Region 3078

[MinYoongi]

2 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

It looks like not with this one,

Where did you get that from? i cant find it on official nasa site. maybe an old run?

Just now, MinYoongi said:

Where did you get that from? i cant find it on official nasa site. maybe an old run?

it also starts on the 17th

this looks like the run from yesterdays CME a little bit @Jesterface23 dont you think? 

[Jesterface23]

3 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

Where did you get that from? i cant find it on official nasa site. maybe an old run?

http://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/IswaSystemWebApp/index.jsp?i_1=557&l_1=60&t_1=364&w_1=500&h_1=510&s_1=2022-08-18 14:53:54.0_1_20_3&i_2=698&l_2=656&t_2=212&w_2=650&h_2=450&s_2=2022-08-18 14:10:00.0_1_1_0&i_3=698&l_3=657&t_3=660&w_3=650&h_3=450&s_3=2022-08-18 13:37:00.0_1_1_0

Edited August 18, 2022 by Jesterface23

[MinYoongi]

2 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

http://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/IswaSystemWebApp/index.jsp?i_1=557&l_1=60&t_1=364&w_1=500&h_1=510&s_1=2022-08-18 14:53:54.0_1_20_3&i_2=698&l_2=656&t_2=212&w_2=650&h_2=450&s_2=2022-08-18 14:10:00.0_1_1_0&i_3=698&l_3=657&t_3=660&w_3=650&h_3=450&s_3=2022-08-18 13:37:00.0_1_1_0

Wow they actually did a rerun! i saw the run from 13:36 UTC and linked it earlier. Okay, so more of a miss/graze? 

[Jesterface23]

2 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

Okay, so more of a miss/graze? 

The side of the CME is coming, the question will be if the ambient solar wind velocities are low enough.

[MinYoongi]

5 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

The side of the CME is coming, the question will be if the ambient solar wind velocities are low enough.

low enough?

by the way, how can those runs differ so much? Maybe someone can give me an explanation. very interested in CME modelling.

[Jesterface23]

6 hours ago, MinYoongi said:

by the way, how can those runs differ so much? Maybe someone can give me an explanation. very interested in CME modelling.

I'm not sure if the model is automated, but the more data and imagery the better.

[Newbie]

6 hours ago, MinYoongi said:

low enough?

by the way, how can those runs differ so much? Maybe someone can give me an explanation. very interested in CME modelling.

Hi Min when you get a lot of CME's and CH activity impacting the Earth's magnetic field one after another any further CME should have a clearer path through so the impact of any further activity could be enhanced. It's like a one - two punch. I believe that's what happened during the Halloween storms.

WRT CME's, the word 'structure' is often referred to. A CME contains a bunch of tangled magnetic flux ropes that can show handedness: left or right in the way they are twisted. These flux ropes in all their twisted configurations and magnetic interactions plus electrons, protons and alpha particles constitute a cornal mass ejection.

Below is from Wiki. 

The exact cause of CMEs is not currently known; however, it is generally thought that CMEs are caused by the destabilization of large-scale magnetic structures in the corona and the resulting reconfiguration of the coronal magnetic field.[8]

The phenomenon of magnetic reconnection is closely associated with many models of both CMEs and solar flares.[20][21] In magnetohydrodynamic theory, magnetic reconnection is the sudden rearrangement of magnetic field lines when two oppositely directed magnetic fields are brought together. Reconnection releases magnetic energy stored in the original stressed magnetic fields. These magnetic field lines can become twisted in a helical structure, with a 'right-hand twist' or a 'left-hand twist'. As the Sun's magnetic field lines become more and more twisted, CMEs appear to be a 'valve' to release the magnetic energy being built up, as evidenced by the helical structure of CMEs, that would otherwise renew itself continuously each solar cycle and eventually rip the Sun apart.[22]

.....and this from NOAA it references the ENLIL diagrams.

The modeling system consists of two main parts: 1) a semi-empirical near-Sun module that approximates the outflow at the base of the solar wind; and 2) a sophisticated 3‑D magnetohydrodynamic numerical model that simulates the resulting flow evolution out to Earth. The former module is driven by observations of the solar surface magnetic field, as taken over a solar rotation and composited into a synoptic map; this input is used to drive a parameterized near-Sun expansion of the solar corona, which is subsequently input into the second, interplanetary module to compute the quasi-steady (ambient) solar wind outflow. Finally, when an Earth-directed CME is detected, coronagraph images from NASA spacecraft are used to characterize the basic properties of the CME, including timing, location, direction, and speed. This input (the “cone” model) is injected into the pre-existing ambient conditions, and the subsequent transient evolution forms the basis for the prediction of the CME arrival time at Earth, its intensity, and its duration.

In the movie, the Sun is represented as a yellow dot, the Earth by a green dot, and the STEREO spacecraft by the red and blue dots.  The top row represents the WSA-Enlil predicted solar wind density and the bottom row the predicted solar wind velocity.  On the left is a pinwheel plot of the ecliptic plane, showing all of the solar wind structures that are likely to encounter Earth or which have recently encountered Earth, in what is effectively an 'overhead' view.  While the STEREO spacecraft are shown, this ecliptic slice does not normally pass through these satellites, though it is typically fairly close.  In the middle are meridional slices that go through the Earth, showing the solar wind structures that will encounter Earth from a 'side' view.  On the right, the predicted density and velocity values for the location of Earth and the two STEREO spacecraft are plotted. 

Newbie

[MinYoongi]

its cute  but that was not really my question, or what i meant with the question.

 

I was rather wondered how the 2 runs could be so different. But as Jester said, more imagery and thus other inputs can dramatically change a model i guess!

[Newbie]

10 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

its cute  but that was not really my question, or what i meant with the question.

 

I was rather wondered how the 2 runs could be so different. But as Jester said, more imagery and thus other inputs can dramatically change a model i guess!

Oh yeah I edited that bit out and didnt put it back in lol, updated information would cause a rerun of the model

Enjoy your day/night

N.

[MinYoongi]

You too dear ❤️ Thank you again for always thoroughly answering questions, i appreciate it alot.

By the way i had a question. This Flare related filament eruption, could it be earth directed? it looks to be really, really west. and i know we dont have lasco yet. just asking people with a bit of experience if that trajectory even "allows" it  ? 

[Newbie]

55 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

You too dear ❤️ Thank you again for always thoroughly answering questions, i appreciate it alot.

By the way i had a question. This Flare related filament eruption, could it be earth directed? it looks to be really, really west. and i know we dont have lasco yet. just asking people with a bit of experience if that trajectory even "allows" it  ? 

Hmm looks a bit South and West, but it depends on the angle of the ejected material. What do you think Min?

N.

[MinYoongi]

2 minutes ago, Newbie said:

Hmm looks a bit South and West, but it depends on the angle of the ejected material. What do you think Min?

N.

it looks to go strongly south and west, i do not think it will have any earthdirected component. i wish i was better and more experienced though, i always feel very low confidence in my own "forecasts".

[WildWill]

1 hour ago, MinYoongi said:

You too dear ❤️ Thank you again for always thoroughly answering questions, i appreciate it alot.

By the way i had a question. This Flare related filament eruption, could it be earth directed? it looks to be really, really west. and i know we dont have lasco yet. just asking people with a bit of experience if that trajectory even "allows" it  ? 

Now that is fantastic (and absolutely beautiful!) Thanks for sharing!

WnA

[Archmonoth]

M class flare, long duration now, almost an hour.

 

Perhaps some X class flares soon!

Edited August 19, 2022 by Archmonoth

[Sam Warfel]

6 hours ago, Archmonoth said:

M class flare, long duration now, almost an hour.

 

Perhaps some X class flares soon!

We got a Type II and a Type IV both from it, probably a very nice CME. I hope it has an Earth-directed component but given the spots location it’s not all that likely. 

10 hours ago, MinYoongi said:

it looks to go strongly south and west, i do not think it will have any earthdirected component. i wish i was better and more experienced though, i always feel very low confidence in my own "forecasts".

Experience can improve confidence. It has for me, maybe a little too much lol 

[Jesterface23]

The CME is Earth directed with another halo, but it is even further off to the side than yesterdays.

[MinYoongi]

31 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

The CME is Earth directed with another halo, but it is even further off to the side than yesterdays.

So if yesterdays is just barely a glancing blow same with this? Mmmh.

[Jesterface23]

18 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

So if yesterdays is just barely a glancing blow same with this? Mmmh.

The imagery is limited, so at this point it could be anywhere from 3-5 days travel time, which would be in the area of questioning if it would make it to Earth.

[Solarflaretracker200]

8 hours ago, Archmonoth said:

 

M class flare, long duration now, almost an hour.

 

Dang that’s long

[SunspotRager93]

Is that rare to happen?

[Solarflaretracker200]

3 minutes ago, SunspotRager93 said:

Is that rare to happen?

I don’t think so. 
But I don’t know. I haven’t been on here for like over a month so I’ve forgotten stuff lol

[Drax Spacex]

2 hours ago, MinYoongi said:

So if yesterdays is just barely a glancing blow same with this? Mmmh.

AR3078 eventually created a bridge across that long coronal hole, essentially bifurcating it.  While the CH was intact, it may have been pushing those numerous CMEs to the south - or the CH wind was so strong it overwhelmed most CMEs.  But this CME, launch date 2022/08/17 14:00, with its full halo might be detectable upon arrival (on the 21st?).  We'll see.

Edited August 19, 2022 by Drax Spacex
added launch date

[Philalethes]

19 minutes ago, Drax Spacex said:

But this CME with its full halo, albeit weak, *might* be detectable upon arrival.

Hope springs eternal.

[Solarflaretracker200]

Anyone know why there is radio emission?

[mozy]

25 minutes ago, Solarflaretracker200 said:

Anyone know why there is radio emission?

CME from the C6 flare