Solarflaretracker200 Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 1 minute ago, Flareguy18 said: Good question... Might need to double check the security of my household Oh. its probably a robber. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 can we stay a bit on topic 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozy Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 3 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: @mozy will the positive BZ hinder further aurora Minor bumps into the positive wouldn't do much but seeing that it seems to be staying there, safe to say my chances are pretty much over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 1 minute ago, mozy said: Minor bumps into the positive wouldn't do much but seeing that it seems to be staying there, safe to say my chances are pretty much over. but isnt G3+ warning out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozy Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 But looking outside now it's suddenly all cloudy so not like it matters anyway, been clear skies every night for the past week, but when it's aurora time the clouds always show up somehow, fascinating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 1 minute ago, mozy said: But looking outside now it's suddenly all cloudy so not like it matters anyway, been clear skies every night for the past week, but when it's aurora time the clouds always show up somehow, fascinating It's your bad luck. Mozy's law. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozy Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 3 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: but isnt G3+ warning out? It wont reach G3 with these conditions now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 5 minutes ago, mozy said: It wont reach G3 with these conditions now. Hmm, I've read about it doing that (but very shortlived) when it slams shut from Negative into positive. Do you think it will stay positive? If so, why? (Core structure?) 14 minutes ago, mozy said: It wont reach G3 with these conditions now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flareguy18 Posted August 17, 2022 Author Share Posted August 17, 2022 11 minutes ago, mozy said: Minor bumps into the positive wouldn't do much but seeing that it seems to be staying there, safe to say my chances are pretty much over. It hasn't been north for very long at all. It was north for hours and hours last night before it flipped. Anything could happen tonight, especially with more CMEs inbound. 11 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: but isnt G3+ warning out? It is in effect but will not be reached until we get a strong negative Bz again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 2 minutes ago, Flareguy18 said: It is in effect but will not be reached until we get a strong negative Bz again. isnt it G3 already? https://isdc.gfz-potsdam.de/nowcast-hpo/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozy Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 (edited) 4 minutes ago, Flareguy18 said: It hasn't been north for very long at all. It was north for hours and hours last night before it flipped. Anything could happen tonight, especially with more CMEs inbound. Yes, but I'm talking about my chances, any bumps to north will ruin everything since we have short nights here now. Edited August 17, 2022 by mozy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flareguy18 Posted August 17, 2022 Author Share Posted August 17, 2022 1 minute ago, MinYoongi said: isnt it G3 already? https://isdc.gfz-potsdam.de/nowcast-hpo/ I guess it depends on where you look I've always looked at NOAA/SWPC, they now say we've dropped back to G1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 8 minutes ago, Flareguy18 said: I guess it depends on where you look I've always looked at NOAA/SWPC, they now say we've dropped back to G1. Noaa gets their Data from Potsdam (what i linked) but they use the 3h KP index. what i send is the (better for aurora chasing afaik) HP30 Nowcast. @Flareguy18 "NOAA/SWPC has issued a Strong Geomagnetic Storm Warning (Kp=7) until 00Z due to influence from a coronal mass ejection. The U.S. Air Force magnetometer network hourly reading is 6+." Sadly we dropped back down. But 6+ is cool! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flareguy18 Posted August 17, 2022 Author Share Posted August 17, 2022 Back below -10! It's still a bit erratic, but we are headed the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 33 minutes ago, Flareguy18 said: Back below -10! It's still a bit erratic, but we are headed the right direction. Will it stabilize for one direction sometime? Or can it wobble from negative-positive? Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to severe storm levels on day one (18 Aug), unsettled to major storm levels on day two (19 Aug) and unsettled to active levels on day three (20 Aug). Noaa says in their 00:00 UTC update Severe (that should be G4?) levels expected/possible but in their (published same time) geomagnetic forecast shart is only G3 mentioned. why? I dont understand this No 8 für "severe" visible. but they said " The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to severe storm levels on day one (18 Aug)" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LunarLights58 Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 Now the Bz is quite far into the positive and holding steady Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 Instead of transitioning from a CIR to CH HSS, we might be in the middle of transitioning from the CME to the CH HSS at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 2 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: Instead of transitioning from a CIR to CH HSS, we might be in the middle of transitioning from the CME to the CH HSS at this point. what makes you think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 (edited) 12 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: what makes you think? The velocity and temps are on the rise. If the Bt component falls off a cliff in the span of a few minutes eventually, then that will be one sign that is it. Edited August 17, 2022 by Jesterface23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted August 18, 2022 Share Posted August 18, 2022 1 minute ago, Jesterface23 said: The velocity and temps are on the rise. If the Bt component falls off a cliff in the span of a few minutes eventually, then that will be one sign that is it. wow, please keep us updated. I'm still wondering how many of those at least 6 partially earthbound CME's will truly arrive at Earth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flareguy18 Posted August 18, 2022 Author Share Posted August 18, 2022 1 hour ago, MinYoongi said: Noaa says in their 00:00 UTC update Severe (that should be G4?) levels expected/possible but in their (published same time) geomagnetic forecast shart is only G3 mentioned. why? I dont understand this This is probably a low confidence assessment that there's an outside chance of G4 conditions. It's not specifically forecast because it's much more likely to be lower than that, but when you have so many CMEs that are forecast to hit at once, it's not hard to imagine that we could have a very strong geomagnetic response. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted August 18, 2022 Share Posted August 18, 2022 6 minutes ago, Flareguy18 said: This is probably a low confidence assessment that there's an outside chance of G4 conditions. It's not specifically forecast because it's much more likely to be lower than that, but when you have so many CMEs that are forecast to hit at once, it's not hard to imagine that we could have a very strong geomagnetic response. agreed. according to Spaceweatherlive twitter we're in G2.. but NOAA says we're KP4 ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flareguy18 Posted August 18, 2022 Author Share Posted August 18, 2022 1 minute ago, MinYoongi said: according to Spaceweatherlive twitter we're in G2.. but NOAA says we're KP4 ? Yeah.. I'm a bit confused here. NOAA issued a G2 alert at 0011 UTC indicating G2 conditions, but yet displays a Kp of 4. Based on data, I'm not seeing how storming conditions would have intensified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted August 18, 2022 Share Posted August 18, 2022 5 minutes ago, Flareguy18 said: Yeah.. I'm a bit confused here. NOAA issued a G2 alert at 0011 UTC indicating G2 conditions, but yet displays a Kp of 4. Based on data, I'm not seeing how storming conditions would have intensified. Nowcast from Potsdam magnetic research center (they provide data to noaa) shows KP of 4 too in their 30 min nowcast and in the 60min. Also no Negative BZ. Could it be a simple error from noaa? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LunarLights58 Posted August 18, 2022 Share Posted August 18, 2022 (edited) Don't forget that they do it for 3 hour periods. NOAA always bases their reports on the 3 hour planetary average K-index. Edited August 18, 2022 by LunarLights58 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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