MinYoongi Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 1 minute ago, Parabolic said: Watching Phi it looks like it will go south again but might not go as far south because of the speed Marcel mentioned. Since I'm in a snow storm it will probably have the best viewing conditions since last years G4 How is the Phi related to the BZ? Interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isatsuki San Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 4 minutes ago, Marcel de Bont said: Severe G4 geomagnetic storm conditions (Kp8) have now been observed due to the ongoing effects of the X1.1 coronal mass ejection. The north-south orientation of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) has rotated northward however which will suppress auroral activity soon but keep an eye on the data to see if the Bz component of the IMF will turn southward again later today. The solar wind speed remains high at 800km/s which does somewhat mitigate the negative effects of the northward Bz component but for aurora at low latitudes like Germany we do want a southward Bz component as it gets darker. One question, if the bz went south, could it reach a G5, or will it stay at a G4? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 The observations made by Solar Orbiter signaled we'd get a mostly southward Bz component during the shock and once the core of the CME passes we say a constant northward Bz. Don't want to be a negative Nancy but thus far this scenario is playing out. However, there is 0.6au between Solar Orbiter and Earth where anything can happen. So don't give up yet. But we have to hope we do not get a repeat scenario of what Solar Orbiter observed. Zojuist, Isatsuki San zei: One question, if the bz went south, could it reach a G5, or will it stay at a G4? I do not think we will get G5 today, while impressive, the solar wind and IMF stats are not favorable enough for extreme G5 storm conditions. Especially with the current northward Bz. If this persist we will not even see G4 anymore. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 1 minute ago, Marcel de Bont said: The observations made by Solar Orbiter signaled we'd get a mostly southward Bz component during the shock and once the core of the CME passes we say a constant northward Bz. Don't want to be a negative Nancy but thus far this scenario is playing out. However, there is 0.6au between Solar Orbiter and Earth where anything can happen. So don't give up yet. But we have to hope we do not get a repeat scenario of what Solar Orbiter observed. absolutely agree. what i wonder, was the sheath really only 1:30h ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted March 24 Author Share Posted March 24 1 minute ago, Marcel de Bont said: However, there is 0.6au between Solar Orbiter and Earth (And 9 degrees off the Earth-Sun line) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jamie McBean Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 1 minute ago, Marcel de Bont said: The observations made by Solar Orbiter signaled we'd get a mostly southward Bz component during the shock and once the core of the CME passes we say a constant northward Bz. Don't want to be a negative Nancy but thus far this scenario is playing out. However, there is 0.6au between Solar Orbiter and Earth where anything can happen. So don't give up yet. But we have to hope we do not get a repeat scenario of what Solar Orbiter observed. I was thinking this too, data side by side isn't too dissimilar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 Zojuist, MinYoongi zei: absolutely agree. what i wonder, was the sheath really only 1:30h ? Could be yes with this speed. Solar Orbiter encountered the core of the CME 1:15h after the shock arrival. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arjemma Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 (edited) 2 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: absolutely agree. what i wonder, was the sheath really only 1:30h ? I think it hit around 14 UTC so I would say around 2 hours at least. It does look like we are entering the core now if we check the temperature. Edited March 24 by arjemma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted March 24 Author Share Posted March 24 3 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: absolutely agree. what i wonder, was the sheath really only 1:30h ? The sheath and flux rope both expand as the shock of the CME is faster and the end of the CME is slower. The flux rope should kick in in maybe another 2 or 3 hours. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 1 minute ago, Jesterface23 said: The sheath and flux rope both expand as the shock of the CME is faster and the end of the CME is slower. The flux rope should kick in in maybe another 2 or 3 hours. So we#ve not yet entered the rope and are in a positive part of the sheath, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 2 minuten geleden, Jesterface23 zei: The sheath and flux rope both expand as the shock of the CME is faster and the end of the CME is slower. The flux rope should kick in in maybe another 2 or 3 hours. You are right this is still the sheath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parabolic Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 (edited) 11 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: How is the Phi related to the BZ? Interesting When phi trends on the positive sector or away from earth, bz begins to go northward. Negative Phi or towards, bz begins to go southward. When there has been tons of oscillation in the phi negative, bz goes much farther south. I don't think this happens in every situation but for me it's a matter of pattern recognition. Edited March 24 by Parabolic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 6 minutes ago, arjemma said: I think it hit around 14 UTC so I would say around 2 hours at least. It does look like we are entering the core now if we check the temperature. Oh, right, temperature. i always forget that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted March 24 Author Share Posted March 24 The EPAMp is still holding in the 6 digits still being in the sheath, so hopefully the flux rope is good. We are taking a slightly more direct hit than the Solar Orbiter as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 1 minute ago, Jesterface23 said: The EPAMp is still holding in the 6 digits still being in the sheath, so hopefully the flux rope is good. We are taking a slightly more direct hit than the Solar Orbiter as well. What does the strength say about the flux rope? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted March 24 Author Share Posted March 24 1 minute ago, MinYoongi said: What does the strength say about the flux rope? Normally it means there still something pretty good to come, but all we can do is wait and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 Met office and i think swpc have issued G4 warning until 18UTC. is that realistic? Just now, Jesterface23 said: Normally it means there still something pretty good to come, but all we can do is wait and see. nice Can someone maybe explain to me why the Noaa swpc home page shows me -8bz but this shows me +3 ? https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/real-time-solar-wind Dscovr shows -9 and Ace shows 2 positive. how can that be? Which spacecraft to trust? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowa Cloud Chaser Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 I'd normally trust DCSOVR more because it's not as likely to error Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GameSki Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 Needless to say at this point, but it is still in fact cloudy :/ Such a good setup and yet... Hopefully I'll get lucky some other time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted March 24 Author Share Posted March 24 (edited) 2 minutes ago, Iowa Cloud Chaser said: I'd normally trust DCSOVR more because it's not as likely to error That's like using a TDWR to chase tornadoes when NEXRAD is available Edited March 24 by Jesterface23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 Just now, Jesterface23 said: That's like using a TDWR to chase tornadoes when NEXRAD is available I also like ace better, in my opinion its more reliable why isnt the positive BZ dampening/hindering the storming? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 4 minuten geleden, MinYoongi zei: I also like ace better, in my opinion its more reliable why isnt the positive BZ dampening/hindering the storming? Northward Bz does not turn off the northern lights immediately. Think of our magnetosphere like a battery which charges at different rates depending on the solar wind speed and IMF polarity and discharges at random intervals and also at different speeds. Does that make sense? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 Just awoke. Kp8?!!!! Awsome 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 3 minutes ago, Marcel de Bont said: Northward Bz does not turn off the northern lights immediately. Think of our magnetosphere like a battery which charges at different rates depending on the solar wind speed and IMF polarity and discharges at random intervals and also at different speeds. Does that make sense? it does make alot of sense, thank you. Its always easier to understand complexer stuff with examples like this I thought the positive BZ would "end" the G4. Just now, hamateur 1953 said: Just awoke. Kp8?!!!! Awsome Good morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlbertoGirardi Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 Quick question: I live at 46N latitude, in Italy, there are no clouds and I have a clear northern horizon until the mountains (less than 5 degrees from true horizon). Will I be able to see something? I have seen pictures of auroras from the September 2023 storm, but I don't understand why we could see them because we were not under the colored part of the aurora oval chart. Also, is there any chance of spotting them with the naked I or should I only with a camera? I am an amateur astronomer btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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