Isatsuki San Posted March 29, 2022 Share Posted March 29, 2022 5 minutes ago, Orneno said: I’m sorry, I don’t understand what you are asking here. I was wondering what you thought about sunspot 2975 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted March 29, 2022 Author Share Posted March 29, 2022 11 minutes ago, Isatsuki San said: I was wondering what you thought about sunspot 2975 Same as everyone else here. It’s the most complicated magnetic polarities of any AR we’ve seen this cycle so far, and has sustained the highest background X-ray flux so far, along with 5+ M-class flares. It’s pretty big, but more importantly, it’s very complex. And it doesn’t look to be decaying yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solarflaretracker200 Posted March 29, 2022 Share Posted March 29, 2022 4 hours ago, Sammyy said: I would like to order 3 x-flares pls I’ll take that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KW2P Posted March 29, 2022 Share Posted March 29, 2022 (edited) I'd say 72,048 seconds from the time CME 2 launched at a distance of 36 million km from the sun. But I may have made a mistake. Haven't checked my work yet. Lol. EDIT: Looks right. CME1 launches at time 0, velocity 355 km/s. CME2 launches 30,240 seconds later, velocity 504 km/s. At that time CME1 is 10.7 million km from the sun. Velocity difference is 149 km/s. So CME2 traveling 149 km/s faster takes 72,048 seconds to make up that 10.7 million km difference. Edited March 29, 2022 by KW2P Added text 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted March 29, 2022 Share Posted March 29, 2022 24 minutes ago, KW2P said: CME1 launches at time 0, velocity 355 km/s. CME2 launches 30,240 seconds later, velocity 504 km/s Just wondering, where are those velocities available? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KW2P Posted March 29, 2022 Share Posted March 29, 2022 5 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: Just wondering, where are those velocities available? I got the data from an earlier comment in this thread asking for a solution. I meant to quote the post in my reply but failed to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted March 29, 2022 Share Posted March 29, 2022 2 minutes ago, KW2P said: I got the data from an earlier comment in this thread asking for a solution. I meant to quote the post in my reply but failed to. Ah, I see it. I'm wondering how cactus gets the speed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted March 29, 2022 Share Posted March 29, 2022 2 hours ago, Drax Spacex said: Homework Problem Given: Cactus calculated CME #1 to have a speed of 355 km/s. Cactus calculated CME #2 to have a speed of 504 km/s. #1 2022/03/28 12:00| 01 | 306| 146| 0355| 0065| 0221| 0520| II #2 2022/03/28 20:24| 02 | 301| 160| 0504| 0043| 0416| 0589| II Find: The date and time when CME #2 will catch up with CME #1 Is the first one really that slow? Btw: why no updated Goes Data? No Xray Flux and all pics Black Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick P.A. Geryl Posted March 29, 2022 Share Posted March 29, 2022 1 uur geleden, Orneno zei: Same as everyone else here. It’s the most complicated magnetic polarities of any AR we’ve seen this cycle so far, and has sustained the highest background X-ray flux so far, along with 5+ M-class flares. It’s pretty big, but more importantly, it’s very complex. And it doesn’t look to be decaying yet. It is the sunspot we predicted in Coming sunspots! quote: Hidghly complex sunspot March 20-22 visible on Stereo March 21… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted March 29, 2022 Share Posted March 29, 2022 2 minutes ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said: Hidghly complex sunspot March 20-22 Actually the sunspot region exploded on the 27th. A smaller magnetic region popped up mid-day on the 26th and seemed to set off a chain reaction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drax Spacex Posted March 29, 2022 Share Posted March 29, 2022 48 minutes ago, KW2P said: I'd say 72,048 seconds from the time CME 2 launched at a distance of 36 million km from the sun. But I may have made a mistake. Haven't checked my work yet. Lol. EDIT: Looks right. CME1 launches at time 0, velocity 355 km/s. CME2 launches 30,240 seconds later, velocity 504 km/s. At that time CME1 is 10.7 million km from the sun. Velocity difference is 149 km/s. So CME2 traveling 149 km/s faster takes 72,048 seconds to make up that 10.7 million km difference. Yes, KW2P, that's what I calculated also: 72048 seconds=20hrs 2022/03/28 20:24 UTC + 20hr = 2022/03/29 16:24 UTC x=x0+v*t CME #1 had a 8hr24min head start. In that time, it had traveled 355km/s*((8*60+24)*60)s=10735200km. CME #2 is traveling (504-355)km/s=149km/s faster than CME #1. The time it would take for CME #2 to travel the make-up distance to catch CME #1 is 10735200km/149km/s=72048s=1201min=20hr 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted March 29, 2022 Share Posted March 29, 2022 8 minutes ago, Drax Spacex said: Yes, KW2P, that's what I calculated also: 72048 seconds=20hrs 2022/03/28 20:24 UTC + 20hr = 2022/03/29 16:24 UTC x=x0+v*t CME #1 had a 8hr24min head start. In that time, it had traveled 355km/s*((8*60+24)*60)s=10735200km. CME #2 is traveling (504-355)km/s=149km/s faster than CME #1. The time it would take for CME #2 to travel the make-up distance to catch CME #1 is 10735200km/149km/s=72048s=1201min=20hr So they will not interact? Or merge? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drax Spacex Posted March 29, 2022 Share Posted March 29, 2022 18 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: Ah, I see it. I'm wondering how cactus gets the speed. Good question. The cactus estimates of speed may be based on two dimensional imagery alone without estimating the velocity component along the Sun->Earth vector. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted March 29, 2022 Share Posted March 29, 2022 (edited) 4 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: So they will not interact? Or merge? Only time will tell. The velocities from cactus are estimations and may have a similar result as model runs. 2 minutes ago, Drax Spacex said: Good question. The cactus estimates of speed may be based on two dimensional imagery alone without estimating the velocity component along the Sun->Earth vector. Yeah, I just couldn't find the exact matching numbers, so I wasn't sure of it what you shared came from cactus lol. Edited March 29, 2022 by Jesterface23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drax Spacex Posted March 29, 2022 Share Posted March 29, 2022 (edited) 41 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: Btw: why no updated Goes Data? No Xray Flux and all pics Black It's back now - GOES view of the Sun was temporarily eclipsed by the Earth. 16 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: Only time will tell. The velocities from cactus are estimations and may have a similar result as model runs. Yeah, I just couldn't find the exact matching numbers, so I wasn't sure of it what you shared came from cactus lol. Ah - I see the discrepancy in the numbers not matching - the cactus values for the median velocity changed between now and when I first pulled the data for the rows with halo type II: https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/solar-activity/latest-cmes.html Edited March 29, 2022 by Drax Spacex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KW2P Posted March 29, 2022 Share Posted March 29, 2022 16 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: So they will not interact? Or merge? They will definitely collide. knowing whether they merge is above my pay grade. Hahaha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted March 29, 2022 Share Posted March 29, 2022 12 minutes ago, KW2P said: They will definitely collide. knowing whether they merge is above my pay grade. Hahaha. You already did awesome math 😅! I still wonder what flicked the switch for this region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KW2P Posted March 29, 2022 Share Posted March 29, 2022 6 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: You already did awesome math 😅! I still wonder what flicked the switch for this region. Lol, thanks, but I think I'd lose my engineer stripes if I couldn't solve that one. The simple answer is the convection patterns underneath 2975 which create and shape the magnetic fields, but you already knew that. Sufficient complexity of the fields results in a lot of "conflict" as the fields wrestle with each other and so instability. I liken the photosphere to watching a pot of boiling water in slow motion or watching the growth of a cumulus cloud. Can you predict exactly what each little parcel of water or air is going to do? No, because the motion is chaotic. We can assign probabilities but no hard answers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3gMike Posted March 29, 2022 Share Posted March 29, 2022 3 hours ago, Jesterface23 said: Actually the sunspot region exploded on the 27th. A smaller magnetic region popped up mid-day on the 26th and seemed to set off a chain reaction. To be fair to Patrick he did also say he expected it to grow more complex in 5 days, so his prediction does seem to be reasonably consistent with the development of AR2975 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted March 29, 2022 Share Posted March 29, 2022 39 minutes ago, 3gMike said: To be fair to Patrick he did also say he expected it to grow more complex in 5 days, so his prediction does seem to be reasonably consistent with the development of AR2975 Can we kindly keep the pseudoscience out of this thread. There is a thread for this already 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solarflaretracker200 Posted March 29, 2022 Share Posted March 29, 2022 (edited) No X class flare happened while I was sleeping? I am surprised THE SUN IS STILL GOING NUTS AND I LOVE IT. Edited March 29, 2022 by Solarflaretracker200 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted March 29, 2022 Share Posted March 29, 2022 An m class flare happened like 2 hours ago :D!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solarflaretracker200 Posted March 29, 2022 Share Posted March 29, 2022 1 minute ago, MinYoongi said: An m class flare happened like 2 hours ago :D!! They have been constant asf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted March 29, 2022 Share Posted March 29, 2022 3 minutes ago, Solarflaretracker200 said: They have been constant asf. " Initial analysis and modeling indicated Earth-directed transients from both events with speeds of 667 km/s and 841 km/s respectively. The second and faster CME is expected to catch up and combine with the first transient from the M4 event. The combined arrival of both events at the magnetosphere protecting Earth is expected early on 31 March. Additional analysis and tweaking of the forecast is expected to continue throughout today." New forecast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3gMike Posted March 29, 2022 Share Posted March 29, 2022 4 hours ago, MinYoongi said: Can we kindly keep the pseudoscience out of this thread. There is a thread for this already You are addressing your comment to the wrong person. I was simply responding to earlier posts by Patrick Geryl and Jesterface. If you are willing to open your mind, and use real scientific rigour, instead of branding alternative views as pseudoscience, you might learn something useful. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now