Boom! M2

28 minutes ago, SpaceWeather5464 said:

Boom! M2

I'm pretty sure it will hit M3 as well.

Just as I said, also 10cm Radio Burst

At this point it seems like a long duration event and it's still going up

.............

We do have a nice shock starting to go across the solar disk as well

This is the first time I have witnessed the rising part of a flare be such a long duration!  I've only seen them drop slowly before this!

16 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

At this point it seems like a long duration event and it's still going up

.............

We do have a nice shock starting to go across the solar disk as well

Main ejecta looks to go west though? Maybe a shock arrival? Only observed it in 195A but I’m glad I was able to catch it this time !  

1 minute ago, Jay-B said:

This is the first time I have witnessed the rising part of a flare be such a long duration!  I've only seen them drop slowly before this!

It is pretty much a 3 step event. The first flare was a weaker long duration flare. That seemed to trigger a filament, then the filament seemed to trigger a double peaked long duration flare.

4 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

Main ejecta looks to go west though? Maybe a shock arrival? Only observed it in 195A but I’m glad I was able to catch it this time !  

All we can do is wait. 3 different CMEs launched with the 3rd the one to watch. SA looks to be getting imagery, so we will see what it has in the coming hours

4 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

 

All we can do is wait. 3 different CMEs launched with the 3rd the one to watch. SA looks to be getting imagery, so we will see what it has in the coming hours

But they all look extremely to the west to me. I don’t want to be the negative Nancy or anything, quite the opposite. Just trying to learn how to distinguish stuff and train the eye. I saw the shock wave you’re talking about, but given location and trajectory I think more than a shock arrival or glancing impact is unlikely ?

2 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

But they all look extremely to the west to me. I don’t want to be the negative Nancy or anything, quite the opposite. Just trying to learn how to distinguish stuff and train the eye. I saw the shock wave you’re talking about, but given location and trajectory I think more than a shock arrival or glancing impact is unlikely ?

Likely a glancing blow from where it launched on the solar disk. The 3rd CME happened to launch from the east side of the region and it is possible some of it could of been redirected some by the other CMEs though.

Just now, Jesterface23 said:

Likely a glancing blow from where it launched on the solar disk. The 3rd CME happened to launch from the east side of the region and it is possible some of it could of been redirected some by the other CMEs though.

Oh, I did not know about the redirection. But I noticed that it came from the eastern portion  it’s nice to get some verification, thank you.

Waiting to see this one on Lasco. Doesn't look Earth directed at this point though.

 

Edited February 6, 20241 yr by cgrant26

Just now, cgrant26 said:

Waiting to see this one on Lasco

 

Looks cool right ? I love 304A for limb eruptions.

13 minutes ago, cgrant26 said:

Waiting to see this one on Lasco. Doesn't look Earth directed at this point though.

 

That is the filament, CME 2/3

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The main 3rd CME is southward sort of as expected. Maybe we can get a glancing blow out of it so far from SA's COR imagery.

4 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

That is the filament, CME 2/3

I hope @Chris_Wicklund has no problem with me sharing his tweet here, but there you can see the shockwave you meant. I already commented that i dont think it looks as good as the filament to the west etc so i dont know what to think. do you think there could be more than a glancing blow?

 and the sun wakes me up with plenty of notifications from swl

that was a decent CME, but I wouldn't expect even a glancing blow, too southwestward

6 minutes ago, tniickck said:

the sun wakes me up with plenty of notifications from sw

Dobroe utro!

17 minutes ago, tniickck said:

I wouldn't expect even a glancing blow, too southwestward

i agree but everyone else seems to disagree so im on my tip toes  

The filament eruption is going southwest. The flare CME is going about south-southwest with some type of halo in SA's imagery.

8 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

The filament eruption is going southwest. The flare CME is going about south-southwest with some type of halo in SA's imagery.

oh, so a disappointment?

1 minute ago, MinYoongi said:

oh, so a disappointment?

It is maybe the best it can be for the situation. We'll just need to see if L1 might get an arrival.

15 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

It is maybe the best it can be for the situation. We'll just need to see if L1 might get an arrival.

Oh, excuse my confusion. I thought you said its going south/west and theres no chance for an arrival.

2 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

Oh, excuse my confusion. I thought you said its going south/west and theres no chance for an arrival.

The filament CME going SW isn't too good. the SSW flare CME might have something. Just roughly going off of SA, the travel time might be around 60-78 hours.

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And hopefully SOHO's imagery comes in and can see if the CME forecast worthy in the morning.

Am I right in thinking that there will be a radiation storm?

21 minutes ago, Adrian Kobyłecki said:

Am I right in thinking that there will be a radiation storm?

not likely

Full halo with most of the plasma facing south

The CME was launched eastward from it's source, but not northward. I'm expecting a glancing blow with an arrival at some point from noon on the 8th to early morning on the 9th. G1 may be possible.