Flareguy18 Posted August 16, 2022 Share Posted August 16, 2022 Hi everyone! The Sun has been much more active over the last 48 hours. Many flares and CMEs have occurred and at least a few of these are likely to affect Earth over the next few to several days. NOAA/SWPC has issued a watch for geomagnetic activity beginning with the onset of an HSS for 8-17 (G1 conditions possible). As multiple CMEs arrive together on Aug 18th, geomagnetic conditions may intensify as high as G3! G1 to G2 conditions may then persist into Aug 19th. This thread will cover the geomagnetic activity! Let's hope for some brilliant auroras! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JPMK Posted August 16, 2022 Share Posted August 16, 2022 (edited) Fantastic news. Lets hope for my sake that the impact is earlier. Currently 2+ hours with a rising sun around 05:00. thank you for info! Edited August 16, 2022 by JPMK 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted August 16, 2022 Share Posted August 16, 2022 2 hours ago, Flareguy18 said: Hi everyone! The Sun has been much more active over the last 48 hours. Many flares and CMEs have occurred and at least a few of these are likely to affect Earth over the next few to several days. NOAA/SWPC has issued a watch for geomagnetic activity beginning with the onset of an HSS for 8-17 (G1 conditions possible). As multiple CMEs arrive together on Aug 18th, geomagnetic conditions may intensify as high as G3! G1 to G2 conditions may then persist into Aug 19th. This thread will cover the geomagnetic activity! Let's hope for some brilliant auroras! Hi! Thanks for opening up this thread beforehand, it's nice to already have a place to go to then! I just wanted to ask something, do you think G3 is the most probable? Or rather G2? I know its really hard to predict with all the smaller eruptions mushed together send our way and the CH pushing the Streams down eventually, but maybe you know more than i do. I'd love to see an update by @Marcel de Bont or @Vancanneyt Sander since initially they thought nothing of it after the i think first Eruption ! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flareguy18 Posted August 16, 2022 Author Share Posted August 16, 2022 28 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: I just wanted to ask something, do you think G3 is the most probable? Or rather G2? I know its really hard to predict with all the smaller eruptions mushed together send our way and the CH pushing the Streams down eventually, but maybe you know more than i do. I'd love to see an update by @Marcel de Bont or @Vancanneyt Sander since initially they thought nothing of it after the i think first Eruption ! It is very interesting indeed! I honestly didn't know what to think, since the majority of the CMEs over the last 48 hours have been directed more in a southerly direction. However, there were a couple partial-halos that came from the west limb, which eruptions from that area tend to be more geoeffective due to the Parker spiral. With the multitude of CME's we have seen, coupled with an HSS, I'd say the call for up to G3 conditions is certainly warranted. Even if some of the CMEs miss, it will be close and we can still have disturbances from a nearby passage. Only time will tell! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted August 16, 2022 Share Posted August 16, 2022 10 minutes ago, Flareguy18 said: It is very interesting indeed! I honestly didn't know what to think, since the majority of the CMEs over the last 48 hours have been directed more in a southerly direction. However, there were a couple partial-halos that came from the west limb, which eruptions from that area tend to be more geoeffective due to the Parker spiral. With the multitude of CME's we have seen, coupled with an HSS, I'd say the call for up to G3 conditions is certainly warranted. Even if some of the CMEs miss, it will be close and we can still have disturbances from a nearby passage. Only time will tell! Thank you! Do you think some will miss? Im optimistic they wont! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flareguy18 Posted August 16, 2022 Author Share Posted August 16, 2022 Just now, MinYoongi said: Thank you! Do you think some will miss? Im optimistic they wont! I'm optimistic that many of the CMEs will hit, yes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drax Spacex Posted August 16, 2022 Share Posted August 16, 2022 At Kp0 currently, this must be the calm before the storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Strom Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 1 hour ago, Drax Spacex said: At Kp0 currently, this must be the calm before the storm! It take a couple days to get here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 1 hour ago, Flareguy18 said: I'm optimistic that many of the CMEs will hit, yes I think something is arriving right now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 The temperature drop to me says it is the CIR in one of the process of entering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 Just now, Jesterface23 said: The temperature drop to me says it is the CIR in one of the process of entering. someone on twitter said Temp drop says CME Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 7 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: someone on twitter said Temp drop says CME That is the opposite. Normally everything would rise, velocity, density, temp, and Bt component. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 1 minute ago, Jesterface23 said: That is the opposite. Normally everything would rise, velocity, density, temp, and Bt component. youre right! But wouldnt that mean a earlier than anticipated CH HSS arrival? Or can the CIR occur that early? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 2 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: youre right! But wouldnt that mean a earlier than anticipated CH HSS arrival? Or can the CIR occur that early? The CIR arrival time seems reasonable. When the CH HSS will begin to arrive, only time will tell. A CME could arrive between the two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 2 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: The CIR arrival time seems reasonable. When the CH HSS will begin to arrive, only time will tell. A CME could arrive between the two. I'm very curious if some of the CME's will push each other south or get pushed by the CH HSS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 This might be that little-ish CME. See if the velocities can make it's way near 500km/s or go past it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 1 hour ago, Jesterface23 said: This might be that little-ish CME. See if the velocities can make it's way near 500km/s or go past it. Yep! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 Specifically the velocity of some CMEs spike on arrival then drop from there or do two steps within a few hours like this one. So it was a little tricky to tell if it was a really good SIR or if it was the first velocity step. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drax Spacex Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 Something hit DSCOVR. Wind speed, Density, Bt IMF all higher. Bt is moderately strong at 18. Bz, the unpredictable wildcard, is currently North. If Bz turns sharply and persistently South, aurora and Kp index could ramp up quickly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flareguy18 Posted August 17, 2022 Author Share Posted August 17, 2022 There have been a number of CMEs for the past 48+ hours so at this point, it could be anything. I'd say it's *probably* not the 8-14 event though. Definitely would expect a bigger shock, especially if it's supposed to be a "cannibal" event combined with the 8-15 CME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 Does someone know if its a cir or cme? 14 minutes ago, Flareguy18 said: There have been a number of CMEs for the past 48+ hours so at this point, it could be anything. I'd say it's *probably* not the 8-14 event though. Definitely would expect a bigger shock, especially if it's supposed to be a "cannibal" event combined with the 8-15 CME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flareguy18 Posted August 17, 2022 Author Share Posted August 17, 2022 6 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: Does someone know if its a cir or cme? That is very intriguing! Perhaps it could be then. It's way ahead of NOAA's prediction though which is why I'm skeptical. I guess we will know at the next discussion update from NOAA at 1230 UTC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 5 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: Does someone know if its a cir or cme? The arrival at 02:13Z at DSCOVR was a CME. 17 minutes ago, Flareguy18 said: I'd say it's *probably* not the 8-14 event though. It is on the lower side of the reasonable velocities currently for it's travel time, but it is the 8/14 CME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 2 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: The arrival at 02:13Z at DSCOVR was a CME. It is on the lower side of the reasonable velocities currently for it's travel time, but it is the 8/14 CME. So its faster than forecasted? Is it the one from the filament eruption or one from 3078? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 1 minute ago, MinYoongi said: So its faster than forecasted? Is it the one from the filament eruption or one from 3078? It is the 3076 filament eruption. I didn't forecast that CME for a reason, the leading span was too small and I think that is where it threw off the SWPC model. It looks like a few models on the CME scoreboard did decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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