Patrick P.A. Geryl Posted December 13, 2023 Author Share Posted December 13, 2023 more fuel that Solar max has passed🤩 2023:11:01_21h:07m:13s 14N 7S 4Avg 20nhz filt: 4Nf 2Sf 1Avgf 2023:11:11_21h:07m:13s 4N 12S -4Avg 20nhz filt: 4Nf 3Sf 1Avgf 2023:11:21_21h:07m:13s 4N 14S -5Avg 20nhz filt: 5Nf 4Sf 1Avgf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post 3gMike Posted December 13, 2023 Popular Post Share Posted December 13, 2023 1 hour ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said: more fuel that Solar max has passed🤩 2023:11:01_21h:07m:13s 14N 7S 4Avg 20nhz filt: 4Nf 2Sf 1Avgf 2023:11:11_21h:07m:13s 4N 12S -4Avg 20nhz filt: 4Nf 3Sf 1Avgf 2023:11:21_21h:07m:13s 4N 14S -5Avg 20nhz filt: 5Nf 4Sf 1Avgf Patrick, rather than persistently posting tables that mean nothing, why not take the time to look at past cycles and learn what variations there have been between the location of maximum and the zero crossing point of polar fields. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick P.A. Geryl Posted December 13, 2023 Author Share Posted December 13, 2023 15 minuten geleden, 3gMike zei: Patrick, rather than persistently posting tables that mean nothing, why not take the time to look at past cycles and learn what variations there have been between the location of maximum and the zero crossing point of polar fields. I did that extensively. You can find them on my Researchgate page😊🤩 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Philalethes Posted December 13, 2023 Popular Post Share Posted December 13, 2023 (edited) 3 hours ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said: more fuel that Solar max has passed🤩 2023:11:01_21h:07m:13s 14N 7S 4Avg 20nhz filt: 4Nf 2Sf 1Avgf 2023:11:11_21h:07m:13s 4N 12S -4Avg 20nhz filt: 4Nf 3Sf 1Avgf 2023:11:21_21h:07m:13s 4N 14S -5Avg 20nhz filt: 5Nf 4Sf 1Avgf You do understand that the scientific method works by testing hypothesis against observation, right? Until we have the actual observation of when Solar maximum really occurs for SC25, which we won't have until in several years, then you can't make a conclusive statement like this and claim that it has any scientific validity. What you're doing is like trying to measure which month of a given year it rains the most, and then after a particularly rainy day in May concluding, "yep, May is the rainiest month, no doubt about it!", and not bothering to measure the rest of the year. That's not science. Edited December 13, 2023 by Philalethes correction to analogy 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick P.A. Geryl Posted December 18, 2023 Author Share Posted December 18, 2023 it goes the wrong way for a strong solar cycle… 2023:11:11_21h:07m:13s 4N 12S -4Avg 20nhz filt: 4Nf 4Sf -0Avgf 2023:11:21_21h:07m:13s 4N 14S -5Avg 20nhz filt: 5Nf 5Sf -0Avgf 2023:12:01_21h:07m:13s -2N 23S -13Avg 20nhz filt: 5Nf 6Sf -0Avgf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arjemma Posted December 18, 2023 Share Posted December 18, 2023 17 minutes ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said: it goes the wrong way for a strong solar cycle… 2023:11:11_21h:07m:13s 4N 12S -4Avg 20nhz filt: 4Nf 4Sf -0Avgf 2023:11:21_21h:07m:13s 4N 14S -5Avg 20nhz filt: 5Nf 5Sf -0Avgf 2023:12:01_21h:07m:13s -2N 23S -13Avg 20nhz filt: 5Nf 6Sf -0Avgf What do you mean? Isn't it to early to even take these conclusions? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Philalethes Posted December 18, 2023 Popular Post Share Posted December 18, 2023 27 minutes ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said: it goes the wrong way for a strong solar cycle… 2023:11:11_21h:07m:13s 4N 12S -4Avg 20nhz filt: 4Nf 4Sf -0Avgf 2023:11:21_21h:07m:13s 4N 14S -5Avg 20nhz filt: 5Nf 5Sf -0Avgf 2023:12:01_21h:07m:13s -2N 23S -13Avg 20nhz filt: 5Nf 6Sf -0Avgf Looks like it's going quite well to me: Lately the fields have even been moving apart a bit, delaying the crossing even further, and the 70°+ field in particular is quite noteworthy, doing this to an even greater extent. Unless this will be the first time we see two cycles in a row with the same polarity, those fields are eventually going to start moving across each other, and I personally suspect that it's around that time we'll see the maximum. Looking at the entirety of the HMI data, which still sadly only contains the previous cycle and not anything before that, we can at least see how it looks compared to what happened back then: Of course we don't know if there really is a clear-cut connection between what we're seeing here and the timing of the maximum, but I really suspect there is. You're also of the opinion that there is a connection between the fields flipping and maximum, I just don't think your notion of when that is is accurate, due to the WSO data not being as detailed as the HMI data. Of course it remains to be seen how things play out, so I'm not going to call anything yet, but as I've mentioned before and above I think we'll see the most activity around when the 70°+ field crosses over and the averages start to move to the opposite poles. Showing the same with just the averages and including the 50°+ field too gives me that impression too: I will say that you could make the case for a first peak possibly having occurred, but given the current development I don't think that's the case; I'm more open to that possibility at least. But even if that's the case the second peak might be significantly larger, like in SC24. And it could of course also be that we're still headed towards a more simultaneous large "single" peak too. As always, time will tell. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted December 19, 2023 Share Posted December 19, 2023 (edited) 19 hours ago, Philalethes said: Looks like it's going quite well to me: Lately the fields have even been moving apart a bit, delaying the crossing even further, and the 70°+ field in particular is quite noteworthy, doing this to an even greater extent. Unless this will be the first time we see two cycles in a row with the same polarity, those fields are eventually going to start moving across each other, and I personally suspect that it's around that time we'll see the maximum. Looking at the entirety of the HMI data, which still sadly only contains the previous cycle and not anything before that, we can at least see how it looks compared to what happened back then: Of course we don't know if there really is a clear-cut connection between what we're seeing here and the timing of the maximum, but I really suspect there is. You're also of the opinion that there is a connection between the fields flipping and maximum, I just don't think your notion of when that is is accurate, due to the WSO data not being as detailed as the HMI data. Of course it remains to be seen how things play out, so I'm not going to call anything yet, but as I've mentioned before and above I think we'll see the most activity around when the 70°+ field crosses over and the averages start to move to the opposite poles. Showing the same with just the averages and including the 50°+ field too gives me that impression too: I will say that you could make the case for a first peak possibly having occurred, but given the current development I don't think that's the case; I'm more open to that possibility at least. But even if that's the case the second peak might be significantly larger, like in SC24. And it could of course also be that we're still headed towards a more simultaneous large "single" peak too. As always, time will tell. Yes, @Philalethesa VERY large single peak containing enough sunspots in 1k and 2k resolutions to push 10.7 into the 300 region would be most welcomed by our amateur radio community at large. Edit: For today, I’m content to see close to 200 SFI reported by NRC this Christmas which would be a nice present for us stateside Hams and it appears possible. Merry Christmas to all. Mike/ Hagrid Edited December 19, 2023 by hamateur 1953 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick P.A. Geryl Posted January 9 Author Share Posted January 9 It keeps going the wrong way for the strong cycle enthusiasts😱 2023:12:01_21h:07m:13s -2N 23S -13Avg 20nhz filt: 5Nf 7Sf -1Avgf 2023:12:11_21h:07m:13s 6N 16S -5Avg 20nhz filt: 6Nf 8Sf -1Avgf 2023:12:21_21h:07m:13s -5N 15S -10Avg 20nhz filt: 6Nf 9Sf -1Avgf 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 (edited) 36 minutes ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said: It keeps going the wrong way for the strong cycle enthusiasts😱 2023:12:01_21h:07m:13s -2N 23S -13Avg 20nhz filt: 5Nf 7Sf -1Avgf 2023:12:11_21h:07m:13s 6N 16S -5Avg 20nhz filt: 6Nf 8Sf -1Avgf 2023:12:21_21h:07m:13s -5N 15S -10Avg 20nhz filt: 6Nf 9Sf -1Avgf Yep. I wish activity could pick up. I don't like that there hasn't been a daily sunspot number above 50 this month. Edited January 9 by Jesterface23 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 (edited) 2 hours ago, Jesterface23 said: Yep. I wish activity could pick up. I don't like that there hasn't been a daily sunspot number above 50 this month. Yeah @Jesterface23 I getcha. 152 sunspot number just is weak. 176 sfi ain’t even high enough for us hams to allow 50 mhz to open. It needs improvement for sure!! Haha!! 🤣🤣 Patrick still doesn’t seem to understand that sunspots and sfi wax and wane on their way to solar max. Clearly @tniickck does. He is confused by Patricks lack of understanding it seems to me. Edited January 9 by hamateur 1953 Clarifying why I find humor here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post 3gMike Posted January 9 Popular Post Share Posted January 9 4 hours ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said: It keeps going the wrong way for the strong cycle enthusiasts😱 2023:12:01_21h:07m:13s -2N 23S -13Avg 20nhz filt: 5Nf 7Sf -1Avgf 2023:12:11_21h:07m:13s 6N 16S -5Avg 20nhz filt: 6Nf 8Sf -1Avgf 2023:12:21_21h:07m:13s -5N 15S -10Avg 20nhz filt: 6Nf 9Sf -1Avgf Patrick, you are clearly not seriously analysing the available data. Zero crossing of polar fields does not provide a reliable indication of when maximum will occur. If you truly believe that you have data that allows you to forecast the progress of a solar cycle then please post a plot showing how you believe the cycle will progress over the next year. If you are unable to produce the plot just send me your forecast and I will plot it for you. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 (edited) How many times have the fields” flipped” in SC 25 ? Three? Results on earth are mainly what us radio amateurs care about actually. And so far SC 25 has exceeded all of the predictions and is very likely to continue to do so through this year, regardless of Patricks wishes. A few of us enjoy watching Aurora also. We just may see another 10486 or McMath 11976 this SC and maybe this time we will get a negative bz too. Never know, and this time I will be ready and not fall asleep when that epic CME hits! Edit: It was a long time back that @3gMike first replied to my request for a comparison of sc19 vs sc25 clearly showing this cycle to fall far short of my hopes for a repeat of 19. The first rise ramp gives us all a big clue of what we can expect, and although this is a disappointing cycle, as are ALL when compared to 19, it is clearly doing more than even I expected. It is also interesting to me that the 142 mean sunspot solar maximum for Nov 2023 that was forecast on Solen earlier in 2023 was very close in number. Although clearly not actual Solar Maximum Edited January 9 by hamateur 1953 Afterthoughts 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick P.A. Geryl Posted February 1 Author Share Posted February 1 more bad news for Solar max… Degrowth in full force😱 2023:12:11_21h:07m:13s 6N 16S -5Avg 20nhz filt: 3Nf 8Sf -3Avgf 2023:12:21_21h:07m:13s -5N 15S -10Avg 20nhz filt: 3Nf 9Sf -3Avgf 2023:12:31_21h:07m:13s -23N 5S -14Avg 20nhz filt: 3Nf 10Sf -3Avgf 2024:01:10_21h:07m:13s -23N 7S -15Avg 20nhz filt: 4Nf 11Sf -4Avgf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Philalethes Posted February 1 Popular Post Share Posted February 1 35 minutes ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said: more bad news for Solar max… Degrowth in full force😱 2023:12:11_21h:07m:13s 6N 16S -5Avg 20nhz filt: 3Nf 8Sf -3Avgf 2023:12:21_21h:07m:13s -5N 15S -10Avg 20nhz filt: 3Nf 9Sf -3Avgf 2023:12:31_21h:07m:13s -23N 5S -14Avg 20nhz filt: 3Nf 10Sf -3Avgf 2024:01:10_21h:07m:13s -23N 7S -15Avg 20nhz filt: 4Nf 11Sf -4Avgf Those numbers look exactly like those midway through 2013, almost a full year before the Solar maximum of SC24: So, what you're saying is that Solar maximum of SC25 will be in roughly one year? Cool, I guess we'll see some of that "degrowth" in a year or two, then. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 (edited) incidentally Degrowth ain’t a real word a decent non-obfuscating human would use, Patrick. Try decline or grab a thesaurus ( not extinct yet) for a sensible English synonym, please. Haha. Respectfully…. Mike/Hagrid Edited February 1 by hamateur 1953 Messed up 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tniickck Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 1 hour ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said: more bad news for Solar max… Degrowth in full force😱 2023:12:11_21h:07m:13s 6N 16S -5Avg 20nhz filt: 3Nf 8Sf -3Avgf 2023:12:21_21h:07m:13s -5N 15S -10Avg 20nhz filt: 3Nf 9Sf -3Avgf 2023:12:31_21h:07m:13s -23N 5S -14Avg 20nhz filt: 3Nf 10Sf -3Avgf 2024:01:10_21h:07m:13s -23N 7S -15Avg 20nhz filt: 4Nf 11Sf -4Avgf 🤦🤦 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 (edited) Here's how close things are. If we can keep on the upward trend, we should have a new solar maximum candidate for November. Edited February 1 by Jesterface23 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 40 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: Here's how close things are. If we can keep on the upward trend, we should have a new solar maximum candidate for November. Yeah, definitely won't take much to beat it. I assume you picked 121 since it's the lowest whole-numbered average SN that will cause us to surpass it within the next six months, and with just one more average SN (122 instead) we'll be beating it in October already too, as you've probably seen for yourself. I also checked for the next months as well, and with 129 we'll beat it in September, whereas to beat it in August already we'd need a lot more at 151 (only for one month though, but I don't think that's nearly as likely as an average of 129 over two months). We're probably going to have to surpass while the months of June and July are still in the running average though, if the average ends up lower than 121 over these coming four months then I think it would be more fair to say that June would likely represent either the first major peak of the cycle or the beginning of a plateau. These coming few months will really be crucial to determine where SC25 is headed! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solar_Marcel Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 10 hours ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said: more bad news for Solar max… Degrowth in full force😱 2023:12:11_21h:07m:13s 6N 16S -5Avg 20nhz filt: 3Nf 8Sf -3Avgf 2023:12:21_21h:07m:13s -5N 15S -10Avg 20nhz filt: 3Nf 9Sf -3Avgf 2023:12:31_21h:07m:13s -23N 5S -14Avg 20nhz filt: 3Nf 10Sf -3Avgf 2024:01:10_21h:07m:13s -23N 7S -15Avg 20nhz filt: 4Nf 11Sf -4Avgf I dont understand what you want to say with that? Did you ever check any other data? Can anyone tell me what this meaningless chart here means? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post tniickck Posted February 1 Popular Post Share Posted February 1 7 minutes ago, Solar_Marcel said: I dont understand what you want to say with that? Did you ever check any other data? Can anyone tell me what this meaningless chart here means? he is just trying to find more fuel for his self-advertisement (I guess so) with his statements and nearly useless graphs of the solar hemispheres. it was the same in January, he insisted that it was the peak and then the June peak occured. i found it just as a pluralism of opinions but the way he ignores nearly all the facts and proofs that the cycle is not done yet with a 99% chance makes me annoyed 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 (edited) @tniickck believe me, you are in good company if that helps! perhaps he will quiet down somewhat since that “ peak” that remains Jan Alvestad’s SC 25 maximum candidate was the “ peak” of 2023. This summer, or perhaps a bit earlier I am still looking forward to the Solar Max that likely won’t break any records but should exceed last June/July numbers and hopefully give us some A index levels over 150 too. We are a bit short of those cool events imo too. Mike/Hagrid Edited February 1 by hamateur 1953 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solar_Marcel Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 17 hours ago, tniickck said: he is just trying to find more fuel for his self-advertisement (I guess so) with his statements and nearly useless graphs of the solar hemispheres. it was the same in January, he insisted that it was the peak and then the June peak occured. i found it just as a pluralism of opinions but the way he ignores nearly all the facts and proofs that the cycle is not done yet with a 99% chance makes me annoyed Thanks. As i am not that active here and do not read all of the Posts, i do not am that well infomed about Patrick. And yes, sometimes its very annoying when someone isnt at all referencing to facts 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick P.A. Geryl Posted April 6 Author Share Posted April 6 update polar fields… conclusion: to many wrong values… 2023:12:21_21h:07m:13s -5N 15S -10Avg 20nhz filt: 2Nf 8Sf -3Avgf 2023:12:31_21h:07m:13s -23N 5S -14Avg 20nhz filt: 2Nf 9Sf -3Avgf 2024:01:10_21h:07m:13s -23N 7S -15Avg 20nhz filt: 3Nf 9Sf -3Avgf 2024:01:20_21h:07m:13s -11N 9S -10Avg 20nhz filt: 3Nf 10Sf -4Avgf 2024:01:30_21h:07m:13s XXXN XXXS XXXAvg 20nhz filt: XXXNf XXXSf XXXAvgf 2024:02:09_21h:07m:13s XXXN XXXS XXXAvg 20nhz filt: XXXNf XXXSf XXXAvgf 2024:02:19_21h:07m:13s XXXN XXXS XXXAvg 20nhz filt: XXXNf XXXSf XXXAvgf 2024:02:29_21h:07m:13s XXXN XXXS XXXAvg 20nhz filt: XXXNf XXXSf XXXAvgf 2024:03:10_21h:07m:13s -5N -12S 4Avg 20nhz filt: 4Nf 15Sf -6Avgf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted April 6 Share Posted April 6 1 hour ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said: update polar fields… conclusion: to many wrong values… 2023:12:21_21h:07m:13s -5N 15S -10Avg 20nhz filt: 2Nf 8Sf -3Avgf 2023:12:31_21h:07m:13s -23N 5S -14Avg 20nhz filt: 2Nf 9Sf -3Avgf 2024:01:10_21h:07m:13s -23N 7S -15Avg 20nhz filt: 3Nf 9Sf -3Avgf 2024:01:20_21h:07m:13s -11N 9S -10Avg 20nhz filt: 3Nf 10Sf -4Avgf 2024:01:30_21h:07m:13s XXXN XXXS XXXAvg 20nhz filt: XXXNf XXXSf XXXAvgf 2024:02:09_21h:07m:13s XXXN XXXS XXXAvg 20nhz filt: XXXNf XXXSf XXXAvgf 2024:02:19_21h:07m:13s XXXN XXXS XXXAvg 20nhz filt: XXXNf XXXSf XXXAvgf 2024:02:29_21h:07m:13s XXXN XXXS XXXAvg 20nhz filt: XXXNf XXXSf XXXAvgf 2024:03:10_21h:07m:13s -5N -12S 4Avg 20nhz filt: 4Nf 15Sf -6Avgf If you ever need rain for no data, just say NASCAR is coming. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now