Flareguy18 Posted August 17, 2022 Author Share Posted August 17, 2022 Bz now dropping south 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newbie Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 This from Spaceweather.com POTENTIAL 'CANNIBAL CME' EVENT (UPDATED): On Aug. 14th, a dark plasma eruption hurled one CME toward Earth. On Aug. 15th, an exploding magnetic filament launched another CME right behind it. The two CMEs will arrive together on Aug.18th, according to the latest forecast model from NOAA: This could be a "Cannibal CME" event. In other words, the second CME might overtake and gobble up the first, creating a mish-mash of the two. Cannibal CMEs contain tangled magnetic fields and compressed plasmas that sometimes spark strong geomagnetic storms. Update: NOAA forecasters have upgraded their geomagnetic storm watch from category G2 (moderate) to category G3 (strong) in response to models that suggest multiple CME impacts on Aug. 18th. During such storms naked-eye auroras can descend into the USA as far south as Illinois and Oregon (geomagnetic latitude 50 degrees). Cameras with sensitive night-sky settings may record auroras even farther south than that. N. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drax Spacex Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 56 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: So its faster than forecasted? Is it the one from the filament eruption or one from 3078? At about 2022-08-13 20:00 there was a CME visible in both Stereo A and LASCO with possible Earth-directed component associated with what appeared to be a disappearing filament eruption and coronal restructuring in the vicinity of 3078. I would not dismiss this as a possible origin event of the early data we're now seeing - amidst many possibilities of course! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CalleB Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 Hold your horses, we have seen potential tangled CMEs before, and thats not at all 100% great news for auroras, since the magnetic fields risk of cancel each other out. If - and only if - we do se impacts of ”multiple CMEs” at L1, then we can start to make predictions. Looking at EPAM, there is a pattern of likely CME impact, and whilst Bz is north, its stable, wich for me is good news, and a flux rope / CME core could and and actually should contain negative Bz, with some luck stable south/ negative direction for hours to come. The likely CH HSS could fuel conditions later on today. just nu few cents 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 4 hours ago, CalleB said: Hold your horses, we have seen potential tangled CMEs before, and thats not at all 100% great news for auroras, since the magnetic fields risk of cancel each other out. It isn't quite canceling each other out. It wouldn't be good if they arrive in line rather than merged. At worse, if they arrive in line it would be shock after shock possibly resulting in consistent change of the IMF components until the arrival of the last CME's flux rope if it hits us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 2 hours ago, Jesterface23 said: It isn't quite canceling each other out. It wouldn't be good if they arrive in line rather than merged. At worse, if they arrive in line it would be shock after shock possibly resulting in consistent change of the IMF components until the arrival of the last CME's flux rope if it hits us. And that would mean less aurora due to no stable minus bz? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 2 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: And that would mean less aurora due to no stable minus bz? Pretty much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobofango Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 I don't think anyone is going to be able to accurately predict what is going to happen with these cannibal CMEs. Pretty much everyone was wrong during last year's Halloween X1.0 flare. That was set up to be an amazing G3, yet pretty much nothing happened lol This is a game of wait and see. I'm excited for the potential of a G3, but I am being cautiously optimistic tonight. Cameras will be ready and I'll be waiting for a -15nT Bz before doing anything else. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 15 minutes ago, Bobofango said: I don't think anyone is going to be able to accurately predict what is going to happen with these cannibal CMEs. Pretty much everyone was wrong during last year's Halloween X1.0 flare. That was set up to be an amazing G3, yet pretty much nothing happened lol This is a game of wait and see. I'm excited for the potential of a G3, but I am being cautiously optimistic tonight. Cameras will be ready and I'll be waiting for a -15nT Bz before doing anything else. Thats a healthy approach. Some people get really mad when stuff does not play out like they wish. The Data looks good. Is that the CH HSS/CIR or CME? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 1 hour ago, Bobofango said: I'll be waiting for a -15nT Bz before doing anything else It dropped below -15 nT briefly, I guess that should count. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 13 minuten geleden, Philalethes Bythos zei: It dropped below -15 nT briefly, I guess that should count. Conditions now are favourable for G2 with a possible G3 if Bz stays southward oriented. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 1 minute ago, Vancanneyt Sander said: Conditions now are favourable for G2 with a possible G3 if Bz stays southward oriented. oh, i thought that was expected for tomorrow. I still dont know what arrival that is. there are now 8 !!! CME's incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flareguy18 Posted August 17, 2022 Author Share Posted August 17, 2022 I don't think we have seen any new CME passages, but rather we are still under the influence of the impact from last night and now it's flipped south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 Zojuist, Flareguy18 zei: I don't think we have seen any new CME passages, but rather we are still under the influence of the impact from last night and now it's flipped south. Yes, no clear CME signature present in the solar wind data and on EPAM. Unless the influence of the CH messed it up 😜 4 minuten geleden, MinYoongi zei: there are now 8 !!! CME's incoming. Looking at LASCO I think less 😜 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 7 minutes ago, Vancanneyt Sander said: Looking at LASCO I think less 😜 Why? I saw dr.Skovs stream yesterday and with the CME from today its 8 that are atleast partially earth directed. Big but: She also mentioned that the CH HSS could push some down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 22 minuten geleden, MinYoongi zei: Why? I saw dr.Skovs stream yesterday and with the CME from today its 8 that are atleast partially earth directed. My trained eye and LASCO images don’t let me see any asymmetrical halo CME. Only with the M5 slightly. But the bulk was always away from us and if they are earth directed it’s a very very faint flank which I don’t expect much from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 6 minutes ago, Vancanneyt Sander said: My trained eye and LASCO images don’t let me see any asymmetrical halo CME. Only with the M5 slightly. But the bulk was always away from us and if they are earth directed it’s a very very faint flank which I don’t expect much from. so you think the G3 is overcasted? Or MAY be overcasted? I still wish everyone best of luck and i DEMAND pictures!:D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LunarLights58 Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 The Bz is solidly at -16 and the hemispheric power is an incredible 130 gigawatts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flareguy18 Posted August 17, 2022 Author Share Posted August 17, 2022 G2 warning just issued. No surprise! Cmon BZ, keep it up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 1 minuut geleden, MinYoongi zei: so you think the G3 is overcasted? Or MAY be overcasted? With current conditions (CH and CME influence) it can evolve in G3. With just one more CME inbound which can again influence the Bz direction. As always: wait till it arrived and then you’ll know the real odds 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LunarLights58 Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 I don't know what you mean by not expecting much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 1 minuut geleden, LunarLights58 zei: I don't know what you mean by not expecting much. I've explained that in my post 😅 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solarflaretracker200 Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 So is this a CME that caused this? Sorry if this is an obvious question, I’m just trying to catch up because I’ve been offline for like..a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 3 minutes ago, Vancanneyt Sander said: With current conditions (CH and CME influence) it can evolve in G3. With just one more CME inbound which can again influence the Bz direction. As always: wait till it arrived and then you’ll know the real odds True, True. I'm just surprised its already this good, because most people placed their bets on tomorrow. Just now, Solarflaretracker200 said: So is this a CME that caused this? Sorry if this is an obvious question, I’m just trying to catch up because I’ve been offline for like..a while Big Coronal Hole 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solarflaretracker200 Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 Just now, MinYoongi said: Big Coronal Hole Oh ok. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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