Sam Warfel Posted December 29, 2022 Share Posted December 29, 2022 7 hours ago, 3gMike said: The region approaching is at Carrington longitude C322. Last rotation that supported AR3156 which only produced a few small C flares. That AR was growing as it left the West limb, and jsoc farside images appear to indicate it as one of the strongest regions in the northern hemisphere, so there may be some cause for optimism. And another M from there, I think partially eclipsed so it may have been stronger. I like this region! Hope it keeps it up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solarflaretracker200 Posted December 29, 2022 Share Posted December 29, 2022 Just now, Orneno said: And another M from there Quite suddenly too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calder Posted December 29, 2022 Share Posted December 29, 2022 First glimpse of some sunspots for this new region. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted January 3, 2023 Author Share Posted January 3, 2023 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozy Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 4 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: One of those moments I wish we could see how big the flare actually was seeing as the X-ray flux is still elevated from it.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted January 3, 2023 Author Share Posted January 3, 2023 27 minutes ago, mozy said: One of those moments I wish we could see how big the flare actually was seeing as the X-ray flux is still elevated from it.. No, the event ended pretty quick. The long duration event we,re seeing right now started afterwards if you look at the timestamp i wonder when that region will be starting to be visible? If I’m right it will start to appear tomorrow. Ps: the CME seems to be fast, cactus shows max speed of 2000kms but min of 600, how do we interpret this? I want to know with which speed a CME would impact earth (if earth directed) do I take the min,Max, or median speed for that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozy Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 28 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: No, the event ended pretty quick. The long duration event we,re seeing right now started afterwards if you look at the timestamp Yes but it's still the effects from the flare we're seeing, there's nothing else to elevate the X-ray flux on the earth facing side like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted January 3, 2023 Author Share Posted January 3, 2023 8 minutes ago, mozy said: Yes but it's still the effects from the flare we're seeing, there's nothing else to elevate the X-ray flux on the earth facing side like this. I think its a new long duration flare we’re seeing, because the X ray flux went down after the first enhancement and then back up again. gong shows the region but with low res Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozy Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 57 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: I think its a new long duration flare we’re seeing, because the X ray flux went down after the first enhancement and then back up again. gong shows the region but with low res That usually happens with bigger flares behind the limb, the X-ray flux picks up the brightness from the initial flare, which then fades & then the bright coronal loops rise after the flare making the X-ray flux slowly rise again. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Landon Moeller Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 4 hours ago, MinYoongi said: This rather impressive region has been indicated for most of its trajectory across the far side, and is seen well by helioseismology imagery. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted January 3, 2023 Author Share Posted January 3, 2023 11 minutes ago, Landon Moeller said: This rather impressive region has been indicated for most of its trajectory across the far side, and is seen well by helioseismology imagery. i know! Sadly Gong has a bad duty cycle right now so imagery there is not as good. Here is another product by Stanford University : Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3gMike Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 19 hours ago, Landon Moeller said: This rather impressive region has been indicated for most of its trajectory across the far side, and is seen well by helioseismology imagery. This region (Carrington longitude 180 to 240) developed significantly over the last two rotations as you can see from the photospheric synoptic maps from WSO On the last rotation it supported three Active regions - AR3162 at C240/13S, AR3163 at C216/20S and AR3166 at C227/8S AR3162 produced 7 C flares AR3163 produced 27 C flares and 1 at M1.1 AR3166 produced only 2 C flares The only really active region during that period was AR3165 at C278/19S. That has already returned as AR3181 which is not doing much at the moment. We should see something by tomorrow (5th Jan) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozy Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 Not that much activity besides that 1 big flare, this might up end as a disappointment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3gMike Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 54 minutes ago, mozy said: Not that much activity besides that 1 big flare, this might up end as a disappointment I was trying to avoid saying that - but I do agree with you. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted January 4, 2023 Author Share Posted January 4, 2023 I wonder why noaa is going with a 10% chance for X-Class flares while assigning all regions 1%. Maybe the limb region ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3gMike Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 35 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: I wonder why noaa is going with a 10% chance for X-Class flares while assigning all regions 1%. Maybe the limb region ? I doubt that the limb can have any effect, because they have no way to assess complexity until it comes into view. Those percentage figures are always a bit of a mystery and I have found no way to correlate them with actual activity levels. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris, HB9DFG Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 (edited) Hello everybody It's time for another limb-shot. But the question is what to expect from this constellation: Source: jsoc.stanford.edu It looks promising, but hey, how many times we had this already before and nothing happened earth sided. But I soon will have my own lightshow up there at Tromsø for some days - regardless of the sun's activity or those "good looking" spot groups. Just need a more or less clear sky and a K >1 Btw, you can check the days with nearly daily "shows" here: Best arctic For example: no big show on Jan- 4th, but nice full moon show! Enjoy and best regards! Chris Edited January 5, 2023 by Chris, HB9DFG 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozy Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 Lol what X-class! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted January 6, 2023 Author Share Posted January 6, 2023 2 minutes ago, mozy said: Lol what X-class! I did not know that region had a delta. Foreshortening due to the limb or weird X-Class? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solarflaretracker200 Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 Whoa X class Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 major whoa!!! but from where praytell?? Not hard to answer my own question looking at the 131 angstrom view. definitely se limb! really nice and bright. Incoming for once😎 8 minutes ago, hamateur 1953 said: major whoa!!! but from where praytell?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris, HB9DFG Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 ...ah, again a limb event! Ok fine, I am calming down again...nothing new...🤢 Regards, Chris (ahäm...Spaceweather...do we have to stay tuned maybe? Ah, I just see, we have to...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 9 minutes ago, Chris, HB9DFG said: (ahäm...Spaceweather...do we have to stay tuned maybe? Ah, I just see, we have to...) Not really, won't be any CMEs worth mentioning from this one I don't think, so I'm not sure what we would need to "Stay tuned" for, other than more flares in the future. Nothing more to do with this one I would think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick P.A. Geryl Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 Op 4/1/2023 om 15:01, 3gMike zei: I doubt that the limb can have any effect, because they have no way to assess complexity until it comes into view. Those percentage figures are always a bit of a mystery and I have found no way to correlate them with actual activity levels. Mike. Is this old 3163? And 3163 was born when? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3gMike Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 3 hours ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said: Mike. Is this old 3163? And 3163 was born when? Patrick, It does not link directly to any one region. AR3182 is located at C226, 17S. AR 3163 was located at C216, 20S whilst AR 3166 was located at C227, 8S so it is close to AR3163 in latitude, but close to AR3166 in longitude. It is fair to say that AR3163 had the larger area and was much more active. AR3163 appeared on the East limb around 10th December. There was nothing in this area on the previous location, so I checked the farside maps. From those I would suggest that the magnetic field started to develop at this longitude around 1st December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts