Jesterface23 Posted March 29, 2022 Share Posted March 29, 2022 G3 would certainly be a mid-possibility if the second CME arrives early. G2 would be likely. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drax Spacex Posted March 29, 2022 Share Posted March 29, 2022 2 hours ago, MinYoongi said: " Initial analysis and modeling indicated Earth-directed transients from both events with speeds of 667 km/s and 841 km/s respectively. The second and faster CME is expected to catch up and combine with the first transient from the M4 event. The combined arrival of both events at the magnetosphere protecting Earth is expected early on 31 March. Additional analysis and tweaking of the forecast is expected to continue throughout today." New forecast WSA-Enlil is now showing both CMEs with two peaks for wind speed at Earth, the first at 2022-03-31 01:00 and the second at 2022-03-31 12:00. I trust the human-in-the-loop estimates for CME speed using imagery from both Stereo A and LASCO coronagraphs. Automation that uses LASCO alone can yield a foreshortened view and underestimated CME speeds. Including also the partial side view from Stereo A provides a more complete 3D picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted March 29, 2022 Share Posted March 29, 2022 1 hour ago, Drax Spacex said: WSA-Enlil is now showing both CMEs with two peaks for wind speed at Earth, the first at 2022-03-31 01:00 and the second at 2022-03-31 12:00. I trust the human-in-the-loop estimates for CME speed using imagery from both Stereo A and LASCO coronagraphs. Automation that uses LASCO alone can yield a foreshortened view and underestimated CME speeds. Including also the partial side view from Stereo A provides a more complete 3D picture. Space Weather Message Code: WATA50 Serial Number: 67 Issue Time: 2022 Mar 29 1710 UTC WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G3 Predicted Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day: Mar 30: G1 (Minor) Mar 31: G3 (Strong) Apr 01: G2 (Moderate) Another Update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LunarLights58 Posted March 29, 2022 Share Posted March 29, 2022 Just when it's forecasted to be cloudy for me. Why doesn't terrestrial weather line up with space weather in a favorable way? Will storming persist for 24 hours after arrival? The night of the 3/31-4/1 will be clear and moonless! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flareguy18 Posted March 29, 2022 Share Posted March 29, 2022 The spot is still looking pretty complex, but X-ray flux is quieter in comparison to the insanity we saw yesterday. Hoping it still has more for us before it becomes less geoeffective! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted March 29, 2022 Share Posted March 29, 2022 Hey Guys. i saw this tweet and wanted to ask if the 2 regions combined into one now? If not, what does "magnetically connected" mean? Also, due to low C-class flaring i thought the region (for now) shot its energy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flareguy18 Posted March 29, 2022 Share Posted March 29, 2022 5 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: Hey Guys. i saw this tweet and wanted to ask if the 2 regions combined into one now? If not, what does "magnetically connected" mean? Also, due to low C-class flaring i thought the region (for now) shot its energy? I am not completely sure of all the mechanisms involved, but I assume it's that both sunspot groups have made connections with each other. Energy can potentially intermingle between the two and lead to instabilities that could produce more flares. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted March 29, 2022 Share Posted March 29, 2022 7 minutes ago, Flareguy18 said: The spot is still looking pretty complex, but X-ray flux is quieter in comparison to the insanity we saw yesterday. Hoping it still has more for us before it becomes less geoeffective! Did it Decay or grew further? Yeah it was insane yesterday! It just refused to be pissed off when will it become less geoeffective? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solarflaretracker200 Posted March 29, 2022 Share Posted March 29, 2022 NO MORE PISSED OFF SUNSPOT? WHAT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flareguy18 Posted March 29, 2022 Share Posted March 29, 2022 15 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: Did it Decay or grew further? Yeah it was insane yesterday! It just refused to be pissed off when will it become less geoeffective? I haven't noticed any decay yet. It still looks potent. M And just as we were talking... another M-flare is in progress now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted March 29, 2022 Share Posted March 29, 2022 24 minutes ago, Flareguy18 said: I haven't noticed any decay yet. It still looks potent. M And just as we were talking... another M-flare is in progress now! Yup! Very quick though Dropped back down quick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solarflaretracker200 Posted March 29, 2022 Share Posted March 29, 2022 29 minutes ago, Flareguy18 said: And just as we were talking... another M-flare is in progress now! Wtf I literally was just wondering if a M class was going to happen and it did. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted March 30, 2022 Author Share Posted March 30, 2022 Finally, official Beta-Gamma-Delta for AR2975! Definitely the best so far this solar cycle. That’s a pretty good sunspot lineup in general too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flareguy18 Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 4 minutes ago, Orneno said: Finally, official Beta-Gamma-Delta for AR2975! Definitely the best so far this solar cycle. That’s a pretty good sunspot lineup in general too. Quite impressive indeed. It's very complex. Some big things could be coming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted March 30, 2022 Author Share Posted March 30, 2022 10 minutes ago, Flareguy18 said: Some big things could be coming! Sadly, it’s beginning to rotate away from directly earth-facing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flareguy18 Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 2 minutes ago, Orneno said: Sadly, it’s beginning to rotate away from directly earth-facing. True... however I wonder if its neighbor, AR2976 has some tricks up its sleeve. It seems the two may be interacting. Either way, both will be geoeffective for at least a couple more days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drax Spacex Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 (edited) On 3/28/2022 at 7:24 PM, Jesterface23 said: I managed to just about match the SWPC WSA-ENLIL model on the first one, see if this can do the same lol. For this second CME I'll have a preliminary arrival at /31 14:00Z +-6 hours at L1. I think STEREO A will take a direct impact by the first CME, but a side impact by this one. Your predictions are consistent with SWPC. They predicted second CME arrival at /31 12:00Z. Go Desmos! I think that's the calculator you're using for your predictions. 53 minutes ago, Flareguy18 said: Quite impressive indeed. It's very complex. Some big things could be coming! Shearing (increasing separation between spots of opposite polarity?) and sunspots observed rotating about their umbra could be a prelude to an X-flare - as though the sunspots are shifting and circulating around seeking to find the right positional combination to unlock the flare! SWPC describes AR2975 (N13W25, Dhc/beta-gamma-delta) as "continuing to exhibit significant reorganization within its intermediate and leader spots, with shearing evident throughout the period." Edited March 30, 2022 by Drax Spacex 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 (edited) 2 hours ago, Drax Spacex said: Your predictions are consistent with SWPC. They predicted second CME arrival at /31 12:00Z. Go Desmos! I think that's the calculator you're using for your predictions. The second CME in the SWPC's WSA-ENLIL run doesn't actually match my prediction. In the model the second peak is behind the dense wall of protons. I don't use Desmos for arrival time predictions. That is just me trying to use my best learned theories to get an idea of what a CME or past CMEs possibly look like. How I made this and prior preliminary arrival times is below, l = 2022/03/28 20:10Z || Launch a = 03:35Z || Northwest side of the CME reaching 31.5Rsun in LASCO C3 imagery b = 04:25Z || Southeast side of the CME reaching 31.5Rsun in LASCO C3 imagery x = 00:50 || 'a' and 'b' 31.5Rsun time difference m = 04:00Z || Average 31.5Rsun time 7:50 || Enter value 'x' into a specific formula or going off a graph to get a value. In this case making a small adjustment for some possible error I have 8.4 and multiplied that by this 7 hours and 50 minutes. This is from 'm' minus 'l' ~65.8 hours of travel time and preliminary arrival of 2022/03/28 14:00Z It's not over 'till the CMEs arrive heh. 2 out of 6 (so far) model runs are 2 hours off at least Edited March 30, 2022 by Jesterface23 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 3 hours ago, Jesterface23 said: The second CME in the SWPC's WSA-ENLIL run doesn't actually match my prediction. In the model the second peak is behind the dense wall of protons. I don't use Desmos for arrival time predictions. That is just me trying to use my best learned theories to get an idea of what a CME or past CMEs possibly look like. How I made this and prior preliminary arrival times is below, l = 2022/03/28 20:10Z || Launch a = 03:35Z || Northwest side of the CME reaching 31.5Rsun in LASCO C3 imagery b = 04:25Z || Southeast side of the CME reaching 31.5Rsun in LASCO C3 imagery x = 00:50 || 'a' and 'b' 31.5Rsun time difference m = 04:00Z || Average 31.5Rsun time 7:50 || Enter value 'x' into a specific formula or going off a graph to get a value. In this case making a small adjustment for some possible error I have 8.4 and multiplied that by this 7 hours and 50 minutes. This is from 'm' minus 'l' ~65.8 hours of travel time and preliminary arrival of 2022/03/28 14:00Z It's not over 'till the CMEs arrive heh. 2 out of 6 (so far) model runs are 2 hours off at least How are they "off" by 2hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tristan Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 (edited) There is now another full halo CME on LASCO. Does anyone know the source, earthside or farside? Edit: SWPC confirms it was farside and not earth-directed. Edited March 30, 2022 by Tristan 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solarflaretracker200 Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 6 hours ago, MinYoongi said: How are they "off" by 2hours? It can get there faster than the predicted time I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 6 hours ago, MinYoongi said: How are they "off" by 2hours? There are several other models than the two you may know of. They just don't all have imagery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 12 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: There are several other models than the two you may know of. They just don't all have imagery. And what do they say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 2 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: And what do they say? They can be found here, https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/CMEscoreboard/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 16 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: They can be found here, https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/CMEscoreboard/ This is a great source, thank you alot for providing this!!! 💕🌸 very help and insightful. Just one thing kinda confuses me. So basically everyone there says max KP will be 7. Why is noa saying chance of G4? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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