Jesterface23 Posted March 24 Author Share Posted March 24 Yeah, the highest bottom lines of ACE's EPAMp is the most stable right now. The solar wind data is someone reliable if you connect the non-errored points. You need to go to DSCOVR for the MAG data. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Philalethes Posted March 24 Popular Post Share Posted March 24 13 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: Yeah, the highest bottom lines of ACE's EPAMp is the most stable right now. The solar wind data is someone reliable if you connect the non-errored points. You need to go to DSCOVR for the MAG data. Together DSCOVR and ACE make a total of one functioning satellite, heh. 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 4 hours ago, Jesterface23 said: Yeah, the highest bottom lines of ACE's EPAMp is the most stable right now. The solar wind data is someone reliable if you connect the non-errored points. You need to go to DSCOVR for the MAG data. Any idea why DSCOVR's RSTW (real time solar wind) data is so spotty right now? Did the CME affect it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozy Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 Bz steadily going down, nearing 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MatejGrek Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 10 hours ago, Tino Lehtonen said: I don't have access to a card reader now so I'll only show these poor quality monitor app screenshots for now. To my eye it seemed like the phenomena was part of the clouds and vanished as they passed the point where the light was. Is it possoble that something came all the way through to lower atmosphere? That's a light pillar! They are formed when light reflects off of tiny ice crystals in the atmosphere. They're usually seen at cirrus/cirrostratus clouds when sunlight or moonlight reflects, or at ground level during winter (diamond dust). Seeing them this high in clouds from an artificial light source is kind of rare. Great catch! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted March 25 Author Share Posted March 25 5 hours ago, Sam Warfel said: Any idea why DSCOVR's RSTW (real time solar wind) data is so spotty right now? Did the CME affect it? With the issued faraday cup, it seems like if the solar wind velocities or density gets too high, the satellite gives up. Maybe even if values are too low, it is pretty random. ............. Most of the flux rope might end within the next 6 hours, switching back to mainly enhanced solar wind values. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted March 25 Author Share Posted March 25 Welp, there goes the flux rope. Coronagraph imagery came in at a good time to get over 24 hours lead time to only be within 3 hours off the actual arrival. Bring on the next CME, Sun. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Landon Moeller Posted March 25 Popular Post Share Posted March 25 With the flux rope over with, here’s a summary of the sheath and core: https://ibb.co/ZfQDQC6 Simple Bt plot: https://ibb.co/0hy3sj4 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jamie McBean Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 6 minutes ago, Landon Moeller said: With the flux rope over with, here’s a summary of the sheath and core: https://ibb.co/ZfQDQC6 Simple Bt plot: https://ibb.co/0hy3sj4 Fantastic - is there anywhere where I can learn about these orientations? I've tried looking and a lot of it is long scientific papers that are a bit confusing for me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wolf star Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 I have to admit that yesterday before dark I had high expectations. And when Bz turned north with the setting sun yesterday, I went to sleep in protest! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nathan Majors Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 Sorry if this is off topic but if y’all celebrate the Holy Week up to Easter happy Holy Week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Pegasus51 Posted March 25 Popular Post Share Posted March 25 Okay, apologies for seeming to gush, but feel a need to comment on what was for me... a great learning experience. Been awhile since I've been an absolute newbie, so gotta say... This functional site structure, moderation, administration and member participation has been more exceptional than I've experienced in some long while AND... need to express sincere thanks! The degree of expertise, curiosity and willingness to share knowledgeable experience has been beyond any of my expectations. These last few days of group observation of the dance between 3614/3615 have driven that home for me. Still learning basics of a very big subject but you're making it easy and entirely enjoyable. best to all 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted March 25 Author Share Posted March 25 Now I know what it is like to run out of reactions for the first time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malisha Reuvekamp Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 (edited) Maybe someone knows the reason why Met Office just sent an alert about extending G3 possibility? I would love to know why (if so). I suppose it still has something to do with yesterday, but that is all I think to know. 😅 Technically I don't understand this situation though. Edited March 25 by Malisha Reuvekamp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MeteoLatvia Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 36 minutes ago, Malisha Reuvekamp said: Maybe someone knows the reason why Met Office just sent an alert about extending G3 possibility? I would love to know why (if so). I suppose it still has something to do with yesterday, but that is all I think to know. 😅 Technically I don't understand this situation though. I guess it is because of still fairly high solar wind speed, but even with that, we are not even reaching active conditions (KP3 now), but still I would not expect anything higher than G1 in best case scenario. Unfortunately we are out of flux rope as it was mentioned before, so IMF strenght is back to low levels and also it's orientation (Bz) is northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 57 minutes ago, Malisha Reuvekamp said: Maybe someone knows the reason why Met Office just sent an alert about extending G3 possibility? I would love to know why (if so). I suppose it still has something to do with yesterday, but that is all I think to know. 😅 Technically I don't understand this situation though. Noaa was a bit more in depth about it. Always remember who their "customers" are, pipeline and satellite aswell as power grid operators. they will go extra sure to send out warnings even if the possibility is low because its important for those in named fields It may be overcast and over the top for us as aurora fans or spaceweather nerds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malisha Reuvekamp Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 Thx both! I thought at first it might have something to do with 'only if bz might go southwards again' or something technical, like flux rope talk or different 'parts' of a cme. So nothing like that. I am sometimes having a hard time understanding some mechanisms, so every bit helps, thanks!😁 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christopher Shriver Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 22 hours ago, Philalethes said: Together DSCOVR and ACE make a total of one functioning satellite, heh. This is such a statement lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEAurora Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 (edited) On 3/24/2024 at 3:08 PM, Landon Moeller said: Bz should be moderately to strongly positive for the next 18-24 hours or more. Super short geomagnetic storm! Well, not thrilled that it turned out how it did. But kudos to a great forecast. I also appreciate all of the follow up info. Edited March 26 by NEAurora 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted March 26 Author Share Posted March 26 I guess however the flux rope works, we still seem to be within it with low solar wind temperatures and density Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tino Lehtonen Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 20 hours ago, MatejGrek said: That's a light pillar! They are formed when light reflects off of tiny ice crystals in the atmosphere. They're usually seen at cirrus/cirrostratus clouds when sunlight or moonlight reflects, or at ground level during winter (diamond dust). Seeing them this high in clouds from an artificial light source is kind of rare. Great catch! Very interesting, we see large "ground level" pillars all the time in the winter but i have indeed never seen one of this type. Typical observation for those is at the highway, you see them move behind the forests even before you see the light source, very strange when you think about it. There was a temporal link with this light pillar and aurora starting so i thought it had something to do with it. I do wonder what causes the ice crystals to all align so that the phenomena is possible. Here's a clip of that pillar and footage of Finnish weather any time when there's a noteworthy event in the sky. 😅 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanicaShardae201 Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 Hi folks, I saw a bunch of reporting yesterday (Monday 25th) around 12:00-14:00 UTC reporting SWPC's geomagnetic storm alert. Multiple places in the US were reporting that "people as far south as Alabama could see aurora overhead tonight". I was very confused because while the updates from midnight UTC were predicting strong aurora, that was all just finishing up by 12:00-14:00 yesterday when the US was reporting this at dawn. Am I missing something about SWPC's alert, or did multiple news outlets just report the previous night's (or current day's) storm as upcoming? https://www.earth.com/news/severe-solar-storm-will-generate-auroras-as-far-south-as-alabama/ https://www.dailycamera.com/2024/03/25/solar-flare-geomagnetic-storm-radio-aurora/?clearUserState=true Thanks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stock Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 On 3/22/2024 at 10:08 PM, MinYoongi said: Thank you for opening this topic. 🤓 I think it will be a glancing earth impact because a lot went north. And the Earth is far south in relation to the Solar Equator 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 33 minutes ago, stock said: And the Earth is far south in relation to the Solar Equator It's certainly about as far south as we get; the Solar axial tilt to the ecliptic isn't that large though, only 7.25°, but it certainly did play a role in more of the bulk missing us, even though we did actually end up taking a decent hit regardless from some component that got hurled our way. I should also mention that some of those dates, while quite close, are not quite correct, but the difference doesn't matter that much, I used to do a rough approximation like that myself until I checked the exact times. The correct ones would be Sep 8 for when we're furthest north of the Solar equator (i.e. when the Solar north pole is tilted towards us), and Jun 6 and Dec 7 for the dates we cross the Solar equator. As you can tell, we're just talking a few days of difference, so it's not exactly a big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted March 26 Author Share Posted March 26 8 hours ago, DanicaShardae201 said: Hi folks, I saw a bunch of reporting yesterday (Monday 25th) around 12:00-14:00 UTC reporting SWPC's geomagnetic storm alert. Multiple places in the US were reporting that "people as far south as Alabama could see aurora overhead tonight". I was very confused because while the updates from midnight UTC were predicting strong aurora, that was all just finishing up by 12:00-14:00 yesterday when the US was reporting this at dawn. Am I missing something about SWPC's alert, or did multiple news outlets just report the previous night's (or current day's) storm as upcoming? https://www.earth.com/news/severe-solar-storm-will-generate-auroras-as-far-south-as-alabama/ https://www.dailycamera.com/2024/03/25/solar-flare-geomagnetic-storm-radio-aurora/?clearUserState=true Thanks The sheath of the CME reached G4, and arrived earlier than the SWPC expected. When the flux rope arrived, the chances for strong geomagnetic activity went down as the Bz component held north. Keep in mind the "could" there. ........... Still looking at the solar wind and IMF, the flux rope might still be going. Or what remains of it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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