Multiple CMEs Inbound- G1 to G3 storming expected

[mozy]

Another really minor impact 😆

[WildWill]

13 hours ago, Jesterface23 said:

See if we can get a decent flux rope at least.

I'll have that - and throw in some serious reconnection action on the side!

The 10 day forecast is clouds and rain - every day for the next 10 days, with a possible tropical storm thrown in (60%). Thanks to the sun the water temperature in the Gulf of Mexico is about 87*F, it'll make for a monster storm, if we have one.
 

I wonder, as my mind wanders, what correlations exist between the solar cycle and the various hurricane cycles and southern oscillation (El Nino), if any.  

Thanks!

WnA

 

[Jesterface23]

Hmm, either this is the second of the 2 CMEs that launched together on the 17th or we ended up getting an edge of a direct hit of the 18th CME. A bit odd of an IMF shock.

[Philalethes]

1 hour ago, WildWill said:

I wonder, as my mind wanders, what correlations exist between the solar cycle and the various hurricane cycles and southern oscillation (El Nino), if any.

Some studies have published findings that indicate that there is some association between the two; a quick search yielded e.g. this.

Quote

Plain Language Summary

Sun spot activity is known to exhibit increase and decrease in a regular cycle that lasts about 11 years. This 11-year solar cycle modulates the amount of solar radiation emitted by the Sun and received by the earth's climate system. In this study, we show that this solar cycle can induce a ∼0.2°C sea surface temperature (SST) variation in the Northeastern Pacific. Statistical analyses are performed to show that the influence of the solar cycle is first amplified in the lower stratosphere and then descends to influence the strength of the Hadley circulation in the troposphere. The change in the Hadley circulation then results in the SST footprint in the Northeastern Pacific via surface heat fluxes. The SST variations can then extend into the tropical Pacific to modulate the occurrence frequencies of a particular type of El Niño and La Niña event in the central Pacific (CP). It is found that more CP El Niño events occur during the active phase of the solar cycle, while more CP La Niña events occur during the inactive phase.

Probably deserving of its own topic, though.

[Bry]

2 hours ago, WildWill said:

I wonder, as my mind wanders, what correlations exist between the solar cycle and the various hurricane cycles and southern oscillation (El Nino), if any.  

Great question! Hurricanes on earth seem akin to hurricanes one the sun, but maybe instead of enjoying a geomagnetic storm as lovely auroras people at these latitudes might experience destructive hurricanes!

 

Correlation between tropical cyclones and magnetic storms during cycle 23 of solar activity

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1134/S0016793207030140

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/97JD00146

Really cool link above with awesome diagrams about electromagnetohydrodynamics from topical cyclones, hurricanes, and tornadoes. Magnetic field induced from rotating wind vortices and separation of charged particles

I think due to the earths 23.5 degree tilt we tend to get our largest storms (hurricanes) at latitudes of greatest insolation and potential energy changes in the late summer/fall. Hurricanes even have an eye made from oppositely spinning winds I think of as akin to sunspot polarity and potential energy differences.

Likewise on the sun, which has a 60 degree tilt, the largest solar storms occur near the solar equator during solar max. Sunspots are even called “Solar Hurricanes” on this informative link:

https://physics.catholic.edu/faculty-and-research/space-weather-lab/_media/docs/lecture-2.pdf

...and there are even “space hurricanes” when conditions are quiet enough to not have shear solar wind disrupt the aurora from a hurricane like formation of sun plasma on earths poles!

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_hurricane

La Nina periods favors hurricane formation in the Atlantic, while El Niño periods favor hurricanes in the pacific due to less wind shear when ocean warms up.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/impacts-el-niño-and-la-niña-hurricane-season

heres research correlating the solar cycle with El Niño/la Nina cycles

Review:

https://www.meteorologicaltechnologyinternational.com/news/solar-variability-linked-to-el-nino-and-la-nina-events.html

main article:

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2020EA001223

I think we should be switching from La Niña conditions to El Niño according to:

https://weatherwest.com/archives/16626

Nevermind what China’s doing to make it rain right now using cloud seeding.. im sure they are not the only ones.

https://futurism.com/china-rods-sky-rain-drought?amp

https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2022/aug/18/china-deploys-cloud-seeding-planes-and-cuts-electricity-use-as-record-heatwave-takes-toll

Great to enjoy some type of change in weather with all this (geomagnetic) storming going on! Very excited for some rain! And really wish to see the aurora sometime this solar max at 37lat without it causing havoc for everyone else!

Sorry if this seems off topic, geomagnetic storms seem to manifest differently in different parts of the globe, not just as auroras at northern latitudes!

Edit add on: 

It also seems the space between our “weather” on earth and and ionosphere are shrinking too, with the warming troposphere compressing layers above..

Even the normal national weather service branch issued a geomagnetic storming warning when we had a rare lightning event during that time:

 

Edited August 20, 2022 by Bry

[Sam Warfel]

@Bry Please move that to a new topic in the “unproven theories” forum. 

[RajSim]

How optimistic are you folks of a G1 / Kp5 potential tonight (Sun night/ Mon am) as predicted by NOAA. Wondering after a disappointing trip (from Aurora perspective) to the Canadian Rockies, it is worth the shot to drive up to North of Maine. Guess, am looking for something out of this one week of flares & CME  . Hard to give up!

[Drax Spacex]

11 hours ago, RajSim said:

How optimistic are you folks of a G1 / Kp5 potential tonight (Sun night/ Mon am) as predicted by NOAA. Wondering after a disappointing trip (from Aurora perspective) to the Canadian Rockies, it is worth the shot to drive up to North of Maine. Guess, am looking for something out of this one week of flares & CME  . Hard to give up!

Given the lack of response, I doubt that anyone (including me) wants to go out on a limb and make a recommendation whether you should spend the time and gas to drive out tonight for a better vantage point for possible aurora.

There were a flurry of CMEs throughout the day (in UTC) on August 19.  They would be south and west of Earth, glancing blows at best.  Assuming a 3 day travel time, they would be arriving any time from now and possibly through the night.  WSA-Enlil modeling predicts something arriving at 2022-08-22 0100 UTC... which would be now.

If it were me, wouldn't bother driving anywhere tonight and would instead kick back on the back porch with a cocktail, looking to the northern horizon, just in case, until I start to nod off.

Edited August 22, 2022 by Drax Spacex
typo

[shemadebeans]

omg are we going to die

[MinYoongi]

No, the CME's impact are already over... and no, no CME will kill us

[Newbie]

30 minutes ago, shemadebeans said:

omg are we going to die

Are you being serious Shemadebeans? Just asking!

Chill and read through the posts on the forum about how others overcame their anxiety towards solar activity. Nothing has changed, the advice is still good.

N. 

 

[shemadebeans]

52 minutes ago, Newbie said:

Are you being serious Shemadebeans? Just asking!

Chill and read through the posts on the forum about how others overcame their anxiety towards solar activity. Nothing has changed, the advice is still good.

N. 

 

i am not being serious. however, who wouldnt be a little unsettled about this sort of thing? is there truly anything that can be done about another carrington event? from what i hear, it would be catastrophic and take years, even decades, to recover. 

[Newbie]

40 minutes ago, shemadebeans said:

i am not being serious. however, who wouldnt be a little unsettled about this sort of thing? is there truly anything that can be done about another carrington event? from what i hear, it would be catastrophic and take years, even decades, to recover. 

Fair enough The solar activity would have to ramp up big time before anything remotely near a Carrington event took place though. We've survived big X flares in recent years. If infrastructure were to take a Carrington type hit it may take years to rebuild or rectify. It has already been covered in other threads here. Those who are affected by such events will need to have contingencies in place to mitigate impacts.

Bottom line there is no need to worry unduly. 

N.

[shemadebeans]

14 hours ago, Newbie said:

Fair enough The solar activity would have to ramp up big time before anything remotely near a Carrington event took place though. We've survived big X flares in recent years. If infrastructure were to take a Carrington type hit it may take years to rebuild or rectify. It has already been covered in other threads here. Those who are affected by such events will need to have contingencies in place to mitigate impacts.

Bottom line there is no need to worry unduly. 

N.

maybe ive been watching too much youtube then

[Sam Warfel]

13 minutes ago, shemadebeans said:

maybe ive been watching too much youtube then

That is highly likely. There is a lot of unreliable content on there that greatly exaggerates or completely fabricates dangers to get more views, because sensationalism and fear are some of the most effective ways to grab people’s attention. 

[shemadebeans]

51 minutes ago, Orneno said:

That is highly likely. There is a lot of unreliable content on there that greatly exaggerates or completely fabricates dangers to get more views, because sensationalism and fear are some of the most effective ways to grab people’s attention. 

yeah i see alot of videos such as this: 

what would you make of this?

[WildWill]

51 minutes ago, Orneno said:

That is highly likely. There is a lot of unreliable content on there that greatly exaggerates or completely fabricates dangers to get more views, because sensationalism and fear are some of the most effective ways to grab people’s attention. 

Perhaps there should be a “Carrington event gonna kill us all!!” forum,, could even pin a couple of posts that are a bit more realistic about the effects of such an event happening today. 
 

LnA

[MinYoongi]

37 minutes ago, shemadebeans said:

yeah i see alot of videos such as this: 

what would you make of this?

thats not even fearmongering or pseudoscience, thats spiritual bs

[WildWill]

1 hour ago, shemadebeans said:

yeah i see alot of videos such as this: 

what would you make of this?

This guy is either a total idiot or a scammer (in my opinion).  I bet on another video, we can buy a "Solar Flare Energy and Vibration Kit", limit 2 per person!  Get it while supplies  last.

I would quote a great American here:

"Just what kinda guru are you anyway?

"Look here brother, who you jiving' wit t'at Cosmic Debris?"  And...

"You can make more money as a butcher, so don't you waste your time on me!" 
       Frank Zappa, "Cosmic Debris" from Apostrophe.

Don't get me wrong, it is very funny. The guy doesn't even say anything, I was waiting for him to say something tangible, nothing there. Somehow, I made it through the whole 35s...  it have me a good laugh trying to figure the angle.

The comments, now that's where it gets really funny! I sprayed fruit loops and milk all over my table... so if ya need a good laugh, check it out! 
 

LmA

 

it is a bit off topic, I won't cry if y'all delete this and the others along these lines...  or perhaps unproved theories!

 

Edited August 27, 2022 by WildWill

[shemadebeans]

1 hour ago, WildWill said:

This guy is either a total idiot or a scammer (in my opinion).  I bet on another video, we can buy a "Solar Flare Energy and Vibration Kit", limit 2 per person!  Get it while supplies  last.

I would quote a great American here:

"Just what kinda guru are you anyway?

"Look here brother, who you jiving' wit t'at Cosmic Debris?"  And...

"You can make more money as a butcher, so don't you waste your time on me!" 
       Frank Zappa, "Cosmic Debris" from Apostrophe.

Don't get me wrong, it is very funny. The guy doesn't even say anything, I was waiting for him to say something tangible, nothing there. Somehow, I made it through the whole 35s...  it have me a good laugh trying to figure the angle.

The comments, now that's where it gets really funny! I sprayed fruit loops and milk all over my table... so if ya need a good laugh, check it out! 
 

LmA

 

it is a bit off topic, I won't cry if y'all delete this and the others along these lines...  or perhaps unproved theories!

 

this isnt that bad since hes only promoting a "positive" message. what pisses me off is people fearmongering about this crap. idk the ramifications of a massive solar flare though. apparently in september of 2017 there was an X9 flare that caused a severe geomagnetic storm. last i checked we are still alive. 

Edited August 28, 2022 by shemadebeans
new information

[WildWill]

9 minutes ago, shemadebeans said:

this isnt that bad since hes only promoting a "positive" message. what pisses me off is people fearmongering about this crap. idk the ramifications of a massive solar flare though

We really should get back on topic... there is a post pinned under Solar Wearing called " tips for creating a topic. Ifn you want to pursue this, don't be shy, create a topic. You get a badge for it and a bunch of points (oh boy!).  Seriously, as Orneno said earlier, this really belong on another thread...

Cheers!

WnA

[Tormentius]

You can’t depend on YouTubers for information about this subject. Very few are qualified to speak about the subject. The vast majority are either trying to get clicks with fear, are grifters trying to sell survivalist products that aren’t even ideal for an apocalyptic situation or some strange combination of the two.

Let me give you an example from a video I found and posted about in a Facebook group

https://l.facebook.com/l.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3Fv%3DLSSOUSTGBrM%26t%3D1450s&h=AT38qU2VY3uMQ9YzousdpC6sDVJvkOY2YH2mRrF5T4nD5Kr0WhAl3KKNIUwD7ouUaGtddUTBUkHvl6rPRr-qnQSr0VhRoKM4IdpCDq6NUXsgpNOGCGPhHjKVvagjx9Y&s=1&__wblt=1

The guy in the Santa outfit is who I am referring to. He is Greg Allison, one of the weirdest characters on YouTube. Now, he was once a rocket engineer for NASA but has been out of the business for years and now farms worms.

He regularly goes on shows like this where he states his ridiculous opinions that we are on the verge of a polar reversal which will lead us to being bombarded by CMEs. 
 

Now, even if he is a rocket engineer, he is not a heliophysicist and has no business discussing the Sun. So, he states really out there opinions to this day. 

For instance, he says that the chance of a Carrington Event is higher than 12 percent, the highest it has ever been stated in a study.

What basis does he have for this statement? No clue because he has no studies to back it up.

And my personal favorite, he says that the magnetic field has weakened enough that a 1989 event would take out the grid. Again, no evidence to back him up, just a statement. 
 

So, in a nutshell, guys like this are prime examples for why you have to avoid YouTuber. Nine times out of ten, you’re not getting scientific information, just grifters trying to scare people for clicks and to selll their crappy survivalist seeds

[Sam Warfel]

5 minutes ago, Tormentius said:

So, in a nutshell, guys like this are prime examples for why you have to avoid YouTuber. Nine times out of ten, you’re not getting scientific information, just grifters trying to scare people for clicks and to selll their crappy survivalist seeds

Money is always the bottom line in stuff like this... sadly

20 minutes ago, WildWill said:

We really should get back on topic... there is a post pinned under Solar Wearing called " tips for creating a topic. Ifn you want to pursue this, don't be shy, create a topic. You get a badge for it and a bunch of points (oh boy!).  Seriously, as Orneno said earlier, this really belong on another thread...

Cheers!

WnA

Yup, let's end this here.  Feel free to do as WW suggested though.