Solarflaretracker200 Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 Now that was just a surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flareguy18 Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 1 minute ago, Orneno said: It's got a solar tsunami, yeah. Very good sign. The coronal dimming and CME is already showing up strong, even though it has not processed the whole event yet. Is this from CACTus? Where do you find this imagery? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted March 30, 2022 Author Share Posted March 30, 2022 1 minute ago, LunarLights58 said: Now we wait for LASCO Can't wait! Just now, Flareguy18 said: Is this from CACTus? Where do you find this imagery? this is the coronal dimming detection page. The X event is at the top of the list, currently says M8. click on it, and you can see the black (dimming), and the CME (white) in the middle image. https://wwwbis.sidc.be/solardemon/dimmings.php 2 minutes ago, Flareguy18 said: Can't wait to see what it looks like in LASCO. Gonna be epic. Not a squarely-faced AR group but still fairly close. First-look guesses at the CME from the solar dimming page seems to suggest the CME has a strong SE component, so it may land a good hit. Also, remember the Parker Spiral effect is favorable for CMEs on the westerly side of center disk. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drax Spacex Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 15 hours ago, Drax Spacex said: Shearing (increasing separation between spots of opposite polarity?) and sunspots observed rotating about their umbra could be a prelude to an X-flare - as though the sunspots are shifting and circulating around seeking to find the right positional combination to unlock the flare! SWPC describes AR2975 (N13W25, Dhc/beta-gamma-delta) as "continuing to exhibit significant reorganization within its intermediate and leader spots, with shearing evident throughout the period." This X flare wasn't too much of a surprise. The writing was pretty much on the wall, and the pieces were in place to provide a good probability of occurrence. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted March 30, 2022 Author Share Posted March 30, 2022 Looks like it's long-duration! I'm just surprised we haven't gotten any radio emissions from the CME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tristan Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 6 minutes ago, Orneno said: It's got a solar tsunami, yeah. Very good sign. The coronal dimming and CME is already showing up strong, even though it has not processed the whole event yet. Looks asymmetric again. This time the wave towards center disk. Could be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted March 30, 2022 Author Share Posted March 30, 2022 Just now, Tristan said: Looks asymmetric again. This time the wave towards center disk. Could be interesting. Exactly the way we want it to go! I just hope it doesn't turn out like the CME from the X1 in late October (day late, complete dud) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LunarLights58 Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 Little question, where did the 2022/03/30 06:24 CME come from? 8 minutes ago, Orneno said: Looks like it's long-duration! I'm just surprised we haven't gotten any radio emissions from the CME. https://twitter.com/_SpaceWeather_/status/1509232780936368131?t=2j3gWfaAF2IXsIwWWmR18Q&s=19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted March 30, 2022 Author Share Posted March 30, 2022 And there's the type II radio emission! CME on the way!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flareguy18 Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 Here's your radio sweep! It's a fast one!! ALERT: Type II Radio Emission Begin Time: 2022 Mar 30 1732 UTC Estimated Velocity: 1424 km/s 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tristan Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 3 minutes ago, LunarLights58 said: Little question, where did the 2022/03/30 06:24 CME come from? https://twitter.com/_SpaceWeather_/status/1509232780936368131?t=2j3gWfaAF2IXsIwWWmR18Q&s=19 Farside as confirmed by SWPC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedreamon Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 Is that actually accurate? I remember seeing the velocity for the CMEs from the two M-Class flares being ~1200km/s, yet their arrival time was 3 days out instead of 1 day, ~10 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted March 30, 2022 Author Share Posted March 30, 2022 Right on cue. Sander or Marcel (whoever wrote this) are cautious in this post, but I think it's safe to say there was a CME, and a significant one at that. Of course, we don't know how Earth-directed it may be, but there's almost sure to be a significant CME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flareguy18 Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 2 minutes ago, Bedreamon said: Is that actually accurate? I remember seeing the velocity for the CMEs from the two M-Class flares being ~1200km/s, yet their arrival time was 3 days out instead of 1 day, ~10 hours out. The radio sweep speed usually doesn't equal CME speed, but they aren't always too far off. CME clouds slow down once they leave the solar disk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted March 30, 2022 Author Share Posted March 30, 2022 1 minute ago, Bedreamon said: Is that actually accurate? I remember seeing the velocity for the CMEs from the two M-Class flares being ~1200km/s, yet their arrival time was 3 days out instead of 1 day, ~10 hours out. CMEs slow down substantially as they pass through space between the Sun and Earth, to a degree that's very hard to predict. But in almost all past cases the CME has been much slower at earth than launch speed, except sometimes when a CME just before it helped clear the way. Actually, could this be the case here? Could the cannibal CME have cleared the way to let this one maintain a very high speed? Or was it too long ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tristan Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 1 minute ago, Orneno said: Right on cue. Sander or Marcel (whoever wrote this) are cautious in this post, but I think it's safe to say there was a CME, and a significant one at that. Of course, we don't know how Earth-directed it may be, but there's almost sure to be a significant CME. And the way will have been cleared by the CMEs that are already on their way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flareguy18 Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 Type IV burst as well! Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP4 Serial Number: 565 Issue Time: 2022 Mar 30 1822 UTC ALERT: Type IV Radio Emission Begin Time: 2022 Mar 30 1734 UTC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted March 30, 2022 Author Share Posted March 30, 2022 Just now, Flareguy18 said: Type IV burst as well! Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP4 Serial Number: 565 Issue Time: 2022 Mar 30 1822 UTC ALERT: Type IV Radio Emission Begin Time: 2022 Mar 30 1734 UTC Huh, I didn't get a notification yet. Good to see though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flareguy18 Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 1 minute ago, Orneno said: CMEs slow down substantially as they pass through space between the Sun and Earth, to a degree that's very hard to predict. But in almost all past cases the CME has been much slower at earth than launch speed, except sometimes when a CME just before it helped clear the way. Actually, could this be the case here? Could the cannibal CME have cleared the way to let this one maintain a very high speed? Or was it too long ago? The CME clearing effect can last for days. I definitely think there would be some effect from the earlier ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LunarLights58 Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 Guess I'll be spending a lot of nights outside soon. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted March 30, 2022 Author Share Posted March 30, 2022 1 minute ago, Flareguy18 said: The CME clearing effect can last for days. I definitely think there would be some effect from the earlier ones. This could be a real banger then. (We don't know until we see LASCO of course though) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flareguy18 Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 Anyone think there will be a proton storm with this as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isatsuki San Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 4 minutes ago, Orneno said: Las CME se ralentizan sustancialmente a medida que pasan por el espacio entre el Sol y la Tierra, hasta un punto que es muy difícil de predecir. Pero en casi todos los casos anteriores, la CME ha sido mucho más lenta en la Tierra que la velocidad de lanzamiento, excepto a veces cuando una CME justo antes ayudó a despejar el camino. En realidad, ¿podría ser este el caso aquí? ¿Podría el caníbal CME haber despejado el camino para dejar que este mantuviera una velocidad muy alta? ¿O fue hace mucho tiempo? maybe another quebec solar storm? I mean, I remember that it was said that the Quebec solar storm was a flare x that was cleared by a flare before, I don't know if I'm wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted March 30, 2022 Author Share Posted March 30, 2022 Only just now dropped back below M-class, it's long-duration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isatsuki San Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 2 minutes ago, Flareguy18 said: Anyone think there will be a proton storm with this as well? there are no protons going up, so I don't think there will be chances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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