Incoming Regions (de-commissioned)

[Sam Warfel]

4 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

Do you think some CME's are from incoming regions?  

 

btw: 

 

Looks hopeful 

[MinYoongi]

Just now, Orneno said:

Looks hopeful 

yeah im also seeing some loops on SDO, what do you think? And when can we see the sunspots circa?

and, are they active? (Cme vise)

[Landon Moeller]

3 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

yeah im also seeing some loops on SDO, what do you think? And when can we see the sunspots circa?

and, are they active? (Cme vise)

It looks like the region just behind the northeast limb put out an ejection yesterday just before 00z last night. As for SDO we will probably start seeing the regions far on the limb better by late tomorrow or Friday 

[MinYoongi]

2 hours ago, Landon Moeller said:

It looks like the region just behind the northeast limb put out an ejection yesterday just before 00z last night. As for SDO we will probably start seeing the regions far on the limb better by late tomorrow or Friday 

Thank you  

Question to everyone: Are the Gong Maps more unreliable than the Jsoc ones? I think they always look overtuned and dont match up with the jsoc ones often times.. 

[Bhavya]

is there a chance to see Aurora this weekend?

[Landon Moeller]

East limb is looking fun with big transequatorial magnetic loop connection from 3092 to a region just behind the limb north of the equator. Seems relatively quiet but potential for future activity is there

[MinYoongi]

1 hour ago, Landon Moeller said:

East limb is looking fun with big transequatorial magnetic loop connection from 3092 to a region just behind the limb north of the equator. Seems relatively quiet but potential for future activity is there

What is a "Transequitorial magnetic loop connection" ? 

Like, i know it means some magnetic loops of two AR's are connected but what exactly does that mean? Complex(er) regions? 

[Sam Warfel]

2 hours ago, Bhavya said:

is there a chance to see Aurora this weekend?

Only from high latitude areas. If unsure what that is, look it up in the help section of the SpaceWeatherLive menu

Edit: there’s a G2 watch for Sunday, if it was correct and a G2 happened that could bring it down to upper mid latitudes 

[Solarflaretracker200]

2 hours ago, Landon Moeller said:

East limb is looking fun with big transequatorial magnetic loop connection from 3092 to a region just behind the limb north of the equator. Seems relatively quiet but potential for future activity is there

Interesting, hopefully it does something. 

[MinYoongi]

Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for R1-R2
(Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts 02 Sep. R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio
blackout chances increase 03-04 Sep, with a slight chance for an R3
(Strong) event, with possible returning active regions.

 

@3gMike Which regions are about to return? And how can noaa say X chance without knowing the magnetic layout?

[3gMike]

8 hours ago, MinYoongi said:

Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for R1-R2
(Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts 02 Sep. R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio
blackout chances increase 03-04 Sep, with a slight chance for an R3
(Strong) event, with possible returning active regions.

 

@3gMike Which regions are about to return? And how can noaa say X chance without knowing the magnetic layout?

The regions most likely to return around 3-4 Sep would be AR3078 and AR3083. Neither is showing up on jsoc farside map at present. AR3078 was quite active last rotation, producing 8 Mflares. If it shows up it should be somewhere near latitude 24 south and Carr 34. AR3083 was fairly weak and I would be surprised if it returns.

I have not yet fathomed how NOAA make their predictions.

[MinYoongi]

 

Hi Guys, short question. How can 3088 disappear and reappear over the span of 12 hours? Its the same duty cycle so the images should not differ that much.. ? This is the Gong Farside map.

The calibrated Farside map (from gong too) makes no sense too. 

 

12 hours before : 

after:

 

According to JSOC farside imagery nothing much changed with 3088 in the same time period. i'd like to know more about those weird differences.

BTW: Idk how 3088 is doing but no high M/X /actually not higher than m1) class flares since the 31th of August measured with STIX. (rn in a good position to measure farside flares) 

[Landon Moeller]

11 hours ago, MinYoongi said:

 

Hi Guys, short question. How can 3088 disappear and reappear over the span of 12 hours? Its the same duty cycle so the images should not differ that much.. ? This is the Gong Farside map.

The calibrated Farside map (from gong too) makes no sense too. 

 

12 hours before : 

after:

 

According to JSOC farside imagery nothing much changed with 3088 in the same time period. i'd like to know more about those weird differences.

BTW: Idk how 3088 is doing but no high M/X /actually not higher than m1) class flares since the 31th of August measured with STIX. (rn in a good position to measure farside flares) 

That gong far side image of 09/03/22 00 UTC does not seem right. 3088 has been massive on every image from Stanford. And I also am not sure why 3088 is so quiet 

[MinYoongi]

40 minutes ago, Landon Moeller said:

That gong far side image of 09/03/22 00 UTC does not seem right. 3088 has been massive on every image from Stanford. And I also am not sure why 3088 is so quiet 

Is Solarorbiter still in a good position to measure 3088s flares? Do we see any CME's from it (that could be potentially from it i mean) in Lasco? 

 

pps: When will 3088 start to reappear?

Edited September 4, 2022 by MinYoongi

[3gMike]

37 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

: When will 3088 start to reappear?

AR3088 is not due to reappear until 12th or 13th September.

The large area currently shown as FS2022-005 on jsoc farside images may include the old AR3081, which could show up by the 6th. Of course that region may have re-arranged, so we could see a totally new spot.

[MinYoongi]

2 minutes ago, 3gMike said:

AR3088 is not due to reappear until 12th or 13th September.

The large area currently shown as FS2022-005 on jsoc farside images may include the old AR3081, which could show up by the 6th. Of course that region may have re-arranged, so we could see a totally new spot.

Yeah but i doubt it will be that big, the farside images are always to be taken with a huge chunk of salt. 

im just wondering about 3088. stix shows no major flaring (idk if its still in a position to pick up farside flares?) I think we see no big CMEs from farside? But its apparently still there and big. maybe losing complexity or anything 

[3gMike]

3 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

Yeah but i doubt it will be that big, the farside images are always to be taken with a huge chunk of salt. 

Agreed - The bulk of that area is likely a single large positive zone. We will know more in a couple of days.

Where do you pick up the STIX images?

[MinYoongi]

11 minutes ago, 3gMike said:

Agreed - The bulk of that area is likely a single large positive zone. We will know more in a couple of days.

Where do you pick up the STIX images?

can u elaborate about the positive zone etc?

no images, flare plots like goes 

[3gMike]

3 hours ago, MinYoongi said:

can u elaborate about the positive zone etc?

The attached link shows the incoming zone, with large positive zone shown in blue

https://gyazo.com/4bccdc167dc36c9c1480e978802c4c8a

[MinYoongi]

17 minutes ago, 3gMike said:

The attached link shows the incoming zone, with large positive zone shown in blue

https://gyazo.com/4bccdc167dc36c9c1480e978802c4c8a

but does that mean its a sunspot? and do you say its alpha class then?

[MinYoongi]

sorry for my confusion im just not familiar with those maps. can you maybe explain it like im a dummy?

[3gMike]

6 hours ago, MinYoongi said:

sorry for my confusion im just not familiar with those maps. can you maybe explain it like im a dummy?

Hi Min, What I meant was that although it looks like a large region, it may not be very active because there are only a couple of areas where groups of spots might form.

 

11 hours ago, MinYoongi said:

but does that mean its a sunspot? and do you say its alpha class then?

No, the map is just showing the magnetic fields. Spots will tend to form in the more intense magnetic fields, which are identified by the contour lines. If a spot did form in the positive region, with no corresponding spot in a nearby negative region that would be an Alpha spot.

[MinYoongi]

4 hours ago, 3gMike said:

Hi Min, What I meant was that although it looks like a large region, it may not be very active because there are only a couple of areas where groups of spots might form.

 

No, the map is just showing the magnetic fields. Spots will tend to form in the more intense magnetic fields, which are identified by the contour lines. If a spot did form in the positive region, with no corresponding spot in a nearby negative region that would be an Alpha spot.

But its not a new region. Its 3088 ? And it seems to be bigger but idk how accurate all the maps are. All i know is i dont see cme in lasco

[3gMike]

1 hour ago, MinYoongi said:

But its not a new region. Its 3088 ?

No it is definitely not AR3088. That is not due to reappear until 12th or 13th September.

[MinYoongi]

Just now, 3gMike said:

No it is definitely not AR3088. That is not due to reappear until 12th or 13th September.

Im talking about 3088 though. You can look at the movies and see it move. Maybe youre talking about another region, but i am talking about 3088 that im watching since it rotated off.

Number 007 on the Farside mappings is 3088. look at the movies, it rotates off the earthfacing disc and is 100% trackable since then. im not talking about 005