Incoming Regions (de-commissioned)

[Landon Moeller]

Yeah the region looks very stable so far without any look at magnetic complexity. This whole down period in activity is depressing for sure haha 

19 minutes ago, 3gMike said:

Yes, looks like that is correct. Images Aug(on left) to Oct(on right)

Sadly this region is looking pretty feeble at the moment. At this rate it could be another week before we see any significant activity in the Northern hemisphere.

 

[WildWill]

1 hour ago, 3gMike said:

Yes, looks like that is correct. Images Aug(on left) to Oct(on right)

Sadly this region is looking pretty feeble at the moment. At this rate it could be another week before we see any significant activity in the Northern hemisphere.

Howdy!

It appears we have the remnants of AR13089 coming in right behind that coronal hole and AR13124 appears to be the anemone group, having drifted steadily northward for th last two months. 
 

I think it’s important to note that the x-ray flux has moved up into the C class (background) from B yesterday. Additionally, the TCI (Thermosphere Climate Index - see Newbie’s post in Insightful reading) is tracking well above predictions as well as cycle 24. 
 

As if that wasn’t enough to provide some encouragement for all y’all bored and disappointed Sun Worshippers, check out the “Termination Event” (Google it) appears to have happened at just 10 yrs 5 months since the previous terminator event - which suggests a stronger cycle. Predictions have been revised for this cycle to being an “above average cycle” from a “below average cycle, similar to cycle 24” prediction. The current actual values are tracking well above predictions as well as cycle 24. There a couple of graphs which show, very well, what this will mean! You can find them here:

https://spaceweatherarchive.com/2022/03/23/the-thermosphere-is-warming-up/

All Y’all have ya a great day!

WnA

[Sam Warfel]

1 hour ago, WildWill said:

As if that wasn’t enough to provide some encouragement for all y’all bored and disappointed Sun Worshippers, check out the “Termination Event” (Google it) appears to have happened at just 10 yrs 5 months since the previous terminator event - which suggests a stronger cycle. Predictions have been revised for this cycle to being an “above average cycle” from a “below average cycle, similar to cycle 24” prediction. The current actual values are tracking well above predictions as well as cycle 24. There a couple of graphs which show, very well, what this will mean! You can find them here:

https://spaceweatherarchive.com/2022/03/23/the-thermosphere-is-warming-up/

 

Thanks WW! That’s music to my ears!

[3gMike]

3 hours ago, WildWill said:

Howdy!

It appears we have the remnants of AR13089 coming in right behind that coronal hole and AR13124 appears to be the anemone group, having drifted steadily northward for th last two months. 
 

I think it’s important to note that the x-ray flux has moved up into the C class (background) from B yesterday. Additionally, the TCI (Thermosphere Climate Index - see Newbie’s post in Insightful reading) is tracking well above predictions as well as cycle 24. 
 

As if that wasn’t enough to provide some encouragement for all y’all bored and disappointed Sun Worshippers, check out the “Termination Event” (Google it) appears to have happened at just 10 yrs 5 months since the previous terminator event - which suggests a stronger cycle. Predictions have been revised for this cycle to being an “above average cycle” from a “below average cycle, similar to cycle 24” prediction. The current actual values are tracking well above predictions as well as cycle 24. There a couple of graphs which show, very well, what this will mean! You can find them here:

https://spaceweatherarchive.com/2022/03/23/the-thermosphere-is-warming-up/

All Y’all have ya a great day!

WnA

Hi Will,

The article on TCI that you linked to was published in March this year and at that time the TCI was well ahead of Cycle 24, but current value of 1.69 and about 1050 days into the cycle puts it on a par with cycle 24.

Regarding the terminator, and predictions for cycle 25, Scott McIntosh et al have published a paper in September giving a lot of detail about their theory  https://arxiv.org/pdf/2209.10577.pdf. They are still predicting a higher maximum for cycle 25, but if you compare cycles 24 and 25 here https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/solar-activity/solar-cycle/historical-solar-cycles.html you will see that currently they are very similar.

I would love to see some growth, but to date I see no evidence to support that.

[MinYoongi]

Something on far side:) 

[3gMike]

7 hours ago, MinYoongi said:

Something on far side:) 

Yes, the region approaching the limb in the northern hemisphere is associated with the old AR3111, which was only an Alpha on the last transition, so I'm not expecting much activity. Of course, it may have grown - we will see in the next day or so.

[WildWill]

On 10/20/2022 at 4:26 PM, 3gMike said:

Hi Will,

The article on TCI that you linked to was published in March this year and at that time the TCI was well ahead of Cycle 24, but current value of 1.69 and about 1050 days into the cycle puts it on a par with cycle 24.

Regarding the terminator, and predictions for cycle 25, Scott McIntosh et al have published a paper in September giving a lot of detail about their theory  https://arxiv.org/pdf/2209.10577.pdf. They are still predicting a higher maximum for cycle 25, but if you compare cycles 24 and 25 here https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/solar-activity/solar-cycle/historical-solar-cycles.html you will see that currently they are very similar.

I would love to see some growth, but to date I see no evidence to support that.

Howdy 3g!

Sorry for the late response.  In my nothing bu humble opinion, ya just can't really say fer sher what's gonna happen until it does..  

The TCI is just another index, an indicator.  Of which there are many. At the moment, the TCI is at 16.99x10^10 (or was the last time I looked). Which is the hightail value since last solar max. I'll take that as a good sign. 
 

Also, keep in mind that the absolute beginning and end of a cycle are really not well defined, so Amy comparisons have to be taken with a little salt. Move the "start" forward or backwards just a little bit, and it can change "where we are" in the cycle substantially.

Related to the TCI, I have seen two other articles, one dated Aug 2nd, the other I don't recall the date, but all three seem to agreement that we are on track fir a stronger max than last time around.  Imma gonna be the optimist here.Why? Pray tell, you may ask? Well this is not the only indicator which shows that we are on track for a much stronger max and we are tracking ahead of both SC24 and NOAA's forecast/predictions. 
But whose to say until it happens? 

cheers.

WnA
 

 

[Landon Moeller]

While the majority of the east limb is filled with some interest, let’s hope it’s not just a bunch of plage!

[Landon Moeller]

On 10/23/2022 at 7:27 AM, 3gMike said:

Yes, the region approaching the limb in the northern hemisphere is associated with the old AR3111, which was only an Alpha on the last transition, so I'm not expecting much activity. Of course, it may have grown - we will see in the next day or so.

First look at 3111. Still has that one dominant spot, slightly larger than the size of Earth. Not expecting it to be magnetically complex.

[Solarflaretracker200]

29 minutes ago, Landon Moeller said:

First look at 3111. Still has that one dominant spot, slightly larger than the size of Earth. Not expecting it to be magnetically complex.

I guess we wait and see if it does anything. But like you said, it could not be magnetically complex. 

[3gMike]

22 hours ago, Landon Moeller said:

While the majority of the east limb is filled with some interest, let’s hope it’s not just a bunch of plage!

Farside images suggest nothing significant for another 3 or 4 days, then we may have activity in both hemispheres.

 

[Landon Moeller]

19 minutes ago, 3gMike said:

Farside images suggest nothing significant for another 3 or 4 days, then we may have activity in both hemispheres.

 

Is the red and green likely the 3112, 3116, and 3119 combo?

[3gMike]

2 hours ago, Landon Moeller said:

Is the red and green likely the 3112, 3116, and 3119 combo?

Yes, I would think so.

[WildWill]

On 10/24/2022 at 8:20 AM, Landon Moeller said:

First look at 3111. Still has that one dominant spot, slightly larger than the size of Earth. Not expecting it to be magnetically complex.

 

On 10/24/2022 at 8:50 AM, Solarflaretracker200 said:

I guess we wait and see if it does anything. But like you said, it could not be magnetically complex. 

Being the optimist once again…lol, I say “not so fast”, I do believe it’s still to far out on the limb to determine a magnetic classification for this AR. At least I believe that is what NOAA, the Air Force and NASA would say at this point…

Cheers

WnA
 

[Landon Moeller]

 

Throwing some unrelated fun in here, but once you see it, you can’t unsee it… 🙂🌞

[WildWill]

Howdy All Y'all,

We all realize that when we see something on or near the limbs, we are viewing it at an oblique angle. So as we move away from the center of the sun, the lines of longitude appear closer and closer together as you move outward towards the limbs.

I wanted to see just how distorted and limited the view is as you move outward.  On the diagram below, each line of latitude and longitude are 15* apart. (Thank you Newbie for providing the diagram). 
 

I knew that they would get much closer as you move outward, I just didn't realize just how much. Check it out!

 

Those two lines at the limbs, which appear so close together that it's hard to discern that it is two lines! The next line is still very close, but they are all 15* apart! 

From where I am watching from,  the first 30* in from each limb is really very limited in what it can tell you - really just if something is coming or not. Certainly not magnetic classifications.  There are other indicators which are much better at providing information about "incoming!". That first 15* inward from the limbs is such a tiny sliver and the next one is not much bigger. Even the 3rd is very close.

 I believe from this vantage point, only about 120* of the sun is clearly visible. Visible enough to count spots or determine magnetic classification, with any real certainty.

Cheers.

WnA

[Solarflaretracker200]

1 hour ago, WildWill said:

Being the optimist once again…lol, I say “not so fast”, I do believe it’s still to far out on the limb to determine a magnetic classification for this AR.

Well yeah I know. That's why i said it could lol. Worst case scenario it'll be gone (which could and may happen)

[WildWill]

On 10/17/2022 at 11:23 AM, Solarflaretracker200 said:

I hate being like this... but do you mean Oct 26-27?

Howdy there SFT,

Just wanted to give you the heads up, today is Oct 26, moving very quickly into Oct 27! 

We did catch a very nice filament eruption NE limb. If ya haven’t seen it, Min posted an awesome picture. I sat at my telescope for 2 1/2 hours watching it unfold in NRT.  Probably 45 min after Min’s pictures, another feature appear - the largest “solar tornado” ive seen through my telescope. It had to extend 100,000+ km into space before fading into fine tendrils and away! 
 

I do tend to digress… in any case, at this moment we are at “Oct 26-27”

Just didn’t wontcha ta miss anythang impotent…

Happy Trails to You! 
 

WnA

[Solarflaretracker200]

6 hours ago, WildWill said:

Howdy there SFT,

Just wanted to give you the heads up, today is Oct 26, moving very quickly into Oct 27! 

We did catch a very nice filament eruption NE limb. If ya haven’t seen it, Min posted an awesome picture. I sat at my telescope for 2 1/2 hours watching it unfold in NRT.  Probably 45 min after Min’s pictures, another feature appear - the largest “solar tornado” ive seen through my telescope. It had to extend 100,000+ km into space before fading into fine tendrils and away! 
 

I do tend to digress… in any case, at this moment we are at “Oct 26-27”

Just didn’t wontcha ta miss anythang impotent…

Happy Trails to You! 
 

WnA

Yeah it was my bad. I realized I messed up lol. My bad

[3gMike]

Some potential for activity in the Northern hemisphere from tomorrow (28th October). GONG showing intense magnetic fields for Carrington longitudes 30 to 60, possibly with some inter-mixing.

[MinYoongi]

22 hours ago, 3gMike said:

Some potential for activity in the Northern hemisphere from tomorrow (28th October). GONG showing intense magnetic fields for Carrington longitudes 30 to 60, possibly with some inter-mixing.

Thanks for your report on that.
Why does this not reflect on the Gong Farside imagery? 

Just now, MinYoongi said:

Thanks for your report on that.
Why does this not reflect on the Gong Farside imagery? 

Also, how accurate are those maps? i can see something in stereo A and a little bit in jsoc far side images  

[WildWill]

On 10/27/2022 at 8:01 AM, Solarflaretracker200 said:

Yeah it was my bad. I realized I messed up lol. My bad

Heya SFT!

I was just teasing you… ;-)…. Also wanted to let you know that both the 26th and 27th of October (2022) have past now, the world over. Additional, the 26th & 27th of September are like way way gone, too! Amazing how fast they dun gone way! Oh, and the 27th & 28th of August are gone as well… I remember well, as the 27 th was my birthday, lol. I’m old enough to drink now! The 28th was my mother’s birthday, her and the 28th are long gone too. 
 

Can you see the face on the sun right now? I can’t see anything except that big old zit right there by it’s eye!

Have a Nice Day!
 

WnA

Edited October 28, 2022 by WildWill
Bad merge…

[3gMike]

4 hours ago, MinYoongi said:

Thanks for your report on that.
Why does this not reflect on the Gong Farside imagery? 

Also, how accurate are those maps? i can see something in stereo A and a little bit in jsoc far side images  

Hi Min,

They are similar to the maps that I previously used from WSO. They represent the magnetic field that was recorded while the region was earthside. The dates of measurement are shown at the top of the chart, so we can see that the region I mentioned was measured on 7th October. That means that it may have changed during transition of the farside.  The farside maps use Seismology, so do not give any indication of magnetic polarities, but they give a fair indication of general activity.

It looks like the region now appearing on the limb, and identified as AR 3135, is the leading edge of what was AR3116 on the last rotation. Here is a reminder of last rotation....

[hamateur 1953]

I’m a hoping Cat P. is able to get some good pix given our smiling sunspits arrival today!!

On 10/26/2022 at 11:33 PM, WildWill said:

Howdy there SFT,

Just wanted to give you the heads up, today is Oct 26, moving very quickly into Oct 27! 

We did catch a very nice filament eruption NE limb. If ya haven’t seen it, Min posted an awesome picture. I sat at my telescope for 2 1/2 hours watching it unfold in NRT.  Probably 45 min after Min’s pictures, another feature appear - the largest “solar tornado” ive seen through my telescope. It had to extend 100,000+ km into space before fading into fine tendrils and away! 
 

I do tend to digress… in any case, at this moment we are at “Oct 26-27”

Just didn’t wontcha ta miss anythang impotent…

Happy Trails to You! 
 

WnA

 

[MinYoongi]

https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/de/sonnenaktivitat/neueste-cmes.html#27-3

Can someone tell me where this CME originated from? Filament ? (i think there was a large south-west one around that time?) or farside AR?

I think this filament eruption is the source, but i didnt knew that filaments reach such a speed (2000kms). i remember @Vancanneyt Sander saying they often dont produce large storms because they simply lack ejection power/speed.