Flareguy18 Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, Marcel de Bont said: I am seriously impressed by the magnetic layout and activity on display here from sunspot region 2975. I'd bet we get an M5+ solar flare within the next 24 hours from this thing. I definitely agree. This is one of the more impressive sunspot groups so far this cycle. It's active right now with high level C-activity. Keeps threatening to cross back into M! 1 minute ago, Solarflaretracker200 said: X flare??? It's possible! Something this complex will carry that potential. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tristan Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 1 minute ago, Solarflaretracker200 said: X flare??? Yeah, it looks that way. We have not seen anything close to this level of complexity since September 2017. This is nothing close to that yet, but I would be surprised if it didn't produce at least one X-flare. It is still in a growth phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 Short question, does someone know why GOES isnt updating rn? I remember it sometimes having outages Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
farm24 Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 Just now, MinYoongi said: Short question, does someone know why GOES isnt updating rn? I remember it sometimes having outages Probably an eclipse (when the moon goes in front of GOES) Also it appears the 2975 is now a B-G-D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flareguy18 Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 5 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: Short question, does someone know why GOES isnt updating rn? I remember it sometimes having outages It appears to be updating on my end. Last X-ray flux update was 2035 UTC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 5 minutes ago, Flareguy18 said: It appears to be updating on my end. Last X-ray flux update was 2035 UTC. Yup! Was an issue on my end !! Is the region still growing? Is it likely to die down soon? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flareguy18 Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 4 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: Yup! Was an issue on my end !! Is the region still growing? Is it likely to die down soon? Glad it's working! The region is still in a growth phase, so I wouldn't say it's dying down yet. X-ray flux is current mid to upper C-class, so it's probably going to produce more activity soon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 3 minutes ago, Flareguy18 said: Glad it's working! The region is still in a growth phase, so I wouldn't say it's dying down yet. X-ray flux is current mid to upper C-class, so it's probably going to produce more activity soon. Ah! I know its hard to predict sunspot growth, but how do you define a grow phase? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flareguy18 Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 (edited) 3 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: Ah! I know its hard to predict sunspot growth, but how do you define a grow phase? If a sunspot group appears to be increasing in size, developing more spots, and is becoming more magnetically complex, I call that a growth phase. Currently, AR2975 has been expanding and developing new spots, and also now has a beta-gamma-delta magnetic field which indicates plenty of complexity. Will just have to keep watching to see what it does 🙂 And here we go again! Yet another M-class flare has started 👀 Edited March 28, 2022 by Flareguy18 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris, HB9DFG Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 OK, here is another combination of the LASCO shots (1930 and 1206UTC): Regards, Chris Test with an online GIF-maker with the two files I posted earlier, I hope it works: Regads, Chris 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LunarLights58 Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 I think something's wrong. SWPC classed 2975 (the one we're talking about) as just beta, but 2976 as beta-delta? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KW2P Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 I'm working on my radio station equipment today, not operating on the air, so now's a good time for the sun to act up. Let it rip! 😀 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sammyy Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 I would like to order 3 x-flares pls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 There is a second CME incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Silver Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 Incoming indeed. Updated Enlil Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 5 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: There is a second CME incoming. Really? Enlil looks like 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flareguy18 Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 6 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: There is a second CME incoming. Yup, just saw it in LASCO. Looks to be another halo event! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 1 minute ago, MinYoongi said: Really? Enlil looks like 1 It launched 3 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sirvegs Posted March 28, 2022 Share Posted March 28, 2022 Man! I usually just lurk here but this activity is astonishing! It makes me even more excited for the solar max. Finger's crossed that Thursday's forecast stays clear for me! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drax Spacex Posted March 29, 2022 Share Posted March 29, 2022 (edited) 16 hours ago, MinYoongi said: Really? Enlil looks like 1 Typically we only see 1 CME modeled by WSA-Enlil, but I now see in the updated Enlil run they have incorporated 2 CMEs. Yep Double whammy CMEs. Stereo A confirms the second CME is Earth-directed with a similar profile as the first CME - though the second CME may be a slightly stronger and faster. I don't hear the cannibal CME drums just yet, but... Edited March 29, 2022 by Drax Spacex 2 CMEs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted March 29, 2022 Share Posted March 29, 2022 Im bad with cme forecasting. Does the 2nd one looks like it will boost impact by alot? Some opinions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flareguy18 Posted March 29, 2022 Share Posted March 29, 2022 8 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: Im bad with cme forecasting. Does the 2nd one looks like it will boost impact by alot? Some opinions? The 2nd CME looks potentially faster/stronger so it could sweep the first one up. The result could be a stronger geomagnetic storm, but it's pretty early on in the forecast/analysis. Awaiting to see what SWPC says... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted March 29, 2022 Share Posted March 29, 2022 1 minute ago, Flareguy18 said: The 2nd CME looks potentially faster/stronger so it could sweep the first one up. The result could be a stronger geomagnetic storm, but it's pretty early on in the forecast/analysis. Awaiting to see what SWPC says... Does it really? It was a pretty short M1 Flare compared to the somewhat long m4 flare. Wow i think the region calmed down for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted March 29, 2022 Share Posted March 29, 2022 (edited) I managed to just about match the SWPC WSA-ENLIL model on the first one, see if this can do the same lol. For this second CME I'll have a preliminary arrival at /31 14:00Z +-6 hours at L1. I think STEREO A will take a direct impact by the first CME, but a side impact by this one. Edited March 29, 2022 by Jesterface23 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flareguy18 Posted March 29, 2022 Share Posted March 29, 2022 2 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: Does it really? It was a pretty short M1 Flare compared to the somewhat long m4 flare. Wow i think the region calmed down for now Flare was weaker, but often when you have multiple CMES in a shorter timeframe, the successive ones become faster because the interplanetary medium is "cleared out" by the earlier CMEs. That's what can make the later ones faster. The AR region is still crackling with some lower level activity but I still think we will see more M-class activity before long. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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