MinYoongi Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 14 minutes ago, Jamie McBean said: Good X/Twitter thread by the Austrian Space Weather Office who seem to be going for a 17 UTC arrival Altough important note : 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted March 24 Author Share Posted March 24 The EPAMp rise very well could be our heads up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 12 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: The EPAMp rise very well could be our heads up so you think 17UTC sounds plausible? I dont remember what time you calculated anymore, im quite forgetful! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tniickck Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 our calculations give 16 UTC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 1 minute ago, tniickck said: our calculations give 16 UTC May i ask how you calculated exactly? Im pretty unknowing when it comes to that and very interested in the different methods people on here use and how they differ with nasa, noaa, and other offices/models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted March 24 Author Share Posted March 24 1 minute ago, MinYoongi said: so you think 17UTC sounds plausible? I dont remember what time you calculated anymore, im quite forgetful! We'll see how the EPAM develops in the coming hour. It's good to see all the colors are getting back in their right order. I have a forecasted arrival time right around there as well. My forecast on here is the second half of the 24th, which seems like a reasonable way to forecast on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jamie McBean Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 Reading Uni's HUXt forecast seems to be the odd one out with an arrival time of 1936z tomorrow It normally seems like the most reliable one so the difference in forecast does make me wonder, presume it's a difference in analysed velocity? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 4 minutes ago, Jamie McBean said: Reading Uni's HUXt forecast seems to be the odd one out with an arrival time of 1936z tomorrow It normally seems like the most reliable one so the difference in forecast does make me wonder, presume it's a difference in analysed velocity? Altough I have heard of this Model before and saw some Forecasts, im unsure how many panned out. Maybe you can tell me more about that, or why you think its "normally the most reliable one" ? Thank you in advance And for your Question; Maybe there is a way to find out the different Parameters they put into their Model like Nasa-Donki. I think i can see two different runs there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 Weird how different people and institutions come with wildly different solutions for when this CME is going to arrive. The SIDC just posted an update which is more in line with our forecast. An arrival at 17 UTC today would be very very fast. Here is the SIDC update: Quote The halo CME reported yesterday as launched yesterday at 01:33 UTC arrived at the Solar Orbiter (SO) location yesterday at 13:00 UTC. Based on the SO in situ measurements a new estimation of its arrival time to the Earth's environment can be made. It is now expected to reach Earth at the second half of 25 Mar. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jamie McBean Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 1 minute ago, MinYoongi said: Altough I have heard of this Model before and saw some Forecasts, im unsure how many panned out. Maybe you can tell me more about that, or why you think its "normally the most reliable one" ? Thank you in advance And for your Question; Maybe there is a way to find out the different Parameters they put into their Model like Nasa-Donki. I think i can see two different runs there. HUXt uses UK Met Office estimates of CME properties as well as solar wind speed close to Sun and models them to try and predict the arrivals of any CMEs, etc. It's an ensemble forecast which just means it does a variety of different runs and just picks the median arrival time for its forecast. My assumption of 'normally the most reliable one' just stems off some of the runs that I've personally seen where it seems to have got them fairly accurate although the WSA-ENIL + CONE model by Nasa M2M seems to come fairly close too. I could easily be wrong with my assumptions as I've got no stats to back it up! https://research.reading.ac.uk/met-spate/huxt-forecast/ The link to the HUXt ensemble suite is here where it explains a bit more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 5 minutes ago, Marcel de Bont said: Weird how different people and institutions come with wildly different solutions for when this CME is going to arrive. The SIDC just posted an update which is more in line with our forecast. An arrival at 17 UTC today would be very very fast. Here is the SIDC update: What do you personally best believe in when it comes to arrival time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 Based on EPAM and the early arrival at Solar Orbiter I am starting to believe the CME can arrive earlier than the predicted second half of 25 March. Like I am starting to be convinced it will arrive earlier. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 4 minutes ago, Marcel de Bont said: Based on EPAM and the early arrival at Solar Orbiter I am starting to believe the CME can arrive earlier than the predicted second half of 25 March. Like I am starting to be convinced it will arrive earlier. Yes, def. Do you think around 17-18 UTC or more Noaa sided with a ~Midnight UTC arrival? (if i remember correct ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted March 24 Author Share Posted March 24 An L1 arrival looks emanant from EPAMp, though the CME hasn't arrived at SA yet though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MeteoLatvia Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 (edited) 6 minutes ago, Marcel de Bont said: Based on EPAM and the early arrival at Solar Orbiter I am starting to believe the CME can arrive earlier than the predicted second half of 25 March. Like I am starting to be convinced it will arrive earlier. Yup, the EPAM diagram starts to increase very rapidly. My guess is that that it will arrive in next 3-6 hours (17:00 - 20:00 UT) Edited March 24 by MeteoLatvia 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 Im just trying to orientate myself because there are so many different predictions that differ quite much. 1 minute ago, Jesterface23 said: An L1 arrival looks emanant from EPAMp, though the CME hasn't arrived at SA yet though. Just now, MeteoLatvia said: Yup, the EPAM diagram starts to increase very rapidly. My guess is that that it will arrive in next 6-8 hours (20:00 - 22:00 UT) As in how many hours? 6-8 like Meteo guessed or 2-3 like the Team around Christian Möstl? By the way, @MeteoLatvia i really appreciate you in this forum, youre relatively new but your comments and posts are always very interesting, easy to understand and informative 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dev3770 Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 The exponential growth of EPAM makes me think that the CME is knocking on the door already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 Based on EPAM and the recent observations from Solar Orbiter, I think the 17 UTC predicted arrival time for today might hold water! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 1 minute ago, Marcel de Bont said: Based on EPAM and the recent observations from Solar Orbiter, I think the 17 UTC predicted arrival time for today might hold water! Interesting. (sadly ran out of reactions again) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MeteoLatvia Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 3 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: Im just trying to orientate myself because there are so many different predictions that differ quite much. As in how many hours? 6-8 like Meteo guessed or 2-3 like the Team around Christian Möstl? By the way, @MeteoLatvia i really appreciate you in this forum, youre relatively new but your comments and posts are always very interesting, easy to understand and informative That was just my guess based on how exponentially it is starting to increase in past hour. Thank you so much! It's really heartwarming to hear good words. Yes, I'm relatively new to all this, and I hope my frequent posts are not too overwhelming as I like to discuss and in that way also learn something new from more experienced ones out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 I believe we might have arrival already, just now. At least the Bt just spiked by quite a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted March 24 Author Share Posted March 24 The CME has impacted DSCOVR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 1 minute ago, MeteoLatvia said: That was just my guess based on how exponentially it is starting to increase in past hour. Thank you so much! It's really heartwarming to hear good words. Yes, I'm relatively new to all this, and I hope my frequent posts are not too overwhelming as I like to discuss and in that way also learn something new from more experienced ones out here. Not overwhelming at all Im interested to see if the prediction works. The first forecast that was put in by M2M Office was for 17:55UTC -+7h. then another prediction by an unnamed office for 2024-03-24T16:09Z (-2.22h, +1.97h) another unnamed office, altough may be UoA 2024-03-24T08:59Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) NSSC even went with 2024-03-24T12:00Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tniickck Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 here it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 Speed and density too, by the looks of it. Seems like this might be it already indeed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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