MinYoongi Posted August 17, 2022 Author Share Posted August 17, 2022 7 minutes ago, Flareguy18 said: Emerging on C3... I think this is the most impressive one we have seen yet in this latest string of CMEs. I initially did not see any ejecta directed more to the N on C2, but C3 is showing a more complete picture. I'm actually wondering if these are multiple CMEs in very quick succession. The northern ejecta almost looks like it's a hair ahead of the denser stuff in the SW. and what about trajectory now? looks cool 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 I look almost everywhere for imagery, but mainly JHelioviewer with differenced imagery. They have an online version here, https://helioviewer.org/. In the coronagraph imagery a glancing blow would be on the side of the dull shock and direct hit would be the bright side with the flux rope. In this case, we might be right between the two. Noting that this is two CMEs actually. the second is more southward and the first is directed south-southwest. I'm not sure if the second is Earth directed. I'll go with a preliminary arrival time of 2022/08/20 02:00Z -4/+6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HalfFeralHuman Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 It's the secondary flares (from chaotic interactions in the winds) that I'm looking for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozy Posted August 18, 2022 Share Posted August 18, 2022 Yet another CME produced from the 2 M flares Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted August 18, 2022 Share Posted August 18, 2022 (edited) Another M-flare from 3078. Edited August 18, 2022 by Philalethes Bythos mistook yesterday's LASCO data for today's, scratch that about the CME Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozy Posted August 18, 2022 Share Posted August 18, 2022 The CME looks really impressive on SUVI 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newbie Posted August 18, 2022 Share Posted August 18, 2022 And that sunspot keeps on giving M 1.59 N. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted August 18, 2022 Author Share Posted August 18, 2022 1 hour ago, mozy said: The CME looks really impressive on SUVI But too far south right? (Only stereo available) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted August 18, 2022 Share Posted August 18, 2022 (edited) 19 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: But too far south right? (Only stereo available) I think that might be an "illusion" of sorts arising from the fact that the filament isn't visible over the disc itself, if you look at the video on their site of the 304 Angstrom wavelength, it's easier to interpolate how it's moving out of the sunspot. It could be that it is indeed blowing out too far south, but it's hard to distinguish that from movement towards the line of sight that would be relatively faster instead, due to the lack of proper depth. To my untrained eyes it almost seems like a chunk of it could be moving towards us. I do however agree that it looks like the most sizable portion of it seems to be moving too far south. Edited August 18, 2022 by Philalethes Bythos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted August 18, 2022 Share Posted August 18, 2022 (edited) The CME is Earth directed with another part bright, part dull halo. In C2 imagery it looks like a glancing blow if it is fast enough. Will need to confirm in C3 imagery once available. Apparently I didn't give the C3 imagery enough time to load. I came to a preliminary arrival time of 2022/08/21 12:55Z -8/+12 hours for the imagery available so far. Edited August 18, 2022 by Jesterface23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted August 18, 2022 Share Posted August 18, 2022 (edited) 29 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: The CME is Earth directed with another part bright, part dull halo. In C2 imagery it looks like a glancing blow if it is fast enough. Will need to confirm in C3 imagery once available. I was just looking at C3, and there seems to be a noticeable halo component, still waiting for a bit more imagery there. Did you conclude that it was Earth-directed just by looking at C2, or something else? Edited August 18, 2022 by Philalethes Bythos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solarflaretracker200 Posted August 18, 2022 Share Posted August 18, 2022 Another M class 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted August 18, 2022 Share Posted August 18, 2022 And another one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted August 18, 2022 Share Posted August 18, 2022 11 minutes ago, Philalethes Bythos said: Did you conclude that it was Earth-directed just by looking at C2, or something else? It can take as little as C2 imagery. As long as a halo is >180 degrees the CME is Earth directed. Given if a halo is near 180 degrees, odds are it may not make it to Earth though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solarflaretracker200 Posted August 18, 2022 Share Posted August 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, Philalethes Bythos said: And another one. That’s the one I’m talking about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted August 18, 2022 Share Posted August 18, 2022 Just now, Jesterface23 said: It can take as little as C2 imagery. As long as a halo is >180 degrees the CME is Earth directed. Given if a halo is near 180 degrees, odds are it may not make it to Earth though. Agreed, I rather meant that I was personally struggling to make out a halo on C2; now that I look closer I think I can see it quite faintly. On the beginning of the C3 imagery it's easier to see, and it seems like there's a slight halo all the way around (360 degrees), but I could be wrong. 2 minutes ago, Solarflaretracker200 said: That’s the one I’m talking about Heh; I commented it just as I saw the "new reply" notification pop up, I was also talking about that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solarflaretracker200 Posted August 18, 2022 Share Posted August 18, 2022 1 minute ago, Philalethes Bythos said: Heh; I commented it just as I saw the "new reply" notification pop up, I was also talking about that one. Oh I see 🤣 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted August 18, 2022 Share Posted August 18, 2022 38 minutes ago, Philalethes Bythos said: now that I look closer I think I can see it quite faintly. Differenced imagery makes all the difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted August 18, 2022 Author Share Posted August 18, 2022 Yesterdays CME will only graze earth really, really slightly. Why should todays CME have a much bigger impact? (if at all) Here's a model for today and im really surprised @Jesterface23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted August 18, 2022 Share Posted August 18, 2022 10 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: Differenced imagery makes all the difference Is that something NOAA or someone else releases, or do you process their imagery yourself? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted August 18, 2022 Author Share Posted August 18, 2022 8 minutes ago, Philalethes Bythos said: Is that something NOAA or someone else releases, or do you process their imagery yourself? i think lasco has diff imagery themselfes or what do you mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted August 18, 2022 Share Posted August 18, 2022 11 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: Here's a model for today and im really surprised It is a pretty good CME, but I think the bulk went south and that may show in later model runs. 13 minutes ago, Philalethes Bythos said: Is that something NOAA or someone else releases, or do you process their imagery yourself? I use JHelioviewer, but Helioviewer is an online version, https://helioviewer.org/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted August 18, 2022 Author Share Posted August 18, 2022 3 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: It is a pretty good CME, but I think the bulk went south and that may show in later model runs. they usually only do 1. why do you think bulk went south? i mean, the model shows 80% going south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted August 18, 2022 Share Posted August 18, 2022 8 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: i think lasco has diff imagery themselfes or what do you mean Perhaps I'm not interpreting that right. When I think of differenced imagery, I think about imagery that has been processed to highlight only the relevant portions, like when you e.g. change saturation or contrast of images to highlight details that stand out or pieces that have been manipulated. Some searches leads me to believe that this indeed what is referenced here, as I found some results indicating that means imagery where you subtract the pre-CME imagery from the post-CME imagery. If this is available for LASCO, I'm not aware of it. 3 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: I use JHelioviewer, but Helioviewer is an online version, https://helioviewer.org/ I see, interesting. There's a package for it in the AUR, I'll check it out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted August 18, 2022 Share Posted August 18, 2022 3 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: they usually only do 1. It looks like not with this one, 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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