Sam Warfel Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 Just now, Landon Moeller said: In that case, the only thing that could drive us to G3 is the shock Ah that's true, there could still be a bit of -Bz in the sheath I suppose Personally, I have a fair bit of confidence in Christian's ENW prediction, although it is certainly an emerging science. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
libmar96 Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 That's a good point. Not sure what's ENW, but right, if the third graph represents Bz, then the whole thing is done by By. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 (edited) 18 minutes ago, arjemma said: I can't figure out what graph is the Bz one though, is it the last one? What does Br stand for? I haven't noticed that before. @Philalethes do you know? It's RTN coordinates, where B_R is in the radial direction, same as Bx, but the two other directions are slightly different from By and Bz due to being aligned with the Solar spin axis; B_N is the normal direction, i.e. parallel to the spin axis, and B_T is the tangential direction, i.e. perpendicular to the spin axis. So roughly speaking B_T corresponds to By (but with positive and negative reversed) and B_N corresponds to Bz (not reversed). The last one is the total magnitude, i.e. the exact same as Bt. Converting from RTN to GSM isn't trivial due to how the GSM coordinate system fluctuates intradaily as the geomagnetic poles precede around the geographic poles, but in some of the posts by ASWO (Austrian Space Weather Office) on X they've converted between them. That being said, they're typically close enough that it's a decent approximation, although it should be noted that it's around this time of year that the difference would be the largest (determined by the P-angle, which also determines the maximum contribution of the R-M effect to geomagnetic activity). Edited March 23 by Philalethes typo 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 3 minutes ago, Sam Warfel said: Ah that's true, there could still be a bit of -Bz in the sheath I suppose Personally, I have a fair bit of confidence in Christian's ENW prediction, although it is certainly an emerging science. The data from Solar Orbiter appears to suggest confirmation of an ENW configuration. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arjemma Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 3 minutes ago, Philalethes said: It's RTN coordinates, where B_R is in the radial direction, same as Bx, but the two other directions are slightly different from By and Bz due to being aligned with the Solar spin axis; B_N is the normal direction, i.e. parallel to the spin axis, and B_T is the tangential direction, i.e. perpendicular to the spin axis. So roughly speaking B_T corresponds to By (but with positive and negative reversed) and B_N corresponds to Bz (not reversed). The last one is the total magnitude, i.e. the exact same as Bt. Converting from RTN to GSM isn't trivial due to how the GSM coordinate system fluctuates intradaily as the geomagnetic poles precedes around the geographic poles, but in some of the posts by ASWO (Austrian Space Weather Office) on X they've converted between them. That being said, they're typically close enough that it's a decent approximation, although it should be noted that it's around this time of year that the difference would be the largest (determined by the P-angle, which also determines the maximum contribution of the R-M effect to geomagnetic activity). Thank you so much @Philalethes and @Jesterface23! I have totally missed this information so I learnt a bunch of new things now and I love that. ❤️❤️ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted March 23 Author Share Posted March 23 One thing to note is the Solar orbiter is already around 6 degrees ahead of us. So what we see from there could be a bit more different than the last CME it was able to be compared to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arjemma Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 2 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: One thing to note is the Solar orbiter is already around 6 degrees ahead of us. So what we see from there could be a bit more different than the last CME it was able to be compared to. True, and I assume the CME will also expand a bit and maybe rotate a bit. I can't wait until it arrives at DSCOVR and ACE. I do hope DSCOVR stays active though so we can see the true density of the solar wind. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Landon Moeller Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 Confirmed: The flux rope is ENW, based on latest SolO data Real time data: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/a-z-research/space-and-atmospheric-physics/research/missions-and-projects/space-missions/solar-orbiter/updates/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 (edited) 11 minutes ago, Sam Warfel said: The data from Solar Orbiter appears to suggest confirmation of an ENW configuration. Yep, that's what it looks like; I wondered why the B_T was so consistently large at first, but now it's clearly moving diagonally. If I'm visualizing the rope somewhat correctly I also think the B_R direction means that SolO essentially passed through the rope on the left ("east") side of its core. Edited March 23 by Philalethes clarity 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedreamon Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 21 minutes ago, libmar96 said: NASA predictions also push the impact to tomorrow's afternoon. Later than mine, but hey, it's getting earlier! https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/CMEscoreboard/ Wow, that's a lot earlier than most predictions. I wonder if how the aurora will look, assuming the weather cooperates... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted March 23 Author Share Posted March 23 I just noticed the tweet from Solar Orbiter Mag. The satellite is 9 degrees off of the Earth-Sun line instead of 6 degrees. So we are in line for a slightly more direct impact from the CME as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isatsuki San Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 and and this is the epam right now, I will leave this small image so that you can see it, when it arrives Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted March 23 Author Share Posted March 23 ACE's EPAMp spike at around 21:30Z there is likely right around the time the satellite fully transitioned into the CH HSS. The data is starting to get a little glitchy again though as well it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
libmar96 Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 16 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: I just noticed the tweet from Solar Orbiter Mag. The satellite is 9 degrees off of the Earth-Sun line instead of 6 degrees. So we are in line for a slightly more direct impact from the CME as well. I used NASA JPL Horizons ephemeris to get the more precise elongation. For the last time it shown 3.3 degrees and today we have 9.2 degrees. It might be a bit even more off. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 (edited) 16 hours ago, Ester89 said: For the first time I ran out of reactions. I love reading that G4 will be possible! ❤️ I have to save them. I’m as impulsive as 3590 at times @Ester89 Edited March 23 by hamateur 1953 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LunarLights58 Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 What's up with the G2 right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted March 24 Author Share Posted March 24 3 minutes ago, LunarLights58 said: What's up with the G2 right now? Coronal hole ..................... Expecting the CME to arrive within the next 11 to 23 hours, if the IMF can stay elevated, we should be set for one pretty big IMF shock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted March 24 Author Share Posted March 24 ...And the elevated IMF went down the drain. Possibly the exit of the CIR 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
libmar96 Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 (edited) After the night ended in Europe, I woke up checking CME predictions on NASA Scoreboard and a few new predictions appeared. Worth noting one is almost as early as mine from SolO timings, suggesting a CME impact on DSCOVR as early as in 90-120 minutes. Edited March 24 by libmar96 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
libmar96 Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 (edited) One clarification worth mentioning. The CME hasn't arrived to DSCOVR yet (as of 7:47 UT). If we actually compare distances between moments from previous page (of the recent filament, not yesterday's CME), we'll find out that average speed between Sun-SolO was slower than between SolO-DSCOVR. So something is a bit off. If Sol-O and DSCOVR were both exactly in the center of line, the CME would impact Earth 102 minutes later (8:41 UT), keeping calculated 1323 km/s average speed. But we know it slows down with distance. This gives additional 30-60 minutes for that time, because the front of CME is not a smooth arc and DSCOVR will observe it earlier, so we can apply minus 20 to it. Edited March 24 by libmar96 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted March 24 Author Share Posted March 24 I just tried calculating an arrival time roughly based on Solar Orbiters data and it fell just before my official L1 arrival time prediction, a little bit past noon. ACE is still glitchy, but there should be a EPAMp steeper gradual rise prior to the CME arrival. If we are lucky, maybe we will get a 6 hour heads up. Now to get off and get some sleep in before whenever it arrives. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christopher Shriver Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 I must interject to mention the detection of a fast galactic transient, a source of X-rays that do not originate from our sun, by our slew of detectors over the past couple of weeks. We have regularly been seeing activity in our atmosphere and at our detectors, both ground-based and in various L-points, of "transient" flares that are reaching Earth. This is only notable for the sake of academics; it may not pertain to the "discussion in the room" but it also might, due to the recent and raw nature of the data and discovery of this incoming energy. https://gcn.nasa.gov/circulars Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MeteoLatvia Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 2 hours ago, Jesterface23 said: I just tried calculating an arrival time roughly based on Solar Orbiters data and it fell just before my official L1 arrival time prediction, a little bit past noon. ACE is still glitchy, but there should be a EPAMp steeper gradual rise prior to the CME arrival. If we are lucky, maybe we will get a 6 hour heads up. Now to get off and get some sleep in before whenever it arrives. Looks like something is definitely going on. The glitchy signal is now gone and now there is a steep rise in low-energy protons is starting. Need to wait some hours, but won't rule out that the CME is near. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dev3770 Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 EPAM rising big time. Could that be it already? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jamie McBean Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 Good X/Twitter thread by the Austrian Space Weather Office who seem to be going for a 17 UTC arrival Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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