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Multiple CMEs Inbound- G1 to G3 storming expected


Flareguy18

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1 minute ago, mozy said:

But looking outside now it's suddenly all cloudy so not like it matters anyway, been clear skies every night for the past week, but when it's aurora time the clouds always show up somehow, fascinating

It's your bad luck. Mozy's law.

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5 minutes ago, mozy said:

It wont reach G3 with these conditions now.

Hmm, I've read about it doing that (but very shortlived) when it slams shut from Negative into positive.

Do you think it will stay positive? If so, why? (Core structure?)

14 minutes ago, mozy said:

It wont reach G3 with these conditions now.

fbda74be91a8b4f54e923db9ce023c4e.png

 

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11 minutes ago, mozy said:

Minor bumps into the positive wouldn't do much but seeing that it seems to be staying there, safe to say my chances are pretty much over.

It hasn't been north for very long at all. It was north for hours and hours last night before it flipped. Anything could happen tonight, especially with more CMEs inbound. 

 

11 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

but isnt G3+ warning out?

It is in effect but will not be reached until we get a strong negative Bz again.

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4 minutes ago, Flareguy18 said:

It hasn't been north for very long at all. It was north for hours and hours last night before it flipped. Anything could happen tonight, especially with more CMEs inbound. 

 

Yes, but I'm talking about my chances, any bumps to north will ruin everything since we have short nights here now. 

Edited by mozy
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8 minutes ago, Flareguy18 said:

I guess it depends on where you look ;) I've always looked at NOAA/SWPC, they now say we've dropped back to G1. 

Noaa gets their Data from Potsdam (what i linked) but they use the 3h KP index. what i send is the (better for aurora chasing afaik) HP30 Nowcast.

@Flareguy18 "NOAA/SWPC has issued a Strong Geomagnetic Storm Warning (Kp=7) until 00Z due to influence from a coronal mass ejection. The U.S. Air Force magnetometer network hourly reading is 6+."

Sadly we dropped back down. But 6+ is cool! 

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33 minutes ago, Flareguy18 said:

Back below -10! It's still a bit erratic, but we are headed the right direction.

Capture.JPG

Will it stabilize for one direction sometime? Or can it wobble from negative-positive?

 Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at active to severe storm levels on day one (18 Aug), unsettled to
major storm levels on day two (19 Aug) and unsettled to active levels on
day three (20 Aug).

 

Noaa says in their 00:00 UTC update Severe (that should be G4?) levels expected/possible but in their (published same time) geomagnetic forecast shart is only G3 mentioned. why? I dont understand this

d5c2efb073c04dcef4a64d6332c5d105.png 

No 8 für "severe" visible. but they said "

The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at active to severe storm levels on day one (18 Aug)"
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1 minute ago, Jesterface23 said:

The velocity and temps are on the rise. If the Bt component falls off a cliff in the span of a few minutes eventually, then that will be one sign that is it.

wow, please keep us updated.

I'm still wondering how many of those at least 6 partially earthbound CME's will truly arrive at Earth.

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1 hour ago, MinYoongi said:

Noaa says in their 00:00 UTC update Severe (that should be G4?) levels expected/possible but in their (published same time) geomagnetic forecast shart is only G3 mentioned. why? I dont understand this

This is probably a low confidence assessment that there's an outside chance of G4 conditions. It's not specifically forecast because it's much more likely to be lower than that, but when you have so many CMEs that are forecast to hit at once, it's not hard to imagine that we could have a very strong geomagnetic response.

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6 minutes ago, Flareguy18 said:

This is probably a low confidence assessment that there's an outside chance of G4 conditions. It's not specifically forecast because it's much more likely to be lower than that, but when you have so many CMEs that are forecast to hit at once, it's not hard to imagine that we could have a very strong geomagnetic response.

agreed.

 

according to Spaceweatherlive twitter we're in G2.. but NOAA says we're KP4 ? :D 

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1 minute ago, MinYoongi said:

according to Spaceweatherlive twitter we're in G2.. but NOAA says we're KP4 ? :D

Yeah.. I'm a bit confused here. NOAA issued a G2 alert at 0011 UTC indicating G2 conditions, but yet displays a Kp of 4. Based on data, I'm not seeing how storming conditions would have intensified.

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5 minutes ago, Flareguy18 said:

Yeah.. I'm a bit confused here. NOAA issued a G2 alert at 0011 UTC indicating G2 conditions, but yet displays a Kp of 4. Based on data, I'm not seeing how storming conditions would have intensified.

Nowcast from Potsdam magnetic research center (they provide data to noaa) shows KP of 4 too in their 30 min nowcast and in the 60min. Also no Negative BZ. Could it be a simple error from noaa?

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