MinYoongi Posted August 17, 2022 Author Share Posted August 17, 2022 @mozy The region still got it it seems. but yeah, looking at the movie from SDO its loosing penumbra area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solarflaretracker200 Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 Another M class 😎 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted August 17, 2022 Author Share Posted August 17, 2022 12 minutes ago, Philalethes Bythos said: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solarflaretracker200 Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 35 minutes ago, Philalethes Bythos said: That too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 The M2 flare was fairly eruptive. Now to wait and see if the CME is Earth directed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted August 17, 2022 Author Share Posted August 17, 2022 5 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: The M2 flare was fairly eruptive. Now to wait and see if the CME is Earth directed. fairly? 6 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: The M2 flare was fairly eruptive. Now to wait and see if the CME is Earth directed. Isnt the region a bit too far west now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 1 minute ago, MinYoongi said: Isnt the region a bit too far west now? The eruption was on the east side of the region, so that should help some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted August 17, 2022 Author Share Posted August 17, 2022 6 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: The eruption was on the east side of the region, so that should help some. so we could expect a glancing blow maybe? is it too far west for a full hit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 3 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: so we could expect a glancing blow maybe? is it too far west for a full hit? It does look like there is a full halo in the C2 imagery, the bulk going south-southwest and the rest dull. Now we just need to see how fast it is, but I won't be able to see until after work. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted August 17, 2022 Author Share Posted August 17, 2022 Just now, Jesterface23 said: It does look like there is a full halo in the C2 imagery, the bulk going south-southwest and the rest dull. Now we just need to see how fast it is, but I won't be able to see until after work. So Full halo but glancing blow? or full hit? Sorry. im confused by all the phenomena and terms and stuff lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 Just now, MinYoongi said: So Full halo but glancing blow? or full hit? To be determined, but the odds are a glancing blow or somewhere between the two. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted August 17, 2022 Author Share Posted August 17, 2022 22 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: To be determined, but the odds are a glancing blow or somewhere between the two. sorry but how did u determine the trajectory and where the bulk is going? there is no new lasco data for me.. because i remember @Flareguy18 saying stereo is not good to determine it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HalfFeralHuman Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 Just now, MinYoongi said: sorry but how did u determine the trajectory and where the bulk is going? there is no new lasco data for me.. Check out the GOES SUVI imager on the NOAA website. It's animated, so it's easier to see the movement of CME shockwaves. It's not exact though, it just gives an impression. You don't get long though, the animations aren't left up. It does look pretty earth-bound to me though, perhaps glancing to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted August 17, 2022 Author Share Posted August 17, 2022 1 minute ago, HalfFeralHuman said: It does look pretty earth-bound to me though, perhaps glancing to the south. So to specify, you think it will be full hit rather than glancing blow? im still trying to learn how to determine where an AR has to be to fire earthbound CME or when its too far west etc etc.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HalfFeralHuman Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 Just now, HalfFeralHuman said: It does look pretty earth-bound to me though, perhaps glancing to the south. Actually, scratch that! checking SDO's 1600A channel suggests a more northern trajectory. I don't know what to make of this one, but I figure it's a least a near-miss. A problem is that the narrower/more direct the blast, the longer it takes to widen out enough so SOHO can get a good take on it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted August 17, 2022 Author Share Posted August 17, 2022 Just now, HalfFeralHuman said: Actually, scratch that! checking SDO's 1600A channel suggests a more northern trajectory. I don't know what to make of this one, but I figure it's a least a near-miss. A problem is that the narrower/more direct the blast, the longer it takes to widen out enough so SOHO can get a good take on it. isnt more northern good? Im soo confused lmao! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HalfFeralHuman Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 2 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: So to specify, you think it will be full hit rather than glancing blow? im still trying to learn how to determine where an AR has to be to fire earthbound CME or when its too far west etc etc.. My guess is that this one will be a fairly full-on hit. I have to be clear that that's just my guess however. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted August 17, 2022 Author Share Posted August 17, 2022 Oh, Okay.. Well i dont know. @Jesterface23 said the bulk goes south/southwest. how do you determine the full on hit and northern stuff? Can you maybe clip it? Im looking at suvi but it does not really look going north.. maybe im missing it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flareguy18 Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 Hmmm, where is everyone getting their imagery? LASCO is still not in range for me yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted August 17, 2022 Author Share Posted August 17, 2022 2 minutes ago, Flareguy18 said: Hmmm, where is everyone getting their imagery? LASCO is still not in range for me yet. SDO/Suvi/Stereo. Thats why i said i dont know how to say something will hit/miss based on stereo.. can you maybe take a look and give a guess? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HalfFeralHuman Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 3 minutes ago, HalfFeralHuman said: im still trying to learn how to determine where an AR has to be to fire earthbound CME or when its too far west etc etc.. Honestly I don't think it's that simple. I think it depends on how things are flowing where we have no way to see. I get my early guesswork from looking at how CME blasts appear to spread immediately after eruption, coupled with the shape of things before. It's all unprovable and and the moment just using intuition to try and find patterns. I don't have anything more concrete yet, but I do believe there may be a way to make an 'early warning' model from it. 1 minute ago, MinYoongi said: can you maybe take a look and give a guess? Yeah. That southward blast is pretty obvious. The two things I'm focussed on is the right pointing stream and what appears to be a switchback under. I don't know how that's going to play out. Sorry, I guess I'm not giving much here. For ref, I'm looking at this image: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted August 17, 2022 Author Share Posted August 17, 2022 @Flareguy18 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flareguy18 Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 Emerging on C3... I think this is the most impressive one we have seen yet in this latest string of CMEs. I initially did not see any ejecta directed more to the N on C2, but C3 is showing a more complete picture. I'm actually wondering if these are multiple CMEs in very quick succession. The northern ejecta almost looks like it's a hair ahead of the denser stuff in the SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solarflaretracker200 Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 Whoa nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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