MinYoongi Posted March 29, 2022 Share Posted March 29, 2022 12 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: I managed to just about match the SWPC WSA-ENLIL model on the first one, see if this can do the same lol. For this second CME I'll have a preliminary arrival at /31 14:00Z +-6 hours. I think STEREO A will take a direct impact by the first CME, but a side impact by this one. What could that mean earth impact wise? Cannibal cme? 10 minutes ago, Flareguy18 said: Flare was weaker, but often when you have multiple CMES in a shorter timeframe, the successive ones become faster because the interplanetary medium is "cleared out" by the earlier CMEs. That's what can make the later ones faster. The AR region is still crackling with some lower level activity but I still think we will see more M-class activity before long. Noaa didnt mention the 2nd cme in their updated forecast discussion..? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flareguy18 Posted March 29, 2022 Share Posted March 29, 2022 1 minute ago, MinYoongi said: What could that mean earth impact wise? Cannibal cme? Noaa didnt mention the 2nd cme in their updated forecast discussion..? I am surprised there wasn't any mention in their discussion, but the imagery is still pretty fresh. They should talk about it soon. Currently, they are forecasting up to G2 (Moderate) storming conditions around mid-week which isn't bad for us on the ground. A double impact could push the levels up a bit higher under the right conditions, but I'm not presently worried about any major impacts at ground level. Auroras will be out, though! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted March 29, 2022 Share Posted March 29, 2022 2 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: What could that mean earth impact wise? Cannibal cme? I have the first CME at /31 02:20Z, so at least I see them as back to back. We'll see what all of the model runs think. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted March 29, 2022 Share Posted March 29, 2022 2 minutes ago, Flareguy18 said: I am surprised there wasn't any mention in their discussion, but the imagery is still pretty fresh. They should talk about it soon. Currently, they are forecasting up to G2 (Moderate) storming conditions around mid-week which isn't bad for us on the ground. A double impact could push the levels up a bit higher under the right conditions, but I'm not presently worried about any major impacts at ground level. Auroras will be out, though! Thats calming. Thanks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flareguy18 Posted March 29, 2022 Share Posted March 29, 2022 Add another tally to the chart for AR2975! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeny96 Posted March 29, 2022 Share Posted March 29, 2022 16 minutes ago, Flareguy18 said: Add another tally to the chart for AR2975! Is there something to worry about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flareguy18 Posted March 29, 2022 Share Posted March 29, 2022 Just now, jeny96 said: Is there something to worry about? No, it's only a moderate-level flare. Could produce another CME however. Just shows how active this AR group is! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KW2P Posted March 29, 2022 Share Posted March 29, 2022 1 minute ago, jeny96 said: Is there something to worry about? Worry, as in a personal danger to you? No. But it is something to get excited about if you're a solar weather fan, enjoy watching the sun do its thing, and hope for a good show of the auroras. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeny96 Posted March 29, 2022 Share Posted March 29, 2022 9 minutes ago, KW2P said: Preocupación, como en un peligro personal para usted? No. Pero es algo para emocionarse si eres un fanático del clima solar, disfrutas viendo cómo el sol hace lo suyo y esperas un buen espectáculo de las auroras. I mean about a danger to the earth to us or the satellites or technology 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted March 29, 2022 Share Posted March 29, 2022 Don't worry much until the travel times get under 24 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeny96 Posted March 29, 2022 Share Posted March 29, 2022 5 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: Don't worry much until the travel times get under 24 hours. what do you mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flareguy18 Posted March 29, 2022 Share Posted March 29, 2022 8 minutes ago, jeny96 said: I mean about a danger to the earth to us or the satellites or technology Any solar flare could cause at least minor disruptions/upsets to satellites or radio frequencies, but at this level there isn't much to worry about. 6 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: Don't worry much until the travel times get under 24 hours. I agree with this here for CMEs. These CMEs launched today are somewhat on the stronger side, but still not out of the ordinary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isatsuki San Posted March 29, 2022 Share Posted March 29, 2022 3 minutes ago, jeny96 said: ¿Qué quieres decir? it means that you should only be concerned if a cme takes less than 24 hours to arrive after the cme was launched Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted March 29, 2022 Share Posted March 29, 2022 5 minutes ago, jeny96 said: what do you mean? The faster the CME the higher potential strength of a solar storm. Once we reach those ultra fast CMEs the higher the chance of Kp9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeny96 Posted March 29, 2022 Share Posted March 29, 2022 2 minutes ago, Isatsuki San said: it means that you should only be concerned if a cme takes less than 24 hours to arrive after the cme was launched 3 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: The faster the CME the higher potential strength of a solar storm. Once we reach those ultra fast CMEs the higher the chance of Kp9. ooh I see thanks for clarifying for me, English is not my first language and I didn't understand at first Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KW2P Posted March 29, 2022 Share Posted March 29, 2022 There's always some danger to satellites from these things. Some electronic component might get pushed to failure by the next minor CME. But every spacecraft up there right now has withstood far stronger flares into the X range along with the associated CMEs. The sun is capable of unleashing CMEs that pose a danger to our technology on the ground but these are rare. The last major one happened in 1859, far more powerful than anything we've ever seen in the modern era. If that event happened today, yes, it would knock out electric power grids all over the world. By knock out I mean physical damage like melted transformers. Such damage would take weeks, months, even years to fix. Unfortunately all we know about the 1859 event was that it came from a huge sunspot region which was observed by a fellow named Carrington. The event is named after him. How often these happen is unknown. The only reason we noticed the Carrington Event is because the telegraph had been invented and there were long runs of wire stretching across the countryside which were affected by the movements of Earth's magnetic field. Had it happened 50 years earlier, no one would have noticed unless they were watching a magnetic compass when it hit. (Compass needles dance around and spin during an extreme solar storm). We also know the sun can unleash even more powerful events, so powerful they are recorded in tree rings because they affect the formation of carbon-14 on Earth. The last one I'm aware of happened about 9,000 years ago. But even this didn't significantly harm anything and probably went unnoticed by the humans of the time. What we're observing today is exciting to us because the sun has been dormant for so long. (The 11 year cycle). We've been deprived of spectacular auroras and great radio propagation for shortwave radio enthusiasts. But in the big scheme of things, these are just ordinary minor flickers and nothing to worry about. We measure and observe intently because we want to understand the sun better, knowing that it's capable of doing things that will affect us when they happen. We'd like to have some warning when it happens. Some electric utilities have designed for Carrington-like events. There are disconnects that can be actuated, high-value items that are hard to replace like substation transformers can be ungrounded, generators shut down, and so on, but it takes a bit of time to execute these procedures. They're getting better and better, automating more and more of it. Utilities ultimately want to be able to hit an emergency shutdown switch that triggers every disconnect in the whole system at once. About ten years ago, I was living in Guatemala and closely observed as the power grid in the eastern part of the country was completely rebuilt, all new everything, new substations, and with much higher capacity. That system is ready for a Carrington Event. There is an emergency switch that actuates all the high-line disconnects and triggers explosive charges on the grounding bus bars at substations. It can be done and isn't expensive if you're building a new system, but retrofitting existing infrastructure is very expensive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted March 29, 2022 Author Share Posted March 29, 2022 9 hours ago, LunarLights58 said: Since Orneno had fun asking this last week, do we have permission to get excited? Yes! Very exciting! Since I started watching (recently) I’ve not seen constant upper-class C background flux and the frequency of M-class like this spot is delivering! Two partial halo CMEs, I suspect a cannibal CME. And the spot is still going strong, likely to be more coming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solarflaretracker200 Posted March 29, 2022 Share Posted March 29, 2022 If a x class happen when I sleep, I’ll be depressed 😂 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flareguy18 Posted March 29, 2022 Share Posted March 29, 2022 2 minutes ago, Orneno said: Yes! Very exciting! Since I started watching (recently) I’ve not seen constant upper-class C background flux and the frequency of M-class like this spot is delivering! Two partial halo CMEs, I suspect a cannibal CME. And the spot is still going strong, likely to be more coming! Anxiously awaiting updated LASCO... getting close to the time where the M2 happened this evening. Wondering if a third CME was launched 👀 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solarflaretracker200 Posted March 29, 2022 Share Posted March 29, 2022 Constant M classes today right? That’s insane 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted March 29, 2022 Share Posted March 29, 2022 4 minutes ago, Flareguy18 said: Anxiously awaiting updated LASCO... getting close to the time where the M2 happened this evening. Wondering if a third CME was launched 👀 Null. It was a non-eruptive flare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flareguy18 Posted March 29, 2022 Share Posted March 29, 2022 3 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: Null. It was a non-eruptive flare. Aww bummer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isatsuki San Posted March 29, 2022 Share Posted March 29, 2022 11 minutes ago, Orneno said: ¡Sí! ¡Muy emocionante! Desde que comencé a mirar (recientemente), no he visto un flujo de fondo constante de clase alta C y la frecuencia de clase M como la que ofrece este lugar. Dos CME de halo parcial , sospecho que una CME caníbal . Y el lugar sigue siendo fuerte, ¡es probable que vengan más! Hello orneno, he asked me about you to see what the sunspot 2975 said, although I saw that there are 7 sunspots on the active disk again, although the complex one is 2975, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drax Spacex Posted March 29, 2022 Share Posted March 29, 2022 Homework Problem Given: Cactus calculated CME #1 to have a speed of 355 km/s. Cactus calculated CME #2 to have a speed of 504 km/s. #1 2022/03/28 12:00| 01 | 306| 146| 0355| 0065| 0221| 0520| II #2 2022/03/28 20:24| 02 | 301| 160| 0504| 0043| 0416| 0589| II Find: The date and time when CME #2 will catch up with CME #1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted March 29, 2022 Author Share Posted March 29, 2022 2 minutes ago, Isatsuki San said: Hello orneno, he asked me about you to see what the sunspot 2975 said, although I saw that there are 7 sunspots on the active disk again, although the complex one is 2975, I’m sorry, I don’t understand what you are asking here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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