Southern field close to flipping?

[Philalethes]

30 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

What everyone else reads:

"Whether the first peak (and maybe solar max) will be in June or July"

 

What you read:

"Whether the first peak (and maybe solar max) will be in June or July"

Yeah, and not just that, but previous single-peaked cycles have also seen similar monthly drops in the SN as we've seen a couple of times now without displaying any noticeable peak in the SSN after the fact; in other words, we don't know at all yet whether this will even be a first peak.

[Jesterface23]

 

7 minutes ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:

you forgot😊
 

We won't know for a while yet when the final peak will be, however, it is interesting that the peak of SC25 could be as early as June 2023. The next update will likely be posted here in January 2024.

Why do you say the below then when he didn't even specifically say it? We do need to wait about 2 more years to see where the official solar maximum stands.

1 hour ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:

Jan Alvestad agrees with me that the peak has passed.

Edited December 8, 2023 by Jesterface23

[hamateur 1953]

Well Jan isn’t saying anything I wouldn’t expect at this point.  By the end of January 2024 we will have a much better idea of when the final peak will arrive.  Within two weeks or so, I honestly expect our sunspot numbers and SFI to improve significantly.  As it did recently.  A much higher peak in May or June 2024 will be welcomed by most of us. 

[Patrick P.A. Geryl]

3 minuten geleden, hamateur 1953 zei:

Well Jan isn’t saying anything I wouldn’t expect at this point.  By the end of January 2024 we will have a much better idea of when the final peak will arrive.  Within two weeks or so, I honestly expect our sunspot numbers and SFI to improve significantly.  As it did recently.  A much higher peak in May or June 2024 will be welcomed by most of us. 

My theory to spot the minimum can also be applied for the maximum. It is even more reliable for the maximum🤩 I will have the last word, not NASA, just like 3 years ago😊

[hamateur 1953]

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/lrsp-2015-4#Fig26   Well I certainly don’t wish to make this more contentious than it is from your perspective Patrick.  I enjoy this hobby and don’t mind being wrong too much.  
I respectfully suggest you take some time and read the excellent link @3gMikeposted to assist me and others in predicting and understanding the dynamics of our solar cycles.  It’s really good stuff.  I’ll post it here.  Follow link at top Patrick. Good luck. 

Edited December 8, 2023 by hamateur 1953

[Patrick P.A. Geryl]

18 minuten geleden, hamateur 1953 zei:

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/lrsp-2015-4#Fig26   Well I certainly don’t wish to make this more contentious than it is from your perspective Patrick.  I enjoy this hobby and don’t mind being wrong too much.  
I respectfully suggest you take some time and read the excellent link @3gMikeposted to assist me and others in predicting and understanding the dynamics of our solar cycles.  It’s really good stuff.  I’ll post it here.  Follow link at top Patrick. Good luck. 

I did a long time ago. Meanwhile I discovered 2 separate theories for the maximum.

They give May-July. So deal with it. Remember… I had the minimum long before NASA

(PDF) The Adjusted Solar Flux & the Start of Solar Cycle 25


https://www.researchgate.net/publication/341370351_The_Adjusted_Solar_Flux_the_Start_of_Solar_Cycle_25
 

[Philalethes]

9 minutes ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:

They give May-July. So deal with it.

I'll deal with it in a few years when we see how the cycle actually turns out; you know, the actual scientific approach. Until then I'll continue to suspect that your hypothesis is incorrect, but we won't know until after the fact.

[hamateur 1953]

I also recall that last year ( prior to July s first peak) you proclaimed that solar max had passed.  And your theory recently gave you lower solar flux just days before we hit 194. SFI.  You were puzzled.  I was pleasantly surprised.  Just illustrating here for the record that your theory, whatever it may be likely needs some major revisions.  

[tniickck]

2 hours ago, hamateur 1953 said:

  Within two weeks or so, I honestly expect our sunspot numbers and SFI to improve significantly.  

we have a big newly formed region incoming on the farside and it (or less possible old 3492) produced a powerful and fast CME recently. with all the aforementioned, you may be right with your expectations

[hamateur 1953]

Owe ya a like buddy.  That’s more good news!  Haha. Let’s hope it hangs on until it shows its face on this side!! Was that concerning the  somewhat slower cme and the subject you posted yesterday?    

59 minutes ago, tniickck said:

we have a big newly formed region incoming on the farside and it (or less possible old 3492) produced a powerful and fast CME recently. with all the aforementioned, you may be right with your expectations

By slower, I meant compared to the monster that let loose last March on the far side. Edit. To clarify just why I expect solar flux and sunspot numbers to improve. 
pretty simple. The conglomeration of four ARs in the north should return or its successor.  And I have been noting that overall the ARs seem to be lasting longer, although maybe with somewhat less spectacular displays.  

Edited December 8, 2023 by hamateur 1953
Typo and clarifications

[Bluestar91]

Hey just a quick question, how many times is normal for the field to flip per solar cycle?

many thanks

[Philalethes]

2 hours ago, Bluestar91 said:

Hey just a quick question, how many times is normal for the field to flip per solar cycle?

many thanks

Well, the trouble in posing that question is that even exactly what it means for the field to flip isn't really well-defined, since there are different parts of the field to consider and different smoothing and filtering methods; if you look at some of my comments on page 10 of this thread you can e.g. see some alternatives to the WSO filtered average field we're currently discussing, and look at how those parts of the field behaved back in 2014 with roughly a month of smoothing, in which case they can cross 0 a few times before moving on permanently to minimum.

However, if we're talking about the WSO filtered average, then it's filtered in such a way as to produce a smooth curve that only crosses once (or at least that's been the case for every crossing so far). That's ultimately also reflective of the overall field behavior, because any flipping "back and forth" would only occur around zero anyway, before it fully flips into the state observed around the minima. For the WSO data that's actually still yet to happen, as you can see for yourself on the WSO polar field data page (latest measurement at the very bottom, filtered average at the very right, still positive).

So in simple terms: it only flips once; but there's definitely more to the story for those who are interested in delving into the details.

Edited December 8, 2023 by Philalethes
page correction

[hamateur 1953]

10 hours ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:

My theory to spot the minimum can also be applied for the maximum. It is even more reliable for the maximum🤩 I will have the last word, not NASA, just like 3 years ago😊

Ha ha🤣Patrick you must really have it in for NASA!!   Since you have declared last summer as the peak for SC 25 you are out of bullets from now on it looks like. In two years or so we will all look back on these posts as an example of what not to do as a speculative observer.  

[Newbie]

10 hours ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:

My theory to spot the minimum can also be applied for the maximum. It is even more reliable for the maximum🤩 I will have the last word, not NASA, just like 3 years ago😊

Dear Patrick why is having the last word so important?
Surely as the scientific method goes  each new piece of information is added to the foundation of knowledge that has gone before. 
There may never be a final word on the understanding of matters such as these, as new discoveries are made, sometimes even dispensing with things that were held to be true in the past.

IMHO the best teachers are those who impart their knowledge to others generously in the hope that they will add to those things they have learned.

N.

 

 

[hamateur 1953]

Well said @Newbie!!!

[Orilander]

On 12/8/2023 at 11:05 PM, Newbie said:

Dear Patrick why is having the last word so important?
Surely as the scientific method goes  each new piece of information is added to the foundation of knowledge that has gone before. 
There may never be a final word on the understanding of matters such as these, as new discoveries are made, sometimes even dispensing with things that were held to be true in the past.

IMHO the best teachers are those who impart their knowledge to others generously in the hope that they will add to those things they have learned.

N.

 

 

Because he wants to, clearly.

[hamateur 1953]

On 12/8/2023 at 1:26 PM, Philalethes said:

Well, the trouble in posing that question is that even exactly what it means for the field to flip isn't really well-defined, since there are different parts of the field to consider and different smoothing and filtering methods; if you look at some of my comments on page 10 of this thread you can e.g. see some alternatives to the WSO filtered average field we're currently discussing, and look at how those parts of the field behaved back in 2014 with roughly a month of smoothing, in which case they can cross 0 a few times before moving on permanently to minimum.

However, if we're talking about the WSO filtered average, then it's filtered in such a way as to produce a smooth curve that only crosses once (or at least that's been the case for every crossing so far). That's ultimately also reflective of the overall field behavior, because any flipping "back and forth" would only occur around zero anyway, before it fully flips into the state observed around the minima. For the WSO data that's actually still yet to happen, as you can see for yourself on the WSO polar field data page (latest measurement at the very bottom, filtered average at the very right, still positive).

So in simple terms: it only flips once; but there's definitely more to the story for those who are interested in delving into the details.

Very good points! and thanks for the link.  Watching the poles dither about while we approach solar maximum is interesting to me now that I have at least a marginal understanding of its decision making process so to speak.. haha.  Doesn’t mean I understand WHY it does what it does at all unfortunately!! 

[Capricopia]

BOM in Australia have tagged November 2023 as Solar Max with 130 Smoothed SSN below the 146 of SC24

Cycle Solar_Min Solar_Max Max_ min to max years - months

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

25    2019 Dec         2023 Nov    130.0           3.9          47

https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Solar/1/6

 

Average AP peaked at 14.48 in February, international sunspot number peaked at 160.5 in June, smoothed international sunspot number peaked at 134 in November.  Solar Polar field strength went to zero in October.

 

http://wso.stanford.edu/Polar.html

 

[Philalethes]

23 minutes ago, Capricopia said:

BOM in Australia have tagged November 2023 as Solar Max with 130 Smoothed SSN below the 146 of SC24

Seems premature to me, although it's certainly a possibility. Would be interested to know what methodology they're using to determine that, as personally I suspect maximum will be coming somewhere between April and October of the coming year (2024).

Also, it sounds like a mixup between SN and SSN there, not sure if that's yours or the agency in Australia's; 146.1 was the highest average SN of any individual month in SC24, that was already broken by SC25 in June this year (2023) with an average SN of 160.5. The peak SSN of SC24 was only 116.4, which we already passed a while ago with February of 2023 having an SSN of 117.8, and the latest SSN from May of 2023 was at 123.9.

Edited December 10, 2023 by Philalethes
parenthesis

[tniickck]

1 hour ago, Capricopia said:

BOM in Australia have tagged November 2023 as Solar Max with 130 Smoothed SSN below the 146 of SC24

Cycle Solar_Min Solar_Max Max_ min to max years - months

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

25    2019 Dec         2023 Nov    130.0           3.9          47

https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Solar/1/6

 

Average AP peaked at 14.48 in February, international sunspot number peaked at 160.5 in June, smoothed international sunspot number peaked at 134 in November.  Solar Polar field strength went to zero in October.

 

http://wso.stanford.edu/Polar.html

 

if it's real it's so disappointing

though i dont really think it is true, every day of this Sun's inactive period which started in August i start to believe more and more

[Philalethes]

6 minutes ago, tniickck said:

if it's real it's so disappointing

though i dont really think it is true, every day of this Sun's inactive period which started in August i start to believe more and more

Yeah, that'd be quite the letdown. I really don't buy it though, at least not yet. One of my hypotheses is that we're likely to see the most activity when the most polar components of the field flip over, i.e. that we should be keeping an eye on e.g. the 70°+ cap as measured by HMI; we sadly only have HMI data for one single previous flip, namely that of SC24, but for that one that was indeed the case, with the crossing of the 70°+ cap field coinciding almost exactly with maximum. Hard to say anything conclusive from the abysmal sample size of 1 though, could be that different parts of the field flipping correspond to maximum each time, depending e.g. on the rapidity with which the different parts do so, or other complex and/or chaotic factors. Definitely looking forward to comparing the SC24 and SC25 flips in the HMI data after the fact.

[helios]

Don't they always tag a past month as solar max?
From archive.org:

[tniickck]

Just now, helios said:

Don't they always tag a past month as solar max?
From archive.org:

lol

[hamateur 1953]

Perhaps they define solar max from an entirely different perspective..  They should collaborate with our resident Patrick imho.  Solar Mad Max??

There it is in print!! Shazzam!!

Edited December 11, 2023 by hamateur 1953
Gomer had to weigh in

[Newbie]

Referring to the Australian BOM graph of the current solar cycle above, the plots are for observed monthly sunspot number (thin yellow), observed smoothed monthly sunspot number (thick turquoise) and predicted smoothed monthly sunspot number (magenta crosses). 
The magenta crosses are a prediction and the turquoise line hasn’t been updated since before June this year.

There is no such declaration of Solar Max being passed, on their site and I believe it would be unprofessional on their behalf to do so.

6 hours ago, helios said:

Don't they always tag a past month as solar max?
From archive.org:

I haven’t actually been looking at this aspect of their site but perhaps they do just this as part of their presentation not necessarily plotting or declaring solar maximum per se, just providing a prediction of what they think may happen.

N.

Edited December 11, 2023 by Newbie
Clarification