Multiple CMEs Inbound- G1 to G3 storming expected

[hamateur 1953]

On 8/16/2022 at 4:22 PM, MinYoongi said:

Thank you! 

Do you think some will miss? Im optimistic they wont!  

well. heck. I actually watched it whack us about six hours ago.  took off in anticipation with the bz still north.  get back home only to see a -74 bz.  guess Im stuck in fantasy land here in the state of Washington. 🤣

[MinYoongi]

25 minutes ago, hamateur 1953 said:

well. heck. I actually watched it whack us about six hours ago.  took off in anticipation with the bz still north.  get back home only to see a -74 bz.  guess Im stuck in fantasy land here in the state of Washington. 🤣

-74 bz ? There was not a single point where the bz was -74. Are you talking about the dst?

[hamateur 1953]

 was an error on my part. you caught it.  Actually wasn’t reading the correct line. we were really only slightly negative at -4.

3 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

-74 bz ? There was not a single point where the bz was -74. Are you talking about the dst?

[MinYoongi]

28 minutes ago, hamateur 1953 said:

 was an error on my part. you caught it.  Actually wasn’t reading the correct line. we were really only slightly negative at -4.

Haha, no Problem! I was just waking up, reading my notifications and then i was like : 

[Philalethes]

Me waking up today and checking the space weather.

In all seriousness, what exactly has happened here? Where did those CMEs go? Was the major spike and subsequent equally rapid dying down both the presumed M5 cannibal CME from Tuesday and the CH HSS hitting at the same time?

[Newbie]

24 minutes ago, Philalethes Bythos said:

Me waking up today and checking the space weather.

In all seriousness, what exactly has happened here? Where did those CMEs go? Was the major spike and subsequent equally rapid dying down both the presumed M5 cannibal CME from Tuesday and the CH HSS hitting at the same time?

This from SWPC

Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels before eventually reaching G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storming levels. .Forecast... Persistent negative polarity CH HSS influences, combined with continuing effects from the 14-15 Aug CMEs, are expected to keep the geomagnetic field at G1-G2 (Minor-Major) storm levels on 18 Aug. G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storm levels are also likely on 18 Aug as additional CMEs are forecast to arrive at Earth. On 19 Aug, G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm conditions will likely persist as the 16 Aug CMEs could impact Earth. By 20 Aug, again, barring any additional CME arrivals, the geomagnetic field should begin to settle back to mostly unsettled to active levels as CH HSS and CME influences decrease.

N.

This from Solen

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

August 15: A partial halo CME was observed after the long duration C3 event in AR 13074 early in the day.
August 16: No well defined CME was observed after the M5 major flare in AR 13078, however, there is chance CME effects will reach Earth on August 18 or 19.
August 17: A faint full halo CME was observed after the M1.0 long duration event in AR 13078 peaking at 14:52 UT. The CME could reach Earth on August 20.

N.

[Philalethes]

1 hour ago, Newbie said:

This from SWPC

Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels before eventually reaching G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storming levels. .Forecast... Persistent negative polarity CH HSS influences, combined with continuing effects from the 14-15 Aug CMEs, are expected to keep the geomagnetic field at G1-G2 (Minor-Major) storm levels on 18 Aug. G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storm levels are also likely on 18 Aug as additional CMEs are forecast to arrive at Earth. On 19 Aug, G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm conditions will likely persist as the 16 Aug CMEs could impact Earth. By 20 Aug, again, barring any additional CME arrivals, the geomagnetic field should begin to settle back to mostly unsettled to active levels as CH HSS and CME influences decrease.

N.

By the sound of that, it seems like they are suggesting that what we saw yesterday was either caused by the HSS alone or in combination with some weaker CMEs from Aug 13 or 14; if that's true, we should be in for some rather spectacular space weather, unless those remaining CMEs won't be hitting as well as predicted. I guess we'll have to play the waiting game and see.

PS: Looks like the Bz just flipped south again.

Edited August 18, 2022 by Philalethes Bythos

[mozy]

4 minutes ago, Philalethes Bythos said:

PS: Looks like the Bz just flipped south again.

Right back up again 😝

[Philalethes]

6 minutes ago, mozy said:

Right back up again 😝

And down again; seems like something is going on, but nothing to get too giddy about just yet, I suppose.

[Newbie]

1 hour ago, Philalethes Bythos said:

By the sound of that, it seems like they are suggesting that what we saw yesterday was either caused by the HSS alone or in combination with some weaker CMEs from Aug 13 or 14; if that's true, we should either be in for some rather spectacular space weather, unless those remaining CMEs won't be hitting as well as predicted. I guess we'll have to play the waiting game.

PS: Looks like the Bz just flipped south again.

One common piece of important information in reference to Aurorae/s is Hemispheric Power. This information is a good indicator of how much auroral activity can be expected. H.P. is an estimate of how much particle energy deposition takes place into earth’s upper atmosphere. Charged particles in the solar wind, ie. plasma: electrons and ions enter the Earth's atmosphere, collide with Earth's atmospheric molecules, there by slowing down and transferring the kinetic energy into light energy. The total particle energy deposited for each hemisphere is estimated in Gigawatts (GW). The higher the number, the  better the Aurorae/s in terms of active motion and intensity.

NOAA SWPC uses a method listed in the OVATION prime model, based on a formula that considers seasonal variations and different types of aurorae/s, particle sensor data from DMSP satellites (there are up to four primary operational DMSP satellites which are in sun-synchronous low-earth polar orbits at ~ 450 nautical miles) and solar wind data from DSCOVR which sits at the L1 Lagrange point. It's an early warning if you like of what can be expected in the hours to come.

N.

 

[Philalethes]

16 minutes ago, Newbie said:

One common piece of important information in reference to Aurorae/s is Hemispheric Power. This information is a good indicator of how much auroral activity can be expected. H.P. is an estimate of how much particle energy deposition takes place into earth’s upper atmosphere. Charged particles in the solar wind, ie. plasma: electrons and ions enter the Earth's atmosphere, collide with Earth's atmospheric molecules, there by slowing down and transferring the kinetic energy into light energy. The total particle energy deposited for each hemisphere is estimated in Gigawatts (GW). The higher the number, the  better the Aurorae/s in terms of active motion and intensity.

NOAA SWPC uses a method listed in the OVATION prime model, based on a formula that considers seasonal variations and different types of aurorae/s, particle sensor data from DMSP satellites (there are up to four primary operational DMSP satellites which are in sun-synchronous low-earth polar orbits at ~ 450 nautical miles) and solar wind data from DSCOVR which sits at the L1 Lagrange point. It's an early warning if you like of what can be expected in the hours to come.

N.

 

Yes, the massive spike and subsequent dying down in the HP was primarily what I was referring to; someone else also mentioned earlier that this was somewhat unusual, and I can't recall having seen it to that extent myself, but then again I only started paying attention to space weather after the peak of the last cycle, which itself was rather weak. Good explanation of what precisely it refers to as well, I'm sure there are people both lurking and posting who enjoy learning about that process in more detail.

And yes, the system NOAA has put together is quite impressive, but it usually takes a bit of digging to try to piece together exactly what sequence of events has led to the observed values. That's more or less what I was trying to do, i.e. figure out what exactly caused the spike, e.g. whether it was just a large part of the CH HSS or whether it was in combination with either some of the smaller CMEs from the earliest days of the current activity or from some of the later larger ones that could have arrived if they were sufficiently fast, and thus try to predict what we can possibly expect to see under the different assumptions, and finally compare that prediction to the observed data. Well, that's a rather long-winded way to describe the scientific process, I suppose.

[Newbie]

1 hour ago, Philalethes Bythos said:

Yes, the massive spike and subsequent dying down in the HP was primarily what I was referring to; someone else also mentioned earlier that this was somewhat unusual, and I can't recall having seen it to that extent myself, but then again I only started paying attention to space weather after the peak of the last cycle, which itself was rather weak. Good explanation of what precisely it refers to as well, I'm sure there are people both lurking and posting who enjoy learning about that process in more detail.

And yes, the system NOAA has put together is quite impressive, but it usually takes a bit of digging to try to piece together exactly what sequence of events has led to the observed values. That's more or less what I was trying to do, i.e. figure out what exactly caused the spike, e.g. whether it was just a large part of the CH HSS or whether it was in combination with either some of the smaller CMEs from the earliest days of the current activity or from some of the later larger ones that could have arrived if they were sufficiently fast, and thus try to predict what we can possibly expect to see under the different assumptions, and finally compare that prediction to the observed data. Well, that's a rather long-winded way to describe the scientific process, I suppose.

I guess the difficulty is when you have a quicker CME overtaking a slower CME plus CH influences all coming into play it becomes difficult to tease out exactly what is occurring in terms of individual events. I believe the scientific word is 'mishmash' lol I'm joking about the science part!

N. 

[Flareguy18]

I noticed a slow trend towards neutral/negative in the Bz after 01 UTC, and I had a hunch it would flip negative at some point. It finally did a few hours later. I headed out just before local midnight to wait for the aurora. There was a fairly decent southward Bz period which brought the HP up somewhat. I got really excited, but sadly the Bz just couldn't stay south long enough to get things going for mid latitudes.

All in all, a very disappointing night, but at least the skies were gorgeous, and I got to see a few meteors  

[Philalethes]

1 minute ago, Flareguy18 said:

All in all, a very disappointing night, but at least the skies were gorgeous, and I got to see a few meteors  

Nice, the Perseids? I was out watching those myself a couple of nights in a row between Aug 11-13 when they were peaking, clear skies most of the night, saw some some great streaks even though the full moon was probably drowning out many of the fainter ones. Cool configuration of Mars, Jupiter, and Saturn too, pretty good nights for skywatching.

[Solarflaretracker200]

Perseids Is my favorite meteor shower. 

[Bobofango]

4 hours ago, Philalethes Bythos said:

By the sound of that, it seems like they are suggesting that what we saw yesterday was either caused by the HSS alone or in combination with some weaker CMEs from Aug 13 or 14; if that's true, we should be in for some rather spectacular space weather, unless those remaining CMEs won't be hitting as well as predicted. I guess we'll have to play the waiting game and see.

PS: Looks like the Bz just flipped south again.

Yeah, I think this is probably true. The CMEs may have contributed to the initial 16nT IMF strength of the CHS, and I don't think there are any additional CMEs still waiting to impact. I think that's it. The bulk of the CMEs probably just missed us, getting "pushed" (for lack of a better term) more southward with each succession of newer CMEs.

I'll probably be more skeptical of these "Cannibal CME" events in the future, since we have further precedence for them now.

Edited August 18, 2022 by Bobofango

[LunarLights58]

Yes, thank you solar wind for only having a south Bz during the day here....

[Bobofango]

16 minutes ago, LunarLights58 said:

Yes, thank you solar wind for only having a south Bz during the day here....

I'd be more upset if the IMF strength was still hovering around 15nT, but it's dropped down to like under 9nT now so it's kind of "meh" to me. Doesn't seem like there is enough strength here for a G2. 

 

I remember during that one St. Patrick's Day storm in 2015, it reached G3 during the day LMAO. 

Edited August 18, 2022 by Bobofango

[Flareguy18]

1 hour ago, Philalethes Bythos said:

Nice, the Perseids? I was out watching those myself a couple of nights in a row between Aug 11-13 when they were peaking, clear skies most of the night, saw some some great streaks even though the full moon was probably drowning out many of the fainter ones. Cool configuration of Mars, Jupiter, and Saturn too, pretty good nights for skywatching.

Yep, the ones I saw were Perseids. The shower is past its peak, but we still have some residual ones flying.

[MinYoongi]

Hey Guys! I wanted to ask if some of the CME's are late or missed? And what to eventually expect for today?

and if theyre rather late than missed, will that make impact less impactful? I iwsh everyone happy hunt  !

[AurorahunterPA]

2 hours ago, MinYoongi said:

Hey Guys! I wanted to ask if some of the CME's are late or missed? And what to eventually expect for today?

and if theyre rather late than missed, will that make impact less impactful? I iwsh everyone happy hunt  !

I think the speed of the impacts is confirmed through research to be directly tied in with the intensity of the geomagnetic storm. So if they're slow and late, may not pack as much of a punch. Anyone please feel free to correct me if I'm misunderstanding or elaborate.  If I recall correctly, I think some were supposed to hit today so they wouldn't be late I don't think. 

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2001GL013597

Edited August 18, 2022 by AurorahunterPA

[MinYoongi]

23 minutes ago, AurorahunterPA said:

I think the speed of the impacts is confirmed through research to be directly tied in with the intensity of the geomagnetic storm. So if they're slow and late, may not pack as much of a punch. Anyone please feel free to correct me if I'm misunderstanding or elaborate.  If I recall correctly, I think some were supposed to hit today so they wouldn't be late I don't think. 

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2001GL013597

Youre absolutely right, if theyre early they most likely to cause more of a rucus.  

 

I'm basically just asking what to expect today and if some missed. Cant keep up with all those launched solar storms and their possible arrival times.

[Vancanneyt Sander]

21 minuten geleden, MinYoongi zei:

Cant keep up with all those launched solar storms and their possible arrival times.

It will get worse around solar max 😂 these where just from just M-class flares, wait till there’s an episode of multiple X-class flares with long duration events, those are more worth it 😎

[MinYoongi]

14 minutes ago, Vancanneyt Sander said:

It will get worse around solar max 😂 these where just from just M-class flares, wait till there’s an episode of multiple X-class flares with long duration events, those are more worth it 😎

ratatatata 

[RajSim]

Given the successive flares and fact that most of eastern seaboard of North America was under cloud cover, took a leap of faith and flew to Alberta which had clear skies forecast. Last night was a disappointment although camera picked up the green and pink colors. Hoping for some spectacle - at least G2 tonite at Jasper. Unfortunately, the cell signal is non-existent at Maligne park. So, can’t track the dashboards. Wondering what else can I do to know the latest other than to stay awake whole night.