Southern field close to flipping?

[hamateur 1953]

Well yet another opportunity to show how little I know regarding spot behaviour and am hoping either @3gMikeor @Philalethes can set me straight on spot behaviours after dipole reversal has taken place and magnetic strength begins to increase on the downslope of any SC.  @Newbie has assisted me greatly in grokking Scotts stuff and clearing up several misconceptions id had.  The question is:   Do the spots ever pass the approximate 90 degree relationship to the leading spots as the magnetic strength increases towards the end of cycle?  Perhaps eventually changing places and becoming a leading spot??  Tnx. Mike/Hagrid. 

[Philalethes]

12 minutes ago, hamateur 1953 said:

Well yet another opportunity to show how little I know regarding spot behaviour and am hoping either @3gMikeor @Philalethes can set me straight on spot behaviours after dipole reversal has taken place and magnetic strength begins to increase on the downslope of any SC.  @Newbie has assisted me greatly in grokking Scotts stuff and clearing up several misconceptions id had.  The question is:   Do the spots ever pass the approximate 90 degree relationship to the leading spots as the magnetic strength increases towards the end of cycle?  Perhaps eventually changing places and becoming a leading spot??  Tnx. Mike/Hagrid. 

It's a great question, but I don't think that's the case; as the regions get closer and closer to the equator, the angle between them in general becomes smaller and smaller as far as I'm aware (Joy's law), i.e. instead of moving towards 90 degrees and flipping, they move closer to 0 degrees so that the distinction between what's leading and what's trailing is even easier to tell, they "flatten" in other words. They appear to do this all the way until they disappear in the termination event ("terminator"), which typically seems to happen after the sunspots belonging to the next cycle have started appearing at high latitudes with reversed polarities, something I know Scott emphasizes a lot.

I think the reason for the angle is due to the stretching effect that's been touched upon a few times, i.e. something like this:

But why and how the entire field then eventually flips is much more complicated, even more so why there appears to be two simultaneously active modes of the field (which is obvious during the transition between cycles as they overlap for a while, but I believe Scott hypothesizes that the second mode is still present otherwise too in the internal field). And by "much more complicated" I don't mean "I totally understand it but just can't explain it to you", but rather "my brain hurts just trying to understand the physics of it", heh.

[hamateur 1953]

Thanks @Philalethes that was a great help! As it makes sense from a magnetic point of view and agrees with an article I must have read fifty years ago.  As a Ham I have followed the SC for a very long time, however we are only alert usually for a high- latitude pair with reversed polarity to herald the end of the “ doldrums “ so to speak.  As far as I am aware, this is the first time a prediction has even come close to “ nailing” it. Exciting times indeed!  Mike/Hagrid.   Edit: I also was unaware that in general the spots begin to diminish in physical size as we near solar max.  Credit: @Newbie

Edited August 9, 2023 by hamateur 1953
More stuff

[Patrick P.A. Geryl]

2023:08:23_21h:07m:13s 29N 19S 5Avg 20nhz filt: -2Nf -5Sf 2Avgf 2023:09:02_21h:07m:13s 15N 15S 0Avg 20nhz filt: -1Nf -5Sf 2Avgf 2023:09:12_21h:07m:13s 19N 16S 2Avg 20nhz filt: -1Nf -4Sf 2Avgf 2023:09:22_21h:07m:13s 22N 15S 3Avg 20nhz filt: -0Nf -4Sf 2Avgf 2023:10:02_21h:07m:13s 22N 10S 6Avg 20nhz filt: 0Nf -3Sf 2Avgf 2023:10:12_21h:07m:13s 9N 14S -3Avg 20nhz filt: 1Nf -2Sf 2Avgf

2023:08:23_21h:07m:13s    29N   19S    5Avg   20nhz filt:   -2Nf   -5Sf    2Avgf
2023:09:02_21h:07m:13s    15N   15S    0Avg   20nhz filt:   -1Nf   -5Sf    2Avgf
2023:09:12_21h:07m:13s    19N   16S    2Avg   20nhz filt:   -1Nf   -4Sf    2Avgf
2023:09:22_21h:07m:13s    22N   15S    3Avg   20nhz filt:   -0Nf   -4Sf    2Avgf
2023:10:02_21h:07m:13s    22N   10S    6Avg   20nhz filt:    0Nf   -3Sf    2Avgf
2023:10:12_21h:07m:13s     9N   14S   -3Avg   20nhz filt:    1Nf   -2Sf    2Avgf

 

Edited October 31, 2023 by Patrick P.A. Geryl

[3gMike]

4 hours ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:

2023:08:23_21h:07m:13s 29N 19S 5Avg 20nhz filt: -2Nf -5Sf 2Avgf 2023:09:02_21h:07m:13s 15N 15S 0Avg 20nhz filt: -1Nf -5Sf 2Avgf 2023:09:12_21h:07m:13s 19N 16S 2Avg 20nhz filt: -1Nf -4Sf 2Avgf 2023:09:22_21h:07m:13s 22N 15S 3Avg 20nhz filt: -0Nf -4Sf 2Avgf 2023:10:02_21h:07m:13s 22N 10S 6Avg 20nhz filt: 0Nf -3Sf 2Avgf 2023:10:12_21h:07m:13s 9N 14S -3Avg 20nhz filt: 1Nf -2Sf 2Avgf

2023:08:23_21h:07m:13s    29N   19S    5Avg   20nhz filt:   -2Nf   -5Sf    2Avgf
2023:09:02_21h:07m:13s    15N   15S    0Avg   20nhz filt:   -1Nf   -5Sf    2Avgf
2023:09:12_21h:07m:13s    19N   16S    2Avg   20nhz filt:   -1Nf   -4Sf    2Avgf
2023:09:22_21h:07m:13s    22N   15S    3Avg   20nhz filt:   -0Nf   -4Sf    2Avgf
2023:10:02_21h:07m:13s    22N   10S    6Avg   20nhz filt:    0Nf   -3Sf    2Avgf
2023:10:12_21h:07m:13s     9N   14S   -3Avg   20nhz filt:    1Nf   -2Sf    2Avgf

 

Graphic representation of  cycle to date ......

Looking at the filtered data you can see that the Northern field has been negative for much of this year, but is now heading back towards a positive state at a similar rate to the Southern field, which has yet to reverse polarity. It looks like we may have to wait a bit longer before the fields cross over, and then move off in opposite directions.

Considering the unfiltered data we can see that both fields moved negative and crossed zero around December 2022 / Jan 2023, at a similar time to the rapid growth in sunspots and 10.7cm flux. Similarly, when both crossed zero, moving in a positive direction, around June / July 2023 we saw what looks like the current maximum for this cycle.

[tniickck]

1 minute ago, 3gMike said:

Graphic representation of  cycle to date ......

Looking at the filtered data you can see that the Northern field has been negative for much of this year, but is now heading back towards a positive state at a similar rate to the Southern field, which has yet to reverse polarity. It looks like we may have to wait a bit longer before the fields cross over, and then move off in opposite directions.

Considering the unfiltered data we can see that both fields moved negative and crossed zero around December 2022 / Jan 2023, at a similar time to the rapid growth in sunspots and 10.7cm flux. Similarly, when both crossed zero, moving in a positive direction, around June / July 2023 we saw what looks like the current maximum for this cycle.

does it mean we reached the maximum for this cycle? 

[3gMike]

Just now, tniickck said:

does it mean we reached the maximum for this cycle? 

Probably not. You can see that the unfiltered fields are about to move through zero again, so we could see some growth in Dec / Jan similar to what we saw last year. No guarantee though.

[hamateur 1953]

Sfi climbing again steadily despite small sunspot numbers. 147 at penticton suggesting a positive climb from only 119 ten days ago!  Very encouraging to us Hams. 

53 minutes ago, 3gMike said:

Probably not. You can see that the unfiltered fields are about to move through zero again, so we could see some growth in Dec / Jan similar to what we saw last year. No guarantee though.

 

[Patrick P.A. Geryl]

2023:10:02_21h:07m:13s    22N   10S    6Avg   20nhz filt:    1Nf   -1Sf    1Avgf
2023:10:12_21h:07m:13s     8N   14S   -3Avg   20nhz filt:    2Nf   -0Sf    1Avgf
2023:10:22_21h:07m:13s     9N    9S    0Avg   20nhz filt:    3Nf    0Sf    1Avgf
2023:11:01_21h:07m:13s    14N    7S    4Avg   20nhz filt:    4Nf    1Sf    1Avgf
2023:11:11_21h:07m:13s     4N   12S   -4Avg   20nhz filt:    4Nf    2Sf    1Avgf

[Patrick P.A. Geryl]

Op 1/12/2023 om 15:08, Patrick P.A. Geryl zei:

2023:10:02_21h:07m:13s    22N   10S    6Avg   20nhz filt:    1Nf   -1Sf    1Avgf
2023:10:12_21h:07m:13s     8N   14S   -3Avg   20nhz filt:    2Nf   -0Sf    1Avgf
2023:10:22_21h:07m:13s     9N    9S    0Avg   20nhz filt:    3Nf    0Sf    1Avgf
2023:11:01_21h:07m:13s    14N    7S    4Avg   20nhz filt:    4Nf    1Sf    1Avgf
2023:11:11_21h:07m:13s     4N   12S   -4Avg   20nhz filt:    4Nf    2Sf    1Avgf

Remark: if the average stays negative, Solar max has passed🤔😉

Edited December 4, 2023 by Patrick P.A. Geryl

[Philalethes]

22 minutes ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:

Remark: if the average stays negative, Solar max has passed🤔😉

That's still not how it works. Also, that's still just the southern average field; but even if it were the overall average field it still wouldn't necessarily imply that max has passed. Is it possible? Yes. Is it a definite fact? Absolutely not, not even close.

[Newbie]

1 hour ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:

Remark: if the average stays negative, Solar max has passed🤔😉

Negative polar magnetic fields can be a part of the solar cycle dynamics, but their presence alone may not be sufficient to definitively declare that the solar maximum has been reached.

As you well know a combination of factors, including sunspot numbers, solar flares, and other magnetic field observations, are used to ascertain the phase of the solar cycle.

Let us just wait to see how this SC pans out in the coming months.

N.

[hamateur 1953]

1 hour ago, Newbie said:

Negative polar magnetic fields can be a part of the solar cycle dynamics, but their presence alone may not be sufficient to definitively declare that the solar maximum has been reached.

As you well know a combination of factors, including sunspot numbers, solar flares, and other magnetic field observations, are used to ascertain the phase of the solar cycle.

Let us just wait to see how this SC pans out in the coming months.

N.

And for Christmas i’d like 200 plus sfi for a week or so,  OK??   I ain’t askin’ for much.  I said lawd take me downtown i’m jus lookin for more flux.  Zz top. 

Edited December 4, 2023 by hamateur 1953
Memory of higher sfis

[Newbie]

1 minute ago, hamateur 1953 said:

And for Christmas i’d like 200 plus sfi for a week or so,  OK?? 

Ho ho ho🎅🎅🎅

N.

[tniickck]

3 hours ago, hamateur 1953 said:

And for Christmas i’d like 200 plus sfi for a week or so,  OK?? 

we all should ask Santa for this. hopefully, for Catholic Christmas (cause Orthodox is celebrated on 7th Jan) 

[Jesterface23]

Positive.. Negative.. Positive.. Negative.. Positive.. Negative.. Positive.. Negative.. Surely it can't repeat again.

[hamateur 1953]

2 hours ago, tniickck said:

we all should ask Santa for this. hopefully, for Catholic Christmas (cause Orthodox is celebrated on 7th Jan) 

No kidding? I never knew this.  Heck now I owe ya a like @tniickck   Thanks for weighing in with that.  And Merry Christmas to ya!  Mike/ Hagrid 

[tniickck]

2 hours ago, hamateur 1953 said:

No kidding? I never knew this.  Heck now I owe ya a like @tniickck   Thanks for weighing in with that.  And Merry Christmas to ya!  Mike/ Hagrid 

yep, seriously, we celebrate Christmas in Russia on 7th January. Merry Christmas to you too! 

[Jesterface23]

12 hours ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:

Remark: if the average stays negative, Solar max has passed🤔😉

Able to check the numbers now. December's SN must be 87.9 for May's 13 month SSN to tie June.

[hamateur 1953]

Thank you and I expect it to comfortably exceed that figure.  We probably will have another lull in 10.7 and with any luck, those regions that  just left us will return in time with some associates to make all of our days. Except Mr Geryl perhaps.  

19 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

Able to check the numbers now. December's SN must be 87.9 for May's 13 month SSN to tie June.

 

Edited December 5, 2023 by hamateur 1953
Typo

[LunarLights58]

[hamateur 1953]

Well. Gee.  Perhaps that prediction has a better location in our memes area.  And we aren’t even at solar max yet.  Hahaha.  

Edited December 5, 2023 by hamateur 1953

[Patrick P.A. Geryl]

Jan Alvestad agrees with me that the peak has passed. See his comments on his daily updates
 

look surprised😉🤩🤣

Edited December 8, 2023 by Patrick P.A. Geryl

[Jesterface23]

1 hour ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:

Jan Alvestad agrees with me that the peak has passed. See his comments on his daily updates
 

look surprised😉🤩🤣

What everyone else reads:

"Whether the first peak (and maybe solar max) will be in June or July"

 

What you read:

"Whether the first peak (and maybe solar max) will be in June or July"

[Patrick P.A. Geryl]

29 minuten geleden, Jesterface23 zei:

What everyone else reads:

"Whether the first peak (and maybe solar max) will be in June or July"

 

What you read:

"Whether the first peak (and maybe solar max) will be in June or July"

you forgot😊
 

We won't know for a while yet when the final peak will be, however, it is interesting that the peak of SC25 could be as early as June 2023. The next update will likely be posted here in January 2024.