Multiple CMEs Inbound- G1 to G3 storming expected

[Flareguy18]

4 minutes ago, LunarLights58 said:

Don't forget that they do it for 3 hour periods.

NOAA always bases their reports on the 3 hour planetary average K-index.

True, but even so I cannot see how anything since 00 UTC could have equated to G2 conditions. Seems like an error to me.

[LunarLights58]

Who knows

If this is either a CME or a CIR currently passing Earth, it should end soon and the negative polarity CH HSS will begin affecting Earth and send us into a G3.

 

 

 

[Newbie]

20 minutes ago, Flareguy18 said:

True, but even so I cannot see how anything since 00 UTC could have equated to G2 conditions. Seems like an error to me.

I agree the HP graph doesn't correspond to Kp 6 observation.

N.

[Jesterface23]

Barrow, AK almost reached K7 near the start of the 3 hour increment, so that could be a part of it.

[Archmonoth]

Back to G2 status! 

 

 

[Newbie]

I guess this is what happens when you get a mixed bag of lollies

N.

[AurorahunterPA]

Are we still waiting on more CMEs or other material to hit? I'm mid latitude and it just got dark so I have aaaaallll night. 😝

[Flareguy18]

Data is interesting, looks much more erratic compared to earlier.

While Bz is still stuck north, solar winds are occasionally breaking over 600 km/s. Probably the HSS. Hope the incoming CMEs turn the Bz more favorable for us soon.

[MinYoongi]

15 minutes ago, Archmonoth said:

Back to G2 status! 

 

 

Im confused?

7 minutes ago, Flareguy18 said:

Data is interesting, looks much more erratic compared to earlier.

While Bz is still stuck north, solar winds are occasionally breaking over 600 km/s. Probably the HSS. Hope the incoming CMEs turn the Bz more favorable for us soon.

When are they scheduled to arrive circa? What do you expect? more G3?

[Flareguy18]

4 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

When are they scheduled to arrive circa? What do you expect? more G3?

If I recall, the ENLIL model had an arrival near 2 UTC tonight, so we are looking at arrival at anytime. G2 to G3 storming looks like a decent bet due to multiple shockwaves arriving.

[LunarLights58]

2 minutes ago, Flareguy18 said:

If I recall, the ENLIL model had an arrival near 2 UTC tonight, so we are looking at arrival at anytime. G2 to G3 storming looks like a decent bet due to multiple shockwaves arriving.

That's what I was thinking too. Any moment now... we'll rise up to G3!

 

[MinYoongi]

2 minutes ago, Flareguy18 said:

If I recall, the ENLIL model had an arrival near 2 UTC tonight, so we are looking at arrival at anytime. G2 to G3 storming looks like a decent bet due to multiple shockwaves arriving.

hmm. I thought G3 is more of a possibility due to CH HSS conditioning the environment with negative Bz.  Im thrilled! Its already 3:30 in the night for me, and im still sitting here looking at data  !

1 minute ago, LunarLights58 said:

That's what I was thinking too. Any moment now... we'll rise up to G3!

 

One more question @Flareguy18 are we now in G2? if so, how? Noaa shows no G2

 but on their page it shows G2

But on their k-index webpage it shows G2.. im so confused. @Newbie did you see the nowcast stopped at 00:00 UTC? 

[Flareguy18]

1 minute ago, MinYoongi said:

One more question @Flareguy18 are we now in G2? if so, how? Noaa shows no G2

 

I can't see any way we are in G2 conditions right now. Data right now is very unfavorable. I agree with NOAA in showing no geomagnetic storming at the moment.

4 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

hmm. I thought G3 is more of a possibility due to CH HSS conditioning the environment with negative Bz.  Im thrilled! Its already 3:30 in the night for me, and im still sitting here looking at data  !

G3 will also become more likely because solar wind is higher than before. This is, of course, as long as we see decent Bz  

[MinYoongi]

Just now, Flareguy18 said:

I agree with NOAA in showing no geomagnetic storming at the moment.

Well but according to this link https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index they say we are in G2. But on their little thing on the Homepage they say none. And the centrum for geomagnetism has not updated their KP Data (which they provide for noaa normally) and the HP nowcast. Huh..

Nevermind. It just updated and shows Kp3-4. Well, was a noaa error then  ! 

[Newbie]

1 hour ago, MinYoongi said:

hmm. I thought G3 is more of a possibility due to CH HSS conditioning the environment with negative Bz.  Im thrilled! Its already 3:30 in the night for me, and im still sitting here looking at data  !

One more question @Flareguy18 are we now in G2? if so, how? Noaa shows no G2

 but on their page it shows G2

But on their k-index webpage it shows G2.. im so confused. @Newbie did you see the nowcast stopped at 00:00 UTC? 

No Min I didn't look at it, but the auroral oval shows nothing. You would expect to see some red if it was G2. Someone mentioned earlier that there was a Kp 6-7 reported in Alaska. There is a lot of variation between stations that report Kp. NOAA do a pretty good job on the whole IMO, but they are not perfect. 

In Australia we're not going to see anything of consequence. What you want to see is sustained negative  bz.

N.

Edited August 18, 2022 by Newbie

[Solarflaretracker200]

Oof looks like the storm is gone. 

[Bobofango]

I wouldnt count her out just yet.

If this was just a single CHS or CME event, I would say its a dud, but since we are dealing with multiple events crossing each other, it's more difficult to say. Anything can happen within the next 4 hours.

[MinYoongi]

1 hour ago, Newbie said:

No Min I didn't look at it, but the auroral oval shows nothing. You would expect to see some red if it was G2. Someone mentioned earlier that there was a Kp 6-7 reported in Alaska. There is a lot of variation between stations that report Kp. NOAA do a pretty good job on the whole IMO, but they are not perfect. 

In Australia we're not going to see anything of consequence. What you want to see is sustained negative  bz.

N.

I was hoping for some aurora maybe maybe down to northern Germany because my friend lives near the sea and he couldve seen them. Saaaad.:( now its sunrise.

[LunarLights58]

Doesn't matter anymore now for me as clouds are taking over.

 

[Newbie]

6 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

I was hoping for some aurora maybe maybe down to northern Germany because my friend lives near the sea and he couldve seen them. Saaaad.:( now its sunrise.

Yeah I sympathise Min, anyone who has ever chased aurorae/s myself included have their tales of disappointment. Perhaps we should all move inside the arctic circle? Lol

[Flareguy18]

32 minutes ago, Bobofango said:

I wouldnt count her out just yet.

If this was just a single CHS or CME event, I would say its a dud, but since we are dealing with multiple events crossing each other, it's more difficult to say. Anything can happen within the next 4 hours.

100% agreed! I'm seeing many on Twitter calling this a "media hype bust". It's just simply too early to call it quits on it. We are still due for CME strikes at just about any time which could re-ignite things.

[Jesterface23]

The maximum velocity if the next in line CME arrived right now would be around 575km/s and it will only go down as time goes on. So there is a possibility, but not great.

[Drax Spacex]

17 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

The maximum velocity if the next in line CME arrived right now would be around 575km/s and it will only go down as time goes on. So there is a possibility, but not great.

Arrival of subsequent CMEs may be evidenced not so much in increase of solar wind speed but perhaps in step-wise increase(s) in density and/or Bt.  Arrival of the CME may also jostle the IMF into a different mode, possibly a persistently negative Bz.

[Bobofango]

There's currently a slight glimmer of hope in the southward Bz. May be enough to push into a G1. Maybe.

[KW2P]

I must say this is the craziest behavior of the ionosphere I've ever seen. I don't remember ever seeing the hemispheric power spike up and down so fast.