2022 Just now, Orneno said: I don't understand sunspot configurations that well either, it's one of my weak points Yep. Same. And ive been trying to learn more about it for like 2 years now, im awful at it.  1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted April 17, 2022 Share Posted April 17, 2022 It's long-duration, probably 3 hours when it's over, and the coronal dimming is looking good, it looks to be a strong and fast CME Almost certainly not even a little bit earth-directed, as expected due to it's positioning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted April 17, 2022 Share Posted April 17, 2022 Just now, Orneno said: It's long-duration, probably 3 hours when it's over, and the coronal dimming is looking good, it looks to be a strong and fast CME How do you determine the 3hours? The cme wont be geoeffective right,? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted April 17, 2022 Share Posted April 17, 2022 Just now, MinYoongi said: How do you determine the 3hours? By looking at the how the curve is going down so far, and guessing at how it will continue tracing my finger on the screen.  Not very precise, but it will definitely qualify as long-duration. 1 minute ago, MinYoongi said: The cme wont be geoeffective right,? Answered above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted April 17, 2022 Share Posted April 17, 2022 Just now, Orneno said: By looking at the how the curve is going down so far, and guessing at how it will continue tracing my finger on the screen. Â Not very precise, but it will definitely qualify as long-duration. Answered above I answered to quick, before that updated. Sorry. I have a great pic! Ill shoot you a dm. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted April 17, 2022 Share Posted April 17, 2022 Here @MinYoongi, I guess it like this. Â I trace the approximate shape it will be. Â We know flares usually all ramp down in a certain way, we've seen enough of it we know how it will continue (solid red line). Â We know it won't change how fast it's declining (dashed red lines). And then once I trace it, I just look and see how long it is, guessing off of how the data window spans 2 hours. And there's the radio emissions coming in, as expected 640km/s, pretty slow, but I think that's because we're to the side of the CME, not in front, so it's only like the speed it's expanding it's width at, not the speed it's moving ahead, away from the sun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted April 17, 2022 Share Posted April 17, 2022 4 minutes ago, Orneno said: Here @MinYoongi, I guess it like this.  I trace the approximate shape it will be.  We know flares usually all ramp down in a certain way, we've seen enough of it we know how it will continue (solid red line).  We know it won't change how fast it's declining (dashed red lines). And then once I trace it, I just look and see how long it is, guessing off of how the data window spans 2 hours. Yeah i actually do the same! Im just not sure, if thats considered an LDE. Because SWPC says the End was reached at m5.5 🤔 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted April 17, 2022 Share Posted April 17, 2022 1 minute ago, MinYoongi said: Yeah i actually do the same! Im just not sure, if thats considered an LDE. Because SWPC says the End was reached at m5.5 🤔 That's weird, I would think the "end" is when it stops ramping down, reaching either background flux or the next flare, whichever happens first Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted April 17, 2022 Share Posted April 17, 2022 Just now, Orneno said: That's weird, I would think the "end" is when it stops ramping down, reaching either background flux or the next flare, whichever happens first Right?! Me too! But when you look at the SWPC X-ray flux chart it shows the beginning, maximum and end with specific times. I never really figured it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted April 17, 2022 Share Posted April 17, 2022 1 minute ago, MinYoongi said: Right?! Me too! But when you look at the SWPC X-ray flux chart it shows the beginning, maximum and end with specific times. I never really figured it out. Huh, maybe @Marcel de Bont can explain that. 🤞 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted April 17, 2022 Share Posted April 17, 2022  @Orneno i think you mentioned waiting for Lasco? (I hope i remembered that right) I dont rlly agree with the glancing blow thats nice to see. I thought because the radio sweep/shock thing was slow the cme is slow too. 🤔 and it confuses me that such a limb sunspot can create something geoeffective cme wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drax Spacex Posted April 17, 2022 Share Posted April 17, 2022 42 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: Right?! Me too! But when you look at the SWPC X-ray flux chart it shows the beginning, maximum and end with specific times. I never really figured it out. Beginning 17 Apr 2022 03:17:00 GMT C1.9  Maximum 17 Apr 2022 03:34:00 GMT X1.1 Integrated flux: 1.4e-1  J m-2 End 17 Apr 2022 03:51:00 GMT M5.5  (C1.9+X1.1)/2=M5.5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted April 17, 2022 Share Posted April 17, 2022 Just now, Drax Spacex said: Beginning 17 Apr 2022 03:17:00 GMT C1.9 Â Maximum 17 Apr 2022 03:34:00 GMT X1.1 Integrated flux:Â 1.4e-1 Â J m-2 End 17 Apr 2022 03:51:00 GMT M5.5 Â (C1.9+X1.1)/2=M5.5 ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Drax Spacex Posted April 17, 2022 Popular Post Share Posted April 17, 2022 2 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: ? The end time is the time when the flux level decays to a point halfway between the maximum flux and the pre-flare background level. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LunarLights58 Posted April 17, 2022 Share Posted April 17, 2022 I did some basic guesswork. The flare launched the CME at 3:26 UTC. It appeared on LASCO 2 in only 15 minutes. LASCO 2 starts at 1.1 solar radii (770,000km)Â 770,000km/900s(15 min) 855km/s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted April 17, 2022 Share Posted April 17, 2022 28 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:  @Orneno i think you mentioned waiting for Lasco? (I hope i remembered that right) I dont rlly agree with the glancing blow thats nice to see. I thought because the radio sweep/shock thing was slow the cme is slow too. 🤔 and it confuses me that such a limb sunspot can create something geoeffective cme wise. Now it’s more than that peeking. That’s a really nice CME. Honestly, probably the best X-class CME we’ve seen this SC so far. The other two turned out to both be disappointments when they arrived at Earth (which this one will not do, but we can tell it’s strong) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LunarLights58 Posted April 17, 2022 Share Posted April 17, 2022 The radio sweep only estimated it at 614km/s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted April 17, 2022 Share Posted April 17, 2022 Just now, LunarLights58 said: The radio sweep only estimated it at 614km/s Pretty sure the radio speed measures velocity towards earth, so it’s speed as the cloud expands sideways, not its forward motion away from the sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prepper Posted April 17, 2022 Share Posted April 17, 2022 second X class ive seen in my life xd.. nice one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LunarLights58 Posted April 17, 2022 Share Posted April 17, 2022 I'd say it's between 640-1280km/s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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