LunarLights58 Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 Since Orneno had fun asking this last week, do we have permission to get excited? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tristan Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 I am thinking that we might be getting another CME from this region, and that the current CME might be clearing the way for it. The region is highly unstable and shows great promise. Looking forward to tracking it on this fantastic website 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 First WSA-ENLIL model is in, as you can see the bulk won’t be headed to Earth, only minor part. Impact possible March 31st 9UTC (+ and - 7 hours). PS: the regions development continues with several deltas forming, very interesting mix with a slight chance for X-class solar flare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 2 minuten geleden, LunarLights58 zei: Since Orneno had fun asking this last week, do we have permission to get excited? @Vancanneyt Sander Does he get your permission? 🤣 2 minuten geleden, Tristan zei: I am thinking that we might be getting another CME from this region, and that the current CME might be clearing the way for it. The region is highly unstable and shows great promise. Looking forward to tracking it on this fantastic website Thanks! I agree this region looks promising. Hope it continues to develop and it might give us an even stronger eruption than we had today! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LunarLights58 Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 We're at C9+ This region is crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tristan Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 11 minutes ago, LunarLights58 said: We're at C9+ This region is crazy. M1 now. Don't remember seeing such bumpiness at this level of flaring. Very exiting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 Is the background flux so high because of this region only? Or is the Region thats rotating onto the disk (i think it crackled with c class flares) boosting the flux? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 4 minuten geleden, MinYoongi zei: Is the background flux so high because of this region only? Or is the Region thats rotating onto the disk (i think it crackled with c class flares) boosting the flux? It’s 2975 that began crackling with C-s the last hour with a touch of M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LunarLights58 Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 Bare minimum for an M flare Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tristan Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 1 minute ago, MinYoongi said: Is the background flux so high because of this region only? Or is the Region thats rotating onto the disk (i think it crackled with c class flares) boosting the flux? The primary contribution is currently due to this region. I often find that promising far side regions are often in decay by the time we can have a good look at them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solarflaretracker200 Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 I have never seen solar activity so crazy like today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris, HB9DFG Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 (edited) Hello all! I just played with two shots of the LASCO pictures (12:42 and 16:06UTC) to create a nice picture of the CME structure: Maybe I will take another combination when the cloud is a bit bigger. Is this CME really that fast (1251km/s)? Just 33h to arrive without delay? But how much will be the slowing down factor when reaching earth? Surely it will take more than 33h ...hmmm...🤔 Regards, Chris Edited March 28, 2022 by Chris, HB9DFG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cat Perkinton Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 4 minutes ago, Solarflaretracker200 said: I have never seen solar activity so crazy like today. And that from a person who is riding a turkey? 🤣 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LunarLights58 Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 M level x-ray flux again? Wow, alright then, 2975. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solarflaretracker200 Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 4 minutes ago, Cat Perkinton said: And that from a person who is riding a turkey? 🤣 Yeah, its hard to watch space weather from this crazy-WHOA- sorry, i was going to say its hard to ride a crazy turkey 🤣🤣 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 1 hour ago, Vancanneyt Sander said: It’s 2975 that began crackling with C-s the last hour with a touch of M Yeah. I meant something else tho.. sorry i maybe described it badly. The region turning onto disk rn, is it contributing to the flux or only 2975 ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 8 minuten geleden, MinYoongi zei: The region turning onto disk rn, is it contributing to the flux or only 2975 ? Barely, all activity last 6 hours comes from the rapidly intensifying 2975. It’s also clear in the solar flare list of the day and Just by watching the region on SDO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lightpanther Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 Regardless of how much of the ejecta ever reaches earth, Scotland looks like it'll be neck deep in cloud when it arrives, alas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 It is only 2975 right now that is throwing its toys out of the pram. She's boiling with activity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solarflaretracker200 Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 What did that sunspot wake up with? Coffee??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 38 minuten geleden, Chris, HB9DFG zei: Hello all! I just played with two shots of the LASCO pictures (12:42 and 16:06UTC) to create a nice picture of the CME structure: Maybe I will take another combination when the cloud is a bit bigger. Is this CME really that fast (1251km/s)? Just 33h to arrive without delay? But how much will be the slowing down factor when reaching earth? Surely it will take more than 33h ...hmmm...🤔 Regards, Chris You cant use the speed of the Type II sweep. The CME is much slower, CACtus does a decent jobb. https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/solar-activity/latest-cmes.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flareguy18 Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 SWPC just put out a G2 watch for March 31st (UTC). Space Weather Message Code: WATA30 Serial Number: 202 Issue Time: 2022 Mar 28 1951 UTC WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G2 Predicted Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day: Mar 29: None (Below G1) Mar 30: None (Below G1) Mar 31: G2 (Moderate) THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms. Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible. Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes. Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 I am seriously impressed by the magnetic layout and activity on display here from sunspot region 2975. I'd bet we get an M5+ solar flare within the next 24 hours from this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solarflaretracker200 Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 Just now, Marcel de Bont said: I am seriously impressed by the magnetic layout and activity on display here from sunspot region 2975. I'd bet we get an M5+ solar flare within the next 24 hours from this thing. X flare??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 1 minuut geleden, Flareguy18 zei: SWPC just put out a G2 watch for March 31st (UTC). You are right! Might be slightly optimistic just looking at the CME but cant blame them for putting out the watch anyway. 1 minuut geleden, Solarflaretracker200 zei: X flare??? Cant rule it out at this point, I like what I see. Lets hope for the best. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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