MinYoongi Posted August 16, 2022 Author Share Posted August 16, 2022 ASAP Flare monitor suggests the region got more complex, but i dont see it.. can anyone give an opinion? Note : Those are only Models / Algorythms/AI. Its NOT made by Humans and to be taken with a big grain of salt! I'm just interested in how accurate/good they already are and use em as guidance for my own learning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozy Posted August 16, 2022 Share Posted August 16, 2022 1 hour ago, MinYoongi said: ASAP Flare monitor suggests the region got more complex, but i dont see it.. can anyone give an opinion? Some delta spots have grown again, but I wouldn't think the flare monitor would pick up on that right away, I don't trust these at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted August 16, 2022 Author Share Posted August 16, 2022 16 minutes ago, mozy said: but I wouldn't think the flare monitor would pick up on that right away, I don't trust these at all Yeah, the flare monitor lists it as Beta Gamma! They're nowhere near perfect yet, i still think its mega cool it kind of works! 18 minutes ago, mozy said: Some delta spots have grown again Those to the right? I saw a little spec there. How many deltas does it have? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozy Posted August 16, 2022 Share Posted August 16, 2022 3 hours ago, MinYoongi said: Those to the right? I saw a little spec there. How many deltas does it have? A few but they're all really small, another low level M-class now nevertheless. Looks like there's really minor ejecta with this one aswell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedreamon Posted August 16, 2022 Share Posted August 16, 2022 Another M-Class flare! I can't confirm yet if it's from this region, but it probably is considering the previous ones were. It seems like another impulsive one, but it might not be since its decline on GOES looks slower than the M5.1 flare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solarflaretracker200 Posted August 16, 2022 Share Posted August 16, 2022 Ok what the heck. I started to watch the sun and it’s activity yesterday again, and it’s been active Since I’ve been watching. 🤔 ❓❓ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted August 16, 2022 Author Share Posted August 16, 2022 39 minutes ago, mozy said: A few but they're all really small, another low level M-class now nevertheless. Looks like there's really minor ejecta with this one aswell. Im waiting for solar demon, alr saw tweets about the CH blocking ejecta/full cme's though earlier @mozy There is Ejecta i think, Tamitha skov explained how the slow ramp down usually speaks for a flare being eruptive. she also mentioned the CH pushing some ejecta southward though and stalling Eruptions. (now on PC, can finally type more precisely.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted August 16, 2022 Share Posted August 16, 2022 Can we have one big CME 3078 please. Not on the limb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solarflaretracker200 Posted August 16, 2022 Share Posted August 16, 2022 Just now, Jesterface23 said: Can we have one big CME 3078 please. Not on the limb. How about an X class to go with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted August 16, 2022 Author Share Posted August 16, 2022 When does the AR leave the CME-Favorable position? Tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted August 16, 2022 Share Posted August 16, 2022 1 minute ago, MinYoongi said: When does the AR leave the CME-Favorable position? Tomorrow? About 1 day. Possibly 2 if there is something major. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted August 16, 2022 Author Share Posted August 16, 2022 15 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: About 1 day. Possibly 2 if there is something major. thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted August 17, 2022 Author Share Posted August 17, 2022 what do you guys think is the chance for flares right now? Tamitha skov said 20% or something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pär Andersson Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 hi from Lasco an hour and a half after the M5 What mass travel in that speed ? It seem like we have a interesting thing that are coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mogh, Lord of Blood Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 I don't understand why people seems to want a big Solar flare and CME coming toward us, maybe they are things i don't fully understand but, KP scale is high for the next days, an X solar might hit us, isn't all of that signs of high risks for power grid, internet etc...It has provoked radio blackout already and a Geomagnetic storm is on it's way today I know that we have discussed about that the risks that an Carrington event or other really Bad event Solar flare like that to happen again, that the odds are low All of this is new for me, i've stopped read articles on internet i'm only checking here and spacewithercom, i just don't know when things are Bad or okay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozy Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 30 minutes ago, Mogh, Lord of Blood said: I don't understand why people seems to want a big Solar flare and CME coming toward us, maybe they are things i don't fully understand but, KP scale is high for the next days, an X solar might hit us, isn't all of that signs of high risks for power grid, internet etc...It has provoked radio blackout already and a Geomagnetic storm is on it's way today I know that we have discussed about that the risks that an Carrington event or other really Bad event Solar flare like that to happen again, that the odds are low All of this is new for me, i've stopped read articles on internet i'm only checking here and spacewithercom, i just don't know when things are Bad or okay Personally for me, big solar events excite me, especially if they're earth-directed & they send out CME's towards earth since I live in Sweden where we see the northern lights relatively often with these types of events. When you've gathered enough knowledge about the sun & what it takes for it to really affect us, It's going to click that you basically had nothing to worry about. You really don't have to worry about massive power grid failtures or anything similar with these types of events we're seeing every solar cycle. Also, yes do not read most mainstream media/articles about the sun/solar storms, they're mostly spitting out false/fear-mongering information, it happens far too often. But let us not mess this thread up by going off-topic ^^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3gMike Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 10 hours ago, MinYoongi said: Im waiting for solar demon, alr saw tweets about the CH blocking ejecta/full cme's though earlier @mozy There is Ejecta i think, Tamitha skov explained how the slow ramp down usually speaks for a flare being eruptive. she also mentioned the CH pushing some ejecta southward though and stalling Eruptions. (now on PC, can finally type more precisely.) The latest synoptic map shows that the CH has split into two, leaving a gap around AR3078, so that may make a difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newbie Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 (edited) 5 hours ago, Mogh, Lord of Blood said: I don't understand why people seems to want a big Solar flare and CME coming toward us, maybe they are things i don't fully understand but, KP scale is high for the next days, an X solar might hit us, isn't all of that signs of high risks for power grid, internet etc...It has provoked radio blackout already and a Geomagnetic storm is on it's way today I know that we have discussed about that the risks that an Carrington event or other really Bad event Solar flare like that to happen again, that the odds are low All of this is new for me, i've stopped read articles on internet i'm only checking here and spacewithercom, i just don't know when things are Bad or okay Nothing to fear Mogh LOB, stay chilled, enjoy the ride and the aurora pics when they come. N. Edited August 17, 2022 by Newbie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozy Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 If only there wasn't so much penumbral separation I bet we would see some fireworks from this region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solarflaretracker200 Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 5 hours ago, Mogh, Lord of Blood said: I don't understand why people seems to want a big Solar flare and CME coming toward us Big solar flare with big CME= KP8 or KP9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted August 17, 2022 Author Share Posted August 17, 2022 43 minutes ago, mozy said: If only there wasn't so much penumbral separation I bet we would see some fireworks from this region. How is the region developing though? I'm comparing screenshots and it does seem to decay or atleast shrink a little bit? I do think there are still deltas but as its my weakness, i cant see them 😕 where to look for? Are the recent C-Class Enhancements from 3078 or the northeastern region? Looking at Suvi its so hard to tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solarflaretracker200 Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 Just now, MinYoongi said: do think there are still deltas but as its my weakness, i cant see them Don’t worry I don’t even know where to look anymore because I’ve been off this app that long. 🤣 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newbie Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 1 hour ago, MinYoongi said: How is the region developing though? I'm comparing screenshots and it does seem to decay or atleast shrink a little bit? I do think there are still deltas but as its my weakness, i cant see them 😕 where to look for? Are the recent C-Class Enhancements from 3078 or the northeastern region? Looking at Suvi its so hard to tell. From Solarsoft Still potential for eruptions. NASA Synoptic map has 3078 as C70%/M25%/X5%/proton5% N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted August 17, 2022 Author Share Posted August 17, 2022 4 minutes ago, Newbie said: From Solarsoft Yeah, but isnt that "just" a program? Noaa sometimes assigns Flares wrong too. Thank you nevertheless! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newbie Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 10 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: Yeah, but isnt that "just" a program? Noaa sometimes assigns Flares wrong too. Thank you nevertheless! Min, I've seen mistakes on all platforms. IMO go with the information you have at hand until new information comes in. N. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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