Philalethes Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 First LASCO imagery in already, definitely a big blast. Protons rising now too, right on schedule. Seems like ≥50 MeV and ≥100 MeV didn't move that much before going back down, but maybe that'll change depending on the trajectories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Adrian Kobyłecki Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Protons also grow rapidly so I expect SPE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Welp. It had one extreme CME as well, going about 15Rsun in a little under an hour. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herr Salz Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 damn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tniickck Posted February 9 Author Share Posted February 9 8 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: Welp. It had one extreme CME as well, going about 15Rsun in a little under an hour. How much is this in km/s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 2 minutes ago, tniickck said: How much is this in km/s? Around 2900km/s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 minute ago, tniickck said: How much is this in km/s? ~2900 km/s; gotta go fast! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tniickck Posted February 9 Author Share Posted February 9 3 minutes ago, Philalethes said: ~2900 km/s; gotta go fast! 3 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: Around 2900km/s omg! these speeds are extremely rare! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justanerd Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 NASA has already modeled the flare on ENLIL!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tniickck Posted February 9 Author Share Posted February 9 7 minutes ago, Justanerd said: NASA has already modeled the flare on ENLIL!? yep, but I guess it is too early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justanerd Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 2 minutes ago, tniickck said: yep, but I guess it is too early NASA is known for modeling the shockwave first - perhaps that is what this is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 2 minutes ago, Justanerd said: NASA is known for modeling the shockwave first - perhaps that is what this is so not earth directed? 6 minutes ago, tniickck said: yep, but I guess it is too early @Jesterface23 it does not look that fast on Nasa enlil, crazy. how do you calculate the speed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justanerd Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 minute ago, MinYoongi said: so not earth directed? @Jesterface23 it does not look that fast on Nasa enlil, crazy. how do you calculate the speed? Not on the current model - well south and west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Just now, Justanerd said: Not on the current model - well south and west does make sense with the origin and placement of the region. what do the others say? any chance of earth glance? I dont think so @Philalethes @Jesterface23 10 minutes ago, tniickck said: yep, but I guess it is too early why too early? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tniickck Posted February 9 Author Share Posted February 9 1 minute ago, MinYoongi said: does make sense with the origin and placement of the region. what do the others say? any chance of earth glance? I @Philalethes @Jesterface23 Because we dont have a normal coronograph imagery yet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Just now, tniickck said: Because we dont have a normal coronograph imagery yet uhm there is lasco imagery also, do you expect earth directedness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlainSki Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 x3.4! Was it on the limb or just beyond it? Wonder if the rating is fully representative if it was just beyond - that's one serious flare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tniickck Posted February 9 Author Share Posted February 9 1 minute ago, MinYoongi said: uhm there is lasco imagery also, do you expect earth directedness there is no cactus and lasco is cut as far as i know no, i do not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 minute ago, tniickck said: there is no cactus and lasco is cut as far as i know no, i do not lasco is updated for me on the SWPC website Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 (edited) 15 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: how do you calculate the speed? Personally I grab an image from LASCO and use an online measurement tool to see roughly how many Solar diameters it's traveled, like so: Then I note the launch time, which seems to have been ~13:05, which means 1 hour and 13 minutes has elapsed since then in the above image. Divide distance by speed, and voilà, a rough estimate. That comes out to ~2160 km/s now, so the first estimate of 2900 km/s was probably a bit over the top, I just used the given value of 15 Solar radii per hour for that. It's hard to tell exactly though, could be higher too, but it's almost certainly at least over 2000 km/s in any case. Edited February 9 by Philalethes grammar 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 (edited) 24 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: @Jesterface23 it does not look that fast on Nasa enlil, crazy. how do you calculate the speed? 15 Rsun in km is ~700km * 15. It traveled that distance in about 1 hour, so divide by 60 twice to get km/s. ................... There isn't really even a shock in coronagraph imagery to give us any chance at an arrival at L1. The CME looks fairly small, similar to the July 23rd, 2012 CME. Edited February 9 by Jesterface23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 minute ago, Jesterface23 said: There isn't really even a shock in coronagraph imagery to give us any chance at an arrival at L1. I thought so since the region rotated off 1-2 days ago. so the nasa enlil is true to trajectory? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Just now, MinYoongi said: I thought so since the region rotated off 1-2 days ago. so the nasa enlil is true to trajectory? This first run looks about right. Maybe a little more speed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 4 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: This first run looks about right. Maybe a little more speed donki says 2226.0 kms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 7 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: donki says 2226.0 kms I don’t know who or what donki is but that’s a fast cme! Up there with Aug 4 1972 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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