MinYoongi Posted August 15, 2022 Author Share Posted August 15, 2022 The growth has slowed down a bit. how are the delta/s evolving? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solarflaretracker200 Posted August 16, 2022 Share Posted August 16, 2022 (edited) BGD Edited August 16, 2022 by Solarflaretracker200 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozy Posted August 16, 2022 Share Posted August 16, 2022 (edited) 7 hours ago, MinYoongi said: The growth has slowed down a bit. how are the delta/s evolving? Decayed/shrunk Edited August 16, 2022 by mozy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mogh, Lord of Blood Posted August 16, 2022 Share Posted August 16, 2022 I've Heard that we're gonna get hit by a X flare class, is it going to be really Bad ? What Can be the damages ? And also what's that story with delta ? And more important what are the odds for such an event ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newbie Posted August 16, 2022 Share Posted August 16, 2022 44 minutes ago, Mogh, Lord of Blood said: I've Heard that we're gonna get hit by a X flare class, is it going to be really Bad ? What Can be the damages ? And also what's that story with delta ? And more important what are the odds for such an event ? Hello Mogh, LOB, There has been no X flare recorded at the time of writing. Overall probability of an X flare is shown as 10% but IMO the odds are probably a little lower as the complexity of the active region most likely to produce an X flare 3078 has simplified somewhat. Delta is the most complex of sunspot classifications and it occurs when the penumbra of a sunspot is inside the penumbra of an opposite polarity sunspot. A good explanation is given in the earlier posts of this thread, particularly page 2. The dangers of an X flare have been covered extensively on SWL. Check out the help topics at the top of the home page and read through the material posted on your own thread about CME's, because ultimately it's the CME that is produced from an X flare that will impact the Earth...please remember though not all flares produce CME's and not all CME's are Earth directed. Newbie 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozy Posted August 16, 2022 Share Posted August 16, 2022 (edited) Decent M-class flare reaching M 5.0, seems like there's minor ejecta leaving with this one aswell. Edited August 16, 2022 by mozy 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted August 16, 2022 Author Share Posted August 16, 2022 17 minutes ago, mozy said: Decent M-class flare reaching M 5.0, seems like there's minor ejecta leaving with this one aswell. Oh, i thought its in decay. Ive read it on twitter yesterday - is the CH to the north of the AR surpressing it's Ejections/CME's southward? PS: pretty mint picture of the flare 😃 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3gMike Posted August 16, 2022 Share Posted August 16, 2022 5 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: Oh, i thought its in decay. I don't think so. It is currently shown as BGD with a pretty large area. Let's hope it keeps on giving ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted August 16, 2022 Author Share Posted August 16, 2022 4 minutes ago, 3gMike said: I don't think so. It is currently shown as BGD with a pretty large area. Let's hope it keeps on giving ! Okay because @Newbie and @mozy said it has lost some of its complexity. My SDO (im on mobile rn) is extremely blurred so i cant have a look for myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozy Posted August 16, 2022 Share Posted August 16, 2022 14 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: Okay because @Newbie and @mozy said it has lost some of its complexity. My SDO (im on mobile rn) is extremely blurred so i cant have a look for myself. The region overall is not in a decay really, but the deltas shrunk a bit in size. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newbie Posted August 16, 2022 Share Posted August 16, 2022 (edited) 54 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: Okay because @Newbie and @mozy said it has lost some of its complexity. My SDO (im on mobile rn) is extremely blurred so i cant have a look for myself. The latest image shows a new delta spot forming. Therefore it's still capable of something. It did appear to decline earlier but that can occur with compact sunspots. N. Edited August 16, 2022 by Newbie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted August 16, 2022 Author Share Posted August 16, 2022 1 hour ago, Newbie said: The latest image shows a new delta spot forming. Therefore it's still capable of something. It did appear to decline earlier but that can occur with compact sunspots. N. Where? I dont see it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mogh, Lord of Blood Posted August 16, 2022 Share Posted August 16, 2022 Because of the possible next events of the new sunspot, what are the risks if a Kp9 was to happen it's only growing and i dont know how Bad for Internet and electronic stuff it Can be... usually events like that are rare but yet it's look like it's happening right now, unless i'm wrong and they are not a lot of things to be afraid of Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RajSim Posted August 16, 2022 Share Posted August 16, 2022 15 hours ago, RajSim said: Hello, Am a newbie! Have been following the forum since last Sep. Fortunate to have had witnessed the spectacle at Maine on a solo aurora hunting trip on Nov 4th 2021, thanks to this forum. Ever since , I want to take the family (we live in Boston) for them to experience. But, that's yet to work out. I see the Sun nicely warming up in time for the start of the season. Curios to see the two successive M flares from 3078 today would give us a show. Usually, I wait for the verdict to be made by expert moderators. Thought would learn something How do I link the solar flares and if there is an associated CME to the list under as captured by CACTUS (under Latest CME link). The onset times in UTC don't seem to match. I know there is lag in knowing if there was an associated CME and would it be earth directed, as we have to wait for LASCO. Thanks. @Orneno @MinYoongi - if you could shed some light on this, would be much appreciated. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted August 16, 2022 Author Share Posted August 16, 2022 28 minutes ago, Mogh, Lord of Blood said: Because of the possible next events of the new sunspot, what are the risks if a Kp9 was to happen it's only growing and i dont know how Bad for Internet and electronic stuff it Can be... usually events like that are rare but yet it's look like it's happening right now, unless i'm wrong and they are not a lot of things to be afraid of All is fine. You need to watch less fearmongering. I can only repeat what i already said 22 minutes ago, RajSim said: @Orneno @MinYoongi - if you could shed some light on this, would be much appreciated. Thanks. Please open a seperate thread for this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solarflaretracker200 Posted August 16, 2022 Share Posted August 16, 2022 (edited) Is it weird that fear mongers get me excited? They are like: “big CME coming. It’s Gonna be real big” and I’m just like: “BRING IT ON” i think I’m just weird Lmao Edited August 16, 2022 by Solarflaretracker200 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted August 16, 2022 Author Share Posted August 16, 2022 I dont really wanna talk about them in *my* thread.. So anyways, i dont really see new deltas? am i blind again? Im comparing the magnetic layout with the sunspots and i dont see anything new. it looks not as good as yesterday to me " developed quickly becoming a very compact and complex region. Major flares are possible as long as the multiple magnetic delta structures remain" on Solen. So far so good, but to me the delta to the right (the only i see btw) seems to be shrinking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozy Posted August 16, 2022 Share Posted August 16, 2022 This region is unfortunately already breaking apart 😕 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted August 16, 2022 Author Share Posted August 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, mozy said: This region is unfortunately already breaking apart 😕 yes. I compared my screenshots from yesterday with today, thats why i was confused. About the M5 Flare Mozy, we dont have updated coronagraüphs but you mentioned Ejecta. Do you think a CME couldve been ejected? You said "minimal" and I tend to agree because it was a rather impulsive flare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newbie Posted August 16, 2022 Share Posted August 16, 2022 1 hour ago, MinYoongi said: Where? I dont see it? In this pic it looks weaker than it was when I originally posted. Delta areas don't always last long. N. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted August 16, 2022 Author Share Posted August 16, 2022 22 minutes ago, Newbie said: In this pic it looks weaker than it was when I originally posted. Delta areas don't always last long. N. Ah, okay. I didnt see it as a delta because i dont really think they share a penumbra? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newbie Posted August 16, 2022 Share Posted August 16, 2022 13 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: Ah, okay. I didnt see it as a delta because i dont really think they share a penumbra? Yeah Min, understood it has faded in the four hours since I posted. I must say I was surprised it popped an M5 flare though. N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozy Posted August 16, 2022 Share Posted August 16, 2022 50 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: yes. I compared my screenshots from yesterday with today, thats why i was confused. About the M5 Flare Mozy, we dont have updated coronagraüphs but you mentioned Ejecta. Do you think a CME couldve been ejected? You said "minimal" and I tend to agree because it was a rather impulsive flare. Looked minor so I don't think It's anything to talk about, but cannot be sure ofc 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted August 16, 2022 Author Share Posted August 16, 2022 7 minutes ago, mozy said: Looked minor so I don't think It's anything to talk about, but cannot be sure ofc okay! What about the region "breaking apart" ? Is it the drifting apart i mentioned seeing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozy Posted August 16, 2022 Share Posted August 16, 2022 5 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: okay! What about the region "breaking apart" ? Is it the drifting apart i mentioned seeing? Yes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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