Archmonoth Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 (edited) 7 hours ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said: Sc 23 max is 8 months after the northern flipped🤩 Perhaps this cycle could also have 8+ months after the fields flip to reach max? You seem to be determined to ignore this as a possibility, which comes across as slimly. Why ignore this as a possibility for the current solar cycle? 2 hours ago, Philalethes Bythos said: Good observation. Generally speaking I'd assume the spectral flux density to be a somewhat more accurate measure of Solar activity, since the SSN doesn't actually tell you about the strength or activity of the sunspots. This 100% Edited January 28, 2023 by Archmonoth 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Silver Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 Leamon posted this today, overlapping cycles 23 and 25… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3gMike Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 9 hours ago, David Silver said: Leamon posted this today, overlapping cycles 23 and 25… That image has been adjusted to make the cycles appear to match. The true comparison can be found here... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bean Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 Hello , Bob Leamon's chart is based on Terminator to Terminator so of course it will be shifted compared to a chart based on the SSN ( that's Smoothed Sunspot Number , Sunspot is one word ! . Its SN for Sunspot Number and SSN for Smoothed Sunspot Number ! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3gMike Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 (edited) 2 hours ago, Bean said: Hello , Bob Leamon's chart is based on Terminator to Terminator so of course it will be shifted compared to a chart based on the SSN ( that's Smoothed Sunspot Number , Sunspot is one word ! . Its SN for Sunspot Number and SSN for Smoothed Sunspot Number ! If you check the axis on Leamon's chart you will see that it is marked SSN even though the data looks like it is unsmoothed. The chart I presented shows both forms. Edited January 29, 2023 by 3gMike expanded comment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bean Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 Yes it should be SN V2 , however the point of the chart as posted and explained on twitter is the progression of the monthly mean of SC25 compared with that of SC23 when lined up with the Terminator events of SC22 and SC24. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Archmonoth Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 On 1/29/2023 at 7:21 AM, Bean said: Yes it should be SN V2 , however the point of the chart as posted and explained on twitter is the progression of the monthly mean of SC25 compared with that of SC23 when lined up with the Terminator events of SC22 and SC24. So, the point of reference is the terminator, rather than the solar minimum? So, basing the cycle comparison on solar min it does not line up, but basing it on terminator it does line up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 1 hour ago, Archmonoth said: So, the point of reference is the terminator, rather than the solar minimum? So, basing the cycle comparison on solar min it does not line up, but basing it on terminator it does line up? I believe that was what Leamon meant, yes. As he clarifies here: The corresponding minima preceding the two cycles are in August 1996 and December 2019 based on the SSN, but as you can see from the dates calculated for the terminator events the SC22 terminator arrived only 1 year and 7 months after that, while the SC24 terminator arrived 2 years after that (both as the cycles are ramping up in activity). This is what accounts for the shifting of 5 months. Whether or not this is a better way of comparing them or not remains to be seen, but I know Scott and Bob are quite enthusiastic about it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3gMike Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 6 hours ago, Philalethes Bythos said: I believe that was what Leamon meant, yes. As he clarifies here: The corresponding minima preceding the two cycles are in August 1996 and December 2019 based on the SSN, but as you can see from the dates calculated for the terminator events the SC22 terminator arrived only 1 year and 7 months after that, while the SC24 terminator arrived 2 years after that (both as the cycles are ramping up in activity). This is what accounts for the shifting of 5 months. Whether or not this is a better way of comparing them or not remains to be seen, but I know Scott and Bob are quite enthusiastic about it. I think it might be interesting to discuss the Terminator theory in a bit more detail. I will start a new topic for that purpose. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted February 2, 2023 Share Posted February 2, 2023 Im getting lost yet again here. I guess I will have to do more reviewing. Frankly, I assumed ( erroneously) that the terminator was the precise ending of a particular cycle independent of typical “ overlap”. Guess I should’ve read more closely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick P.A. Geryl Posted February 2, 2023 Author Share Posted February 2, 2023 SN for January 143.6 lower then the SN from February 2014… 146.1 Flux is higher. Waiting final comparison… seems an anomaly… High resolution sunspots maybe can clarify… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick P.A. Geryl Posted February 2, 2023 Author Share Posted February 2, 2023 BIG NEWS! The northern polar field has also flipped! Both fields were negative at the height of the cycle as I stated! Normally you can’t have a higher month then this, unless something totally abnormal happens… 2023:01:15_21h:07m:13s -10N -24S 7Avg 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted February 2, 2023 Share Posted February 2, 2023 13 minutes ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said: The northern polar field has also flipped! Both fields were negative at the height of the cycle as I stated! Normally you can’t have a higher month then this, unless something totally abnormal happens… Wouldn't the 20nhz low pass filtered values be the important numbers? We're all focused on the first peak, what if a second turns out to be the one to watch. heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick P.A. Geryl Posted February 2, 2023 Author Share Posted February 2, 2023 (edited) 20 minuten geleden, Jesterface23 zei: Wouldn't the 20nhz low pass filtered values be the important numbers? We're all focused on the first peak, what if a second turns out to be the one to watch. heh I already debunked the 20nhz low pass filter as junk in my paper. Totally useless. The most important factor is that they BOTH FLIPPED IN A VERY SHORT TIME PERIOD. A lot faster then the 4 previous cycles! MOST IMPORTANT I predicted the flip of the southern and the northern field! Big fail for all the NASA boys… Edited February 2, 2023 by Patrick P.A. Geryl 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted February 2, 2023 Share Posted February 2, 2023 7 minutes ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said: The most important factor is that they BOTH FLIPPED IN A VERY SHORT TIME PERIOD. A lot faster then the 4 previous cycles! Looks almost the same amount of time as solar cycle 23. But that's all I can check before headed off to work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Archmonoth Posted February 2, 2023 Share Posted February 2, 2023 2 hours ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said: I predicted the flip of the southern and the northern field! Big fail for all the NASA boys… You started "predicting" it last August 11th and kept "predicting" it until this January. You originally posted the measurements of the field claiming it is "close to flipping", which is not a prediction. You are being quite sleazy about your predictions, which is something NASA doesn't do. For anyone else reading, just start at page 1 of the thread from August 11th: 2 hours ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said: It looks like the southern field is close to a first flip… afterwards it flips back, etcetera… To be watched the next weeks… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted February 2, 2023 Share Posted February 2, 2023 I see a lot of triumphant parading and little answering of unanswered question. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3gMike Posted February 2, 2023 Share Posted February 2, 2023 6 hours ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said: BIG NEWS! The northern polar field has also flipped! Both fields were negative at the height of the cycle as I stated! Normally you can’t have a higher month then this, unless something totally abnormal happens… 2023:01:15_21h:07m:13s -10N -24S 7Avg Sadly, you continue to cherry-pick numbers that you think support your case. Looking at the WSO data since you initiated this thread we see a more nuanced story.... Aug 08 - Aug 18 both +ve (S field flipped) Note: Data not available Sep 7 - Oct 17 Oct 27 - Nov 16 both +ve (S field flipped) Dec 16 both +ve (S field flipped) Jan 15 both -ve (N field flipped) So you seem to be saying that both fields being positive is insignificant, but both being negative indicates we have hit maximum. That needs to be explained - clearly and scientifically ! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 2 hours ago, 3gMike said: That needs to be explained - clearly and scientifically ! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick P.A. Geryl Posted February 3, 2023 Author Share Posted February 3, 2023 4 uren geleden, Philalethes Bythos zei: Working on it. Probably new thread: Solar Max has Passed! The highest 10.7 Solar flux month of cycle 25 was in January 2023. We have several reasons for this… 1. Flipping of the two poles 2. Calculation that cycle 25 would be around 10 percent lower then cycle 24 3. The 13 month smoothed high will be before the end of 2023 Conclusion: January 2023 was the highest Solar flux month from cycle 25 I hear Scott grinding his teeth🤔 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 8 minutes ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said: Working on it. Probably new thread: Solar Max has Passed! The highest 10.7 Solar flux month of cycle 25 was in January 2023. We have several reasons for this… 1. Flipping of the two poles 2. Calculation that cycle 25 would be around 10 percent lower then cycle 24 3. The 13 month smoothed high will be before the end of 2023 Conclusion: January 2023 was the highest Solar flux month from cycle 25 I hear Scott grinding his teeth🤔 Patrick, please use common sense. You have it somewhere in you. We need to wait for the smoothed sunspot number and there is no official date for solar maximum yet. Don't repeat jumping to conclusions like in the time before you took a deep dive into space weather. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 3 hours ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said: Working on it. Probably new thread: Solar Max has Passed! The highest 10.7 Solar flux month of cycle 25 was in January 2023. We have several reasons for this… 1. Flipping of the two poles 2. Calculation that cycle 25 would be around 10 percent lower then cycle 24 3. The 13 month smoothed high will be before the end of 2023 Conclusion: January 2023 was the highest Solar flux month from cycle 25 I hear Scott grinding his teeth🤔 Starting a new thread with a new baseless claim without actually answering any of the unanswered questions from this one doesn't seem like "working on it" to me. I strongly doubt Solar maximum has passed, and see no reason why more reasonable predictions of maximum in ~1 year wouldn't be true. What I find most annoying is that you don't give any reasoning for why you think this is the case apart from cherry-picking the cycles that fit the prediction and ignoring the cycles that don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick P.A. Geryl Posted February 3, 2023 Author Share Posted February 3, 2023 2 uren geleden, Jesterface23 zei: Patrick, please use common sense. You have it somewhere in you. We need to wait for the smoothed sunspot number and there is no official date for solar maximum yet. Don't repeat jumping to conclusions like in the time before you took a deep dive into space weather. I forgot another indicator… Said to Jan months ago that when 1K crosses the line with the solar flux… the high is in… There is a 6 month time lag… so this is now🤣 Mind: lower cycle then cycle 24 calculated… So can be used. That are at least 4 indicators… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 18 minutes ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said: Mind: lower cycle then cycle 24 calculated… So can be used. Except for the fact that all observations so far have contradicted the estimates associated with that prediction. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick P.A. Geryl Posted February 3, 2023 Author Share Posted February 3, 2023 8 minuten geleden, Philalethes Bythos zei: Except for the fact that all observations so far have contradicted the estimates associated with that prediction. Lower 13 month SSN… The previous 6 cycles were in a 5.9 percent range🤔 No other theory was even close to these calculations… The Astrophysical Journal almost published it… Will try again when they see it is right… (PDF) Calculating the Exact Strength of Solar Cycle 25 using 365 Days Smoothing https://www.researchgate.net/publication/356556167_Calculating_the_Exact_Strength_of_Solar_Cycle_25_using_365_Days_Smoothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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