SpaceWeather5464 Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 9 minutes ago, Misaka said: Astronauts are currently on their way to the ISS. What effects do they have, if any? Probably zero effects, 50 Mev (the hard protons) isn't high enough as of now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Landon Moeller Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 The halo CME just impacted Solar Orbiter a few hours ago with a shock strength of 120 nT. It is 9.5° west of the Sun-earth line at a distance of 0.39 AU from the sun 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 2 minutes ago, Landon Moeller said: The halo CME just impacted Solar Orbiter a few hours ago with a shock strength of 120 nT. It is 9.5° west of the Sun-earth line at a distance of 0.39 AU from the sun what does that mean? for earth? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 (edited) https://www.stce.be/content/sc25-tracking Hey @tniickck look at the particles if you haven’t yet. We may get a GLE out of this proton stream. Interesting. Mike. Edited March 23 by hamateur 1953 Added stce link which is tracking GLEs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Landon Moeller Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 1 minute ago, MinYoongi said: what does that mean? for earth? Following the timing, likely arrival near midnight on the 25th UTC. Following the inverse square law, probably a max B strength of 25-40 nT at Earth 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 1 minute ago, Landon Moeller said: Following the timing, likely arrival near midnight on the 25th UTC. Following the inverse square law, probably a max B strength of 25-40 nT at Earth Thank you. Im too stupid to calculate the Inverse square Law. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isatsuki San Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 50 minutes ago, Landon Moeller said: El halo CME acaba de impactar contra Solar Orbiter hace unas horas con una fuerza de choque de 120 nT . Está a 9,5° al oeste de la línea Sol-Tierra a una distancia de 0,39 AU del sol. wait.... does that mean it will arrive soon?... 55 minutes ago, Landon Moeller said: El halo CME acaba de impactar contra Solar Orbiter hace unas horas con una fuerza de choque de 120 nT . Está a 9,5° al oeste de la línea Sol-Tierra a una distancia de 0,39 AU del sol. Wait, does that mean it will arrive much sooner than expected? Or is it still until March 25? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Misaka Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 10 minutes ago, Isatsuki San said: wait.... does that mean it will arrive soon?... Wait, does that mean it will arrive much sooner than expected? Or is it still until March 25? i think still march 25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 Just saw the SolO updates myself, that's quite fast indeed. Here's the plot they posted: At a glance the flux rope doesn't seem like the best for geomagnetic activity, but at those strengths the sheath itself could potentially yield some. I also wonder how the B_T (roughly equivalent to By) is so consistently high, can't readily visualize how the flux rope is hitting to make that happen. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parabolic Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 22 minutes ago, Isatsuki San said: wait.... does that mean it will arrive soon?... Wait, does that mean it will arrive much sooner than expected? Or is it still until March 25? I'm seeing late 24th to early 25th This is going to be interesting with the CIR stream also being present. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
libmar96 Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 (edited) 1 hour ago, Landon Moeller said: The halo CME just impacted Solar Orbiter a few hours ago with a shock strength of 120 nT. It is 9.5° west of the Sun-earth line at a distance of 0.39 AU from the sun That looks quite extreme. Please verify my calculations below (and just in case, my timings as well). The recent predictions using Solar Orbiter were interestingly accurate, so I used the same thing to predict. The recent filament was noted to be erupted on 17th March 2024 around 02:00 UT. I used heloviewer.org images and I noted the movement of filament at 02:05 UT, so I'm keeping this date and time of eruption. Solar Orbiter detected a significant increase of IMF on 18th March 2024 at 16:57 UT. It is 38 hours and 52 minutes after the eruption (2332 mins). A similar increase was observed by DSCOVR on 21st March 2024 at 02:22 UT. It is 96 hours and 17 minutes after the eruption (5777 mins), almost exactly 4 days. The Solar Orbiter was at distance of 0.39 AU from the Sun. I'll try proportions there - dividing 2332 and 5777 gives a result of 0.4037, approximately the value of distance. The current distance of SolO is 0.38 AU. Approximately the same. At the same CME speed, it would reach maybe 30-60 minutes earlier I guess - not a significant value. That means I can try to divide the travel duration from Sun to Solar Orbiter of current CME and it would output a moment of reaching Earth. The peak of X-flare was on 23th March 2024 01:33 UT. The SolO detected CME on 23th March 2024 13:30 UT with flux rope on 15:10 UT later same day. This means it took only 11h 57m for the CME to reach Solar Orbiter at 0.39 AU? Dividing by 0.4037, I get the travel time of CME of 1776 minutes. 1 day, 5 hours and 36 minutes after X-class peak is tomorrow at 7:09 UT. For the flux rope, 11:17 UT (both 24th March). Am I wrong somewhere? That CME reached Solar Orbiter way too fast! That's G4 stuff coming tomorrow if you can confirm/verify this. That's way earlier than expected! Edited March 23 by libmar96 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tniickck Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 you didn't take into account that the sun slows down the ejection as it travels to Earth 12 minutes ago, libmar96 said: That looks quite extreme. Please verify my calculations below (and just in case, my timings as well). The recent predictions using Solar Orbiter were interestingly accurate, so I used the same thing to predict. The recent filament was noted to be erupted on 17th March 2024 around 02:00 UT. I used heloviewer.org images and I noted the movement of filament at 02:05 UT, so I'm keeping this date and time of eruption. Solar Orbiter detected a significant increase of IMF on 18th March 2024 at 16:57 UT. It is 38 hours and 52 minutes after the eruption (2332 mins). A similar increase was observed by DSCOVR on 21st March 2024 at 02:22 UT. It is 96 hours and 17 minutes after the eruption (5777 mins), almost exactly 4 days. The Solar Orbiter was at distance of 0.39 AU from the Sun. I'll try proportions there - dividing 2332 and 5777 gives a result of 0.4037, approximately the value of distance. The current distance of SolO is 0.38 AU. Approximately the same. At the same CME speed, it would reach maybe 30-60 minutes earlier I guess - not a significant value. That means I can try to divide the travel duration from Sun to Solar Orbiter of current CME and it would output a moment of reaching Earth. The peak of X-flare was on 23th March 2024 01:33 UT. The SolO detected CME on 23th March 2024 13:30 UT with flux rope on 15:10 UT later same day. This means it took only 11h 57m for the CME to reach Solar Orbiter at 0.39 AU? Dividing by 0.4037, I get the travel time of CME of 1776 minutes. 1 day, 5 hours and 36 minutes after X-class peak is tomorrow at 7:09 UT. For the flux rope, 11:17 UT (both 24th March). Am I wrong somewhere? That CME reached Solar Orbiter way too fast! That's G4 stuff coming tomorrow if you can confirm/verify this. That's way earlier than expected! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
libmar96 Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 (edited) 17 minutes ago, tniickck said: you didn't take into account that the sun slows down the ejection as it travels to Earth I would need this to be clarified. It certainly slows down, but we have certain moments of detections of SolO and DSCOVR. These actually contain slows down by definition. If it would slow down faster, DSCOVR would simply detect much later. So I'm using proportions of timings, not proportions of distances. Another thing is, if CME and a filament slow down differently. This is what I don't know. But I think it doesn't matter. More if we have a coronal hole or something, actually it's in our favor now. Edited March 23 by libmar96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Landon Moeller Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 35 minutes ago, Philalethes said: Just saw the SolO updates myself, that's quite fast indeed. Here's the plot they posted: At a glance the flux rope doesn't seem like the best for geomagnetic activity, but at those strengths the sheath itself could potentially yield some. I also wonder how the B_T (roughly equivalent to By) is so consistently high, can't readily visualize how the flux rope is hitting to make that happen. Some of the experts from ASWO have estimated, based on its source location, that it would be ENW flux rope. So far, the initial portion of the flux rope is verified. It is likely to rotate north yet, but won’t know until we see it in the SolO data Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted March 23 Author Share Posted March 23 (edited) The SWPC WSA-ENLIL model only has velocities of maybe 475km/s at arrival, so something seems to have broken there. Edited March 23 by Jesterface23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Landon Moeller Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 NOAA has just issued a G3 (KP = 7) Watch for the 25th: WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G3 Predicted Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day: Mar 24: G2 (Moderate) Mar 25: G3 (Strong) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 16 minutes ago, Landon Moeller said: NOAA has just issued a G3 (KP = 7) Watch for the 25th: WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G3 Predicted Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day: Mar 24: G2 (Moderate) Mar 25: G3 (Strong) Makes sense. Do you think G4 is probable like libmar said? i think the models look pretty accurate i dont think it reached sol-o too early? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peter Sedlák Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 Hoping for USA to get some aurora. Europe is busted. Bad timing and clouds over the entire continent. How classic.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arjemma Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 Finally the sun gives us some actions. It will be interesting how the solar wind data will evolve the coming couple of days since we have several things going on. I would estimate a hit late tomorrow UTC or early monday (march 25). I just love that the Solar Orbiter happens to be positioned almost in line with earth during an event like this. Very exciting indeed. There is somewhat live data from Solar Orbiter here: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/space-and-atmospheric-physics/research/missions-and-projects/space-missions/solar-orbiter/updates/ I can't figure out what graph is the Bz one though, is it the last one? What does Br stand for? I haven't noticed that before. @Philalethes do you know? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
libmar96 Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 NASA predictions also push the impact to tomorrow's afternoon. Later than mine, but hey, it's getting earlier! https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/CMEscoreboard/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted March 23 Author Share Posted March 23 5 minutes ago, arjemma said: I can't figure out what graph is the Bz one though, is it the last one? What does Br stand for? I haven't noticed that before. The Earth-Sun/Satellite-Sun line is Bx and Br. The difference is By and Bz, and Bt and Bn are rotated on that Bx/Br axis differently. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 If it's ENW, I feel like G3 is highly unlikely. What do you think @Landon Moeller? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Landon Moeller Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 2 minutes ago, Sam Warfel said: If it's ENW, I feel like G3 is highly unlikely. What do you think @Landon Moeller? In that case, the only thing that could drive us to G3 is the shock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arjemma Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 4 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: The Earth-Sun/Satellite-Sun line is Bx and Br. The difference is By and Bz, and Bt and Bn are rotated on that Bx/Br axis differently. Aah that makes sense, thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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