MinYoongi Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 Just now, Philalethes said: I believe we might have arrival already, just now. At least the Bt just spiked by quite a bit. what would that mean KP wise? Do you think the prediction for the BZ works? i dont see anything in ace data really.. (put my real time solar wind on ace only) 1 minute ago, Philalethes said: Speed and density too, by the looks of it. Seems like this might be it already indeed. where do you guys see it? i dont see any spikes yet? do you have earlier data than me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted March 24 Author Share Posted March 24 The arrival instantly broke DSCOVR's data lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 speed of 583KMS makes no sense for such a fast arrival Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted March 24 Author Share Posted March 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 Just now, Jesterface23 said: Thank you, the speed now loaded for me. im using the SWPC website real solar wind panel which seems to be a bit behind. Ace shows a speed of 821. (Funfact, i think i mentioned this a couple times already but i dont get tired of it, i once witnessed a coronal hole giving speeds around 800kms in 2019!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Misaka Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 Then I wish the people in Siberia and Australia a great Northern Lights show 🙂 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 3 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: The arrival instantly broke DSCOVR's data lol yeah i think its susceptibility with stronger impacts are still there.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 1 minute ago, MinYoongi said: what would that mean KP wise? Do you think the prediction for the BZ works? i dont see anything in ace data really.. (put my real time solar wind on ace only) Well, the previous flux rope that also hit SolO seemed to have preserved its orientation, so this one could conceivably also do so. At least it had the expected configuration when it hit SolO as it would've had upon launch, which might be an indication that it won't be ideal. But the sheath itself can definitely have a lot of impact if we get some periods of sustained negative Bz during it regardless. Will be interesting to see how it plays out, the fact that it's this early is at least a good sign all else equal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arjemma Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 4 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: The arrival instantly broke DSCOVR's data lol Yep, I was just about to write that. I want DSCVOR data lol (for near true density). Just like I wrote yesterday that I was afraid of... Anyway's, I'm excited!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 2 minutes ago, Philalethes said: Well, the previous flux rope that also hit SolO seemed to have preserved its orientation, so this one could conceivably also do so. At least it had the expected configuration when it hit SolO as it would've had upon launch, which might be an indication that it won't be ideal. But the sheath itself can definitely have a lot of impact if we get some periods of sustained negative Bz during it regardless. Will be interesting to see how it plays out, the fact that it's this early is at least a good sign all else equal. Do you also believe the whole rope-forecasting thing to be incredibly interesting? Its so cool. I think some scientists even work on 3-d modelling of CME's for that. on a side note, how long does a sheath last with those speeds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aurora Compass Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 If this is the CME from yesterday it's traveling about 1120 km/s. There should be a spike in magnetometers at around 14:29 UTC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted March 24 Author Share Posted March 24 How you know we are getting the better impact, SA is still waiting for the CME Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peter Sedlák Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 So it has arrived already? Does it mean it is stronger and faster when it arrived earlier than expected? I mean I couldn't care less, because of CLOUDS, but is G4 possible? At least if those rainshowers were stronger.... NW wind sucks this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tniickck Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 i am waiting for the g5😛 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted March 24 Author Share Posted March 24 1 minute ago, Peter Sedlák said: So it has arrived already? Does it mean it is stronger and faster when it arrived earlier than expected? I mean I couldn't care less, because of CLOUDS, but is G4 possible? It had a 37 hour travel time. Hopefully we get one good geomagnetic storm out of this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SamDieGurke Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 1 minute ago, tniickck said: i am waiting for the g5😛 Would be the biggest comeback of this cycle haha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MeteoLatvia Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 Congratulations on the CME impact! It tricked us all with arriving earlier than expected. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members only Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 Has anyone watch dr Tabitha Skov’s recent video? It was very informative but she mentions that she’d be concerned if we were hit by multiple events back to back. She indicates she would be concerned in other ways than for the power grid I believe. Any other concerns other than the power grid that space weather can affect us on earth? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 4 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: Do you also believe the whole rope-forecasting thing to be incredibly interesting? Its so cool. I think some scientists even work on 3-d modelling of CME's for that. on a side note, how long does a sheath last with those speeds? Yeah, that was definitely a serendipitous coincidence, and great that the people at ASWO jumped on the opportunity to model forecasts from it so quickly. As for the sheath, I'm guessing it will pass by over the course of 4-5 hours or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 6 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: How you know we are getting the better impact, SA is still waiting for the CME Came here to ask this! 2 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: It had a 37 hour travel time. Hopefully we get one good geomagnetic storm out of this one What do you expect? G3 Possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Misaka Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 1 minute ago, Members only said: Has anyone watch dr Tabitha Skov’s recent video? It was very informative but she mentions that she’d be concerned if we were hit by multiple events back to back. She indicates she would be concerned in other ways than for the power grid I believe. Any other concerns other than the power grid that space weather can affect us on earth? At an event of this size I don't expect any effect other than great northern lights. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 1 minute ago, Philalethes said: Yeah, that was definitely a serendipitous coincidence, and great that the people at ASWO jumped on the opportunity to model forecasts from it so quickly. As for the sheath, I'm guessing it will pass by over the course of 4-5 hours or so. Thanks. what KP do you expect due to the early arrival? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tniickck Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 4 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: It had a 37 hour travel time. Hopefully we get one good geomagnetic storm out of this one what speed should be here? 1100? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted March 24 Author Share Posted March 24 1 minute ago, MinYoongi said: What do you expect? G3 Possible? G4 possible Just now, tniickck said: what speed should be here? 1100? Solar wind velocities at around 800km/s are expected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sotiris Konstantis Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 Wow! Earlier arrival let's see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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