SpaceWeather5464 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Boom! M2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Adohran Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 28 minutes ago, SpaceWeather5464 said: Boom! M2 I'm pretty sure it will hit M3 as well. Just as I said, also 10cm Radio Burst 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 At this point it seems like a long duration event and it's still going up ............. We do have a nice shock starting to go across the solar disk as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jay-B Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 This is the first time I have witnessed the rising part of a flare be such a long duration! I've only seen them drop slowly before this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 16 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: At this point it seems like a long duration event and it's still going up ............. We do have a nice shock starting to go across the solar disk as well Main ejecta looks to go west though? Maybe a shock arrival? Only observed it in 195A but I’m glad I was able to catch it this time ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 1 minute ago, Jay-B said: This is the first time I have witnessed the rising part of a flare be such a long duration! I've only seen them drop slowly before this! It is pretty much a 3 step event. The first flare was a weaker long duration flare. That seemed to trigger a filament, then the filament seemed to trigger a double peaked long duration flare. 4 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: Main ejecta looks to go west though? Maybe a shock arrival? Only observed it in 195A but I’m glad I was able to catch it this time ! All we can do is wait. 3 different CMEs launched with the 3rd the one to watch. SA looks to be getting imagery, so we will see what it has in the coming hours 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 4 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: All we can do is wait. 3 different CMEs launched with the 3rd the one to watch. SA looks to be getting imagery, so we will see what it has in the coming hours But they all look extremely to the west to me. I don’t want to be the negative Nancy or anything, quite the opposite. Just trying to learn how to distinguish stuff and train the eye. I saw the shock wave you’re talking about, but given location and trajectory I think more than a shock arrival or glancing impact is unlikely ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 2 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: But they all look extremely to the west to me. I don’t want to be the negative Nancy or anything, quite the opposite. Just trying to learn how to distinguish stuff and train the eye. I saw the shock wave you’re talking about, but given location and trajectory I think more than a shock arrival or glancing impact is unlikely ? Likely a glancing blow from where it launched on the solar disk. The 3rd CME happened to launch from the east side of the region and it is possible some of it could of been redirected some by the other CMEs though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Just now, Jesterface23 said: Likely a glancing blow from where it launched on the solar disk. The 3rd CME happened to launch from the east side of the region and it is possible some of it could of been redirected some by the other CMEs though. Oh, I did not know about the redirection. But I noticed that it came from the eastern portion it’s nice to get some verification, thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cgrant26 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 (edited) Waiting to see this one on Lasco. Doesn't look Earth directed at this point though. Edited February 6 by cgrant26 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Just now, cgrant26 said: Waiting to see this one on Lasco Looks cool right ? I love 304A for limb eruptions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 13 minutes ago, cgrant26 said: Waiting to see this one on Lasco. Doesn't look Earth directed at this point though. That is the filament, CME 2/3 ........... The main 3rd CME is southward sort of as expected. Maybe we can get a glancing blow out of it so far from SA's COR imagery. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 4 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: That is the filament, CME 2/3 I hope @Chris_Wicklund has no problem with me sharing his tweet here, but there you can see the shockwave you meant. I already commented that i dont think it looks as good as the filament to the west etc so i dont know what to think. do you think there could be more than a glancing blow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tniickck Posted February 6 Author Share Posted February 6 and the sun wakes me up with plenty of notifications from swl that was a decent CME, but I wouldn't expect even a glancing blow, too southwestward 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jay-B Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 6 minutes ago, tniickck said: the sun wakes me up with plenty of notifications from sw Dobroe utro! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 17 minutes ago, tniickck said: I wouldn't expect even a glancing blow, too southwestward i agree but everyone else seems to disagree so im on my tip toes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 The filament eruption is going southwest. The flare CME is going about south-southwest with some type of halo in SA's imagery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 8 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: The filament eruption is going southwest. The flare CME is going about south-southwest with some type of halo in SA's imagery. oh, so a disappointment? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 1 minute ago, MinYoongi said: oh, so a disappointment? It is maybe the best it can be for the situation. We'll just need to see if L1 might get an arrival. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 15 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: It is maybe the best it can be for the situation. We'll just need to see if L1 might get an arrival. Oh, excuse my confusion. I thought you said its going south/west and theres no chance for an arrival. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 2 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: Oh, excuse my confusion. I thought you said its going south/west and theres no chance for an arrival. The filament CME going SW isn't too good. the SSW flare CME might have something. Just roughly going off of SA, the travel time might be around 60-78 hours. ............. And hopefully SOHO's imagery comes in and can see if the CME forecast worthy in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Adrian Kobyłecki Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Am I right in thinking that there will be a radiation storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tniickck Posted February 6 Author Share Posted February 6 21 minutes ago, Adrian Kobyłecki said: Am I right in thinking that there will be a radiation storm? not likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Adrian Kobyłecki Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Full halo with most of the plasma facing south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 The CME was launched eastward from it's source, but not northward. I'm expecting a glancing blow with an arrival at some point from noon on the 8th to early morning on the 9th. G1 may be possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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