Otro Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 I'm ready for it too if it happens. I'm not as well verses with all the technical terms and graph. I understand that the current Bz isn't great. How likely is it to see the northern lights with the current numbers, once it gets dark? What exactly are we waiting for for it to increase the chances of seeing northern lights tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted March 24 Author Share Posted March 24 The SWPC already swapped it back to G2 predicted today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peter Sedlák Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 Oh, Kp5 now. That was a bust not gonna lie. As usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted March 24 Author Share Posted March 24 It looks like it is the flux rope. The temperature dropped and EPAMp started to drop significantly. Ready to see what it can do 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Adrian Kobyłecki Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 1 minute ago, Jesterface23 said: It looks like it is the flux rope. The temperature dropped and EPAMp started to drop significantly. Ready to see what it can do Do you think BZ will turn south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted March 24 Author Share Posted March 24 1 minute ago, Adrian Kobyłecki said: Do you think BZ will turn south? We'll see. Even to start, we are early enough into it that the values could flip at any minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpaceWeather5464 Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 10 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: It looks like it is the flux rope. The temperature dropped and EPAMp started to drop significantly. Ready to see what it can do Getting low. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jamie McBean Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 https://www.iap-kborn.de/index.php?id=871 Rays visible at 54N in Germany currently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Landon Moeller Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 Bz should be moderately to strongly positive for the next 18-24 hours or more. Super short geomagnetic storm! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEAurora Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 5 minutes ago, Landon Moeller said: Bz should be moderately to strongly positive for the next 18-24 hours or more. Super short geomagnetic storm! So, what is this based on? Aside from the fact that it appears we’ve entered the flux rope and that it’s currently positive. Is there data from stereo or some other satellite supporting the persistence? I know that flux ropes have more “stable” magnetic orientations, but they do change throughout, sometimes shifting from north to south or visa-versa. I’m not necessarily disagreeing that this is the case, but I’ve also come to learn that most predicts here are usually pretty speculative. Mostly I’m curious if you know of some information beyond the usually rtsw that might be useful to look at. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Landon Moeller Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 4 minutes ago, NEAurora said: So, what is this based on? Aside from the fact that it appears we’ve entered the flux rope and that it’s currently positive. Is there data from stereo or some other satellite supporting the persistence? I know that flux ropes have more “stable” magnetic orientations, but they do change throughout, sometimes shifting from north to south or visa-versa. I’m not necessarily disagreeing that this is the case, but I’ve also come to learn that most predicts here are usually pretty speculative. Mostly I’m curious if you know of some information beyond the usually rtsw that might be useful to look at. This is a good point. This is based on the fact that we are seeing similar data to Solar Orbiter, and the flux rope is starting out the same way. The only periods of this flux rope where any -Bz might be possible are towards the front and back end as it rotates east to west. Considering Bz is starting out fairly positive -- not a good sign. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Otro Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 Just had some beautiful red northern lights dancing above me for a short moment. Not super bright, but very clearly visible and moving fast. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jamie McBean Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 8 minutes ago, Landon Moeller said: This is a good point. This is based on the fact that we are seeing similar data to Solar Orbiter, and the flux rope is starting out the same way. The only periods of this flux rope where any -Bz might be possible are towards the front and back end as it rotates east to west. Considering Bz is starting out fairly positive -- not a good sign. How are you able to tell the flux rope orientation based off the data? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Landon Moeller Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 42 minutes ago, Jamie McBean said: How are you able to tell the flux rope orientation based off the data? By examination of the By and Bz components. By started out dominantly positive, therefore in an east position. With time, the By component is now weakening and the Bz component is becoming dominantly positive. That's how you know its orientation 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ingolf Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 11 minutes ago, Landon Moeller said: By examination of the By and Bz components. By started out dominantly positive, therefore in an east position. With time, the By component is now weakening and the Bz component is becoming dominantly positive. That's how you know its orientation I really try to understand it. But probably I don't. Can you tell me how do you know the time of 18 to 24 hours in positive direction? Is it not possible that Bz will drop in the next hours again? Thanks in advance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jamie McBean Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 15 minutes ago, Landon Moeller said: By examination of the By and Bz components. By started out dominantly positive, therefore in an east position. With time, the By component is now weakening and the Bz component is becoming dominantly positive. That's how you know its orientation I see thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Landon Moeller Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 30 minutes ago, Ingolf said: I really try to understand it. But probably I don't. Can you tell me how do you know the time of 18 to 24 hours in positive direction? Is it not possible that Bz will drop in the next hours again? Thanks in advance. Such prediction is only possible in flux ropes in which the orientation is known. Since this one is east-north-west, we know it won’t rotate to a *stable* southward position. Solar Orbiter has also been a huge help 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 26 minutes ago, Ingolf said: I really try to understand it. But probably I don't. Can you tell me how do you know the time of 18 to 24 hours in positive direction? Is it not possible that Bz will drop in the next hours again? Thanks in advance. Der CME wurde von einem anderen Satelliten, Solar Orbiter beobachtet da er zufällig fast genau zwischen Sonne und Erde grade Positioniert ist. Somit konnte man ziemlich genau vorhersagen, was für eine "signatur" (OstNordWest) das "Fluxrope" hat. Also was für eine Ausrichtung. Diese Art des Forecastings ist noch sehr unerprobt und neu, und da Solar Orbiter selten in dieser guten Position ist, ist es nicht möglich das immer durchzuführen. Es ist quasi ein bisschen wie Stereo-A. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted March 24 Author Share Posted March 24 ACE is back to its daily bad data Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LunarLights58 Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 Been cloudy here, this sucks for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tino Lehtonen Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 What a real bummer, the grunt of the storm hit during daylight in my location. FMI aurora index was blowing up over 3000. Saw 1200 max during november storm that caused auroras all over Finland. Super fast arrival for a CME! I did manage to capture a strange phenomena: extremely bright, small and transitory (almost comet-looking), white coloured aurora against the bright glow of twilight. Any idea what this kind of phenomena is? Will add media later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herr Salz Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 7 minutes ago, Tino Lehtonen said: What a real bummer, the grunt of the storm hit during daylight in my location. FMI aurora index was blowing up over 3000. Saw 1200 max during november storm that caused auroras all over Finland. Super fast arrival for a CME! I did manage to capture a strange phenomena: extremely bright, small and transitory (almost comet-looking), white coloured aurora against the bright glow of twilight. Any idea what this kind of phenomena is? Will add media later. uhm, show us ?:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tino Lehtonen Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 36 minutes ago, Herr Salz said: uhm, show us ?:) I don't have access to a card reader now so I'll only show these poor quality monitor app screenshots for now. To my eye it seemed like the phenomena was part of the clouds and vanished as they passed the point where the light was. Is it possoble that something came all the way through to lower atmosphere? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isatsuki San Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 And here we see how the flow rope is still in the north, but why is EPSM rising little by little? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 2 minutes ago, Isatsuki San said: And here we see how the flow rope is still in the north, but why is EPSM rising little by little? didnt @Jesterface23 suggest its bad data? it goes up n down very rapidly, looks like bad data indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now